China helping Afghanistan

[gummy]

Now running on BBC. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-58496867

[PBS]

17 minutes ago, gummy said:

Now running on BBC. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-58496867

No surprise, Afghanistan has long been of strategic interest to PRC for it rare earth minerals and other resources. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2021/08/17/afghanistan-natural-resources-for-grabs-after-the-us-retreats-china-rises/

 

[Bob20]

China and Russia turn to each area that even remotely loosens ties with the west. 

Gets to a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation.

Do you help/support a country if you disagree with them, only to avoid them coming under the influence of China and or Russia? The democratic process (and the taxpayer) will be a huge resistance against that.

That's where China and Russia have no problems. Large populations that have absolutely no voice and very little knowledge about what happens outside their country because of restrictions in communication and fear from surveillance.

We're long past the point of no return I think.

[longwood50]

21 hours ago, Bob20 said:

hat's where China and Russia have no problems. Large populations that have absolutely no voice and very little knowledge about what happens outside their country because of restrictions in communication and fear from surveillance.

Heck with CNN, NBC, ABC, MSNBC, CBS, and most of the newspapers in the USA you could say the same about the USA.  The average person is force fed what the political establishment wants them to believe.  Plus the average person in the USA is so apathetic about keeping informed that they can't even answer basic question concerning the government. 

 

[Bob20]

True, but the USA isn't about to come under the influence/control of China or Russia just yet

My point is that smaller states that the West seems to abandon are indeed susceptible to this when they jump in with whatever aid they can provide (economic, weapons etc).

[kerryd]

17 hours ago, Bob20 said:

True, but the USA isn't about to come under the influence/control of China or Russia just yet

My point is that smaller states that the West seems to abandon are indeed susceptible to this when they jump in with whatever aid they can provide (economic, weapons etc).

Short version:
I'm sure China would love to stick Afghanistan in it's "back pocket" as well, but can you really trust drug dealing terrorists ?

Long read ahead.
It's not just the countries "abandoned". Take Cambodia for example. Their dictator has been increasingly pro-Chinese for years even while maintaining ties with (and taking aid from) the USA, because the Chinese will be more likely to help him stay in power regardless of what he does.
While the "West" would be more likely to "assist" in his removal if he starts to go full Pol Pot on his own people. (Which is probably why he's been cutting the ties with the US.)

(Note that the current leadership in Thailand, and Thaksin as well, are also very pro-Chinese despite the close ties both have/had with the "West".)

I'm sure the Taliban would love Chinese support as well, at least until they are "recognized" as the legitimate gov't of Afghanistan and have a seat at the UN.

Then they can do whatever they want with little fear as China can override any Security Council resolution targeting the Taliban.

China has to tread lightly with Afghanistan though because the Muslim world isn't happy with the whole Uighur situation in Western China. (Regardless of the true origins of that mess. Or because of it.)

Pakistan is already deep in China's pocket and is (covertly) a "state sponsor" of terrorism (for their close connections and support given to the Haqqani and Taliban terrorist groups amongst others).

China has been slowly, fairly quietly, exerting more influence across Asia, from the Pacific on one side to the east coast of Africa (namely Djibouti) on the other. Along that line, they have Cambodia, Burma, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Djibouti already in their pocket. (And Bangladesh for that matter.)

Adding Afghanistan will enhance their ambitions.

But it comes at a peril. Keep in mind that the Taliban control pretty much the entire drug trade in Afghanistan and, as of 2019 at least, were making something like $400 million a year from that alone (according to a letter to the UN Security Council from a Sanction monitoring committee).
Over 80% of the heroin in Europe originates from Afghanistan poppy fields.

So you have a hard core fundamentalist, drug dealing terrorist group running the country and they have a hate on for almost everyone that isn't "one of them".

From a Wiki article:
"Taliban have been compared to the 7th-century Kharijites for developing extreme doctrines that set them apart from both mainstream Sunni and Shiʿa Muslims. The Kharijites were particularly noted for adopting a radical approach to takfir, whereby they declared other Muslims to be unbelievers and therefore deemed them worthy of death.)

(As they seem to consider most other Islamic countries as being "watered down" Muslims and not "true believers" like themselves. Which is one of the reasons why they have no issues with attacking the ISIS in Afghanistan group or the Hazari Muslim minority.)
When Osama bin Laden decided to set up shop in Afghanistan, he declared Afghanistan (then under Taliban rule) as the only "Islamic" country in the Muslim world.

Note: The Taliban are, more or less, Sunni Muslims while the Hazari are mostly Shia, with a large Sunni minority.
(The "Hazaras" are a "people" like the Kurds and Uighurs and Rohingya and while most are "Muslim", they don't all follow the same dictates. The Hazaras make are the 3rd largest ethnic group in Afghanistan and one of the most persecuted.)

