Collapse of China

[Convert54]

2 hours ago, Stardust said:

Sorry if you lived in that time in Germany (my educatiin time) it was inavoidable to experience all what happened but has nothing to do what I studied (education) or worked. But if this is arrogant for you then just not quote me or read anything from me. And about bonds regulatiins I sent articles who most understood but you not and I was not the writer of the article. I remember how others answered about you reading and comprehensive is not the same, after they realized it make no sense the discussion.

I am equally sorry you have confirmed my opinion as expressed. Your unavoidable "experience" may have been as a witness but not as any more realistically involved than more remote observers. It is when you refer to the reaction to my opinion by others in terms of non comprehension and non sense  as definitive evidence of your own correctness rather than a difference of opinion that confirms my analysis.

When you cite the time of the demise of the USSR and the fall of the Berlin Wall that era coincides with the denialism of the German educational system of the WW2 Nazi atrocities you were entrenched in ...or not?

There are always gaps in formal education that experiencial education can compensate for.Problematic in that is such experience takes a few decades than I guess you have yet lived !

Are you not also disturbed by the recent German Trade envoy to Thailand peddling...selling..technological high speed rail expertise as they did to China and now must compete for continued involvement? At least while the money lasts.

 

 

[Stardust]

43 minutes ago, Convert54 said:

I am equally sorry you have confirmed my opinion as expressed. Your unavoidable "experience" may have been as a witness but not as any more realistically involved than more remote observers. It is when you refer to the reaction to my opinion by others in terms of non comprehension and non sense  as definitive evidence of your own correctness rather than a difference of opinion that confirms my analysis.

When you cite the time of the demise of the USSR and the fall of the Berlin Wall that era coincides with the denialism of the German educational system of the WW2 Nazi atrocities you were entrenched in ...or not?

There are always gaps in formal education that experiencial education can compensate for.Problematic in that is such experience takes a few decades than I guess you have yet lived !

Are you not also disturbed by the recent German Trade envoy to Thailand peddling...selling..technological high speed rail expertise as they did to China and now must compete for continued involvement? At least while the money lasts.

Omg what an upper nonsense and you have really no clue or knowledge about the german education system. Please not quote me anymore because it make no sense also somebody who never was in a german school or university etc, claims he knows exactly and better than the ones who were in the schools there or university is a kind of arrogance to use your words. There was no denialism in the schools, the history books included all crimes from the Nazi regime, holocaust, 2nd world war etc. etc.. really absurd your comment and your knowledge about Germany and Europe.

[Andrew Reeve]

Friendly reminder as the last couple of posts have been off topic.

The topic of this thread is 

Collapse of China

[ThailandRyan]

 

Here comes the possible hit people fear:

https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/1531946/global-financial-crash-evergrande-bond-repayment-world-finance

The company, which is one of the largest in the world, delivered a statement to the Hang Seng stock index, informing the organisation liquidity issues may impact its ability to repay investors. Following this, Dr Marco Metzler, senior analyst for Deutsche Markt Screening Agentur (DMSA), said $23.7billion in international bonds is now at risk.

 

[AussieBob]

10 hours ago, Stardust said:

Omg what an upper nonsense and you have really no clue or knowledge about the german education system. Please not quote me anymore because it make no sense also somebody who never was in a german school or university etc, claims he knows exactly and better than the ones who were in the schools there or university is a kind of arrogance to use your words. There was no denialism in the schools, the history books included all crimes from the Nazi regime, holocaust, 2nd world war etc. etc.. really absurd your comment and your knowledge about Germany and Europe.

Dont bother arguing with him @Stardust you are wasting your time.  He thinks that watching a football game on TV is better than being there at the ground live and watching it for 'real'. He (and others) do not understand that he is only being shown on TV what parts of the game the broadcaster decides he should see - and he is only hearing whatever (idiotic) comments are being made by the 'TV Heads'.  He actually thinks what is written by someone in a book, or said on TV, and is then taught in schools, is reality. Unfortunately, politics has created a situation whereby all media are basically biased - they see and interpret and speak about things from their ideological perspective - left or right.  So do we all.  You might as well try and prove to your mother-in-law that your wife is wrong - even if you are right, you will be wrong.  The MIL will always agree with your wife - no matter what - reality or not.

