Good Morning Thailand | Tourism hopes dashed, murder in NE rice field, amnesty under discussion | August 11

[Thaiger]

Tim and Jay bring you the latest in Thailand’s news to get you ready for the day. Good Morning Thailand updates all the main stories from around Thailand and the region. Any hopes for a Thai tourism recovery are now all but dashed for Q3 this year, whether it be the increased travel restrictions across the country, rising Covid stats, bad international publicity over the murder of the Swiss woman or the waning numbers for the Sandbox and Samui plus. As Thailand’s Public Health Ministry looks to an executive decree to provide Covid healthcare professionals an amnesty from legal liability, […]

The post Good Morning Thailand | Tourism hopes dashed, murder in NE rice field, amnesty under discussion | August 11 appeared first on Thaiger News.

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[sputnik]

it all goes downhill in thailand...who wanna come here 20k plus new covid a day ...a burocratical hell to get in...and than travel restrictions...all this sounds like a new north korea..a useless vaccine...etc etc etc

[dj230]

36 minutes ago, sputnik said:

it all goes downhill in thailand...who wanna come here 20k plus new covid a day ...a burocratical hell to get in...and than travel restrictions...all this sounds like a new north korea..a useless vaccine...etc etc etc

i came here lol 

[Shark]

1 minute ago, dj230 said:

i came here lol 

that was your choice as @sputnik will have his.

[dj230]

7 minutes ago, Shark said:

that was your choice as @sputnik will have his.

he asked "who wanna come here 20k plus new covid a day"

[sputnik]

25 minutes ago, Shark said:

that was your choice as @sputnik will have his.

sputnik landet also in thailand   and understands first hand  all the cons for travel to LOS theses days...

i can clearly see why the masses from Europe and USA are kind of sceptical...there always will be individuals who like it the hard way...but for the average 2 weeks party joe thailand is definitely done...and once the happy easy crowd settle in at another place with girls and cheap beer they very well may stay there...

I guess mexico is an us alternative to los...even i never been there someone said u don't need quarantaine....beer is plentiful and the senioritas are waiting...

me thinks if us gives travel warning for thailand but some american adventurers still come over here,  will they be hold liable when they come back.???..maybe they don't let them in again and put them to a holding camp...or order them a tracking device...

[Shark]

26 minutes ago, dj230 said:

he asked "who wanna come here 20k plus new covid a day"

guessing by the name where dealing with a USSR citizen.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/russia/

 

The amount of new cases is therefore the same as the USSR but the amount of active cases isn't near in any shape or form that's why Russia scores 4th out of the world.

[BIGGLES]

Well, tourism in Q3 is not going to happen in any meaningful way if at all.

A Thai "Think Tank " estimates 1million unemployed by the years end. I would think we are well passed that now, and it will get significantly worse, I would think 5 million right now would be more accurate. 

All things considered, especially the pathetically poor vaccine roll out, next year is not looking good either.

I believe Thailand will be lucky if it can turn the situation around in a 5 year time frame once we hit the deck, and we've not hit it yet. We could be in for  a world of pain for the next 7 years or so.

Property will take a massive hit. Tourism has all but died for the foreseeable future and it will get worse.

20% of the economy currently,is dead, with no sign of improvement!

There is a little light at the end of the tunnel, the Baht is starting to fall, that would be good for tourism if it existed, and exports if they made anything of note. It needs to fall much more.

People who have money tied up in property are in for financial hit, worse than 1997 I believe. Huge amount of over supply, with a massive lack of buyers or renters.

Time for a big reset  I think.

 

[Firpadirp]

18 hours ago, BIGGLES said:

Well, tourism in Q3 is not going to happen in any meaningful way if at all.

A Thai "Think Tank " estimates 1million unemployed by the years end. I would think we are well passed that now, and it will get significantly worse, I would think 5 million right now would be more accurate. 

All things considered, especially the pathetically poor vaccine roll out, next year is not looking good either.

I believe Thailand will be lucky if it can turn the situation around in a 5 year time frame once we hit the deck, and we've not hit it yet. We could be in for  a world of pain for the next 7 years or so.

Property will take a massive hit. Tourism has all but died for the foreseeable future and it will get worse.

