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News Forum - 1 new death as daily Covid-19 infections in Phuket top 200


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12 minutes ago, oldcpu said:

That is not accurate.

The number of 'official' tests are published (although the occasional day is missing - or I simply can not find it). 

I note thou, the 'official' test count does not including testing via the rapid testing that is now available.  Below is an official slide from 29-August from the web..

If one looks at the slide from the day before, and subtracts the numbers, one an figure out how many 'official' accounted for tests are being done each day.  

By my rough estimate for 'official' testing, on average there was about 100 per day in June, about 200/day in July.  In August it briefly rose to about 600/day ... but its now dropped to just below 400/day.  I note thou, this does NOT include the more rapid tests, which they are doing so the actual number is higher than 400/day.  However they don't include the rapid test POSITIVE results in their daily totals, but rather they isolate the people and then perform a more official PCR test, and only then if POSITIVE include that result in the daily new case numbers.

At least that is my understanding, and if anyone knows more, please correct me, as I am keen to get this accurate.

2021-08-29-testing_640w.jpg

I know and you're right. But I consider incomplete and selected numbers irrelevant as you can't reliably so anything with them.

Until now the only thing that tells us something is the number of deaths, because we can offset them against previous years and can extrapolate them to infection up to 28 days earlier because we know deaths are approx. 0.5% of infections.

As long as as we're dealing with 250-300 deaths a day, we have 1.000.000+ monthly extra infections.

That's all we need to know in order not to open up!

 

Edited by Bob20
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12 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

As long onh as we're dealing with 250-300 deaths a day, we have 1.000.000+ monthly extra infections.

I take some comfort in Phuket ICU # of daily cases not increasing exponentially (where the daily # of new cases in Phuket does appear to be exponential) and also take comfort that the # of daily deaths in Phuket appearing to be less per capita than that in the remainder of Thailand. 

If one figures 250-300 deaths per day in Thailand for about 70-million people, that would suggest we could see maybe 2.1 to 2.5 deaths/day (on average) for Phuket - and for certain Phuket is not seeing that many deaths per day due to this virus.

I am hoping that a smaller per capita # of deaths (and smaller per capita # of serious illness) is due to the vaccinations provided, ...  where while Sinovac/AstraZeneca don't appear to be preventing infections, those vaccinations do (I hope/suspect) appear to be reducing the # of serious cases and reducing the # of deaths due to this virus in Phuket.

I think (and hope) as more vaccinations are rolled out across Thailand that the ugly infected/ill/death figures across Thailand due to this virus, are reduced.  

And like others on this thread, I think more testing is needed, to help locate where virus clusters are located, and also to give the government more information for optimal decisions.  The tests thou cost money, and I worry the funding for testing could dry up.

Edited by oldcpu
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1 minute ago, oldcpu said:

I take some comfort in Phuket ICU # of daily cases not increasing exponentially (where the daily # of new cases in Phuket does appear to be exponential) and also take comfort that the # of daily deaths in Phuket appearing to be less per capita than that in the remainder of Thailand. 

If one figures 250-300 deaths per day in Thailand for about 70-million people, that would suggest we could see maybe 2.1 to 2.5 deaths/day (on average) for Phuket - and for certain Phuket is not seeing that many deaths per day due to this virus.

I am hoping that a smaller per capita # of deaths (and smaller per capita # of serious illness) is due to the vaccinations provided, ...  where while Sinovac/AstraZeneca don't appear to be preventing infections, those vaccinations do (I hope/suspect) appear to be reducing the # of serious cases and reducing the # of deaths due to this virus in Phuket.

I think (and hope) as more vaccinations are rolled out across Thailand that the ugly infected/ill/death figures across Thailand due to this virus, are reduced.  

And like others on this thread, think more testing is needed, to help locate where virus clusters are located, and also to give the government more information for optimal decisions.  The tests thou cost money, and I worry the funding for testing could dry up.