Do those MIL type people know that 90% of Chinese own their own homes, that over 20% of Chinese own an additional property, that 70% of the Chinese wealth is tied up in property, or that there are more Chinese real estate companies defaulting on loans. Do they accept that obviously a property collapse could also collapse the Chinese economy. Many of us hope so - because we also see the reality of how corrupt and evil the CCP is and what they are doing and have been doing worldwide, ever since they were allowed to join the world trade organisation. 

[Stardust]

12 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

Dont bother arguing with him @Stardust you are wasting your time.  He thinks that watching a football game on TV is better than being there at the ground live and watching it for 'real'. He (and others) do not understand that he is only being shown on TV what parts of the game the broadcaster decides he should see - and he is only hearing whatever (idiotic) comments are being made by the 'TV Heads'.  He actually thinks what is written by someone in a book, or said on TV, and is then taught in schools, is reality. Unfortunately, politics has created a situation whereby all media are basically biased - they see and interpret and speak about things from their ideological perspective - left or right.  So do we all.  You might as well try and prove to your mother-in-law that your wife is wrong - even if you are right, you will be wrong.  The MIL will always agree with your wife - no matter what - reality or not.

Do those MIL type people know that 90% of Chinese own their own homes, that over 20% of Chinese own an additional property, that 70% of the Chinese wealth is tied up in property, or that there are more Chinese real estate companies defaulting on loans. Do they accept that obviously a property collapse could also collapse the Chinese economy. Many of us hope so - because we also see the reality of how corrupt and evil the CCP is and what they are doing and have been doing worldwide, ever since they were allowed to join the world trade organisation. 

Fully agree it seems also the far right and ccp are from the same coin and same ideology. Same views and absurd statements. What sometimes surprise on what level they are brainwashed and really think out there are no people who experience the realities or not able to think for themself. Living in a bubble and it seems they believe their bubble is the reality. They will not believe any proofen facts what is outside their propaganda or bubble. You can send them links about incidents, analysizes, reports etc they will not able to read it and will come again with the same propaganda what is debunked thousands of times. It is incredible. You are right it is really a waste of time.

[Stardust]

They are desperate now putting down the reserve requirements. Their pants are burning

 

[Stardust]

Just now, Stardust said:

They are desperate now putting down the reserve requirements. Their pants are burning

4th report

[Stardust]

Evergrande defaulted Kaisa will follow

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59573985

 

[Stardust]

1 hour ago, Stardust said:

Evergrande defaulted Kaisa will follow

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59573985

The US bond holders are still in hope the Politburo bail the debt for the US bonds out. As dmsa mentioned how naive the us bondholders are is shown again.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/07/business/china-evergrande-kaisa-property.html

 

[billywillyjones]

On 12/5/2021 at 8:15 AM, Rookiescot said:

China has never had a recession. That means the bubble has simply reached the point where collapse will be catastrophic. Growth like that for so long is simply unsustainable.

Yes indeed. As in the west it will be the poorest in society who will suffer the most when the economy dives.

China can only continue as long as it can keep printing money and these days cannot go on forever.  They bury their debt at the municipal level.  China needs a currency reset as bad or worse than many Western nations due to uncontrollable spending.  In the Western nations you can also throw unregulated derivatives into the fire.

[Poolie]

What does 'burying their debt at the municipal level' mean? If it's not a direct quote from Rahm Emanuel that is. Whoever he was.

[oldschooler]

11 minutes ago, Poolie said:

What does 'burying their debt at the municipal level' mean? If it's not a direct quote from Rahm Emanuel that is. Whoever he was.

it means concealing such true national debt from the published national GDP / Profit & Loss accounts by hiding it at local sub - national level……

[billywillyjones]

26 minutes ago, Poolie said:

What does 'burying their debt at the municipal level' mean? If it's not a direct quote from Rahm Emanuel that is. Whoever he was.

When you can snatch the pebble from my hand you are ready grassphopper and until then you are grabbing at thin air:)

[palooka]

7 minutes ago, billywillyjones said:

When you can snatch the pebble from my hand you are ready grassphopper and until then you are grabbing at thin air:)

But master there is no pebble in your hand anymore.

