News Forum - Sunday Afternoon Covid-19 Update: Provincial totals

[Thaiger]

Today, the CCSA reported 10,814 new Covid-19 infections and Coronavirus-related deaths remained below 100 for the second day in a row with 77 deaths. Since April 1, in the latest wave of the virus in Thailand, a total of 1,608,569 confirmed Covid-19 infections have been reported. In the 24 hour period since the last count, the CCSA has reported 11,894 recoveries, 1,233 less than yesterday. In other Covid-19 news, 3.68 million students registered to get Pfizer vaccines that are expected to begin being administered tomorrow. Read the story here. PROVINCIAL COVID-19 TOTALS In provincial Covid-19 updates, today Chonburi surpassed Samut Sakhon in total infections to […]

The post Sunday Afternoon Covid-19 Update: Provincial totals appeared first on Thaiger News.

Read the full story

[oldcpu]

It appears to me that Thaiger made a mistake in their provincial totals.

What they are presenting on Sunday is identical to what was presented on Saturday as provincial totals.

IMHO they should check what they posted and correct it.

[Stonker]

So ...

Loei Province, population 642,773 = 12 cases today, total 3,034 cases = 472 cases per 100,000 = Red

.

Phuket, population 437,963 = 147 cases today, total 11,246 cases = 2,568 cases per 100,000 = orange.

.

That says it all, really.

[oldcpu]

9 minutes ago, Stonker said:

Phuket, population 437,963

Possibly a mute point, but Phuket population is much closer to 600,000. 

[riclag]

11 minutes ago, Stonker said:

So ...

Loei Province, population 642,773 = 12 cases today, total 3,034 cases = 472 cases per 100,000 = Red

.

Phuket, population 437,963 = 147 cases today, total 11,246 cases = 2,568 cases per 100,000 = orange.

.

That says it all, really.

And now we know why Tooieland is over the radar with the UK!

No rhyme or reason to their stats for the Thai Govt

Edited October 3, 2021 by riclag

[Stonker]

28 minutes ago, oldcpu said:

It appears to me that Thaiger made a mistake in their provincial totals.

What they are presenting on Sunday is identical to what was presented on Saturday as provincial totals.

IMHO they should check what they posted and correct it.

I was going to say it's Groundhog Day, but actually although the "Today" figures are exactly the same, the "Total" figures have gone up - presumably by the "correct" amount, as the increases aren't the same as yesterday.

So I'm guessing the "Total" column is correct but the "Today" column is wrong, but you can work out today's correct figures by subtracting yesterday's totals  from today's.

Alternatively someone could just get their act together .....

[Stonker]

17 minutes ago, oldcpu said:

Possibly a mute point, but Phuket population is much closer to 600,000. 

A moot point as those are the official government figures, not a guess (although I agree with you), and also for Phuket the figure which the vaccination percentages are based on. Difficult for them to have it both ways - although, of course, far from impossible for Phuket.

[AlexPTY]

53 minutes ago, Stonker said:

So ...

Loei Province, population 642,773 = 12 cases today, total 3,034 cases = 472 cases per 100,000 = Red

.

Phuket, population 437,963 = 147 cases today, total 11,246 cases = 2,568 cases per 100,000 = orange.

.

That says it all, really.

yeah, i am laughing on these numbers since April. Math is not a strongest subject in military schools

[Stonker]

22 minutes ago, AlexPTY said:

Math is not a strongest subject in military schools

Probably why I'm so cr@p at it

[NeillF]

4 hours ago, oldcpu said:

It appears to me that Thaiger made a mistake in their provincial totals.

What they are presenting on Sunday is identical to what was presented on Saturday as provincial totals.

IMHO they should check what they posted and correct it.

Sorry about that, database error. Still working out the kinks of how best to record and display provincial data. It's corrected now though. Thanks for bringing it to my attention!

[MrStretch]

Actually, the way it appeared  last week seemed the cleanest.  It was clear and easy to read.

[AussieBob]

Easy to cut and paste whatever is provided by CCSA, but they have admitted that they just publicise the numbers that are given to them by the various Thai groups doing the vaccinations and they sometimes over lap - hence the 2+ million in one day.   Probably a good idea for Thaiger to create a template of relevant numbers and then insert the updated numbers. 

