COVID Testing in Thailand

[JamesE]

I've been trying to find any data on the number of COVID tests being run in the kingdom but have so far come up short. I stumbled across this site: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/thailand which despite some caveats is the only info I've been able to uncover. It's not a pretty picture. Since the end of April, Thailand's testing numbers have been essentially flat at a smidge less than 1 test per 1,000 people per day. Since the number of daily new cases have been climbing (by a factor of ten over the same period) this would indicate that the positivity rate is now somewhere around 30%. For reference, a positivity rate of about 4% indicates you're doing enough tests. At the end of April the (implied) positivity rate was about 3% but the current positivity rate is 30% which tracks with the increase in cases. Bottom line is that the current outbreak isn't only bigger than we've been led to believe but it's bigger than anybody knows because of the low test rates.

[Freeduhdumb]

That's right... the tests are designed to detect RNA/DNA fragments of the virus and are not any indicator of disease or illness. More testing means more positive "cases" and less testing equates to less positives and less "cases." I suspect that the current elevation in numbers is a direct result of increased testing often colloquially referred to as a "Casedemic."

The real numbers to follow are hospital admission rates and actual deaths directly attributable to a direct diagnosis of SARS Cov2. 

[JamesE]

9 minutes ago, Freeduhdumb said:

That's right... the tests are designed to detect RNA/DNA fragments of the virus and are not any indicator of disease or illness. More testing means more positive "cases" and less testing equates to less positives and less "cases." I suspect that the current elevation in numbers is a direct result of increased testing often colloquially referred to as a "Casedemic."

The real numbers to follow are hospital admission rates and actual deaths directly attributable to a direct diagnosis of SARS Cov2. 

Clearly you read neither my post nor the link it contained. In short: Testing has remained constant and cases have gone up. The tests are not designed to detect DNA as it's an RNA virus. Jeez.

[Freeduhdumb]

Stop testing... problem solved. People are not dying in numbers that are unusual to these types of disease. Testing is creating an unnecessary hyperbolic response. For Example:

Another Casedemic could easily be created by testing for influenza creating "cases" that would also be troublesome in large amounts as we enter this next flu season... and with the flu deaths being a comparable amount of people every year, we could CREATE another simultaneous crisis. Btw, where's the crisis for TB or Vector borne diseases that kill comparable if not more amounts every year?

Edited August 12, 2021 by Freeduhdumb
Grammar correction additional content.

[SomTum]

On 8/12/2021 at 2:14 PM, Freeduhdumb said:

Stop testing... problem solved.

Testing is important to guide public health efforts to stop the spread of a pandemic virus. Usually a positive test indicates ability to infect others, unless the person has already cleared the virus and is no longer infectious, in which case there may be meaningless RNA fragments. (That could be assessed with an antibody test.)

I suspect most of the testing in Thailand occurs after discovery of a symptomatic case -- whether that is when someone shows up at the clinic or the prison infirmary, or when there is an outbreak in a labor camp -- and contacts are traced. I doubt there is a lot of community surveillance testing going on in Thailand -- or in most of the world, for that matter.

[Rain]

On 8/12/2021 at 2:14 PM, Freeduhdumb said:

Stop testing... problem solved. People are not dying in numbers that are unusual to these types of disease. Testing is creating an unnecessary hyperbolic response. For Example:

Another Casedemic could easily be created by testing for influenza creating "cases" that would also be troublesome in large amounts as we enter this next flu season... and with the flu deaths being a comparable amount of people every year, we could CREATE another simultaneous crisis. Btw, where's the crisis for TB or Vector borne diseases that kill comparable if not more amounts every year?

There ya go.

Invented fear. 

[Bob20]

On 8/13/2021 at 3:40 AM, Freeduhdumb said:

That's right... the tests are designed to detect RNA/DNA fragments of the virus and are not any indicator of disease or illness. More testing means more positive "cases" and less testing equates to less positives and less "cases." I suspect that the current elevation in numbers is a direct result of increased testing often colloquially referred to as a "Casedemic."

The real numbers to follow are hospital admission rates and actual deaths directly attributable to a direct diagnosis of SARS Cov2. 

 

On 8/13/2021 at 2:24 AM, JamesE said:

I've been trying to find any data on the number of COVID tests being run in the kingdom but have so far come up short. I stumbled across this site: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/thailand which despite some caveats is the only info I've been able to uncover. It's not a pretty picture. Since the end of April, Thailand's testing numbers have been essentially flat at a smidge less than 1 test per 1,000 people per day. Since the number of daily new cases have been climbing (by a factor of ten over the same period) this would indicate that the positivity rate is now somewhere around 30%. For reference, a positivity rate of about 4% indicates you're doing enough tests. At the end of April the (implied) positivity rate was about 3% but the current positivity rate is 30% which tracks with the increase in cases. Bottom line is that the current outbreak isn't only bigger than we've been led to believe but it's bigger than anybody knows because of the low test rates.

 

On 8/16/2021 at 12:01 AM, SomTum said:

Testing is important to guide public health efforts to stop the spread of a pandemic virus. Usually a positive test indicates ability to infect others, unless the person has already cleared the virus and is no longer infectious, in which case there may be meaningless RNA fragments. (That could be assessed with an antibody test.)

I suspect most of the testing in Thailand occurs after discovery of a symptomatic case -- whether that is when someone shows up at the clinic or the prison infirmary, or when there is an outbreak in a labor camp -- and contacts are traced. I doubt there is a lot of community surveillance testing going on in Thailand -- or in most of the world, for that matter.

 

On 8/20/2021 at 7:48 PM, Rain said:

There ya go.

Invented fear. 

Have you considered that anyone testing positive does not need to be vaccinated? 

They perhaps become sick or die, but the survivors will have natural immunity for 6 months.

That means if 20.000 test positive every day, 20.000 others can be vaccinated, and 20.000 vaccines are not wasted by giving them to people in whom they don't have any effect...

They can be vaccinated when their natural immunity wanes 6 months later, when (hopefully) there are plenty.