One must also keep in mind what else is going on in the region (with regards to China). For example, the issues they are having in their Western provinces with the Muslim minorities.
The whole "South China Sea" issue (where they are claiming territorial rights to the entire area and building air bases on built-up atolls to enforce their claims).

As well as the unresolved border issues they are having with India that lead to hand-to-hand clashes and the deaths of numerous soldiers recently.
(In the area that they are both trying to claim, they have an agreement that neither side can be "armed" so they ended up in hand-to-hand combat, fighting with sticks and rocks. The Indians apparently got their butts kicked (literally) and China (allegedly) transferred some units made up mostly of members of "sports clubs" to the area.)
"Sports Clubs" in China are more "Martial Arts Schools" than sports clubs and they  which are basically "fight clubs" (insert joke about the "first rule of fight club" here). Their "members" are all experts in hand-to-hand fighting.

China and India don't get along. Pakistan and India (obviously) don't get along. China is friends with Pakistan.
Afghanistan shares a border with Pakistan (obviously) but also has a sliver of territory in the far North-East that borders with China.

India was making overtures with Afghanistan - before the Taliban took over. My understanding is that a lot of them have left the country now though that doesn't make the news (in the West).

China is, slowly, developing the ability to "project power" across a wide region of Asia and their motives are not altruistic (well-meaning). They aren't building all those infrastructure projects and giving out all those "Belt and Road Initiative" (BRI) loans out of the goodness of their hearts.
(They have stated that, even in the current situation, they expect those loans and a moderate amount of interest to be repaid. One report I just read said they had over $149 billion loaned out just in BRI loans.)

I can imagine what happens if indebted countries can't make good on their payments. Probably have to concede control of certain things (like the infrastructure projects they borrowed money to construct). Maybe agree to "dual use" agreements allowing the Chinese to station military equipment on air bases or in naval ports (like they've done with many of the countries previously mentioned).
Maybe grant concessions on mineral/resource rights. 
You know, things that will benefit China, not the country that owes China.

(One advantage of a communist gov't is that you can plan things decades, even generations, in advance because you rarely have to worry about being replaced in an election every 4-5 years like most Western politicians do.)

Afghanistan will be the veritable "double edged sword" (something cuts both ways) when it comes to dealing with China.
China wants the resources and influence. The Taliban want the recognition (and the "protection").

China doesn't want the fundamentalism or the drugs. The Taliban doesn't want non-Muslim interference or any restrictions on how they do things.

I don't think either side would tolerate the other for long, especially if either thinks the other is doing something they don't like.
China won't put up with any BS for long and the Taliban don't dare let them get away with anything for fear of being seen as "weak" (and thus ripe for replacement).

Another powder keg ready to go. Just needs the match to get a little closer to the fuse and **** will get real again.

But hey ! Maybe I'm wrong and they'll end up being BFFs and staunch allies forever ! (A billion people would probably instantly piss themselves laughing so hard at that idea.)

When the Taliban signed the "peace deal" with the US in Feb 2020 (the Doha Agreement) I noted that I doubted the ink on the signatures would even be dry before the Taliban violated parts of the agreement and I was right. 
They literally didn't change a single thing in the way they were doing things before signing the agreement, while the US ignored their transgressions and started the withdrawal.

I seriously doubt it would be any different with the Chinese. Any deals/agreements they make with the Taliban won't be worth the paper they're written on.

[gummy]

1 hour ago, kerryd said:

Short version:
I'm sure China would love to stick Afghanistan in it's "back pocket" as well, but can you really trust drug dealing terrorists ?

Long read ahead.
It's not just the countries "abandoned". Take Cambodia for example. Their dictator has been increasingly pro-Chinese for years even while maintaining ties with (and taking aid from) the USA, because the Chinese will be more likely to help him stay in power regardless of what he does.
While the "West" would be more likely to "assist" in his removal if he starts to go full Pol Pot on his own people. (Which is probably why he's been cutting the ties with the US.)

(Note that the current leadership in Thailand, and Thaksin as well, are also very pro-Chinese despite the close ties both have/had with the "West".)

I'm sure the Taliban would love Chinese support as well, at least until they are "recognized" as the legitimate gov't of Afghanistan and have a seat at the UN.

Then they can do whatever they want with little fear as China can override any Security Council resolution targeting the Taliban.

China has to tread lightly with Afghanistan though because the Muslim world isn't happy with the whole Uighur situation in Western China. (Regardless of the true origins of that mess. Or because of it.)

Pakistan is already deep in China's pocket and is (covertly) a "state sponsor" of terrorism (for their close connections and support given to the Haqqani and Taliban terrorist groups amongst others).

China has been slowly, fairly quietly, exerting more influence across Asia, from the Pacific on one side to the east coast of Africa (namely Djibouti) on the other. Along that line, they have Cambodia, Burma, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Djibouti already in their pocket. (And Bangladesh for that matter.)

Adding Afghanistan will enhance their ambitions.

