News Forum - BREAKING NEWS: Former Thai PM Thaksin Shinawatra granted royal pardon, sentence reduced to 1 year

[Fanta]

20 minutes ago, Vigo said:

Not a strange question. The pensions and benefits are worth a small fortune by  Thai  standards. In most countries an official who is convicted of corruption loses the pension and associated retirement benefits. Whether or not he keeps his benefits will indicate whether the penalty imposed was a true judicial penalty.

In respect to the private clinics, which clinics does he own? There is a lot of hot air that blew up the man's wealth and asset base. There is no indication that he owns any medical clinics.  The realty is that $1.14 billion of the $2.49 billion of Shin assets were seized years ago. The company rebranded a decade ago and redeployed its assets. It has 4 principal holdings;  Shin Satellite and Advanced Info Service (AIS). It also holds stakes in Thai AirAsia, Capital OK a consumer retail finance company, an inhouse advertising firm, and ITV. There is no mention of medical clinics or hospitals.

https://www.forbes.com/profile/thaksin-shinawatra/?sh=185174d04e78

[HolyCowCm]

17 hours ago, KhaoYai said:

Agree that care must be taken but this subject is going to be talked about constantly in both Thai and expat circles and I think even Prayuth will expect that. The courts would be full for the next 10 years if they decided to prosecute. Just no direct criticism.

Nobody is going to openly say anything outloud on this subject here in Thailand unless they are s t u p i d. Even me and my familyu mke sure our kitchen door is closed and do not go on and on about it becasue of the taboo. Even one should be aware your phone has a listening ai tool on it as well. Many time me and even my friends  have just said something and then have see an ad pop upo in it of th subject or word. Beware of you phone too.

[HolyCowCm]

16 hours ago, Pinetree said:

Really?  All the expats I know couldn't care less. It's a matter for Thailand and the Thais and I suspect that it's a matter of supreme indifference to most expats.

I have lived about half my life here and yes me and my family are concerned and talk about stuff like this. Very rare we discuss anything about the USA unless it is about family or basketball.

[Viggen840]

The original forecast for the passage of a pardon was one to two months. Thaksin is back in-country a week and it is GAZETTED? Convince me this wasn't all agreed and set in place before he stepped onto the plane to travel here.

[Pinetree]

1 hour ago, HolyCowCm said:

I have lived about half my life here and yes me and my family are concerned and talk about stuff like this. Very rare we discuss anything about the USA unless it is about family or basketball.

Then it is entirely understandable that you have a deeper emotional attachment to Thailand and a deeper interest in its politics. Speaking for my wider group of expats, we are all under 10 years living here, have little to no emotional attachment and see the political shenanigans as,  at most , predictable light entertainment. 

[Pinetree]

16 hours ago, Marc26 said:

Expats who have kids in Thailand may care 

Indeed so, but I would hope that they have ensured that those kids have some form of  duel Nationality, and therefore options for their future. I have a half Thai daughter who was High School educated in Taiwan and University educated in the UK and who lives and works in the UK now.  She has no interest in Thai politics but that is the advantage for her of being both British and Thai.  

[Vigo]

10 hours ago, Fanta said:

https://www.forbes.com/profile/thaksin-shinawatra/?sh=185174d04e78

Ok. so despite the claim to the contrary he has no ownership stake in any health clinics or hospitals.

Sure, Forbes says he has  "wealth" Alot of it is paper. Shares in AIS , Thai Air Asia etc.

Meanwhile, one doesn't know if the taxpayer is on the hook to pay for his private hospital room and medical care. The basic concierge VIP type care he is receiving is 20,000- 50,000 per diem depending on suite, staffing, menu and  level of care. Let's say 30 days @ 30,000 for room, and that's without medical  and pharma costs.  He could easily be  burning 1 million baht a month. Consider what the   rural loyalist  PTP voter gets for  the 30baht program.

[Fanta]

27 minutes ago, Vigo said:

Ok. so despite the claim to the contrary he has no ownership stake in any health clinics or hospitals.

Sure, Forbes says he has  "wealth" Alot of it is paper. Shares in AIS , Thai Air Asia etc.

Meanwhile, one doesn't know if the taxpayer is on the hook to pay for his private hospital room and medical care. The basic concierge VIP type care he is receiving is 20,000- 50,000 per diem depending on suite, staffing, menu and  level of care. Let's say 30 days @ 30,000 for room, and that's without medical  and pharma costs.  He could easily be  burning 1 million baht a month. Consider what the   rural loyalist  PTP voter gets for  the 30baht program.

1 million baht is chicken feed and a smart investment. How much would it cost the Thai economy in lost productivity if Thaksin came to harm while in custody? BILLIONS 

[KhaoYai]

On 9/1/2023 at 1:38 PM, Grumpish said:

Thought he was already out and safely installed in the Presidential Suite in a hospital.

Hence the question, will he return?

[HolyCowCm]

6 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

Hence the question, will he return?

He is still convicted. He needs to of been like the heroin dealer and went to prison in another country if he wanted to be in the government here. So the other answer is how long will he be a shot caller of politics from the outside. My guess is he made such a huge behind the doors deal that if he moves left or right he will get his pardon yanked. 

[LuckyStrike]

On 9/1/2023 at 4:27 AM, HolyCowCm said:

Everyone better think about how you post to this. It reaches into the don't talk abouts. 

Good thing I can't read or write.

[ChrisS]

Like that pardon wasn't a done deal before he even set foot in Thailand!

