1 million unemployed by year’s end, suggests Thai think tank

[Thaiger]

Thailand Development Research Institute, a Thai think tank, estimates that there will be 1 million unemployed people in Thailand by the end of the year if Covid stays “uncontrollable”. Yongyuth Chalamwong, an Associate Professor and director of labour development research from the think tank’s human resources and social development department, tells Thai media today that the partial lockdown measures have had far-reaching consequences for businesses and the labour market. The professor says if the situation continues until the end of the year, 1 million people will have become unemployed which comprises nearly 3% of working-age people. Yongyuth says to mitigate […]

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[AlanD]

"Thai Think Tank" ... lol enough said!!!

 

[KaptainRob]

One million EXTRA unemployed I could believe.  IMO there's already upwards of 5 million without income in jobs such as hospitality, food production, transport, construction, advertising and manufacturing.

As above :-

34 minutes ago, AlanD said:

"Thai Think Tank" ... lol enough said!!!

 

[Dedinbed]

54 minutes ago, Thaiger said:

Thai think tank,

Not to be confused with an army tank as their armour is usually too thick to do any thinking .. 

[palooka]

Why is it that the Thailand Development Research is so out of touch with reality. Or do they sit in Ivory towers and have a guessing game to justify their existence.

Oh that's right the sex trade doesn't exist.

Maybe they are only quoting figures for Bangkok.

[Shane]

That's terrible and i imagine it's mostly the tourist sector that serves our needs. Hospitality will be destroyed and the knock on effect will cripple more industries. I feel bad for Thailand. 

[AdvocatusDiaboli]

1 hour ago, Dedinbed said:

Not to be confused with an army tank as their armour is usually too thick to do any thinking .. 

well airforce is buying transporter and jets, navy is buying submarines, so army is buying Think Tanks (though they haven’t released the details or cost yet).

[AlexPTY]

1 hour ago, Shane said:

That's terrible and i imagine it's mostly the tourist sector that serves our needs. Hospitality will be destroyed and the knock on effect will cripple more industries. I feel bad for Thailand. 

tourism sector only makes up to 20% of Thai GDP. people talk about it too much, it doesn't mean it's affect economy on a larger scale

[longwood50]

1 million unemployed by years end.  What do they use the same mathematician as Kim Jung-Un uses to come up with his Zero Covid infections in North Korea.

 

Thailand has a reported 38 million people employed.  So supposedly only 2.6% of them would have their jobs lost due to Covid?  Perhaps they use the same methodology as the USA that if you give up looking for a job, you aren't considered unemployed or if you now earn $10,000 part time when you use to earn $60,000 full time you are not unemployed. 

The taxi drivers have fewer customers, the restaurants are closed, the bars are closed, the night clubs are closed, the tourist attractions are closed, the food markets are about half empty and that translates into only 1 million jobs.  I was born at night, but not last night

[AdvocatusDiaboli]

7 minutes ago, longwood50 said:

The taxi drivers have fewer customers, the restaurants are closed, the bars are closed, the night clubs are closed, the tourist attractions are closed, the food markets are about half empty and that translates into only 1 million jobs. 

Maybe these places are just temporary closed, so the people are still technically employed by the governments eyes sought of like the airline industry furloughing its staff. It’s the employment you have when you don’t really have employment.

[longwood50]

37 minutes ago, AdvocatusDiaboli said:

Maybe these places are just temporary closed

Wouldn't that mean they are "temporally unemployed"   Seems like if I am not getting a paycheck, I am unemployed,  If my business is closed because of Covid, I am unemployed.  

[AdvocatusDiaboli]

12 minutes ago, longwood50 said:

If my business is closed because of Covid, I am unemployed.  

Thai AirAsia will keep only one-fourth of the staff and ask the rest to take a leave-without-pay offer for four months, starting February, as the re-emerging coronavirus outbreak has dealt a heavy blow to the aviation sector.

Or maybe they are just on leave. 

[NCC1701A]

i am recruiting some PhD's off of Thai Friendly to join my think tank. 

