News Forum - Re-opening of Bangkok pushed back 2 weeks to reach 70% vaccination goal

[AdvocatusDiaboli]

47 minutes ago, AlexPTY said:

actually, i think it's a good idea, November 1st would be better... January 1st would be my guess, let's run a poll for beer money

Maybe the 1st April? ….. but I think I will stick with my NFL fantasy league. More chance of winning.

[Bob20]

1 minute ago, AdvocatusDiaboli said:

Maybe the 1st April? ….. but I think I will stick with my NFL fantasy league. More chance of winning.

Joke right?

[AdvocatusDiaboli]

1 minute ago, Bob20 said:

Joke right?

You know me so well! 

[JamesE]

11 hours ago, Stonker said:

Maybe I missed it the last time I was in Bangkok, but where is the only bridge out of the sprawling capital so that the "Phuket model" can be "translated" for Bangkok?

You, sir, are blessed with a keen sense of the obvious.

The "bridge" exists two places: First - in the people themselves. Exactly how many people do you estimate are sitting around their squalid little flats, pictures and maps taped to the walls, trying to plan their escape from the Sandbox? It's a zero-margin game. If they're planning anything, it's what to do in BKK (or whatever Sandbox they select) for two weeks. Sure, there are a very few people who will try to make the great escape. But to where? Without that precious QR code that shows you're legit your ability to go do fun stuff (like not check in to a ฿100/night hotel) will be limited. And the authorities will be looking for you and your little passport. Because of...

... the second bridge: The front desk at your SHA+ hotel which by law is checking you in every night under the guise of health monitoring and you, as the guest, have to record the information in the app and then show the front desk the QR code. You miss a night and Somchai is going to come ask you some questions.

I'm not disputing that people might try and make a run for it, only that the number of people who want to do that - after spending all the time, money, and effort to get through the entry hoops - is going to be so small that it won't matter (statistically) in the overall scheme of things.

[Stonker]

2 hours ago, JamesE said:

You, sir, are blessed with a keen sense of the obvious.

The "bridge" exists two places: First - in the people themselves. Exactly how many people do you estimate are sitting around their squalid little flats, pictures and maps taped to the walls, trying to plan their escape from the Sandbox? It's a zero-margin game. If they're planning anything, it's what to do in BKK (or whatever Sandbox they select) for two weeks. Sure, there are a very few people who will try to make the great escape. But to where? Without that precious QR code that shows you're legit your ability to go do fun stuff (like not check in to a ฿100/night hotel) will be limited. And the authorities will be looking for you and your little passport. Because of...

... the second bridge: The front desk at your SHA+ hotel which by law is checking you in every night under the guise of health monitoring and you, as the guest, have to record the information in the app and then show the front desk the QR code. You miss a night and Somchai is going to come ask you some questions.

I'm not disputing that people might try and make a run for it, only that the number of people who want to do that - after spending all the time, money, and effort to get through the entry hoops - is going to be so small that it won't matter (statistically) in the overall scheme of things.

What you've overlooked, as the authorities may have done, is that the "Phuket model" doesn't just apply to Sandboxers, it applies to EVERYONE on Phuket who is checked at the bridge.

If you don't apply the same in Bangkok it isn't the "Phuket model" but a completely different one, where nobody apart from Sandboxers is checked and it's hard to see any point to it at all as it's hardly any better than nothing.

[JamesE]

22 minutes ago, Stonker said:

What you've overlooked, as the authorities may have done, is that the "Phuket model" doesn't just apply to Sandboxers, it applies to EVERYONE on Phuket who is checked at the bridge.

If you don't apply the same in Bangkok it isn't the "Phuket model" but a completely different one, where nobody apart from Sandboxers is checked and it's hard to see any point to it at all as it's hardly any better than nothing.

Which is why it was delayed for two weeks to nominally allow the locals to reach "herd immunity". (Which I realize is pie-in-the-sky propaganda.) I think we're all looking at this kind of backwards. Despite the rhetoric and testing demands and paperwork the goal of the sandboxes has been to see if the tourists would get infected by the locals, not the other way around. Since the majority of positive tests have occurred at the arrival or 5-day tests which would indicate (statistically, when compared to the day-12 results) a pre-flight infection, the test was a success.

What Phuket's self-isolation has proven as well is that local transmission doesn't care about such things. Cases have increased dramatically in Phuket over the past 10 weeks so, with or without the bridge, a Sandbox works for tourists, SHA+ works for helping to protect those tourists, and that using Sandboxes elsewhere - paperwork, tests, and all - remain a viable option for beginning to resurrect international travel to Thailand.

Unfortunately, I think it's also proven that the Vaccine Cocktail plan is worthless. Positive cases, hospitalizations, and deaths have remained at unsustainable high levels despite 81% of the island having their vaccines and over 90% being partially vaccinated.

[Soidog]

17 hours ago, JamesE said:

I think this is the easy part. Anybody breaking the rules will be red-stamped and sent to the airport. My guess is that they'll just translate the Phuket model elsewhere with the same checks and monitoring. Some people will get around it but the SHA Plus completion document is required any time you go somewhere new.

I don’t think they need to worry about foreigners turning up and spreading this around. It’s the hundreds of thousands of local people who will be moving about spreading it. This is a virus which is now fully out of control and deep within the local population. The few hundred a day who may turn up from outside of Thailand fully vaccinated isn’t the problem. They may as well open to foreigners, it won’t make any impact on what they are dealing with locally. The countries from where these people departed from just need to make sure they are either not allowed back, or require proper hotel quarantine. It’s what the U.K. red list means and other countries need to protect themselves from travellers to Thailand.   

