News Forum - Tuesday Covid Update: 190 deaths and 14,666 new cases

[Thaiger]

190 coronavirus related-deaths were reported today, a decline over the past few weeks as the daily Covid death count has been in the 200s and hit a high of 312 on August 18. The Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration reported 14,666 new Covid-19 cases and 19,245 recoveries in the 24-hour period since the last count. Thailand now has 171,368 active Covid-19 cases, a downward trend as the number of new recoveries continues to exceed the number of new infections. In the latest and most severe wave of Covid-19, first recorded on April 1, the CCSA has recorded 1,175,866 confirmed Covid-19 cases. Out […]

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[Griff1315]

Totally unbelievable 

[MikeW]

Are the numbers actually dropping or are they just not testing as many people 

[King Cotton]

12 minutes ago, Griff1315 said:

Totally unbelievable 

Prepare to be swamped by another thousand members, posting those same 2-words. 'Why are those numbers so unbelievable?' the PHD must be wondering . . . presuming they see the TT input, that is!

[Soidog]

Some interesting data on testing in an opinion piece in today’s Bangkok Post. 

In the Bangkok area on August 20th, there were 11,600 test compared to yesterday where 7,832 tests were done. This equates to a 32% reduction in testing. Coincidentally, there were around 21,500 confirmed cases across the country on August 20th compared to 14,666 yesterday. A 32% reduction…….

[stuhan]

Correct or incorrect, may very well be a reduction in tests, i hope not and happy to see the figures dropping and restrictions easing, hopefully Thailand will be back on the u.k amber list 14th sept.

[AdvocatusDiaboli]

30 minutes ago, Soidog said:

Some interesting data on testing in an opinion piece in today’s Bangkok Post. 

Only way for the Thai PM to save face, test less, less covid cases confirmed. Remember he promised to open the country back up by October. For that to happen far less testing needs to occur.

[9S_]

For testing, in comparison to other countries experiencing a delta outbreak, Thailand is the lowest at .08 per 1,000 people. 
 

While other countries are seeing an uptick in cases, Thailand is supposedly going down. As they say “test more you find more” and by extension “test less…
 

Source: Ourworldindata.org

[Griff1315]

2 hours ago, stuhan said:

Correct or incorrect, may very well be a reduction in tests, i hope not and happy to see the figures dropping and restrictions easing, hopefully Thailand will be back on the u.k amber list 14th sept.

I truly hope so I had a flight booked for early October 

But I very much doubt it 

Don't think the UK government are going to believe these figures any more than we do. Besides that they put us on the Red list in response to Thailand's dismal vaccine campaign.

[MrStretch]

Any shenanigans with the numbers will probably show itself in the coming weeks with the removal of some lockdown features, which will show an uptick in Thailand's new "living with it" normal.

[Griff1315]

1 hour ago, 9S_ said:

For testing, in comparison to other countries experiencing a delta outbreak, Thailand is the lowest at .08 per 1,000 people. 
 

While other countries are seeing an uptick in cases, Thailand is supposedly going down. As they say “test more you find more” and by extension “test less…
 

Source: Ourworldindata.org

Thanks for that.

The graph speaks a thousand words.

Testing is being systematically cut back to reduce the number of active cases.

[9S_]

31 minutes ago, Griff1315 said:

Thanks for that.

The graph speaks a thousand words.

Testing is being systematically cut back to reduce the number of active cases.

Also please note (maybe bad) Thailand hasn’t updated their tests performed since Aug 20, hence the chosen date of Aug 19, while the other countries have….

[stuhan]

39 minutes ago, Griff1315 said:

I truly hope so I had a flight booked for early October 

But I very much doubt it 

Don't think the UK government are going to believe these figures any more than we do. Besides that they put us on the Red list in response to Thailand's dismal vaccine campaign.

Yes, i sadly believe that too, and still the rollout is poor, but improved a little but not enough.

[Guest1]

22 hours ago, MikeW said:

Are the numbers actually dropping or are they just not testing as many people 

 

[JamesR]

On 8/31/2021 at 4:43 AM, MikeW said:

Are the numbers actually dropping or are they just not testing as many people 

Well if had to take a bet on that, you can probably guess which of the two options in your question I would put my money on?

The way the statistics are being done in Thailand I wonder if the number of cases and deaths will actually go negative and virus victims will start to come back to life?

[Mike]

Statistics are malleable (of course), and these days statistics are often weaponized, but one statistic I haven’t been a fan of is the “Covid-related deaths”.  I wish those numbers were broken down more.  I did see a chart about 6 weeks ago that did just that (see attached).