You can't apply an average on deaths from a country to any locality.

Most cases are in Bangkok, remember? Then that's where most deaths will be too.

For the rest we don't disagree. Just that opening up with these numbers is a huge blunder. Yes, people need to be vaccinated and ideally there would be more testing so that the vaccines can skip the positive testing people and be used for others for the moment.

But until vaccination is at a high level and most people are protected, opening up will spread the virus and misery to places where now it's under control.

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9 minutes ago, oldcpu said:

I take some comfort in Phuket ICU # of daily cases not increasing exponentially

Especially if Phuket only has 49 ICU beds. 

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5 minutes ago, AdvocatusDiaboli said:

Especially if Phuket only has 49 ICU beds. 

If you go back to 10-August it was only 33 ICU beds.  Fortunately recognizing the problem they created some more and already at least one of the extra added is in use.

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18 minutes ago, oldcpu said:

Fortunately recognizing the problem they created some more and already at least one of the extra added is in use.

Only problem with this is that you cannot create ICU beds like what you do when the create the “Hospotels”.

And it looks like they would be about to create another Hospotel, going by yesterday’s numbers of total beds at 76%. 

 

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44 minutes ago, AdvocatusDiaboli said:

And it looks like they would be about to create another Hospotel, going by yesterday’s numbers of total beds at 76%. 

It's quite possible.

I take some comfort (?) In the understanding that the majority of those tested in Phuket as POSITIVE have little to no symptoms, but at present time are required to go to such facilities.  In other provinces those infected with mild or no symptoms are required to stay at home as no hospital places are available.

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9 hours ago, RWD said:

And did anyone really believe the sandbox was good for health?  It was an exercise in revenue streaming plain and simple....Same happened between NZ and AUS and their non quarantine bubble as neither country had had a local infection (NZ for over 12 months).

That is because there are very few people left in NZ as they have all gone to live and work elsewhere, I think there are about ten people left there, my daughter in law is one of them who left to work in the UK.

I suppose there was not much call for architects in NZ seeing as there are not that many people anymore. 🤣

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5 hours ago, Soidog said:

The following picture shows the data of daily tests for the U.K. and for Thailand (similar population size). As you can see, Thailand is doing around 60,000-70,000 per day compared to 600,000-800,000 in the U.K.  The more you test the more you find. I’m not suggesting infection rates are 10X higher from this test data, but they certainly aren’t as low as the numbers suggest. I’ve included the link to the data also

I believe this low level of testing and the case numbers found, is the main reason for the U.K. placing Thailand in the Red list for travel. 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-covid-19-tests-per-day?country=GBR~THA

407B435E-EE76-4C13-9A82-A6CB9718DAE8.jpeg

I have been suggesting this has been going on for the last year i.e. the figures in Thailand are so low even thought there has only been a semi-lockdown in place for such a long time and of course very few vaccines. 

A lot of people who used  'thethiager' had a go at me for a period of time when I said the figures are false but they disagreed and  said Thailand had got it right because of the few cases they had and the UK had got it wrong as we had lots of deaths due to the virus.

The real reason as you say and I agree is the UK tested millions of people and Thailand tested so few.

I said in previous posts over the many months it is not logical as anywhere in the world where people were not vaccinated to a high degree they are having lots of infections.

So it seems people (well the farangs anyway) seem to be realising they have not been given the real figures so far in Thailand. 

But other countries can see what is going on in Thailand and that is why Thailand is on their red lists as you said.

It is a pity as I have been waiting to get back to my house in Phuket for many months now, but there is no point at the moment as the UK is fully open and Phuket might go into an even bigger lockdown than it did when I was there for seven months last year.

