Your assistance for vaccination numbers...

[Bob20]

 

Hello all,

 

I'm not claiming to know that the numbers of reported vaccinations in Thailand is wrong.

 

However, I do want to ask a question.

 

The figures come only from the government, claiming total more than 28m doses jabbed already, 6m people fully vaccinated and 16m people vaccinated once.

 

We've seen reports of vaccine delivery. Sinovac 50.000, 200.000, 1m etc. And AZ confirmed two deliveries until now, 6m end of June and 5.3m in August (which may not all be in arms yet, thus not fully included in the 28m). Plus 1.5m Pfizer (but they're also not fully in the 28m yet as its rollout only just started).

 

1) How do we get to 28m jabs given? I can't get close to this number when I look at what was published in deliveries. 

2) The government yesterday stated that they expect to receive (incl. what has been delivered already), 61m AZ by end of December. But if 11.3m have been delivered and Thailand's supply is 3m to max 5m per month, how could they possibly get another 49.7m in the next 4 months?

 

It's not just my curiosity. If areas are going to open up, or even the whole country as suggested, people really need to be protected. Not appear to be protected by published numbers.

 

Does anyone have numbers from other sources? Or the actual number of delivered orders or numbers truly distributed?

 

Please don't start an unpleasant topic with rants against Thailand or the government, but does someone have a logical explanation? I'd simply like to understand how we arrive at the numbers.

 

 

 

 

[gummy]

5 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

Hello all,

 

I'm not claiming to know that the numbers of reported vaccinations in Thailand is wrong.

 

However, I do want to ask a question.

 

The figures come only from the government, claiming total more than 28m doses jabbed already, 6m people fully vaccinated and 16m people vaccinated once.

 

We've seen reports of vaccine delivery. Sinovac 50.000, 200.000, 1m etc. And AZ confirmed two deliveries until now, 6m end of June and 5.3m in August (which may not all be in arms yet, thus not fully included in the 28m). Plus 1.5m Pfizer (but they're also not fully in the 28m yet as its rollout only just started).

 

1) How do we get to 28m jabs given? I can't get close to this number when I look at what was published in deliveries. 

2) The government yesterday stated that they expect to receive (incl. what has been delivered already), 61m AZ by end of December. But if 11.3m have been delivered and Thailand's supply is 3m to max 5m per month, how could they possibly get another 49.7m in the next 4 months?

 

It's not just my curiosity. If areas are going to open up, or even the whole country as suggested, people really need to be protected. Not appear to be protected by published numbers.

 

Does anyone have numbers from other sources? Or the actual number of delivered orders or numbers truly distributed?

 

Please don't start an unpleasant topic with rants against Thailand or the government, but does someone have a logical explanation? I'd simply like to understand how we arrive at the numbers.

 

 

 

I would guess, and it is a guess that at every location where they have undertaken vaccinations, then being Thai there will be a several pieces of paper listing in details exactly who has a received a vaccine, what is was and when administered etc etc.   However like most things here coordination is big problem so I would suspect that although actual numbers are known locally there is none, or a very inefficient national campaign of coordinating and collating that date from all of those vac centres. Given that I suspect the numbers that the government spew out is more speculative than fact based. 

[9S_]

11 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

The figures come only from the government, claiming total more than 28m doses jabbed already, 6m people fully vaccinated and 16m people vaccinated once.

 

Are you referring to covidvax.live? While true they do offer the “most up to date” numbers other news sources vaccine trackers like CNN and NY Times show a lagging number by about 3 million. I suspect the news sites aren’t updating by the second like covidvax

 

13 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

how could they possibly get another 49.7m in the next 4 months?

Donations or ramping up production 

[Bob20]

1 minute ago, gummy said:

I would guess, and it is a guess that at every location where they have undertaken vaccinations, then being Thai there will be a several pieces of paper listing in details exactly who has a received a vaccine, what is was and when administered etc etc.   However like most things here coordination is big problem so I would suspect that although actual numbers are known locally there is none, or a very inefficient national campaign of coordinating and collating that date from all of those vac centres. Given that I suspect the numbers that the government spew out is more speculative than fact based. 

Thanks gummy, I understand and anticipated that.

But these orders arrive at the GPO as they have the monopoly and the doses don't arrive one by one It can't be difficult to list the numbers of what arrived at the GPO and what has then been sent out.

That still doesn't show exactly what's been jabbed, but would be a fairer assessment.

Also, AZ, 11.3m received. How do we get to 61m with 4 more monthly deliveries of 3-5m?

[gummy]

Just now, Bob20 said:

Thanks gummy, I understand and anticipated that.

But these orders arrive at the GPO as they have the monopoly and the doses don't arrive one by one It can't be difficult to list the numbers of what arrived at the GPO and what has then been sent out.

That still doesn't show exactly what's been jabbed, but would be a fairer assessment.

Also, AZ, 11.3m received. How do we get to 61m with 4 more monthly deliveries of 3-5m?

I think the answer to your maths problem is imaginative thinking

[Bob20]

4 minutes ago, 9S_ said:

17 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

how could they possibly get another 49.7m in the next 4 months?

Donations or ramping up production 

The 61m for this year, of which 11.3m have been delivered, refers purely to deliveries from AZ Thailand. And at a rate of 3m to max. 5m per month as AZ confirmed, I don't get to 61m in 4 more months..

[Bob20]

9 minutes ago, gummy said:

I think the answer to your maths problem is imaginative thinking

I was hoping there was an answer, but if the numbers paint too nice a picture and the country keeps pushing for opening, we're all going to have to pay the price again...

Edited August 25, 2021 by Bob20

[AussieBob]

Another issue to consider about the numbers, besides if they are real or not, is the number done each day.

Last time I looked they are averaging 200-300K a day (over a week).  Even if we take the higher number (300K) then for 60 million people (conservative number), for 2 doses, that will take 400 days. They seriously started vaccinations in June/July?  Long long way to go.  

[gummy]

3 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

I was hoping there was an answer, but if the numbers paint too nice a picture and the country keeps pushing for opening, we're all going to have to pay the price again...

Well if you consider Phuket a prime example as to how nice manipulated numbers provided the justification for opening the sandbox,  with the consequential results,  then I would anticipate that the same principles will be applied again to Thailand as a whole, or parts of it.

[Bob20]

6 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

Another issue to consider about the numbers, besides if they are real or not, is the number done each day.

Last time I looked they are averaging 200-300K a day (over a week).  Even if we take the higher number (300K) then for 60 million people (conservative number), for 2 doses, that will take 400 days. They seriously started vaccinations in June/July?  Long long way to go.  

Absolutely true. But my concern is more that if decisions are based on a false sense of security by reporting much higher numbers than is reality, it will go off the rails again.

11.3m + 4 times max. 5m equals 31.3m. Claim is 61m. That's not just a small difference.

Perhaps there is an explanation? Or maybe some news outlet can do some investigative reporting?

[Bob20]

Anyone?

Or someone from Thaiger with contacts?

Or an investigative reporter?