Collapse of China

[HiuMak]

Eat more Chinese food.

The Art of War is on the verge

[Rookiescot]

45 minutes ago, PBS said:

I have never stated ‘let PRC carry on with its cruel policies. It is my opinion PRC has access to so much wealth PRC Will not collapse. Personally I am of the opinion will survive. Once Xi has gone perhaps a chance of redirection will occur as was the case after Mao, rather than the suffering of millions due to ‘collapse’.

China has never had a recession. That means the bubble has simply reached the point where collapse will be catastrophic. Growth like that for so long is simply unsustainable.

Yes indeed. As in the west it will be the poorest in society who will suffer the most when the economy dives.

[AussieBob]

1 hour ago, PBS said:

There may well be outcomes for financial markets, but will that lead to the Collapse of China is an unknown

Most of us certainly hope so 

[PBS]

17 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

China has never had a recession. That means the bubble has simply reached the point where collapse will be catastrophic. Growth like that for so long is simply unsustainable.

Yes indeed. As in the west it will be the poorest in society who will suffer the most when the economy dives.

Under Mao PRC had a terrible recession during which millions died

[Stardust]

1 hour ago, AussieBob said:

@Stardustand I are in agreement PBS (on this issue) - we dont care the outcome, as long as China goes dow.  Allowing China to do what it is doing is the greater of the two evils, and as with other crashes, the outcome foe the west (Aust included) is likely to not be as bad as predicted by some (like yourself) in justifying allowing China to continue doing what it is doing.  Your analogy is like saying, 'let Uncle keep molesting that other girl, otherwise he might molest one of our girls.'

Thank you to explaining him the point. And again he reminds on the people who said the wall will not fall or the soviet union will not collapse because it is so huge and so much resources etc etc. The soviet Union collapsed because full of dept and a economy by a 5 years plan decided by a corrupt comunist party and it reminds on what? To say soviet union is off topic when we see the same habbits again and full of debts again. And exactly again we see how they kicking the can down the road. So your point with the soviet union was right . And I think Australia could already see and learn about the threat behind the Xi regime and as Europe was threatend and pointed by nuclear missiles, the same will Xi make with Australia, Japan, Taiwan etc.

Same regime and same behaviour.

[PBS]

3 hours ago, Stardust said:

Thank you to explaining him the point. And again he reminds on the people who said the wall will not fall or the soviet union will not collapse because it is so huge and so much resources etc etc. The soviet Union collapsed because full of dept and a economy by a 5 years plan decided by a corrupt comunist party and it reminds on what? To say soviet union is off topic when we see the same habbits again and full of debts again. And exactly again we see how they kicking the can down the road. So your point with the soviet union was right . And I think Australia could already see and learn about the threat behind the Xi regime and as Europe was threatend and pointed by nuclear missiles, the same will Xi make with Australia, Japan, Taiwan etc.

Same regime and same behaviour.

Comparing the collapse of the Soviet Union to current day PRC, is, IMO, nonsense. For a starter the Soviet Union was experiencing huge internal political turmoil and thoroughly manipulated by the Reagan Administration on defence spending and Afghanistan leading to destabilisation. In addition, Xi is not about to introduce multiparty elections thereby introducing democratisation, as did Gorbachev which resulted in the collapse of Party control. PRC has significant debt, but good GDP. To repeat it is currently an unknown how PRC will manage outcomes of any challenges with its financial markets, it is not a forgone conclusion PRC will 'collapse' anytime soon.

Edited December 5, 2021 by PBS

[Stardust]

3 hours ago, PBS said:

Comparing the collapse of the Soviet Union to current day PRC, is, IMO, nonsense. For a starter the Soviet Union was experiencing huge internal political turmoil and thoroughly manipulated by the Reagan Administration on defence spending and Afghanistan leading to destabilisation. In addition, Xi is not about to introduce multiparty elections thereby introducing democratisation, as did Gorbachev which resulted in the collapse of Party control. PRC has significant debt, but good GDP. To repeat it is currently an unknown how PRC will manage outcomes of any challenges with its financial markets, it is not a forgone conclusion PRC will 'collapse' anytime soon.

Omg what a nonsense and absolut wrong. By the way I whitnessed the fall of the wall and the collapse of the soviet union. I was in Germany at that time and after the wall fall in the former soviet union block when it collapsed and where were you at the time to say you know what happened?!

[Stardust]

3 hours ago, PBS said:

Comparing the collapse of the Soviet Union to current day PRC, is, IMO, nonsense. For a starter the Soviet Union was experiencing huge internal political turmoil and thoroughly manipulated by the Reagan Administration on defence spending and Afghanistan leading to destabilisation. In addition, Xi is not about to introduce multiparty elections thereby introducing democratisation, as did Gorbachev which resulted in the collapse of Party control. PRC has significant debt, but good GDP. To repeat it is currently an unknown how PRC will manage outcomes of any challenges with its financial markets, it is not a forgone conclusion PRC will 'collapse' anytime soon.