[oldcpu]

11 hours ago, NeillF said:

Sorry about that, database error. Still working out the kinks of how best to record and display provincial data. It's corrected now though. Thanks for bringing it to my attention!

Thanks for updating !

[oldcpu]

16 hours ago, Stonker said:

A moot point as those are the official government figures, not a guess (although I agree with you), and also for Phuket the figure which the vaccination percentages are based on. Difficult for them to have it both ways - although, of course, far from impossible for Phuket.

Possibly the government then has different figures - dependent which government department. 

While you noted Phuket population of 437,963 from some government source, I also note the routine vaccination status figure (also from the government) has a target # of 466,587 of people in Phuket to be vaccinated (where that exceeds the 437,963 #). 

Further, if one goes back in the news far enough, one can read that the government stated that 466,587 target is a % (less than 100%) of the Phuket population. I can't recall if that was 70% or 77% of the population, but if one assumes 77%, then the population of Phuket is over 600,000, again based only on government figures (assuming a 77% target - although I can't recall the exact % that target # of 466,587 was based on).

What I do more accurately recall is an article on Pfizer in Phuket, where the Phuket News ( https://www.thephuketnews.com/pfizer-injections-begin-in-phuket-81309.php ) noted the Phuket Provincial Public Health Office (PPHO)  had 547,584 people in Phuket registered to be vaccinated, exceeding both the 437,963, and the 466,587 numbers.  Also that likely does not include children age 11 and under, and possibly does not include children age 17 and under.     If one estimates the # of children (such as from this article:  https://www.thephuketnews.com/phuket-governor-asks-for-pfizer-sinopharm-for-children-aged-3-17-81552.php ) Governor Narong purportedly noted Phuket has a total of 83,267 children aged 3-17 years old, with 49,937 of those aged 3-11 years old, and 33,330 aged 12-17 years.    If one takes the 547,584 (registered for vaccine) and adds the 83,267 children, again its above 600,000.

Again - these are government figures I am using.   .... My suspicion, with my not knowing the reference, is the 437,963 # of people in Phuket is some # from years back that has not been updated for a while.

[Stonker]

1 hour ago, oldcpu said:

Possibly the government then has different figures - dependent which government department. 

While you noted Phuket population of 437,963 from some government source, I also note the routine vaccination status figure (also from the government) has a target # of 466,587 of people in Phuket to be vaccinated (where that exceeds the 437,963 #). 

Further, if one goes back in the news far enough, one can read that the government stated that 466,587 target is a % (less than 100%) of the Phuket population. I can't recall if that was 70% or 77% of the population, but if one assumes 77%, then the population of Phuket is over 600,000, again based only on government figures (assuming a 77% target - although I can't recall the exact % that target # of 466,587 was based on).

What I do more accurately recall is an article on Pfizer in Phuket, where the Phuket News ( https://www.thephuketnews.com/pfizer-injections-begin-in-phuket-81309.php ) noted the Phuket Provincial Public Health Office (PPHO)  had 547,584 people in Phuket registered to be vaccinated, exceeding both the 437,963, and the 466,587 numbers.  Also that likely does not include children age 11 and under, and possibly does not include children age 17 and under.     If one estimates the # of children (such as from this article:  https://www.thephuketnews.com/phuket-governor-asks-for-pfizer-sinopharm-for-children-aged-3-17-81552.php ) Governor Narong purportedly noted Phuket has a total of 83,267 children aged 3-17 years old, with 49,937 of those aged 3-11 years old, and 33,330 aged 12-17 years.    If one takes the 547,584 (registered for vaccine) and adds the 83,267 children, again its above 600,000.

Again - these are government figures I am using.   .... My suspicion, with my not knowing the reference, is the 437,963 # of people in Phuket is some # from years back that has not been updated for a while.

No, the provincial population figures I gave weren't from "years back" but from last year (2020).

The problem is that if you're going to compare figures you need to take them from the same source rather than a considerable number of different sources as you've done or just a "guesstimate".

Your vaccinated / target figures for Phuket, for example, include not just a sizeable number of expats but a considerably larger number of registered migrant workers (well over 100,000).

