Collapse of China

[oldschooler]

CCP needs to collapse either financially or politically otherwise they will attack Taiwan risking WW3.No way  CCP can overcome USA, Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan to take Taiwan. Those first three nations secret subs & planes will take out CCP invasion planes and boats out at sea. CCP likely to await outcome of Russia’s apparent invasion of Ukraine  efore prepping their Taiwan attack.

[AussieBob]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/12/09/china-evergrande-default/

"Fitch Ratings said in a statement that it had placed the embattled home builder and two of its subsidiaries, Hengda Real Estate Group and Tianji Holding, into “restricted default.” The designation means it has missed a debt payment but hasn’t entered into bankruptcy or other process that would suspend operations."

"Another Chinese developer, Kaisa Group Holdings, also was given a restricted default rating Thursday. It failed to repay senior notes totaling roughly $400 million that were due Tuesday, Fitch said in a statement. Its shares were suspended from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Wednesday, according to Reuters."

This just keeps getting better and better.

[AussieBob]

4 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

CCP needs to collapse either financially or politically otherwise they will attack Taiwan risking WW3.No way  CCP can overcome USA, Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan to take Taiwan. Those first three nations secret subs & planes will take out CCP invasion planes and boats out at sea. CCP likely to await outcome of Russia’s apparent invasion of Ukraine  efore prepping their Taiwan attack.

It is a big risk - but I say bring it on CCP and lets see what happens. Sometimes the only way to remove a cancer is to cut it out - taking some good stuff too is part of the cost.  But I believe CCP will back down under the might of the Alliance - including Australia who will do our small part too.

[PBS]

4 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Whose cheering for the default

Some posters in this topic

[Stardust]

1 minute ago, AussieBob said:

It is a big risk - but I say bring it on CCP and lets see what happens. Sometimes the only way to remove a cancer is to cut it out - taking some good stuff too is part of the cost.  But I believe CCP will back down under the might of the Alliance - including Australia who will do our small part too.

Around a week ago I made some links to reports that the total of debts is 5 trillion usd in this sector, this numbers showed clearly the situation and there is no way to bail that out. They announced they will put 180 billion now extra into the economy and put down the bank rates for cash reserves for banks. So everything is very clear now about the situation and how desperate they are now. And now they come into trouble with the EU over Taiwan, too and that means they come in trouble with the Nato. Trouble from East and West. They will hace no chance against Nato Countries and highly develkpped armies with nuclear missiles and so much in Europe and Scandinavia, Baltic and including Nato members USA, Canada. Plus from the east Japan, Australia, New Zealand, India. Now for this region France and germany make an military alliance with Japan and India. German already sailed their destroyer through the south China sea to Japan to develop their partnership further in the region. French are permanently with their navy and nuclear attack submarines in the region. To brought them into trouble with so much developed nations it is incredible.

[PBS]

42 minutes ago, Stardust said:

It is unclear for you as before, too. For others not who look into the reality and numbers and not any politburo fairy tales. For the others and analysts this now was clear already weeks ago. You were with the deniers, so if you is not clear you have to speak for yourself!

Great to know you have access to PRC politburo - lol. Never denial, (I have pushed back against your hubris) just suggesting wait for final outcomes of current situation in PRC. There are a number of main stream analysts with opinion PRC government will step in to minimise any damage; as I said just wait a while to see how matters eventuate.

Edited December 10, 2021 by PBS

[PBS]

25 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

including Australia who will do our small part too.

Send a frigate?

[NCC1701A]

"Gentlemen! There is no fighting in the war room!"

 

[NCC1701A]

30 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

including Australia who will do our small part too.

Pine Gap. 

[Stardust]

5 minutes ago, PBS said:

Great to know you have access to PRC politburo - lol. Never denial, (I have pushed back against your hubris) just suggesting wait for final outcomes of current situation in PRC. There are a number of main stream analysts with opinion PRC government will step in to minimise any damage; as I said just wait a while to see how matters eventuate.

There are numbers out there they not care about any ideology or even analysts, it is just about simple math. And therefore it doesn't matter what the prc government says the numbers will not change! It is just simple like that. For others who cannot read numbers abd understand them they have to rely on what the government will say and some will even believe everything. 

[oldschooler]

16 minutes ago, Stardust said:

Around a week ago I made some links to reports that the total of debts is 5 trillion usd in this sector, this numbers showed clearly the situation and there is no way to bail that out. They announced they will put 180 billion now extra into the economy and put down the bank rates for cash reserves for banks. So everything is very clear now about the situation and how desperate they are now. And now they come into trouble with the EU over Taiwan, too and that means they come in trouble with the Nato. Trouble from East and West. They will hace no chance against Nato Countries and highly develkpped armies with nuclear missiles and so much in Europe and Scandinavia, Baltic and including Nato members USA, Canada. Plus from the east Japan, Australia, New Zealand, India. Now for this region France and germany make an military alliance with Japan and India. German already sailed their destroyer through the south China sea to Japan to develop their partnership further in the region. French are permanently with their navy and nuclear attack submarines in the region. To brought them into trouble with so much developed nations it is incredible.

Taiwan Defence: USA, Japan, S.Korea, Taiwan ( support: AusNZ/ UK/ France) SUFFICIENT

Europe Defence: NATO ( period) SUFFICIENT

Ukraine Defence: NATO Diplomatic & Economic Sanctions (nothing Military); Ukraine ( support: Poland / Baltics) SUFFICIENT

When China Inevitably Collapses Soon Financially, CCP will attempt & fail to lash out against Taiwan or support Russia against Ukraine / West. Covered & Sorted (as above). China Military will then takeover. China will then splinter into Warlord Areas like FSU. China Menace Over.