Don't quote me because it make no sense for me a discussion with somebody who not understand the bondmarkets and rules or writing about the collapse soviet union and the wall fall who has really no knowledge about that and to understand you should talk with whitnesses of that time and experienced it. I read your comments and I see it make really no sense and he knows really nothing about it. And he has no knowledge about incidents with Gorbatchow, Honecker, Genscher and Kohl. Take it easy

[Stardust]

1 minute ago, Stardust said:

Don't quote me because it make no sense for me a discussion with somebody who not understand the bondmarkets and rules or writing about the collapse soviet union and the wall fall who has really no knowledge about that and to understand you should talk with whitnesses of that time and experienced it. I read your comments and I see it make really no sense and he knows really nothing about it. And he has no knowledge about incidents with Gorbatchow, Honecker, Genscher and Kohl. Take it easy

Oh by the way Reagan was not there at this time because he was no more president

[Convert54]

31 minutes ago, Stardust said:

Don't quote me because it make no sense for me a discussion with somebody who not understand the bondmarkets and rules or writing about the collapse soviet union and the wall fall who has really no knowledge about that and to understand you should talk with whitnesses of that time and experienced it. I read your comments and I see it make really no sense and he knows really nothing about it. And he has no knowledge about incidents with Gorbatchow, Honecker, Genscher and Kohl. Take it easy

I find your commentary at times offensively arrogant in that you and you alone assume to "understand" aspects of both current affairs and well documented, televised historical events as they occurred which although perhaps not personally of such dramatic impact as being present at the toppling of a symbolic part of the Berlin wall assuredly as educational and informative as to the demise of the USSR for those who retain the memory of it and the combined factors involved !

To date you have claimed as fact  superior understanding of all things engineering, financial structuring, the bond and stock markets, indisputable superior knowledge of modern history and seemingly a capacity to predict the desired demise of a nation ! 

You do not appreciate debate. You only welcome agreement !

 

 

 

 

[PBS]

31 minutes ago, Stardust said:

Don't quote me because it make no sense for me a discussion with somebody who not understand the bondmarkets and rules or writing about the collapse soviet union and the wall fall who has really no knowledge about that and to understand you should talk with whitnesses of that time and experienced it. I read your comments and I see it make really no sense and he knows really nothing about it. And he has no knowledge about incidents with Gorbatchow, Honecker, Genscher and Kohl. Take it easy

Clearly we disagree concerning the immediate future of PRC, but there is no need to keep making personal assumptive commentary based on hubris. There are many interpretations of political reality. Even with the usual 50 year rule on releasing government documentation / communications, in Western democracies, items are still suppressed for disclosure. Accordingly, kindly take on board you are not the arbiter of Truth, just information to interpret and form opinion. 

[ThailandRyan]

A tidbit of information for comparison 

https://fortune.com/2021/12/02/chinese-real-estate-investing-home-ownership-evergrande/

 

ESTATE

China stores 70% of its wealth in real estate. Now, the property crisis is forcing investors to reconsider their favorite means of savings

 

[Poolie]

6 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

A tidbit of information for comparison 

https://fortune.com/2021/12/02/chinese-real-estate-investing-home-ownership-evergrande/

ESTATE

China stores 70% of its wealth in real estate. Now, the property crisis is forcing investors to reconsider their favorite means of savings

Fortune's first headquarters were located in the Chrysler Building at 135 East 42nd Street in New York City; it later moved to the Time-Life Building at 1271 Avenue of the Americas and Brookfield Place at 225 Liberty Street and is currently headquartered at 40 Fulton Street.

Got anything that's not biased?

[ThailandRyan]

13 minutes ago, Poolie said:

Fortune's first headquarters were located in the Chrysler Building at 135 East 42nd Street in New York City; it later moved to the Time-Life Building at 1271 Avenue of the Americas and Brookfield Place at 225 Liberty Street and is currently headquartered at 40 Fulton Street.

Got anything that's not biased?

Read the article and then talk your nonsense since I know you did not read it.  You might be surprised at what it says, but then you knew that already and decided to spout your rhetoric as always.

"Now, Beijing—recognizing China’s dwindling population growth, slowing urbanization, and inflated home prices—is trying to wean the property sector off the debt that fueled its rise and, in turn, reduce the economy’s reliance on the property sector and related industries, the largest contributor to GDP at 30%. The effort is starving developers of funds, leaving projects like Sunshine Peninsula in limbo and adding urgency to Beijing’s campaign to hook citizens on other means of investment, such as its domestic stock market. Home sales and housing prices are starting to tick down after years of spikes—early signs that Chinese citizens may be rethinking the role of their homes as trusty piggy banks."

