Expert: Half of Thailand infected in 100 days without vaccines

[Leo]

11 hours ago, Freeduhdumb said:

I was just having a discussion about cases elsewhere and would have been nice to have a link of some sort for the data on testing. Where did you derive your case numbers from?

 

[Stonker]

16 hours ago, Freeduhdumb said:

One of the foremost researchers... I would call an Expert, weighed in on the subject just 1.5 months ago... 

“For people younger than 45, the infection fatality rate is almost 0%. For 45 to 70, it is probably about 0.05%-0.3%. For those above 70, it escalates substantially.”

"I feel extremely sad that my predictions were verified. “Major consequences on the economy, society and mental health” have already occurred. I hope they are reversible, and this depends to a large extent on whether we can avoid prolonging the draconian lockdowns and manage to deal with COVID-19 in a smart, precision-risk targeted approach, rather than blindly shutting down everything. Similarly, we have already started to see the consequences of “financial crisis, unrest, and civil strife.” I hope it is not followed by “war and meltdown of the social fabric.”

Globally, the lockdown measures have increased the number of people at risk of starvation to 1.1 billion, and they are putting at risk millions of lives, with the potential resurgence of tuberculosis, childhood diseases like measles where vaccination programs are disrupted, and malaria. I hope that policymakers look at the big picture of all the potential problems and not only on the very important, but relatively thin slice of evidence that is COVID-19."

https://greekreporter.com/2020/06/27/up-to-300-million-people-may-be-infected-by-covid-19-stanford-guru-john-ioannidis-says/

Unfortunately while these "experts", which some undoubtedly are, pick very valid holes in lockdowns and restrictions none - AFAIK literally none - have come up with a better solution.

 

If they have, maybe you could explain it?

[Stonker]

13 hours ago, Leo said:

 You can do the arithmetic, 30%-36% positive rate. If they were testing at a serious level, like Malaysia's for example, and doing 100,000-200,000 tests a day, they would find 50,000-75,000 cases a day(?). In overcrowded places like some BKK districts you can assume 1 in 5 or 1 in 4 is, or has been, infected.

Your maths is flawed, as you've assumed that everyone is equally likely to test positive regardless of who you test, which isn't so.

 

High risk groups targeted for testing have been around 40% positive (unusually as much as 80%).

Low risk groups have been 10-12%, some less.

It all depends on who you test, and who wants to be tested.

[Freeduhdumb]

10 minutes ago, Stonker said:

maybe you could explain it?

You raise a good point. And I will write a solution for you. Give me a few hours... not joking. I will post here again soon.

[Stonker]

12 hours ago, Grumpyoldman said:

... if they have pre existing conditions they should isolate and self protect. If they fall ill, stay at home unless they are seriously ill. If they want to protect vulnerable family members, then make suitable arrangements or the local government can provide isolation units in hotels on a voluntary basis until those people are vaccinated.

 

In Thailand, the elderly, vulnerable and those with pre-existing conditions make up over a third of the population (in the West it's generally higher).

 

So your plan is to make 20 million hotel rooms available for them in Thailand? 

[Stonker]

12 hours ago, Grumpyoldman said:

Broadly, except for travel, stop telling people what not to do and let them take responsibility for their own lives.

One of the things that's widely accepted as setting us apart from other species is that we also take responsibility for other people's lives who aren't in a position to take care of their own.

 

Are you suggesting we no longer do that as it's inconvenient, so it's everyone for themselves?

[Freeduhdumb]

1 hour ago, Stonker said:

maybe you could explain it?

Let me preface this response by first saying this is not a research paper or an opinion piece in a respectable journal or news publication, there for I will not be providing evidenciary sources to validate or backup my opinions here. 

Pandemic:
(of a disease) prevalent throughout an entire country, continent, or the whole world; epidemic over a large area

What we now know is this world-wide illness is not as deadly as previously projected. Neil Ferguson projected 2 million dead in the U.S. alone for the first year. This did not happen. 