 

 

 

[ThailandRyan]

8 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

Taiwan Defence: USA, Japan, S.Korea, Taiwan ( support: AusNZ/ UK/ France) SUFFICIENT

Europe Defence: NATO ( period) SUFFICIENT

Ukraine Defence: NATO Diplomatic & Economic Sanctions (nothing Military); Ukraine ( support: Poland / Baltics) SUFFICIENT

When China Inevitably Collapses Soon Financially, CCP will attempt & fail to lash out against Taiwan or support Russia against Ukraine / West. Covered & Sorted (as above). China Military will then takeover. China will then splinter into Warlord Areas like FSU. China Menace Over.

ergo Wag the Dog strategy, and do what Japan did in the 30's (Alliance with Germany) by joining with Russia risking complete and utter carnage and WW-3

Edited December 10, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[Stardust]

4 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

ergo Wag the Dog strategy, and do what Japan did in the 30's (Alliance with Germany) by joining with Russia risking complete and utter carnage and WW-3

Japan made already an alliance with the German Army, thats why the warship Bayern (Bavaria) sailed through the south china sea to Japan 2 weeks ago. But both also allied with USA and many other allied countries. 

[Stardust]

1 hour ago, AussieBob said:

It is a big risk - but I say bring it on CCP and lets see what happens. Sometimes the only way to remove a cancer is to cut it out - taking some good stuff too is part of the cost.  But I believe CCP will back down under the might of the Alliance - including Australia who will do our small part too.

Yes there are many allies now from west to east.

[oldschooler]

55 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

ergo Wag the Dog strategy, and do what Japan did in the 30's (Alliance with Germany) by joining with Russia risking complete and utter carnage and WW-3

difference being China & Russia are not competent military powers whereas Germany and Japan were of course top notch. Luckily for all, CCP & Putin Oligarchs basic interest is Power not Expansion. They know their Power is gone the minute they go nuclear so any conflict will be conventional and even their bloated egos must realise they have no chance against Nato and East Asia.Russia with it’s rust- bucket conscript forces and China with zero combat experience and near zero force projection beyond its own borders.

[AussieBob]

2 hours ago, PBS said:

Send a frigate?

A couple !!  And maybe a few submarines too 

[AussieBob]

2 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

Pine Gap. 

Communications will be extremely important 

[Stardust]

53 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

difference being China & Russia are not competent military powers whereas Germany and Japan were of course top notch. Luckily for all, CCP & Putin Oligarchs basic interest is Power not Expansion. They know their Power is gone the minute they go nuclear so any conflict will be conventional and even their bloated egos must realise they have no chance against Nato and East Asia.Russia with it’s rust- bucket conscript forces and China with zero combat experience and near zero force projection beyond its own borders.

And technical abilities/ engineering far behind. All is by tech transfer they cannot build any watshio or aircraft alone. Their ships are with mtu tech from germany thats why a german fregate can sail alone with a submarine through the south china sea they every screw of the chinese navy ships and their capabilities.

https://www.dw.com/en/german-engine-technology-found-in-chinese-warships-report/a-59740301

 

[AussieBob]

2 hours ago, oldschooler said:

Taiwan Defence: USA, Japan, S.Korea, Taiwan ( support: AusNZ/ UK/ France) SUFFICIENT

Europe Defence: NATO ( period) SUFFICIENT

Ukraine Defence: NATO Diplomatic & Economic Sanctions (nothing Military); Ukraine ( support: Poland / Baltics) SUFFICIENT

When China Inevitably Collapses Soon Financially, CCP will attempt & fail to lash out against Taiwan or support Russia against Ukraine / West. Covered & Sorted (as above). China Military will then takeover. China will then splinter into Warlord Areas like FSU. China Menace Over.

Not 100% with you, but your outcome is something I can definitely see happening - just like what happened to USSR - breaking up to smaller States. There are almost 60 separate ethnicities in China and there has been many conflicts going back in time - right now they are all forced together and controlled - not unexpected if a few local local areas call for an autonomous State if China does collapse. 

[Stardust]

No bail out because the total of the debts in real estate sector is 5 trillion usd, so it is impossible even with evergrande alone because kaisa and others are already following

 

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-tries-manage-global-message-051338124.html

 

[dj230]

Really interesting to see this unfold, especially with fed testimony next week in USA.

Once interest rates go up, will cause an issue to restructure debt

[Stardust]

Evergrande is soon just a side show there are debts of around 2 trillion usd of their speed train projects they cannot pay back. This will in the coming weeks on the table. The collapse goes on from many sides.

[Stardust]

Will remind many on the soviet union business model

 

 

[TiT]

I'll donate to the 'lets sink China' Go Fund Me, I'm sick of those clowns.

[kellio48]

10 hours ago, AussieBob said:

It is a big risk - but I say bring it on CCP and lets see what happens. Sometimes the only way to remove a cancer is to cut it out - taking some good stuff too is part of the cost.  But I believe CCP will back down under the might of the Alliance - including Australia who will do our small part too.

China could crush Australia under it's heel without even hearing the crunch and would love to do so particularly in light of Australia having opened their arms to them over the past 30 years or so anyway in letting China buy up so much of Australian farm real-estate after the Australian government made it so difficult for Australian farmers to be able to survive and were forced to walk off the land opening the doors for China to walk in and grab it.