Those figures aren't readily available for Loei, and while there are far less expats there are probably just as many migrants, although mainly unregistered, as Loei borders Laos.

The number of known cases are directly comparable as they're both from the same source and include Thais,  expats, and migrants (registered or not).

The size of populations I gave were also both from the same source, so also directly comparable, omitting unknowns such as expats and migrants for both.

If you want to argue that Phuket's population is higher than the figure I gave you may well be right, but unless you  similarly include expats and migrants for Loei, where the combined number is probably very similar, then what's the point?

[oldcpu]

On 10/4/2021 at 11:26 AM, Stonker said:

No, the provincial population figures I gave weren't from "years back" but from last year (2020).

....

If you want to argue that Phuket's population is higher than the figure I gave you may well be right, but unless you  similarly include expats and migrants for Loei, where the combined number is probably very similar, then what's the point?

I find it sad that provincial population figures are quoted as being much lower than is most likely the case.  I am pretty certain the numbers are greater than 600,000 - honestly, I don't think there should be any question of that. Rather the question may be how much more than 600,000 ???  The point of course being statistics constantly incorrectly use the wrong number for the population and in some cases (not all cases) wrong conclusions are drawn.  

 

My view is migrant workers and expats ARE part of Phuket's population.  They should be included in estimates.  Most migrant workers and expats ARE registered in Phuket.  Rather its the Thai workers from up north or from down south, who tend not to be registered in Phuket.

As for population numbers: 

6 September article gave the Phuket Health department 'target total' for vaccinations as 547,584:  https://www.thephuketnews.com/pfizer-injections-begin-in-phuket-81309.php

29 September article quotes the Phuket governor as saying Phuket has a total of 83,267 children aged 3-17 years old, with 49,937 of those aged 3-11 years old, and 33,330 aged 12-17 years old - https://www.thephuketnews.com/phuket-governor-asks-for-pfizer-sinopharm-for-children-aged-3-17-81552.php

5-October:  Phuket news is now reporting "Phuket officials finally recognise island’s population in mass vaccination campaign" although frankly, even in that article the actual Phuket population is NOT mentioned. Instead it is just a repeat of the Phuket Health department 'target total' for vaccinations as 547,584 - https://www.thephuketnews.com/phuket-officials-finally-recognise-island-population-in-mass-vaccination-campaign-81614.php

17-June article: Phuket news notes from V/Gov Pichet that “For People who work in Phuket but come from other provinces, there are more than 100,000 people ...". and " “For migrant workers and expats, there are about 74,000 on the island. "

While I still believe no one knows the actual population of Phuket at present time, I do believe based on the above articles, where government sources are quoted, that if one adds up the the locals, adds up the out of province Thai workers who have come to Phuket, adds up the migrant workers and the expats, and adds up the children ... the actual number of people in Phuket must be > 600,000.   Clearly numbers less than 500,000 people have to be wrong.  I find it sad that such wrong numbers continue to be quoted and that then statistics use lower numbers. 

 

[Stonker]

13 minutes ago, oldcpu said:

I find it sad that provincial population figures are quoted as being much lower than is most likely the case.  I am pretty certain the numbers are greater than 600,000 - honestly, I don't think there should be any question of that. Rather the question may be how much more than 600,000 ???  The point of course being statistics constantly incorrectly use the wrong number for the population and in some cases (not all cases) wrong conclusions are drawn.  

 

My view is migrant workers and expats ARE part of Phuket's population.  They should be included in estimates.  Most migrant workers and expats ARE registered in Phuket.  Rather its the Thai workers from up north or from down south, who tend not to be registered in Phuket.

As for population numbers: 

6 September article gave the Phuket Health department 'target total' for vaccinations as 547,584: https://www.thephuketnews.com/pfizer-injections-begin-in-phuket-81309.php

29 September article quotes the Phuket governor as saying Phuket has a total of 83,267 children aged 3-17 years old, with 49,937 of those aged 3-11 years old, and 33,330 aged 12-17 years old - https://www.thephuketnews.com/phuket-governor-asks-for-pfizer-sinopharm-for-children-aged-3-17-81552.php