It is understandable that the politicians and health authorities would have reacted the way they have. But now we know better. The data is in... their is no true emergency occurring. Let me assert that if we wanted to create more pandemic levels of illness, we could simply start testing everyone for the influenza virus, or the myriad of other viruses that regularly circulate through the populations and kill people at comparable levels (what about vector borne diseases and TB, no pandemic for them?). In short, we have created and are dealing with a "Casedemic" and not a Pandemic killing unusually vast amounts of people. Therefore... 

We need to stop all of the Emergency Decrees... all of the mandatory lockdowns, mask orders, testing and compulsory vaccinations. Rather, we go back to business as usual... there is no true emergency, the good doctor there in Standford University confirms this among many other credible researchers and scientists. 

Public health needs to revert to providing all of the available information and research as it develops and provide these guidelines and guidance as just that... and not mandate. The health systems are perfectly capable of managing this. The identifiable vulnerable populations will organically take their own precautions and the health system to be encouraged to TREAT these people, as oppossed to what is occurring now, where doctors are being hampered, stiffled and in some cases being disciplined for treating their patients with well understood safe medications etc. Allow the vaccine manufactures to continue to develop the vaccines in the standard manner, with safety and efficacy remaining intact. Again... there is no true emergency occurring. I could go on... but I have made my point. 

[Freeduhdumb]

6 hours ago, Alavan said:

Except there are people who had covid, got better and had antibodies, and now catched the delta variant of covid. So far for not needing the vaccine.

With your comment you are advocating for the population to receive annual (likely two injections) shots for this disease as this is what will be required to attempt to stay on top of the ever evolving variants. And as the evidence shows, like with the influenza vaccine, they are simply not able to predict which variants will be prevalent for the succeeding year. Thus the efficacy of the vaccine is not good enough to achieve the so called herd immunity. This is putting aside the recent admissions that covid vaccines are not providing immunity, only symptom reductions (yes this is real admission by the CDC in America). Now, when you take into consideration all of the myriad of diseases that kill at comparable levels, you will need to receive annual injections for all of those diseases as well, if you can follow my logic here. Thus... we are being asked to submit to ever increasingly amounts of experimental injections that to a rational person, who takes the time to look into these experiments, will simply not tolerate. 

"Ending the COVID-19 pandemic will require long-lived immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Here, we evaluate 254 COVID-19 patients longitudinally up to eight months and find durable broad-based immune responses."

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8095229/

[riclag]

On 8/12/2021 at 7:07 PM, Malc-Thai said:

This company siam biosence was given the contract and was to produce around 30 million vaccines  a month . Rather than being the fat kid in the playground that has been given a bag of sweets only to now not share them!  why not find out why the out of work coconut picking monkeys can't produce and fix this issue of producing the amount of vaccines they signed the contract to make

Politics and  greasy palms  are on the menu ,don't ya think !

[riclag]

On 8/12/2021 at 7:28 PM, Pompies said:

Thailand is not an island so denying supplies to neighbouring countries will only ensure a prolonging of their misery and increase the potential for their population to export Covid back into Thailand. Additionally Thailand will never again be regarded as a trustworthy member of ASEAN, if it was ever so characterised. As for herd immunity, forget that concept because the very people who developed the Oxford vaccine are saying it cannot be achieved because the virus mutations and breakthrough infections develop faster than vaccination & vaccine development can bring it into control. So we had better accept that Covid is an ever present part of our lives and every nation needs to act in concert.

Perfect   until "  So we had better accept that Covid is an ever present part of our lives and every nation needs to act in concert. "

"Every nation needs to act in concert" ,  is a one world  concept, kinda like globalization   imop .  The best thing one can do is to take care of number one and come to realize each nation for the most part is a separate force, with its own mind imop! 

The  science  behind the covid vaccines, knows that  its going to mutate when they were in the developing stages of procuring a serum .  Their plan B is a booster and or tweak (modify) it.

Vaccine's aren't ever gonna stop covid but it will weaken it enough ,so  that one would get  mild to moderate symptoms !