Edited by JamesR
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4 hours ago, Soidog said:

Yes I agree. I would imagine the vast majority of that 70,000 daily tests are in and around Bangkok. They really won’t have a clue what is going on out in the sticks. Even deaths won’t be being recorded. Some old fella who has spent the last 3 years lying on his bed outside his house who then dies won’t be counted. They will have him burnt and not tested. I wouldn’t be surprised if the only people (certainly vast majority) being recorded as death due to Covid, are those who die in hospital? 

I have been saying the same sort of thing over the last year re the deaths in the many villages not being recorded as covid deaths as there is hardly any testing going on in such places and I was fobbed off for being anti-Thailand etc, now the truth may come out over the next year or so.

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11 minutes ago, JamesR said:

It is a pity as I have been waiting to get back to my house in Phuket for many months now, but there is no point at the moment as the UK is fully open and Phuket might go into an even bigger lockdown than it did when I was there for seven months last year.

The UK may be fully open, but when one looks at the number of new cases, it is no ideal situation.

I really really like the UK, but honestly, as an expat in Phuket, who doesn't go to the bars to drink, but who is able to enjoy the mostly empty beaches, relatively quiet roads, and relatively quiet tourist attractions, together with great pricing for restaurants, and whose income does not depend on tourism - I'll take Phuket at present.  Those UK new cases do not look great.

2021-08-29-uk-daily-new-cases-640w.jpg

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6 minutes ago, oldcpu said:

The UK may be fully open, but when one looks at the number of new cases, it is no ideal situation.

I really really like the UK, but honestly, as an expat in Phuket, who doesn't go to the bars to drink, but who is able to enjoy the mostly empty beaches, relatively quiet roads, and relatively quiet tourist attractions, together with great pricing for restaurants, and whose income does not depend on tourism - I'll take Phuket at present.  Those UK new cases do not look great.

2021-08-29-uk-daily-new-cases-640w.jpg

Well you have to take into account the UK is open and so of course the number of cases will rise, but look at the ratio of deaths to infections, because we are over 75% fully vaccinated in the UK there are relatively few deaths compared to the number of infections. 

I was in Phuket last year in lockdown and after a few months of only being able to walk on the beach it soon becomes very boring, it was like a ghost town and not the vibrant fun place full of friendly tourists as it usually is. 

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17 minutes ago, JamesR said:

Well you have to take into account the UK is open and so of course the number of cases will rise, but look at the ratio of deaths to infections, because we are over 75% fully vaccinated in the UK there are relatively few deaths compared to the number of infections. 

Yes that is true - and it is encouraging to read.

I could also thou say the same about Phuket. ... I think if one looks at a per capita basis, comparing Phuket to the UK, and the # of deaths per capita in Phuket in recent wave is similar. Maybe less?

17 minutes ago, JamesR said:

I was in Phuket last year in lockdown and after a few months of only being able to walk on the beach it soon becomes very boring, it was like a ghost town and not the vibrant fun place full of friendly tourists as it usually is. 

I guess it depends what you want in the place.

Edit - Phuket right now is FAR FAR FAR from the sort of lockdown that was in place in April/May last year. 

I am retired and VERY happy to see this tranquility in Phuket.  It is spoiling me - I think Phuket has not been this good since before the year 2000 - although I do feel sorry for the locals.

I find the place very FAR from being boring - but I think it depends on the activity one likes to do. 

If it were not for the fact many people are being hurt, I would hope the place does not change back to how it was before the pandemic.  But MANY people would be hurt financially, so I hope things go back - even if not so great for myself.

Edited by oldcpu
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18 hours ago, Soidog said:

The following picture shows the data of daily tests for the U.K. and for Thailand (similar population size). As you can see, Thailand is doing around 60,000-70,000 per day compared to 600,000-800,000 in the U.K.  The more you test the more you find. I’m not suggesting infection rates are 10X higher from this test data, but they certainly aren’t as low as the numbers suggest. I’ve included the link to the data also

I believe this low level of testing and the case numbers found, is the main reason for the U.K. placing Thailand in the Red list for travel. 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-covid-19-tests-per-day?country=GBR~THA

407B435E-EE76-4C13-9A82-A6CB9718DAE8.jpeg

This is great info. Thank you Soidog. Looks like the daily test is averaging around 60K-70K. With infection rate averaging 17-20K in the last week, the percentage of positives is still hovering around 28%. Pretty high in my opinion.