5-October:  Phuket news is now reporting "Phuket officials finally recognise island’s population in mass vaccination campaign" although frankly, even in that article the actual Phuket population is NOT mentioned. Instead it is just a repeat of the Phuket Health department 'target total' for vaccinations as 547,584 - https://www.thephuketnews.com/phuket-officials-finally-recognise-island-population-in-mass-vaccination-campaign-81614.php

17-June article: Phuket news notes from V/Gov Pichet that “For People who work in Phuket but come from other provinces, there are more than 100,000 people ...". and " “For migrant workers and expats, there are about 74,000 on the island. "

While I still believe no one knows the actual population of Phuket at present time, I do believe based on the above articles, where government sources are quoted, that if one adds up the the locals, adds up the out of province Thai workers who have come to Phuket, adds up the migrant workers and the expats, and adds up the children ... the actual number of people in Phuket must be > 600,000.   Clearly numbers less than 500,000 people have to be wrong.  I find it sad that such wrong numbers continue to be quoted and that then statistics use lower numbers. 

 

I'm at a loss as to why you're still banging on about this, or what's so "sad" about the figures.

Those I quoted were simply the registered resident populations for Phuket and Loei provinces, excluding migrant workers and expats in both as the figures aren't readily available for Loei.

Nobody's using the "wrong" numbers for anything, whether Phuket or Loei - they simply exclude expats and migrant workers so that they compare like with like, not apples and oranges, not including them for one province but not the other.

 

[oldcpu]

12 hours ago, Stonker said:

.. they simply exclude expats and migrant workers so that they compare like with like, not apples and oranges, not including them for one province but not the other.

 

One of my points is they do not simply exclude foreign migrant workers and expats.  Typically when one refers to 'migrant' workers they refer to 'foreign migrants' (ie not Thai citizens).  

If one excludes migrant workers (ie foreigner workers) and expats, the population of Phuket is over 500,000.  Note the figure you provided was under 500,000.  

Also , the number of Thai (I repeat Thai) workers who come to Phuket from out of province exceed that of migrant workers and expats in Phuket.

Also, I do not believe the #s you quoted (under 500,000) include children either.

The other point is there IS something wrong, IMHO, in how the statistics are reported because of those bad numbers.

One simply has to read the news to see this is wrong. 

They quote government as saying x% of people in Phuket vaccinated, when that could not be further from the truth. Those % values are HIGHLY misleading.  I say further from the truth because the % is based on a target, and not the population, and further the population estimates are wrong.

Ergo the % vaccinated figures given are very wrong - some would say a political spin (or more bluntly put - a lie by those who provide the % #s to the press).

Edited October 8, 2021 by oldcpu

[Stonker]

1 hour ago, oldcpu said:

One of my points is they do not simply exclude foreign migrant workers and expats.  Typically when one refers to 'migrant' workers they refer to 'foreign migrants' (ie not Thai citizens).  

If one excludes migrant workers (ie foreigner workers) and expats, the population of Phuket is over 500,000.  Note the figure you provided was under 500,000.  

Also , the number of Thai (I repeat Thai) workers who come to Phuket from out of province exceed that of migrant workers and expats in Phuket.

Also, I do not believe the #s you quoted (under 500,000) include children either.

The other point is there IS something wrong, IMHO, in how the statistics are reported because of those bad numbers.

One simply has to read the news to see this is wrong. 

They quote government as saying x% of people in Phuket vaccinated, when that could not be further from the truth. Those % values are HIGHLY misleading.  I say further from the truth because the % is based on a target, and not the population, and further the population estimates are wrong.

Ergo the % vaccinated figures given are very wrong - some would say a political spin (or more bluntly put - a lie by those who provide the % #s to the press).

Sorry, but I've given up caring about what you "believe" Phuket's population to be and what you "believe" is included or not.

I gave the official figures for the populations of Phuket and Loei provinces as they were directly comparable - from the same source, for the same year, including the same groups, and excluding the same groups.

You've chosen to make an issue about Phuket's population, completely ignoring that the exact same issues apply to Loei.

I've tried to explain that the comparison had to be like with like in order to be valid, but that seems beyond you.

If you want to make a point about the inaccuracy of the government's figures then obviously that's up to you, but PLEASE STOP QUOTING ME as if what you're saying has anything to do with the point I made, anything to do with anything I've said here, or anything to do with what you keep repeating, which it doesn't.