[MrStretch]

21 hours ago, Stonker said:

So ... 32% of residents aren't fully vaccinated and they will be within a month?

No, to make their goal that needs to met by the end of September.

Remember, your vaccination isn't considered "fully effective" until two weeks after your last shot.  So, in order for this...

23 hours ago, Thaiger said:

the capital’s re-opening will be pushed back to October 15

...to happen, these people need to be vaccinated by October 1st.

Ain't gonna happen!

[Stonker]

12 hours ago, JamesE said:

Which is why it was delayed for two weeks to nominally allow the locals to reach "herd immunity". (Which I realize is pie-in-the-sky propaganda.) I think we're all looking at this kind of backwards. Despite the rhetoric and testing demands and paperwork the goal of the sandboxes has been to see if the tourists would get infected by the locals, not the other way around. Since the majority of positive tests have occurred at the arrival or 5-day tests which would indicate (statistically, when compared to the day-12 results) a pre-flight infection, the test was a success.

What Phuket's self-isolation has proven as well is that local transmission doesn't care about such things. Cases have increased dramatically in Phuket over the past 10 weeks so, with or without the bridge, a Sandbox works for tourists, SHA+ works for helping to protect those tourists, and that using Sandboxes elsewhere - paperwork, tests, and all - remain a viable option for beginning to resurrect international travel to Thailand.

Unfortunately, I think it's also proven that the Vaccine Cocktail plan is worthless. Positive cases, hospitalizations, and deaths have remained at unsustainable high levels despite 81% of the island having their vaccines and over 90% being partially vaccinated.

You're still missing two problems: one for tourists and one for locals.

For tourists, yes, they'll be able to leave Bangkok after 14 days.

Whoopee.

Unfortunately a lot of other provinces have imposed a 14 day self-quarantine period for arrivals from "dark red" provinces as so many clusters originated from Bangkok.

While locals can go and hide in the hills and on the farms, tourists are rather more obvious so it's "welcome to Loei province. We hope you enjoyed your 14 day stay in Bangkok seeing the sights, but now you've got 14 days seeing the inside of your hotel bedroom. Nobody warned you? Oh dear ..."

The problem for locals is that although 20% of the population have been vaccinated most of those are in Bangkok, Phuket, and dark red provinces so as soon as any travel restrictions are off those who are vaccinated may be safer but those who aren't are screwed.

... and even a lot of the vaccinated are screwed too, as not only did half get Sinovax but they got it up to six or seven months ago, as far back as February, so it's not just useless crap but completely useless crap.

[Stonker]

On 9/16/2021 at 9:23 AM, Bob20 said:

They already opened interprovincial travel and in CM cases have since doubled to quadrupled.

Starting another insane experiment early will make the infections spike further.

And because the vaccination rates are not even a fraction of Bangkok's, the result will be regrettable again.

2 weeks delay isn't enough.

They just don't learn...

Agreed 100% @Bob20, but that's up to Chiang Mai.

They're fully within their rights to impose a 14 day self-quarantine period for arrivals from Bangkok as other provinces have done ...

... so tourists can enjoy their 14 days seeing the sights in Bangkok or Phuket, but if they go to Loei or some other provinces they then get 14 days enjoying the inside of their hotel bedroom.

Oops ... didn't anyone tell them ?

[Bob20]

You can't make this up

 

[AdvocatusDiaboli]

6 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

You can't make this up

You can … but today ….

Chiang Mai reports 42 new coronavirus cases

 Covid-19 epidemic situation  Chiang Mai province today (17 Sept. 21) found 42 new cases, 27 of them in the province and 15 from the provinces,

 Chiang Mai Vaccine Management Division  Currently, there are 909,985 people who wish to be vaccinated, 532,462 people have been vaccinated, representing 42.22% of the target, divided into the elderly 60 years and over, 157,040 people have been vaccinated, or 47.92%.  Group 7, chronic disease, 67,106 people injected, accounting for 55.40%, and the general public, 308,316 people, accounting for 37.95% …

… though is vaccinated one shot or two?

[Bob20]

3 minutes ago, AdvocatusDiaboli said:

You can … but today ….

Chiang Mai reports 42 new coronavirus cases

 Covid-19 epidemic situation  Chiang Mai province today (17 Sept. 21) found 42 new cases, 27 of them in the province and 15 from the provinces,

 Chiang Mai Vaccine Management Division  Currently, there are 909,985 people who wish to be vaccinated, 532,462 people have been vaccinated, representing 42.22% of the target, divided into the elderly 60 years and over, 157,040 people have been vaccinated, or 47.92%.  Group 7, chronic disease, 67,106 people injected, accounting for 55.40%, and the general public, 308,316 people, accounting for 37.95% …

… though is vaccinated one shot or two?

Last Sunday Chiang Mai was promised 29.000 doses.

So I think they now include looking at the vaccine in the vaccination count...

[AdvocatusDiaboli]

2 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

So I think they now include looking at the vaccine in the vaccination count...

hope this is not what the expect me to do next week!

[AdvocatusDiaboli]

1 minute ago, Bob20 said:

Just announced: Thailand stays on UK red-list

In reality …. To be expected. Only people that thought they would be removed from this list was the TAT.

[Bob20]

19 minutes ago, AdvocatusDiaboli said:

In reality …. To be expected. Only people that thought they would be removed from this list was the TAT.

Yup and the ones believing in magic... 

So you said opening up the country is 1/10 (10 January). Have you decided what year yet?

[AdvocatusDiaboli]

2 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

So you said opening up the country is 1/10 (10 January). Have you decided what year yet?

Not up to me, up to the Thai PM, and we all know he is just like a pair of jandals. And also if your after a prediction from me, sorry I didn’t bring my crystal ball with me to Thailand