20% of the economy currently,is dead, with no sign of improvement!

There is a little light at the end of the tunnel, the Baht is starting to fall, that would be good for tourism if it existed, and exports if they made anything of note. It needs to fall much more.

People who have money tied up in property are in for financial hit, worse than 1997 I believe. Huge amount of over supply, with a massive lack of buyers or renters.

Time for a big reset  I think.

Finally, someone talking in reality.

[Firpadirp]

I've tried for the life of me to get total fatalities in Thailand numbers each day and I can't find it. It just seems very odd to me that they publish the number of COVID related deaths each day but have never come out and said what the total number of deaths were today and what people died from. How can you not conclude that it's all propaganda driven. Create fear and control the masses.

[JamesE]

19 hours ago, sputnik said:

me thinks if us gives travel warning for thailand but some american adventurers still come over here,  will they be hold liable when they come back.???..maybe they don't let them in again and put them to a holding camp...or order them a tracking device...

Since this s#!t-storm began the US has - not even once - required a quarantine for its returning citizens. They've suggested staying at home, but there's no enforcement.

[JamesE]

23 minutes ago, Firpadirp said:

I've tried for the life of me to get total fatalities in Thailand numbers each day and I can't find it. It just seems very odd to me that they publish the number of COVID related deaths each day but have never come out and said what the total number of deaths were today and what people died from. How can you not conclude that it's all propaganda driven. Create fear and control the masses.

Well... It takes time to compile those statistics so you won't find current daily figures for any country on Earth. But you can use this new thing called the internet and find stuff out. This: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7852240/, might be as good a place as any to start searching.

[sputnik]

On 8/11/2021 at 10:10 AM, BIGGLES said:

Well, tourism in Q3 is not going to happen in any meaningful way if at all.

A Thai "Think Tank " estimates 1million unemployed by the years end. I would think we are well passed that now, and it will get significantly worse, I would think 5 million right now would be more accurate. 

All things considered, especially the pathetically poor vaccine roll out, next year is not looking good either.

I believe Thailand will be lucky if it can turn the situation around in a 5 year time frame once we hit the deck, and we've not hit it yet. We could be in for  a world of pain for the next 7 years or so.

Property will take a massive hit. Tourism has all but died for the foreseeable future and it will get worse.

20% of the economy currently,is dead, with no sign of improvement!

There is a little light at the end of the tunnel, the Baht is starting to fall, that would be good for tourism if it existed, and exports if they made anything of note. It needs to fall much more.

People who have money tied up in property are in for financial hit, worse than 1997 I believe. Huge amount of over supply, with a massive lack of buyers or renters.

Time for a big reset  

30% + economy of thailand depends on tourism....and maybe another 20 percent who are suppliers ( food and drink factory's , etc etc etc )....

its like u throw a stone in the water...

the bhat already drops...which can help to slower the collapse...

first riots starting....

....no food nothing to loose

[King Cotton]

26 minutes ago, sputnik said:

30% + economy of thailand depends on tourism....and maybe another 20 percent who are suppliers ( food and drink factory's , etc etc etc )....

its like u throw a stone in the water...

the bhat already drops...which can help to slower the collapse...

first riots starting....

....no food nothing to loose

@sputnikWhilst empathising with your gloomy view of the current Thai scenario, I did see your tourism % contribution numbers to be grossly exaggerated. On checking, here is the verdict of one respected source:

The tourism industry is one of Thailand’s main economic sectors, accounting for 6-7% of its GDP.

https://www.rvo.nl/sites/default/files/2017/06/factsheet-toerisme-in-thailand.pdf

Members are advised in the G&Rs to take care not to present belief as if fact.

 

Edited August 22, 2021 by King Cotton

[shanghailoz]

On 8/12/2021 at 10:05 AM, JamesE said:

Since this s#!t-storm began the US has - not even once - required a quarantine for its returning citizens. They've suggested staying at home, but there's no enforcement.

They can't even get the US masses to wear masks. "Muh Rights!", I'd imagine a quarantine would induce civil war.

[Soidog]

On 8/11/2021 at 8:43 AM, sputnik said:

i can clearly see why the masses from Europe and USA are kind of sceptical...there always will be individuals who like it the hard way...but for the average 2 weeks party joe thailand is definitely done...and once the happy easy crowd settle in at another place with girls and cheap beer they very well may stay there...

