News Forum - Reopening Pattaya: Will it happen next week or not?

[Thaiger]

Depending on which government officials you are listening to and what statement they make on which day, it would be easy to believe that Thailand’s reopening is continuing on October 1, or October 15, or possibly November 1. And Pattaya is perhaps reopening in just over a week or perhaps delaying for weeks or months. So where does the reopening plan actually stand? As of now, there are no official reopening plans, though many have been stated and put forward but not officially ratified. The Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration is meeting today with the Tourism Authority of Thailand, the Ministry […]

The post Reopening Pattaya: Will it happen next week or not? appeared first on Thaiger News.

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[Rip255]

Reporting from the ground in Pattaya. Everyones ready to open again. Peoples attitude to Covid ranges from slighly concerned to completely indifferent at this point 

Everyone I know here is either vaxxed or doesnt want it 

It's a sweet spot at the moment where expats have the run of the place. No one is overly concerned about covid that I speak too. But alas it must come to an end so the locals can go back to earning a quid. 

Dont even wear masks in the massage shops. I dont drink but bars are closed. Although you can see everyone has improvised and now alcohol is seen being consumed in a number of other, more inventive settings. 

[Soidog]

No!

[JohninDublin]

This is a public health issue, so instead of setting targets for opening dates, why are they not setting targets for mitigation of CV? 

There are a multitude of posts on this and other fora from those who say that they will not be coming to TH anytime soon because of quarantine restrictions on arrival, or because TH is red-listed in their own countries, or because bars remain closed. These are all PH issues, and explain why the Phuket Sandbox has failed to attract anywhere the numbers that were predicted by both Phuket and TAT.

It's about time somebody in power recognised that while TH remains red-listed in so many countries, people are not going to be able to visit if they are going to have to enter quarantine at either or both ends of the trip, especially now that the lengthy "school-holiday" window enjoyed in the west, has closed. Thus, even those people who love the idea of lazing on a deserted beach, regardless of the entertainment being closed, are unlikely to visit.

If I was advising TAT, etc, I would be saying, "Set yourself a target of say, <average 2k new infections per day over 7days combined with 70% fully vaxxed population using an effective vax, with visitors being fully vaxxed and a PCR test on arrival. On achieving that target, reduce quarantine to await the result of the PCR tests. From there, reopen entertainment at say <1k new infections on the 7 day rolling average".

Yesterday TH reported the 12th greatest number of new-infections on the planet. Reducing it to under 2k per day, would place TH at 38th, with a lot of those countries already green listed by others. However, if you are comparing new cases per million in the past 7 days, TH's ranking improves to 59th. At 2k per day, it improves to 139th. 

It's taken 6 weeks to reduce the current infection from it's peak to 50% of that. Carry on at that rate, and 2k a day is achievable by about Jan 1st. 

The longer it takes for the TH gov etc, to realise that the issue as far as the rest of the world is about Public Health and the risk TH represents to other countries, they are not going to get the tourist economy back on track.

[mnan]

will double jabbed travellers be able to do this without quarantine ??

 

[Chaimai]

1 minute ago, mnan said:

will double jabbed travellers be able to do this without quarantine ??

 

 

What difference does being double-jabbed make?

[mnan]

2 minutes ago, Chaimai said:

What difference does being double-jabbed make?

elsewhere around the world if you have this no quarantine just a second day test

[Chaimai]

1 hour ago, mnan said:

elsewhere around the world if you have this no quarantine just a second day test

 

So "None" in Thailand......... as in literally Zero.

[ace035]

Delay it until Nov 1st, as long the entertainment or nightlife venues are still closed which not the issues for reopening or else will be huge outbreak again & Thailand will be back to square one to close forever anymore.

[EdwardV]

13 hours ago, Thaiger said:

on October 1, or October 15, or possibly November 1.

Sounds a lot like November 1. Not a bad thing especially if they are not ready. If Phuket is any guide, Pattaya will lose at least half of the high season if not all of it. Of course that's a relative statement. 