Of around 240 “Covid related deaths”, 14 were of healthy people with no co-morbidities. Some of the co-morbidities were diabetes, high blood pressure — highly fact specific inquiries as to the role of covid in the persons demise; other co-morbidities include cancer, heart attack and stroke.  Cancer, again, can be a fact specific inquiry as to the role of covid in someone’s death. Heart attack?  Stroke?  If you died of a heart attack or stroke, you died of a heart attack or stroke.  Covid likely played no role.

I guess that’s the root of my dislike for the “Covid-related deaths” number.  It’s not very accurate and inflates the numbers for no apparent purpose… other than fear mongering.  In the U.S., those numbers were inflated because hospitals were getting reimbursements from the government for every Covid patient they treated.  I don’t know about Thailand.

[JamesR]

3 hours ago, Mike said:

Statistics are malleable (of course), and these days statistics are often weaponized, but one statistic I haven’t been a fan of is the “Covid-related deaths”.  I wish those numbers were broken down more.  I did see a chart about 6 weeks ago that did just that (see attached).

Of around 240 “Covid related deaths”, 14 were of healthy people with no co-morbidities. Some of the co-morbidities were diabetes, high blood pressure — highly fact specific inquiries as to the role of covid in the persons demise; other co-morbidities include cancer, heart attack and stroke.  Cancer, again, can be a fact specific inquiry as to the role of covid in someone’s death. Heart attack?  Stroke?  If you died of a heart attack or stroke, you died of a heart attack or stroke.  Covid likely played no role.

I guess that’s the root of my dislike for the “Covid-related deaths” number.  It’s not very accurate and inflates the numbers for no apparent purpose… other than fear mongering.  In the U.S., those numbers were inflated because hospitals were getting reimbursements from the government for every Covid patient they treated.  I don’t know about Thailand.

So you seem to be saying people with high  blood pressure which can make up a large percentage of a population, cancer which nowadays with treatment is mostly recoverable and other ailments which would not normally cause death are not important, those people can just die and we ignore them even if they would have not died if they had had covid?

I agree statistics can be malleable from any direction without any form of reasoning and explanation. 

Edited September 1, 2021 by JamesR
added a line

[Mike]

1 hour ago, JamesR said:

So you seem to be saying people with high  blood pressure which can make up a large percentage of a population, cancer which nowadays with treatment is mostly recoverable and other ailments which would not normally cause death are not important, those people can just die and we ignore them even if they would have not died if they had had covid?

I agree statistics can be malleable from any direction without any form of reasoning and explanation. 

No, that’s not what I was saying.  I was trying to say that a more in depth breakdown of the numbers (more than just the blanket “covid related deaths”) is helpful — especially in Thailand where you see fewer instances on diabetes, high blood pressure and obesity.

The more specific numbers help people evaluate their personal risk. 

[Bob20]

3 hours ago, Mike said:

No, that’s not what I was saying.  I was trying to say that a more in depth breakdown of the numbers (more than just the blanket “covid related deaths”) is helpful — especially in Thailand where you see fewer instances on diabetes, high blood pressure and obesity.

The more specific numbers help people evaluate their personal risk. 

Nobody needs those data for day to day life.

Please consider this for risk assessment:

If you like to walk, it's relatively safe on the pavement. In the middle of a busy motorway less so. In the middle of a backroad may be a little less of a problem, until you're unlucky and a farmer runs you over.

I don't need to know the figures to know not to walk in the middle of a road.

Same with Covid. 

We know the risk groups. If you're in one of them, protect yourself. Not protect yourself a little, or a little bit more. Figuratively: "stay on the pavement" for your own sake.

[Mike]

1 hour ago, Bob20 said:

Nobody needs those data for day to day life.…

I hear ya…  and generally agree.  

[JamesR]

6 hours ago, Mike said:

No, that’s not what I was saying.  I was trying to say that a more in depth breakdown of the numbers (more than just the blanket “covid related deaths”) is helpful — especially in Thailand where you see fewer instances on diabetes, high blood pressure and obesity.

The more specific numbers help people evaluate their personal risk. 

But in the same way, the level of testing for diabetes, high blood pressure  is not that great in Thailand compared to the more 'richer' countries so you will still not know the overall extent to who has diabetes, high blood pressure etc.

Medicine, treatment and facilities unfortunately comes down to money as is the same with almost everything else, it costs billions to carry out such tests.

[MikeW]

17 hours ago, JamesR said:

Well if had to take a bet on that, you can probably guess which of the two options in your question I would put my money on?

The way the statistics are being done in Thailand I wonder if the number of cases and deaths will actually go negative and virus victims will start to come back to life?

The walking dead