News Forum - Thai baht to continue dropping against the USD

[Griff1315]

3 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

I've got a pretty good flux-capacitor for sale

How much is it Bob 

Don't care about the exchange just want to be young again...

[Bob20]

Special price for you

[Craig]

 

For those who don’t understand the declining Baht against the US $, let me help:
 

The “woman” you bought last night cost less in US dollars than the “woman” you bought last week.  If you can remember back that far.

 

[TheDirtyDurian]

1 hour ago, Soidog said:

In August, the highest the USD hit was 33.46 on August 10th. In September the highest was 33.94 on September 30th. So the USD was higher in September then in August. It’s currently 33.59 as of today and so it has fallen compared to the high in September.
 

Maybe we are tripping over terminology? But the USD value against the Baht has been on an Upward trend since January. On January 1st  it was exactly 30.0. Today it is 33.59. That means it has gone UP. As your graph clearly shows. 

Downward trend in value of the Thai baht, as my graph clearly shows. 

[Soidog]

20 minutes ago, Griff1315 said:

Bought my first new car and built our first home back in the good old days of 70+ to the £.

Must have been a right kick in the teeth for a lot of UK pensioners over these last 12 years or so 

2008 first big drop down to low 50s

2016 Brexit vote and down to low 40s.

Let's hope we are finally onto a good streak...

Yes let’s hope so. The attached is what the “experts” think will happen over the coming years. Next year looks promising, but still nothing near the highs we’ve discussed. While early 50’s will feel far better, I’m sure some politician or bank governor will open their mouth a spoil it. 
 

It always amazes me that Thailand can have street protests, military coups, natural disasters, late to vaccinate against Covid and yet nothing seems to really damage the baht. The Boris’s dog gets a cold and the Pound falls 2% in a day. Baffling! 

[Soidog]

4 minutes ago, TheDirtyDurian said:

Downward trend in value of the Thai baht, as my graph clearly shows. 

Correct. That’s why I think we were tripping on terminology. The USD has risen against the THB and the THB has fallen against the USD. We are in agreement

[longwood50]

6 hours ago, billywillyjones said:

The way ole dementia Joe is spending I wouldn't put too much confidence in the US dollar even against Thailand at this time...

I agree.  Typically when a government prints money it creates inflation and devalues the currency.  Bush spent wildly, he was outdone by double with Obama, Trump didn't stop and when then Covid pandemic hit opened the floodgates.  Just when you think they can't be more possibly irresponsible Quid Pro Quo Joe who has already spent trillions wants to add another 3.5 trillion to the pile.  Mind you 3.5 trillion seconds ago was 110,988 years ago.  This gives you some idea of the waste. 

Eventually this deck of cards will fall, the U.S. will have debt service on the amount borrowed that is greater than the tax revenue it collects.  The USA dollar will become near worthless and the world plunged into a depression that will make the original depression look like the good old days.  No nation has ever spent itself into prosperity. 

Edited October 2, 2021 by longwood50

[Benroon]

5 hours ago, nikoncam said:

this article is misleading, the thai baht is still pretty high compared to august and even then august was still higher than in january and still higher than april of last year. you guys writing these articles need to learn how to read charts. right now the baht is trending upwards.

I think this is specifically the dollar, other currencies won't necessarily follow suit

The pound has dropped nearly 3% in the last few months.

Once again the baht is strong due to dollar reserves there is no 'manipulation'

[Benroon]

4 hours ago, WilliamG said:

Not according to the chart on my Currency app. A downward trend for the last 12 months against both USD & GBP.

GBP was 46.8 in August and 45.4 now - which way up are you holding that graph ? 

[WilliamG]

24 minutes ago, Soidog said:

Yes let’s hope so. The attached is what the “experts” think will happen over the coming years. Next year looks promising, but still nothing near the highs we’ve discussed. While early 50’s will feel far better, I’m sure some politician or bank governor will open their mouth a spoil it. 
 

It always amazes me that Thailand can have street protests, military coups, natural disasters, late to vaccinate against Covid and yet nothing seems to really damage the baht. The Boris’s dog gets a cold and the Pound falls 2% in a day. Baffling! 

Can you give us the lottery numbers for each month as well please.

[WilliamG]

14 minutes ago, Benroon said:

GBP was 46.8 in August and 45.4 now - which way up are you holding that graph ? 

Trend, not specific monthly values.

[Soidog]

7 minutes ago, WilliamG said:

Can you give us the lottery numbers for each month as well please.

Exactly. Like most predictions, it will turn out to be wrong. I’m hoping they have undercooked their predictions. 

[Griff1315]

Another few years with these clowns in charge and you never know the skies the limit, 50, 60, 70 stop me when your happy....

[Fester]

1 hour ago, Soidog said:

Correct. That’s why I think we were tripping on terminology. The USD has risen against the THB and the THB has fallen against the USD. We are in agreement

Hooray!

[Marc26]

7 hours ago, nikoncam said:

this article is misleading, the thai baht is still pretty high compared to august and even then august was still higher than in january and still higher than april of last year. you guys writing these articles need to learn how to read charts. right now the baht is trending upwards.

Huh?