You make a good point "ever present part of our lives", in as far as, this is the new normal  that's gonna last until...

Edited August 13, 2021 by riclag

[Freeduhdumb]

7 hours ago, Alavan said:

Except there are people who had covid, got better and had antibodies, and now catched the delta variant of covid. So far for not needing the vaccine.

CDC admits covid vaccines cannot prevent transmission. Do not provide immunity as expected.

 

[Soidog]

1 hour ago, Freeduhdumb said:

CDC admits covid vaccines cannot prevent transmission. Do not provide immunity as expected.

I’m not sure who you mean when you say “as expected”? As far as I know, the majority of vaccines do not provide immunity. The annual flu shot certainly doesn’t and neither do any of the Covid vaccines. However, what they do, is prevent serious illness and death for many that would otherwise be overcome. So yes, you will likely catch Covid over the coming years and if you are unvaccinated, young and healthy, you will most probably (not certainly) survive. If you are older than 60 and/or have serious underlying Heath conditions, then the probability of dying increases. It’s also possible that a future variant of the virus could affect the young and healthy more (as Spanish flu did). However, if you are vaccinated, all of the above is still true, and your probability of surviving will increase significantly for those older and more vulnerable. Get the jab

[Freeduhdumb]

20 minutes ago, Soidog said:

I’m not sure who you mean when you say “as expected”? As far as I know, the majority of vaccines do not provide immunity. The annual flu shot certainly doesn’t and neither do any of the Covid vaccines. However, what they do, is prevent serious illness and death for many that would otherwise be overcome. So yes, you will likely catch Covid over the coming years and if you are unvaccinated, young and healthy, you will most probably (not certainly) survive. If you are older than 60 and/or have serious underlying Heath conditions, then the probability of dying increases. It’s also possible that a future variant of the virus could affect the young and healthy more (as Spanish flu did). However, if you are vaccinated, all of the above is still true, and your probability of surviving will increase significantly for those older and more vulnerable. Get the jab

 

[Soidog]

1 hour ago, Freeduhdumb said:

No I’m not advocating that at all. I’m simply saying the vaccines reduce (but don’t eliminate) your chances of dying from Covid. Even if they only cut the chances by 5% I’d rather have it than not. It’s up to scientists to decide how often they are needed. Maybe twice a year now, and in a few years maybe once every 5 years? Who knows? 

[JamesR]

On 8/12/2021 at 2:17 PM, PhayakPeter said:

We had all this fear mongering in the UK, never happened. 

That is because we were all vaccinated very quickly in the UK so we avoided many more deaths.

When I say "all', I mean the majority of us who were not too scared or selfish to have the jabs.

[BlueSphinx]

8 minutes ago, JamesR said:

That is because we were all vaccinated very quickly in the UK so we avoided many more deaths.

When I say "all', I mean the majority of us who were not too scared or selfish to have the jabs.

Good going James!  A two-line comment consisting of a non-substantiated claim followed by a snarky remark. 

[JamesR]

As opposed to a one line comment containing nothing at all?

It is my opinion and that is that.

What small percentage of vaccinations have there been in Thailand compared to many countries who have already passed the 70% mark as of now?

[Leo]

14 hours ago, Stonker said:

Your maths is flawed, as you've assumed that everyone is equally likely to test positive regardless of who you test, which isn't so.

High risk groups targeted for testing have been around 40% positive (unusually as much as 80%).

Low risk groups have been 10-12%, some less.

It all depends on who you test, and who wants to be tested.

The math is not flawed, it's just that you tried to justify the low level of testing, which coincidentally would also be the Thai government's line (and motive, i.e. low testing -> low  case numbers). 15,000 tests a day in April-June is atrocious. So is 50,000-60,000 tests in July-August. When all along Malaysia, for example, has been testing at 120,000 a day.

You're also wrong about the high-low risk groups and positive rates. I was reading a report where doctors claim  that if your positivity rate is around 10%, then you're not testing enough.