[Soidog]

14 hours ago, JohninDubin said:

esterday TH reported the 12th greatest number of new-infections on the planet. Reducing it to under 2k per day, would place TH at 38th, with a lot of those countries already green listed by others. However, if you are comparing new cases per million in the past 7 days, TH's ranking improves to 59th. At 2k per day, it improves to 139th

The important measure when it comes to lifting Red list status is the so called “Positivity Rate”. This is the measure of positive tests compared to the number of tests. This addresses the issue of simply reducing the number of cases by testing less. Even if you only test 100 people, if 30 of them are positive, it is still 30%. Typically, 5% is seen as a level at which it is safe to move a country to a green travel lists. There are other factors such as vaccination rate, but positivity is key. Currently, Thailand has a staggering 30% compared to 3.2% of the U.K.  until this figure reduces to below 10% it’s unlikely Thailand will be moved off red lists. It’s has fallen from a high of 38% on August 17 but a long way to go. See attached link and graph. 
 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed?tab=chart&country=THA~GBR

[Bangkok_Gary]

When it re-opens I will watch from a safe distance halfway around the world to see what happens. I am not going to pay to come to Thailand to be a guinea pig.

[TiT]

No reason to come back even if it does open November 1st.  You would be smart to watch by the sidelines for a month until at least December 1st and then make a judgment call if its still worth it.

[Rain]

11 hours ago, mnan said:

elsewhere around the world if you have this no quarantine just a second day test

On the contrary, numerous countries are still requiring full term quarantine regardless of one's vaccination status.

[AdvocatusDiaboli]

20 hours ago, Soidog said:

No!

Well succinct and answers of brevity and that don’t allow for any confusion will not get you a position in this current Thai government cabinet!

[Nipral]

This country has always been, is and will remain until the end of times a mess !!!

[Griff1315]

6 hours ago, TiT said:

No reason to come back even if it does open November 1st.  You would be smart to watch by the sidelines for a month until at least December 1st and then make a judgment call if its still worth it.

December 1st 2022 sounds good.

[Stonker]

17 hours ago, mnan said:

elsewhere around the world if you have this no quarantine just a second day test

Sorry, but "elsewhere" isn't "everywhere", and most countries that do allow that have a high (70%+) vaccination rate, while most that don't allow it, like Thailand, have a low vaccination rate (30%-).

[Soidog]

22 minutes ago, Nipral said:

This country has always been, is and will remain until the end of times a mess !!!

It’s hard to see anything positive happening in Thailand while the current political and hierarchical system remains in place. The underlying problem with all such countries and the entire continent of Africa lies in one word CORRUPTION. Until a political party or higher authority decides they want to be viewed by history as the people who improved their country, then it won’t change. It seems many may start off with good intentions, though as the saying goes - Power corrupts. It’s so frustrating and often upsetting when you come from a country with low levels of corruption and then see what it does to a country. Not enough international effort is made to address it. 

[JohninDublin]

9 hours ago, Soidog said:

The important measure when it comes to lifting Red list status is the so called “Positivity Rate”. This is the measure of positive tests compared to the number of tests. This addresses the issue of simply reducing the number of cases by testing less. Even if you only test 100 people, if 30 of them are positive, it is still 30%. Typically, 5% is seen as a level at which it is safe to move a country to a green travel lists. There are other factors such as vaccination rate, but positivity is key. Currently, Thailand has a staggering 30% compared to 3.2% of the U.K.  until this figure reduces to below 10% it’s unlikely Thailand will be moved off red lists. It’s has fallen from a high of 38% on August 17 but a long way to go. See attached link and graph. 
 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed?tab=chart&country=THA~GBR

You are right, but as I said, the problem remains a Public Health Emergency, and that's the bit that those lobbying for re-opening are failing to grasp.

[Soidog]

25 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

You are right, but as I said, the problem remains a Public Health Emergency, and that's the bit that those lobbying for re-opening are failing to grasp.