But it comes at a peril. Keep in mind that the Taliban control pretty much the entire drug trade in Afghanistan and, as of 2019 at least, were making something like $400 million a year from that alone (according to a letter to the UN Security Council from a Sanction monitoring committee).
Over 80% of the heroin in Europe originates from Afghanistan poppy fields.

So you have a hard core fundamentalist, drug dealing terrorist group running the country and they have a hate on for almost everyone that isn't "one of them".

From a Wiki article:
"Taliban have been compared to the 7th-century Kharijites for developing extreme doctrines that set them apart from both mainstream Sunni and Shiʿa Muslims. The Kharijites were particularly noted for adopting a radical approach to takfir, whereby they declared other Muslims to be unbelievers and therefore deemed them worthy of death.)

(As they seem to consider most other Islamic countries as being "watered down" Muslims and not "true believers" like themselves. Which is one of the reasons why they have no issues with attacking the ISIS in Afghanistan group or the Hazari Muslim minority.)
When Osama bin Laden decided to set up shop in Afghanistan, he declared Afghanistan (then under Taliban rule) as the only "Islamic" country in the Muslim world.

Note: The Taliban are, more or less, Sunni Muslims while the Hazari are mostly Shia, with a large Sunni minority.
(The "Hazaras" are a "people" like the Kurds and Uighurs and Rohingya and while most are "Muslim", they don't all follow the same dictates. The Hazaras make are the 3rd largest ethnic group in Afghanistan and one of the most persecuted.)

One must also keep in mind what else is going on in the region (with regards to China). For example, the issues they are having in their Western provinces with the Muslim minorities.
The whole "South China Sea" issue (where they are claiming territorial rights to the entire area and building air bases on built-up atolls to enforce their claims).

As well as the unresolved border issues they are having with India that lead to hand-to-hand clashes and the deaths of numerous soldiers recently.
(In the area that they are both trying to claim, they have an agreement that neither side can be "armed" so they ended up in hand-to-hand combat, fighting with sticks and rocks. The Indians apparently got their butts kicked (literally) and China (allegedly) transferred some units made up mostly of members of "sports clubs" to the area.)
"Sports Clubs" in China are more "Martial Arts Schools" than sports clubs and they  which are basically "fight clubs" (insert joke about the "first rule of fight club" here). Their "members" are all experts in hand-to-hand fighting.

China and India don't get along. Pakistan and India (obviously) don't get along. China is friends with Pakistan.
Afghanistan shares a border with Pakistan (obviously) but also has a sliver of territory in the far North-East that borders with China.

India was making overtures with Afghanistan - before the Taliban took over. My understanding is that a lot of them have left the country now though that doesn't make the news (in the West).

China is, slowly, developing the ability to "project power" across a wide region of Asia and their motives are not altruistic (well-meaning). They aren't building all those infrastructure projects and giving out all those "Belt and Road Initiative" (BRI) loans out of the goodness of their hearts.
(They have stated that, even in the current situation, they expect those loans and a moderate amount of interest to be repaid. One report I just read said they had over $149 billion loaned out just in BRI loans.)

I can imagine what happens if indebted countries can't make good on their payments. Probably have to concede control of certain things (like the infrastructure projects they borrowed money to construct). Maybe agree to "dual use" agreements allowing the Chinese to station military equipment on air bases or in naval ports (like they've done with many of the countries previously mentioned).
Maybe grant concessions on mineral/resource rights. 
You know, things that will benefit China, not the country that owes China.

(One advantage of a communist gov't is that you can plan things decades, even generations, in advance because you rarely have to worry about being replaced in an election every 4-5 years like most Western politicians do.)

Afghanistan will be the veritable "double edged sword" (something cuts both ways) when it comes to dealing with China.
China wants the resources and influence. The Taliban want the recognition (and the "protection").

China doesn't want the fundamentalism or the drugs. The Taliban doesn't want non-Muslim interference or any restrictions on how they do things.

I don't think either side would tolerate the other for long, especially if either thinks the other is doing something they don't like.
China won't put up with any BS for long and the Taliban don't dare let them get away with anything for fear of being seen as "weak" (and thus ripe for replacement).

Another powder keg ready to go. Just needs the match to get a little closer to the fuse and **** will get real again.

But hey ! Maybe I'm wrong and they'll end up being BFFs and staunch allies forever ! (A billion people would probably instantly piss themselves laughing so hard at that idea.)

When the Taliban signed the "peace deal" with the US in Feb 2020 (the Doha Agreement) I noted that I doubted the ink on the signatures would even be dry before the Taliban violated parts of the agreement and I was right. 
They literally didn't change a single thing in the way they were doing things before signing the agreement, while the US ignored their transgressions and started the withdrawal.

I seriously doubt it would be any different with the Chinese. Any deals/agreements they make with the Taliban won't be worth the paper they're written on.

Excellent piece that