I think you may need to retake that chart class 5555

 

https://www.google.com/search?ie=UTF-8&client=ms-android-bell-ca-revc&source=android-browser&q=usdthb

[Convert54]

If in the overall equations put about that it actually results in a genuine reduction in relative "value" against  all major currencies then the applause by expats will quickly dissolve due to internal inflationary pressure.Ask why is it that some nations retain sometimes substantial $US reserves in some form yet borrow against in preference to expending them?

 

 

[MikeTexas]

So yes it has dropped to the USD in the last 12 months of COVID BUT over the last 2-5yrs is it doing about average.  FX rate in early 2020 while I was traveling in Thailand was 31-32Bhat to USD and now it is 33.  Not a huge difference and that will fluctuate up and down daily. 

[dj230]

10 hours ago, stuhan said:

I'm not complaining about that,my uk pensions are worth more now. Make the most of it while it lasts.

Not sure how it works in thailand but in Canada if the canadian dollar drops, the price of goods goes up so it essentially works out to be the same for those holding foreign currency, its those holding the local currency that suffer (TBH) because they will be able to buy less.

[Bob20]

3 hours ago, Soidog said:

Yes let’s hope so. The attached is what the “experts” think will happen over the coming years. Next year looks promising, but still nothing near the highs we’ve discussed. While early 50’s will feel far better, I’m sure some politician or bank governor will open their mouth a spoil it. 
 

It always amazes me that Thailand can have street protests, military coups, natural disasters, late to vaccinate against Covid and yet nothing seems to really damage the baht. The Boris’s dog gets a cold and the Pound falls 2% in a day. Baffling! 

 

One amazing reason:

 

The Bank of Thailand and the People’s Bank of China has renewed the Chinese Yuan - Thai Baht Bilateral Currency Swap Arrangement (BSA). 

         This BSA allows for the exchange of local currencies up to RMB 70 billion or THB 370 billion for a period of five years, starting from 22 December 2020.

 

Bank of Thailand
8 January 2021

 

[Soidog]

44 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

One amazing reason:

The Bank of Thailand and the People’s Bank of China has renewed the Chinese Yuan - Thai Baht Bilateral Currency Swap Arrangement (BSA). 

         This BSA allows for the exchange of local currencies up to RMB 70 billion or THB 370 billion for a period of five years, starting from 22 December 2020.

Bank of Thailand
8 January 2021

Can you explain a bit more @Bob20 how that play out in regard to exchange rates? Does this allow an artificial strengthening of the baht? 

[JamesE]

9 hours ago, nikoncam said:

this article is misleading, the thai baht is still pretty high compared to august and even then august was still higher than in january and still higher than april of last year. you guys writing these articles need to learn how to read charts. right now the baht is trending upwards.

High = ฿/$, Low = $/฿. Gotta keep that in mind when reading articles instead of charts.

[Bob20]

6 minutes ago, Soidog said:

Can you explain a bit more @Bob20 how that play out in regard to exchange rates? Does this allow an artificial strengthening of the baht? 

It's my understanding that a bilateral currency swap agreement can be used to influence the exchange rate, as a country can borrow at will at any time.

A currency swap between the two countries is an agreement or contract to exchange currencies with predetermined terms and conditions.

[JamesE]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and go against the article's takeaway. The recent uptick in the Baht (I'm looking at ฿/$) was due to two things: 1) it was the end of a quarter and for many governments/companies around the world the end of their fiscal year so it's a time when a lot of money is moving around the world. 2) Uncertainty in the direction Thailand's clown car was going, vis-a-vis trying to get tourism on track, was also in flux. The quarter is over and done and the recent flood of new - more favorable - rules regarding tourism have now been set.

So what did the Baht do? Dropped 0.5 against the dollar.

Wise was quoting 34 and change on Thursday now it's less than 33.6

There was a pretty strong channel working between 32.5 and 33.6 until last week. Then the pop hit and quickly burst and the Baht moved back down into the previous channel.

So rather than guess what's going to happen, look at two things: what happens Monday, and what happens Tuesday. If Monday is another uptick of 0.10 or so then the channel may have been reset to +/-33.5-34.1 if it doesn't move up then I think we're back from a short deviation out of the channel due to the special conditions mentioned above. A drop down on Tuesday would indicate that we may be testing the bottom of the channel at +/-32.5.

As always with the Thai Baht, keep your arms and legs inside the ride at all times and make sure your seatbelts are securely fastened.

 

[PapayaBokBok]

13 hours ago, billywillyjones said:

The way ole dementia Joe is spending I wouldn't put too much confidence in the US dollar even against Thailand at this time...

Maybe more tax cuts to the rich will fix it--like the Former Guy did......

Joe spends for Americans---The Former Guy is was pay to play........Cry More

[stuhan]

8 hours ago, dj230 said:

Not sure how it works in thailand but in Canada if the canadian dollar drops, the price of goods goes up so it essentially works out to be the same for those holding foreign currency, its those holding the local currency that suffer (TBH) because they will be able to buy less.

I am no expert on money, all i see is i get more B from my uk pensions when the B is  45-46B  rather than 39-40B as it was a while back to 1 GBP and that means goods i buy are costing me less.