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Argentina, Peru, Mexico, Brazil, numerous areas in India. What have they got in common? They all knocked their Covid outbreak dead in five weeks by administering 12 mg of ivermectin. Japan also wants to give their population four tablets each, but Merck is refusing to supply the drug! About time A different approach was taken rather than following the now flawed so-called vaccine solution. Pfizer doesn’t work for Israel. 2 1/2 million people have now been given a third Pfizer shot and their cases and hospitalisations are among the highest in the world. More vaccines equal more cases, as those vaccinated become infectious, a common condition, pull out the insert on the chickenpox vaccine and it will tell you to stay away from pregnant women for six weeks. Continue with vaccination and Thailand will only head in the wrong direction.

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Ahem, ahem.  

7 minutes ago, Cg66 said:

Argentina, Peru, Mexico, Brazil, numerous areas in India. What have they got in common? They all knocked their Covid outbreak dead in five weeks by administering 12 mg of ivermectin.

The topic is: 1 new death as daily Covid-19 infections in Phuket top 200

Why the bloody hell do you have to keep harping on about bloody ivermectin in every f***ing thread?  This isn't about ivermectin...it's about the number of people reported in Phuket to have died or become infected in one damned day.

For god's sake can't you keep your pet topic where it belongs?

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38 minutes ago, MrStretch said:

Ahem, ahem.  

The topic is: 1 new death as daily Covid-19 infections in Phuket top 200

Why the bloody hell do you have to keep harping on about bloody ivermectin in every f***ing thread?  This isn't about ivermectin...it's about the number of people reported in Phuket to have died or become infected in one damned day.

For god's sake can't you keep your pet topic where it belongs?

How about because it’s bleeding obvious that the vaccines are stimulating the spread. Maybe you should keep away from the BBC and mainstream media and develop some critical thought. Explain to me why Iceland with 72.9% of the population vaccinated and Israel with 60.6% vaccinated, 80% of adults, are leading the world with cases and hospitalisation? Explain also why the 18 most vaccinated countries in the world have also had corresponding rises in cases that mirror their vaccine rollout?

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50 minutes ago, MrStretch said:

Ahem, ahem.  

The topic is: 1 new death as daily Covid-19 infections in Phuket top 200

Why the bloody hell do you have to keep harping on about bloody ivermectin in every f***ing thread?  This isn't about ivermectin...it's about the number of people reported in Phuket to have died or become infected in one damned day.

For god's sake can't you keep your pet topic where it belongs?

Why waste your time replying to such nutters?

Cg66 probably believes the world is flat but we have been conned by 'them' , 'those' and 'the others'.

Cg is short for computer graphics, he must have just morphed out of nowhere.

 

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41 minutes ago, Cg66 said:

And stop starting all your posts with ahem ahem!

So you belive vaccines don't work because they are not 100%, masks not 100%, social distancing not 100 % hand sanitizers because not 100%, but you believe ivermecsin works but that's not 100% !  Hmmm

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12 hours ago, MrStretch said:

Ahem, ahem.  

The topic is: 1 new death as daily Covid-19 infections in Phuket top 200

Why the bloody hell do you have to keep harping on about bloody ivermectin in every f***ing thread?  This isn't about ivermectin...it's about the number of people reported in Phuket to have died or become infected in one damned day.

For god's sake can't you keep your pet topic where it belongs?

I’m still waiting for the reply about Israel and Iceland. Too complicated?

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49 minutes ago, Cg66 said:

I’m still waiting for the reply about Israel and Iceland. Too complicated?

This is a Phuket thread, not anything to do with other places or countries

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