[Poolie]

21 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

it means concealing such true national debt from the published national GDP / Profit & Loss accounts by hiding it at local sub - national level……

So it doesn't have to be declared at any level?

[billywillyjones]

1 minute ago, palooka said:

But master there is no pebble in your hand anymore.

good come back very funny

[Kilo]

On 12/3/2021 at 2:13 AM, ThailandRyan said:

https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3158254/debt-laden-developer-china-aoyuan-tumbles-after-failing

Fallout beginning.

Debt-laden developer China Aoyuan tumbles after failing to meet US$651 million of payment demands triggered by ratings downgrades

• The cash-strapped developer said there is ‘no guarantee it will be able to meet its other financial obligations’
• The non-payments may trigger other creditors to request accelerated debt repayment, as permitted under agreements entered into by the company

I love they want to help thailand lao

[billywillyjones]

Just now, Kilo said:

I love they want to help thailand lao

Yes they are building high speed rail so they can send gifts to Laos more quickly and they are lending them lots of money and they only need to give their country as collateral... great guys:)

[Stardust]

8 hours ago, billywillyjones said:

Yes they are building high speed rail so they can send gifts to Laos more quickly and they are lending them lots of money and they only need to give their country as collateral... great guys:)

By they way it was a debt trab in Lao and they took over the state elctricity company and hydro dams. It is all in the imf report.

[Stardust]

Evergrande defaulted also Fitch confirmed. The collapse goes on!

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/09/investing/evergrande-default-fitch-intl-hnk/index.html

 

[Stardust]

I am wondering where all these posters are who explained us Evergrande, Kaisa etc will not default and no collapse? Now they disapeared and we remember how they declared it and that their statements grounded on fairy tale propaganda is the absolute truth, etc etc

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/09/business/china-evergrande-default.html

 

[PBS]

1 hour ago, Stardust said:

I am wondering where all these posters are who explained us Evergrande, Kaisa etc will not default and no collapse? Now they disapeared and we remember how they declared it and that their statements grounded on fairy tale propaganda is the absolute truth, etc etc

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/09/business/china-evergrande-default.html

At the end of the day it will be the citizens of PRC who will suffer most if there is a collapse of the property / financial sectors in PRC so why all the cheering?

It is still unclear what action PRC central government and other official parties will take to address the situation. As mentioned before, best to wait and see what actual outcomes for both PRC and international markets rather than unattractive gloating speculative opinion.

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, PBS said:

At the end of the day it will be the citizens of PRC who will suffer most if there is a collapse of the property / financial sectors in PRC so why all the cheering?

It is still unclear what action PRC central government and other official parties will take to address the situation. As mentioned before, best to wait and see what actual outcomes for both PRC and international markets rather than unattractive gloating speculative opinion.

Whose cheering for the default? Many of us are concerned as it affects the whole world.  Will it affect the Chines investors more, sure it will as 70% of the investments are in the real-estate market as discussed in a few posts in the OP.  The Government in China at least the local prefectures are calling in the responsible parties as well as the banks amid a major tightening up of the issues that allowed this to happen. 

Seems like its a replay of the 2008 Housing bubble burst in the US that carried over for many years and ended up making new laws to protect folks.  Sub Prime mortgage issues were not the only thing that caused this debacle but as usual people do not learn from the past.  I bought a few homes at auctions for pennies on the dollar from banks and then remodeled them and have been using them as part of my retirement portfolio, owing nothing to any bank.  Liquid is where one wants to be.  The houses I bought are worth 3 times what I paid for them.  If the market crashes therein I am still ahead of the game almost 10 years later.

The Chines investors are not and will not be that lucky I am afraid. 

[Stardust]

5 hours ago, PBS said:

At the end of the day it will be the citizens of PRC who will suffer most if there is a collapse of the property / financial sectors in PRC so why all the cheering?

It is still unclear what action PRC central government and other official parties will take to address the situation. As mentioned before, best to wait and see what actual outcomes for both PRC and international markets rather than unattractive gloating speculative opinion.

It is unclear for you as before, too. For others not who look into the reality and numbers and not any politburo fairy tales. For the others and analysts this now was clear already weeks ago. You were with the deniers, so if you is not clear you have to speak for yourself!