I think that’s the key area where people will approach this topic differently and where the debate gets confused. Yes of course “many” people will travel to Thailand at this time. Returning or visiting Thais who work abroad. Long term visitors who have a life in Thailand and wish to get back to family and/or friends. Even the odd “tourist” will travel. There was even a young guy of 21 who finished university and travelled to Afghanistan recently! However, the key question for the Thai economy is how many genuine spending tourists will come. Although foreign tourism accounts for perhaps 10% of the economy, if we also add local tourism that goes to between 15-20%. If you then realise that this money goes to a relatively small number of places where it is focused, then the impact on those communities is a loss of perhaps 50-75% of GDP. Places like Phuket, Pattaya, Samui are devastated communities. The tourism in those areas will take a long long time to recover and may never fully recover. 
 

What will all this do to the wider Thai economy? Hard to say. The government are not going out and borrowing 200% of GDP like some countries. The export business is also benefitting from the weaker baht. My guess is within a year (perhaps Q4 2022) tourism sentiment will improve. The economists sentiment will increase and investors will return. The baht will be back up to US$31 and this will start to feel like things are getting back to normal.  Of course the complete opposite could happen and we will still be debating Covid and the “Omega” variant 12 months from now ! 

[Soidog]

On 8/11/2021 at 9:10 AM, BIGGLES said:

Well, tourism in Q3 is not going to happen in any meaningful way if at all.

A Thai "Think Tank " estimates 1million unemployed by the years end. I would think we are well passed that now, and it will get significantly worse, I would think 5 million right now would be more accurate. 

All things considered, especially the pathetically poor vaccine roll out, next year is not looking good either.

I believe Thailand will be lucky if it can turn the situation around in a 5 year time frame once we hit the deck, and we've not hit it yet. We could be in for  a world of pain for the next 7 years or so.

Property will take a massive hit. Tourism has all but died for the foreseeable future and it will get worse.

20% of the economy currently,is dead, with no sign of improvement!

There is a little light at the end of the tunnel, the Baht is starting to fall, that would be good for tourism if it existed, and exports if they made anything of note. It needs to fall much more.

People who have money tied up in property are in for financial hit, worse than 1997 I believe. Huge amount of over supply, with a massive lack of buyers or renters.

Time for a big reset  I think.

Could well be right @BIGGLES  I’ve just posted a more optimistic view, but it’s based more on hope than a clear vision. The strength of the baht is an odd one. Against the US$ and GB£ it’s lost about 10% over the last year but it’s seemingly holding around current levels. That said, it did a similar thing back in 1997 prior to a magnificent collapse. I can’t see that happening this time as the whole world is in a mess and hence it’s relative to other currencies.
 

The thing that is holding me back from an apocalyptic outlook for Thailand is that they seem to handle problems which would cripple western economies far better. Street protests closing off the capital, Tsunamis hitting major tourists spots, military coups, suspect democratic votes. All seem to cause Thailand to wobble but not collapse. Compare that to the U.K. where even a hint of a strike by railway workers causes the pound to fall 2%. 

[Rain]

On 8/11/2021 at 1:10 AM, BIGGLES said:

Well, tourism in Q3 is not going to happen in any meaningful way if at all.

A Thai "Think Tank " estimates 1million unemployed by the years end. I would think we are well passed that now, and it will get significantly worse, I would think 5 million right now would be more accurate. 

All things considered, especially the pathetically poor vaccine roll out, next year is not looking good either.

I believe Thailand will be lucky if it can turn the situation around in a 5 year time frame once we hit the deck, and we've not hit it yet. We could be in for  a world of pain for the next 7 years or so.

Property will take a massive hit. Tourism has all but died for the foreseeable future and it will get worse.

20% of the economy currently,is dead, with no sign of improvement!

There is a little light at the end of the tunnel, the Baht is starting to fall, that would be good for tourism if it existed, and exports if they made anything of note. It needs to fall much more.

People who have money tied up in property are in for financial hit, worse than 1997 I believe. Huge amount of over supply, with a massive lack of buyers or renters.

Time for a big reset  I think.

And on the other hand, could be worse...