[Convert54]

13 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

A tidbit of information for comparison 

https://fortune.com/2021/12/02/chinese-real-estate-investing-home-ownership-evergrande/

ESTATE

China stores 70% of its wealth in real estate. Now, the property crisis is forcing investors to reconsider their favorite means of savings

A degree of thoughtfulness is essential in deciphering the removed from reality opinion of mouthpiece platforms such as Fortune. " Now, the property crisis is forcing investors to reconsider their favorite means of savings". Which investors? Those that retain wealth outside of any investment made  more in terms of a desire for secure  dwelling or those who speculating on the portfolio profitability of that desire?

There need be a clear distinction made in definition of "investor" at least in terms of  home purchaser  vs speculator.

To the point that the "speculative" component is a common agent of distortion in inflated property prices .

The greed factor that supports the speculative  initiative  is assisted by financial institutions that have a corresponding  greed motivation.

Developers obtain credit  to sell to  clients who obtain credit  in an expanding bubble where developers note that buyers get credit easily so up prices which customers get financial lenders to accommodate .

The expectations of speculators tap into the " apparent" perpetual dividends that increase due to the hyper inflation factors .

HIstorically a rinse and repeat scenario in different formats! Globally!

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Rain]

I'm in search of a boggieman or two.

 

Any suggestions?

[ThailandRyan]

9 minutes ago, Convert54 said:

A degree of thoughtfulness is essential in deciphering the removed from reality opinion of mouthpiece platforms such as Fortune. " Now, the property crisis is forcing investors to reconsider their favorite means of savings". Which investors? Those that retain wealth outside of any investment made  more in terms of a desire for secure  dwelling or those who speculating on the portfolio profitability of that desire?

There need be a clear distinction made in definition of "investor" at least in terms of  home purchaser  vs speculator.

To the point that the "speculative" component is a common agent of distortion in inflated property prices .

The greed factor that supports the speculative  initiative  is assisted by financial institutions that have a corresponding  greed motivation.

Developers obtain credit  to sell to  clients who obtain credit  in an expanding bubble where developers note that buyers get credit easily so up prices which customers get financial lenders to accommodate .

The expectations of speculators tap into the " apparent" perpetual dividends that increase due to the hyper inflation factors .

HIstorically a rinse and repeat scenario in different formats! Globally!

Read the whole article, instead of just the snippet posted. You might find your comment out of touch.

[ThailandRyan]

This in todays Thai Examiner brings the whole issue closer to home here in Thailand.  Lets see how those who claim everything is just western propaganda respond to this one. Please read the whole article before commenting purely on a snippet posted.  Responding to just the snippet makes you look very foolish.

https://www.thaiexaminer.com/thai-news-foreigners/2021/12/04/china-an-economic-bomb-for-thai-prospsects/

China could be an economic time bomb sitting on Thailand’s doorstep as Evergrande collapse nears

The hectic battle to save Chinese property behemoth Evergrande from default and collapse continues in Hong Kong where maverick financier Pollyanna Chu has been drafted in to raise funds even as other firms have already defaulted in what appears to be a massive property bubble in China representing at least 70% of the wealth in the communist country. Chinese President Xi Jinping has reacted by galvanising public opinion at home with increasingly strident, nationalistic rhetoric promising a more equal redistribution of wealth by 2035. It comes as evidence increasingly shows a country in the midst of a liquidity crisis that started after the COVID-19 virus emergency in January 2020. This severely undermined China’s credibility in western financial markets leaving property firms and regional banks in trouble. The extent of the problem goes well beyond the $300 billion owed by Evergrande. It also extends to the banking sector in the country. According to McKinsey and Co, China increased its wealth from $9 trillion in 2000 to $120 trillion in 2020, over 33% more than the USA.

Chinese property market is 30% of GDP

Property bubble waiting to pop that may not just threaten property prices but the world’s economy

This has contributed to already well-grounded fears that the Chinese economy may be sitting on a large property bubble that is just waiting to pop, sending shock waves around the world that will hit Thailand sooner and harder than the crisis of 2008.

 

Edited December 6, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[Convert54]

11 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Read the whole article, instead of just the snippet posted. You might find your comment out of touch.

Why assume I did not read the whole article?  I did and it lead me to my comments.

IMO there is an obvious differentiation between mortgagors and investors in the housing/construction market. The mortgagor is basically a consumer which the investors in the form of construction/mortgagee etc provide a profitable product.  

Fortune opinion is based on the latter aspect of "investment".  