Couldn’t agree more

[Billy]

On 9/23/2021 at 6:17 PM, JohninDubin said:

This is a public health issue, so instead of setting targets for opening dates, why are they not setting targets for mitigation of CV? 

There are a multitude of posts on this and other fora from those who say that they will not be coming to TH anytime soon because of quarantine restrictions on arrival, or because TH is red-listed in their own countries, or because bars remain closed. These are all PH issues, and explain why the Phuket Sandbox has failed to attract anywhere the numbers that were predicted by both Phuket and TAT.

It's about time somebody in power recognised that while TH remains red-listed in so many countries, people are not going to be able to visit if they are going to have to enter quarantine at either or both ends of the trip, especially now that the lengthy "school-holiday" window enjoyed in the west, has closed. Thus, even those people who love the idea of lazing on a deserted beach, regardless of the entertainment being closed, are unlikely to visit.

If I was advising TAT, etc, I would be saying, "Set yourself a target of say, <average 2k new infections per day over 7days combined with 70% fully vaxxed population using an effective vax, with visitors being fully vaxxed and a PCR test on arrival. On achieving that target, reduce quarantine to await the result of the PCR tests. From there, reopen entertainment at say <1k new infections on the 7 day rolling average".

Yesterday TH reported the 12th greatest number of new-infections on the planet. Reducing it to under 2k per day, would place TH at 38th, with a lot of those countries already green listed by others. However, if you are comparing new cases per million in the past 7 days, TH's ranking improves to 59th. At 2k per day, it improves to 139th. 

It's taken 6 weeks to reduce the current infection from it's peak to 50% of that. Carry on at that rate, and 2k a day is achievable by about Jan 1st. 

The longer it takes for the TH gov etc, to realise that the issue as far as the rest of the world is about Public Health and the risk TH represents to other countries, they are not going to get the tourist economy back on track.

2k a day means TH will never open.

Covid is here to stay same as the flu. The daily numbers of new infections in a vaccinated society ( > 70% ) is totally irrelevant,  its the number off hospitalisations that matter. As the vac % increases in TH pressure in the hospitals will reduce.

Its only the dumb leaders of many countries that just can't work this out. TH, Aust and NZ to name a few are  in this boat.

[Chaimai]

1 hour ago, Billy said:

2k a day means TH will never open.

Covid is here to stay same as the flu. The daily numbers of new infections in a vaccinated society ( > 70% ) is totally irrelevant,  its the number off hospitalisations that matter. As the vac % increases in TH pressure in the hospitals will reduce.

Its only the dumb leaders of many countries that just can't work this out. TH, Aust and NZ to name a few are  in this boat.

 

1 hour ago, Billy said:

2k a day means TH will never open.

Covid is here to stay same as the flu. The daily numbers of new infections in a vaccinated society ( > 70% ) is totally irrelevant,  its the number off hospitalisations that matter. As the vac % increases in TH pressure in the hospitals will reduce.

Its only the dumb leaders of many countries that just can't work this out. TH, Aust and NZ to name a few are  in this boat.

 

 

Spot on.

 

 

[gummy]

Perhaps certain people do not want Thailand to open let alone Pattaya. Imagine it; Certain people wanting to live in their own make believe isolated world where they can do as they please to whom they please when they please. Of course totally delusionary and unsustainable but given how this country has plummeted down all manner of rankings in the last few years, then nothing would surprise me.

[JohninDublin]

6 hours ago, Billy said:

2k a day means TH will never open.

Covid is here to stay same as the flu. The daily numbers of new infections in a vaccinated society ( > 70% ) is totally irrelevant,  its the number off hospitalisations that matter. As the vac % increases in TH pressure in the hospitals will reduce.

Its only the dumb leaders of many countries that just can't work this out. TH, Aust and NZ to name a few are  in this boat.

I don't know how NZ makes your list. They had at one time eradicated CV, but then allowed a couple of infected Brits into the country to visit a sick relative, and have not been able to rid themselves of the problem since.

Of the 221 territories listed on worldometers.com, NZ ranks 21st in terms of lowest death rates per capita with just 5 deaths per million.