[AdamX]

20 hours ago, Alavan said:

Except there are people who had covid, got better and had antibodies, and now catched the delta variant of covid. So far for not needing the vaccine.

So let the immune system create antibodies for that also.

Let it be a choice

[Cqman]

.

Edited August 14, 2021 by Cqman

[Cqman]

On 8/12/2021 at 10:38 PM, DarshanSylvain said:

Your strategy has worked in which country, exactly?

What strategy has worked anywhere and is viable on long term ?

[Stonker]

2 hours ago, Leo said:

The math is not flawed, it's just that you tried to justify the low level of testing, which coincidentally would also be the Thai government's line (and motive, i.e. low testing -> low  case numbers). 

Sorry, but 'no' your maths is flawed as it's based on the assumption that the level of positives will be constant regardless of who you test which is obviously nonsense.

 

I'm not trying to justify anything, simply telling you the facts which are widely reported and easily available.  If you don't like those facts because they don't suit your agenda, that's up to you.

2 hours ago, Leo said:

You're also wrong about the high-low risk groups and positive rates. 

As above. 

Those are the rates reported - how you interpret them is up to you,  but it's hardly likely that if the government's line is "low case numbers", as you say, that they would be reporting positives of 40% in some groups, occasionally as much as 80%.

 

If you think Thailand isn't testing enough, fine, FWIW I agree with you and free tests should be readily available, but the argument you're putting forward for that is simply factually wrong.

[Stonker]

14 hours ago, Freeduhdumb said:

CDC admits covid vaccines cannot prevent transmission. Do not provide immunity as expected.

Vaccines were never expected to provide total and sterile immunity.

 

That never happened.

[Stonker]

2 hours ago, AdamX said:

Let it be a choice

IT  IS  A  CHOICE!

If you don't want to be vaccinated, that's your choice, regardless of your reasons.

 

It's entirely up to you.

 

Similarly, if I don't want to sit next to you or be in the same room as you because of that, regardless of my reasons, that's my choice.

 

Why should you have a choice, but the rest of us shouldn't?

[Stonker]

16 hours ago, Freeduhdumb said:

Let me preface this response by first saying this is not a research paper or an opinion piece in a respectable journal or news publication, there for I will not be providing evidenciary sources to validate or backup my opinions here. 

Pandemic:
(of a disease) prevalent throughout an entire country, continent, or the whole world; epidemic over a large area

What we now know is this world-wide illness is not as deadly as previously projected. Neil Ferguson projected 2 million dead in the U.S. alone for the first year. This did not happen. 

It is understandable that the politicians and health authorities would have reacted the way they have. But now we know better. The data is in... their is no true emergency occurring. Let me assert that if we wanted to create more pandemic levels of illness, we could simply start testing everyone for the influenza virus, or the myriad of other viruses that regularly circulate through the populations and kill people at comparable levels (what about vector borne diseases and TB, no pandemic for them?). In short, we have created and are dealing with a "Casedemic" and not a Pandemic killing unusually vast amounts of people. Therefore... 

We need to stop all of the Emergency Decrees... all of the mandatory lockdowns, mask orders, testing and compulsory vaccinations. Rather, we go back to business as usual... there is no true emergency, the good doctor there in Standford University confirms this among many other credible researchers and scientists. 

Public health needs to revert to providing all of the available information and research as it develops and provide these guidelines and guidance as just that... and not mandate. The health systems are perfectly capable of managing this. The identifiable vulnerable populations will organically take their own precautions and the health system to be encouraged to TREAT these people, as oppossed to what is occurring now, where doctors are being hampered, stiffled and in some cases being disciplined for treating their patients with well understood safe medications etc. Allow the vaccine manufactures to continue to develop the vaccines in the standard manner, with safety and efficacy remaining intact. Again... there is no true emergency occurring. I could go on... but I have made my point. 

Given that you had previously said "you raise a good point. And I will write a solution for you. Give me a few hours... not joking" and all you've done is to now deny that there is a problem rather than present any "solution", that's rather disappointing.

 

Expected, but disappointing all the same.