[Convert54]

21 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

This in todays Thai Examiner brings the whole issue closer to home here in Thailand.  Lets see how those who claim everything is just western propaganda respond to this one. Please read the whole article before commenting purely on a snippet posted.  Responding to just the snippet makes you look very foolish.

https://www.thaiexaminer.com/thai-news-foreigners/2021/12/04/china-an-economic-bomb-for-thai-prospsects/

China could be an economic time bomb sitting on Thailand’s doorstep as Evergrande collapse nears

The hectic battle to save Chinese property behemoth Evergrande from default and collapse continues in Hong Kong where maverick financier Pollyanna Chu has been drafted in to raise funds even as other firms have already defaulted in what appears to be a massive property bubble in China representing at least 70% of the wealth in the communist country. Chinese President Xi Jinping has reacted by galvanising public opinion at home with increasingly strident, nationalistic rhetoric promising a more equal redistribution of wealth by 2035. It comes as evidence increasingly shows a country in the midst of a liquidity crisis that started after the COVID-19 virus emergency in January 2020. This severely undermined China’s credibility in western financial markets leaving property firms and regional banks in trouble. The extent of the problem goes well beyond the $300 billion owed by Evergrande. It also extends to the banking sector in the country. According to McKinsey and Co, China increased its wealth from $9 trillion in 2000 to $120 trillion in 2020, over 33% more than the USA.

Chinese property market is 30% of GDP

Property bubble waiting to pop that may not just threaten property prices but the world’s economy

This has contributed to already well-grounded fears that the Chinese economy may be sitting on a large property bubble that is just waiting to pop, sending shock waves around the world that will hit Thailand sooner and harder than the crisis of 2008.

All very true! It is the potential for such negative impact on the global economy that leaves me to wonder why there are some so keen to see it happen? Cut off the nose to spite the face thinking?

 

[ThailandRyan]

18 minutes ago, Convert54 said:

Why assume I did not read the whole article?  I did and it lead me to my comments.

IMO there is an obvious differentiation between mortgagors and investors in the housing/construction market. The mortgagor is basically a consumer which the investors in the form of construction/mortgagee etc provide a profitable product.  

Fortune opinion is based on the latter aspect of "investment".  

Keep reading and catch up on what the article I posted also says.  In unison it spells an uncertain and potentially very gloomy future reminiscent of the 2008 housing crisis the west felt that echoed also around the world.

[ThailandRyan]

12 minutes ago, Convert54 said:

All very true! It is the potential for such negative impact on the global economy that leaves me to wonder why there are some so keen to see it happen? Cut off the nose to spite the face thinking?

No one is keen to see it happen as the economic chaos that will be created will be felt worldwide.  Now some expats will be happy for one key factor and that is the exchange rates will now move back into their favor.  It is not always about anti Chinese sentiment as a few posters insist that many of us have.  Eggs in a basket is how I look at it and all the world put theirs into China for the profits those companies and such could make to fatten their bank accounts.  Those are the folks I will be glad to see taken down a notch or two.

[ThailandRyan]

More news that shows the effects on the stock of Evergrande declining

www.reuters.com/world/china/china-evergrande-shares-set-fall-71-after-it-says-no-guarantee-it-can-meet-2021-12-06/

Evergrande's stock fell more than 12% to HK$1.98, its lowest since May 2010.

[Stardust]

On 12/5/2021 at 4:37 PM, Convert54 said:

I find your commentary at times offensively arrogant in that you and you alone assume to "understand" aspects of both current affairs and well documented, televised historical events as they occurred which although perhaps not personally of such dramatic impact as being present at the toppling of a symbolic part of the Berlin wall assuredly as educational and informative as to the demise of the USSR for those who retain the memory of it and the combined factors involved !

To date you have claimed as fact  superior understanding of all things engineering, financial structuring, the bond and stock markets, indisputable superior knowledge of modern history and seemingly a capacity to predict the desired demise of a nation ! 

You do not appreciate debate. You only welcome agreement !

Sorry if you lived in that time in Germany (my educatiin time) it was inavoidable to experience all what happened but has nothing to do what I studied (education) or worked. But if this is arrogant for you then just not quote me or read anything from me. And about bonds regulatiins I sent articles who most understood but you not and I was not the writer of the article. I remember how others answered about you reading and comprehensive is not the same, after they realized it make no sense the discussion.

[Stardust]

7 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

More news that shows the effects on the stock of Evergrande declining

www.reuters.com/world/china/china-evergrande-shares-set-fall-71-after-it-says-no-guarantee-it-can-meet-2021-12-06/

Evergrande's stock fell more than 12% to HK$1.98, its lowest since May 2010.

Yes interesting

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-evergrande-shares-set-fall-71-after-it-says-no-guarantee-it-can-meet-2021-12-06/