Survey shows nearly half of Thai businesses expect return to normality in early 2022

[Thaiger]

A survey carried out by the Bank of Thailand shows that nearly half of Thai businesses expect life to return to normal during the first quarter of 2022. According to a Bangkok Post report, businesses of all sizes were interviewed between July 1 – 22 as part of the business sentiment index. The findings show that 45% expect people to become more confident spending time outside the home during the first quarter of next year. They also expect travel to return to normal and daily new infections to fall below 50 during the same period. The Bangkok Post reports that […]

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[gummy]

Now which half of Thai businesses did they survey ? The 50% by shareholding worth that are owned by the big 5 well connected families worth billions or the the other 50% of the many thousand of business down "on their uppers" which are far more representative of most of Thailand commercial enterprises ?

[dmacarelli]

Nearly everything that is coming from these bank analysts is looking more and more inaccurate, more like guesswork, and less like professional, good quality forecasting every day. Nothing will be normal next year, or the year after. Thailand is now heading towards an economic catastrophe that will make 1997 look mild. And it will last a half decade of longer. There is a high chance of a major depression here, and nobody knows how high unemployment is, if you take into account the cash economy. 40%? More? And the goons who are saying the economy will only grow by 1% this year are lost in space. Contract by 8% maybe. 

And when you consider that tourism made up a full 20% of the economy, or 110,000,000,000,000 baht that is alot of cash that is gone, baby gone, and not returning anytime soon. I do not think it will ever return. I predict after 5 years, the tourism industry will be 15% of what it was before, or 5 million arrivals, at most. Too much sabotage. Too much punishment. Too much destruction. Too little support. Too long a shutdown. 

[PatrickSatoLee]

Expect . . . except no one proof read anymore

[Pompies]

This is laughable. The virus is out of control, there are too few vaccines to even get close to the original meagre targets and long haul international and even regional tourism will be nowhere close to a quater of 2018 figures. Sadly Thai business people are suffering from unreasonable exuberance.

[NCC1701A]

Thai businesses except return to normality

[palooka]

16 minutes ago, dmacarelli said:

Nearly everything that is coming from these bank analysts is looking more and more inaccurate, more like guesswork, and less like professional, good quality forecasting every day. Nothing will be normal next year, or the year after. Thailand is now heading towards an economic catastrophe that will make 1997 look mild. And it will last a half decade of longer. There is a high chance of a major depression here, and nobody knows how high unemployment is, if you take into account the cash economy. 40%? More? And the goons who are saying the economy will only grow by 1% this year are lost in space. Contract by 8% maybe. 

And when you consider that tourism made up a full 20% of the economy, or 110,000,000,000,000 baht that is alot of cash that is gone, baby gone, and not returning anytime soon. I do not think it will ever return. I predict after 5 years, the tourism industry will be 15% of what it was before, or 5 million arrivals, at most. Too much sabotage. Too much punishment. Too much destruction. Too little support. Too long a shutdown. 

Banking analyst jobs pay well, so they have to put out some poorly researched crap to justify their existence on the payroll

I think the figures are very generous in all aspects, the economic catastrophe came with the loss of tourism, everyone says 20% but I think the reality is 40%, no one takes into account the sex trade which brought in billions yearly and these girls spent it, so all the landlords, food carts, clothing shops and families that made a living off these girls lost their income overnight.  As some estimate there were huge numbers of these girls then it is not a drop in the ocean.  Ignoring these facts does help the Govt put a false front of how bad the economy really is and how badly they are managing it.

Soon they will cut back the Govt pay packets, then it will hit the proverbial. PM has already hinted at this by taking a pay cut himself, and if the boss can do it so can the workers.

Covid sadly is going to be with us for some years and they need to start thinking of ways to get Thais employed again in the jobs Thais don't want but the Myanmar and Cambodians do want.

[Ubon2530]

How many of those asked consulted their 'yipsee' / card reading witch / chicken blood on the wheel of fate?

[JamesE]

41 minutes ago, PatrickSatoLee said:

Expect . . . except no one proof read anymore

Another hundred or two Thaiger Legends and they can get an editer editor.

[9S_]

[9S_]

10 minutes ago, palooka said:

Covid sadly is going to be with us for some years and they need to start thinking of ways to get Thais employed again in the jobs Thais don't want but the Myanmar and Cambodians do want.

Reminds me of all those Thai youths joining that Facebook group on how to emigrate to other countries. They wish to move to the US where ancient Americans fought hard sometimes risking their lives to secure the freedoms their descendants enjoy today. Another way of looking at is that young Thais would rather lazy away to another country 

[billywillyjones]

More koolaid for the kookaid crowd.  Drink up folks but there may be a terrible hangover.

[harry1]

wishful thinking from statisticians,ask the bankrupt business owners what the future will bring ? and still waiting for mass vaccine program after 8 months ? BOT and the current government should be telling businesses how it is and to budget accordingly to the present, that would be more beneficial for them to adjust their business' to survive ? rather than broken promises,the economy in dire strait ,and no quick fix, its here to stay for a long time due to the lack of vaccines

[King Cotton]

5 hours ago, PatrickSatoLee said:

Expect . . . except no one proof read anymore

Fixed now! You're right though, re the seeming absence of PRs . . . such a boaring job!

[Guevara]

27 minutes ago, King Cotton said:

Fixed now! You're right though, re the seeming absence of PRs . . . such a boaring job!

I think it was somewhat pedantic with the incorrect word. I feel confident that most knew what was being said. Having said that, your spelling of the word 'boaring'. Was that in error or are you into giving wild pigs a good time? 55555 Bored, board or boared, take your choice? I thought with the level of doom and gloom it was time for some for some light hearted comments.

[cmsally]

Quote

According to a Bangkok Post report, businesses of all sizes were interviewed between July 1 – 22 as part of the business sentiment index. The findings show that 45% expect people to become more confident spending time outside the home during the first quarter of next year. They also expect travel to return to normal and daily new infections to fall below 50 during the same period.

Well, basically they were asking the business owners and understandably they will not want to consider the alternative; so what kind of answer do you expect! By now they will not want to dwell on the possibility of another year like this, they are just trying to survive day by day.

If you had no food in the fridge , and were asked whether you would have food in the fridge next year; I can predict that your answer would be "yes". Considering the alternative is simply too depressing!

[King Cotton]

9 minutes ago, Guevara said:

I thought with the level of doom and gloom it was time for some for some light hearted comments

Couldn't agree more and certainly worth saying twice (:-)

[PapayaBokBok]

When has Thailand ever been "normal"?....  :)

[gummy]

12 hours ago, King Cotton said:

Couldn't agree more and certainly worth saying twice (:-)

Ok here goes

I thought with the level of doom and gloom it was time for some for some light hearted comments  

[King Cotton]

1 hour ago, gummy said:

14 hours ago, King Cotton said:

Couldn't agree more and certainly worth saying twice (:-)

Ok here goes

I thought with the level of doom and gloom it was time for some for some light hearted comments  

That's my boy . . . now I've laughed twice!

[Fonz]

A survey carried out by the Bank of Thailand shows that nearly half of Thai businesses expect life to return to normal during the first quarter of 2022.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

[dmacarelli]

On 8/6/2021 at 11:39 AM, NCC1701A said:

Thai businesses except return to normality

True that. Anything but a return to normality.