[9S_]

3 hours ago, Shane said:

Hospitality will be destroyed and the knock on effect will cripple more industries

It’s already happening in manufacturing. A couple factories in my estate were forced to shut down for 2-3 weeks. 
 

Because of this I bet some factories will probably rely on antigen tests rather than going to public health to get free tests for fear of their factory being forced to shut. 

[longwood50]

1 hour ago, AdvocatusDiaboli said:

Or maybe they are just on leave

Please tell me the difference between, I have no job, am unemployed for 4 months and I am on "leave" for 4 months and get no pay.  Purely semantics.  Now if someone is "on leave" but never get called back to work is that person unemployed or are they on "indefinite leave" 

 

[Soidog]

7 hours ago, AlexPTY said:

tourism sector only makes up to 20% of Thai GDP. people talk about it too much, it doesn't mean it's affect economy on a larger scale

20%,tourism includes domestic tourism also. Foreign tourists probably account for 12% of GDP. But make no mistake. 12% loss of GDP is a massive loss to an economy. Also remember that the 12% is essentially foreign investment with people bringing foreign currency in to the country. Even a 2% loss would give most governments many sleepless nights. Also bear in mind that the 20% GDP does not take in to account government borrowing which is massive as a result of Covid. In 2007 when the U.K. GDP fell by 6%, this was the sharpest and deepest drop in 80 years. A recession which took almost 10 years to recover from and that was around 1/3rd of what Thailand is experiencing. 
The impact was severe resulting in large reductions in wages and a lot of people becoming unemployed. There is also an impact to credit which becomes restricted as investors see the loss of GDP as a higher risk. Essentially such a massive loss becomes a large negative financial snowball rolling down hill. 

[bushav8r]

8 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

i am recruiting some PhD's off of Thai Friendly to join my think tank. 

Is your tank full yet?

[bushav8r]

3 hours ago, Soidog said:

20%,tourism includes domestic tourism also. Foreign tourists probably account for 12% of GDP. But make no mistake. 12% loss of GDP is a massive loss to an economy. Also remember that the 12% is essentially foreign investment with people bringing foreign currency in to the country. Even a 2% loss would give most governments many sleepless nights. Also bear in mind that the 20% GDP does not take in to account government borrowing which is massive as a result of Covid. In 2007 when the U.K. GDP fell by 6%, this was the sharpest and deepest drop in 80 years. A recession which took almost 10 years to recover from and that was around 1/3rd of what Thailand is experiencing. 
The impact was severe resulting in large reductions in wages and a lot of people becoming unemployed. There is also an impact to credit which becomes restricted as investors see the loss of GDP as a higher risk. Essentially such a massive loss becomes a large negative financial snowball rolling down hill. 

I think these official numbers never take into account the underground economy.   

[gummy]

2 minutes ago, bushav8r said:

I think these official numbers never take into account the underground economy.   

You are correct and the black economy is massive. So if that is impacted as much as the other that that 1 million unemployed possibly balloons to nearer 5 million +

https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Thailand/shadow_economy/

[Cathat]

I think a number of about 5 million unemployed and another 5 million underemployed would be more realistic numbers.

Seems like the rascals are trying to massage the figures like they do with everything else.

Major government intervention along the lines of how the us govt intervened during the great depression is probably the only way forward.

how to finance it is another matter.china would probably be the best bet because nobody in the west trusts them with money if the reports from the last meeting at davos are to be believed.

perhaps digging the kra canal by hand or building a big dam across the Mekhong would be worthy projects.

[PJM]

So that means less than one million now? Really they are in denial.

Almost as realistic as the wearing masks while having sex .

What next? 

Still good entertainment

[Changnam43]

Even at the best of times Thailand has millions unemployed and underemployed.

Go upcountry and there are an army of, generally male, hammock dwellers.

Thailand.  Global hub of the hammock.

[harry1]

18 hours ago, AlanD said:

"Thai Think Tank" ... lol enough said!!!

must be one of those tanks they recently purchased

[Shark]

I think these numbers are a bit off (like by 10 times or so). But hey TiT and TTT.