[cowslip]

3 hours ago, ChrisS said:

Like that pardon wasn't a done deal before he even set foot in Thailand!

I don't think that it takes a lot of imagination to come to that conclusion.

What is more important is how this deal plays out. Taksin vasically commands a huge voting majority....it may have changes names etc but the whole time the military have been inpower, he and his family have had the majority of votes in any free election. 

we now have the Move Forward Party - who the military have successfully kept out of power with their constitution - but both Taksin's party and Move Forward want to change that.....can't see how the military can avoid that in the long run - without a coup.

THe military can't push him aside - he'd become a martyr so a deal had to be done - AFTER an election - what will happen now over the next few months or years will be either a move to get rid of the current constitution or a coup.

THe generals lso have to make sure they they in turn aren't all imprisoned.

there is also the elephant in the room - those of whom we cannot speak

[cowslip]

11 hours ago, Vigo said:

Ok. so despite the claim to the contrary he has no ownership stake in any health clinics or hospitals.

Sure, Forbes says he has  "wealth" Alot of it is paper. Shares in AIS , Thai Air Asia etc.

Meanwhile, one doesn't know if the taxpayer is on the hook to pay for his private hospital room and medical care. The basic concierge VIP type care he is receiving is 20,000- 50,000 per diem depending on suite, staffing, menu and  level of care. Let's say 30 days @ 30,000 for room, and that's without medical  and pharma costs.  He could easily be  burning 1 million baht a month. Consider what the   rural loyalist  PTP voter gets for  the 30baht program.

which Taksin set up.

[Vigo]

1 hour ago, cowslip said:

which Taksin set up.

True, and it was better than nothing. However, if our jolly man is in VIP care for a year, that may  cost 10 million+ baht per annum. Even that is not chump change  for a hiso. Perhaps they can  add another tax specific to his care for farangs and call it the  Make Thaksin Well Again Fund. More efficient than a crowd funding effort.

[Pinetree]

7 hours ago, cowslip said:

whole time the military have been inpower, he and his family have had the majority of votes in any free election. 

well they didn't in the last one did they? His power is long gone. 

[cowslip]

4 hours ago, Pinetree said:

well they didn't in the last one did they? His power is long gone. 

I think your premise is basically flawed - and I'm not just referring to Thaksin alone either.

I think you also don't fully understand who people were voting for and why.

[cowslip]

10 hours ago, Vigo said:

True, and it was better than nothing. However, if our jolly man is in VIP care for a year, that may  cost 10 million+ baht per annum. Even that is not chump change  for a hiso. Perhaps they can  add another tax specific to his care for farangs and call it the  Make Thaksin Well Again Fund. More efficient than a crowd funding effort.

I think the 30 baht bit is scrapped now.

 

THail healthcare needs a total revamp - probably find Thaksin will use his experienc in care to start that.

[KhaoYai]

22 hours ago, HolyCowCm said:

He is still convicted. He needs to of been like the heroin dealer and went to prison in another country if he wanted to be in the government here. So the other answer is how long will he be a shot caller of politics from the outside. My guess is he made such a huge behind the doors deal that if he moves left or right he will get his pardon yanked. 

Massive on the face of it but not really when its examined.

From Pheu Thai's perspective, what did they gain?  The premiership? What does that mean?  They will hold the position but they will have no real power. The generals will never allow them to bring back their reformist proposals and they will have to rely on the votes of other parties to get anything done - remember that Move Forward still have the majority of votes.

Major gain: Thaksin's return.

What did they lose:

Credibility amongst the people - the electorate clearly want major change. Move Forward ran on a heavily reformist manifesto and gained a comfortable majority.  Pheu Thai also included a number of reformist polices but dropped them in order to be 'allowed' to take the premiership. Thay they were prepared to do that brings about the question of how well they will do at the next election - the people are unlikely to forget what they've done.

Of course, if things go well for the economy etc. in the next few years, Pheu Thai's postion may improve but given that Move Forward still hold the majority of votes, Pheu Thai are going to find it very difficult to get anything done.

This whole affair brings the credibility of Pheu Thai into question. The next election could be very interesting.

I think the generals & the elite were shocked to the core by the last election results.  In the past there have been many parties that have run on reformist manifestos but very few even mentioned reform of the monarchy - the monarchy has been the one thing that 'gelled' opposing factions.

That the electorate voted so strongly for a party that promised reform of the monarchy and threatened the elite directly in other ways (ending the alcohol duopoly for one), clearly illustrates a 'sea change' in the opinion of the people.

I believe the generals and the elite know their days are numbered but they are at a loss for what to do about it right now.  That they were prepared to do a deal that included the return of Thaksin, who they had labelled as a serious criminal, speaks volumes.

The will hang on as long as they possibly can but the generals and the elite now know that they can no longer rely on the people's love of the monarchy to protect their position.

Edited September 3, 2023 by KhaoYai

[cowslip]

I think taksin can run rings around the military and the establishment that he's not part of.....the military are trying to hold on but unless they have a coup, they can't - they never have.

[perceblue]

SURPRISE, SURPRISE.

[samiam123]

I give it a couple more weeks and they will quietly release him for medical reasons or some other excuse.

Edited September 3, 2023 by samiam123

[KhaoYai]

7 hours ago, cowslip said:

I think taksin can run rings around the military and the establishment that he's not part of.....the military are trying to hold on but unless they have a coup, they can't - they never have.

Hmmm, he hasn't done before and he has to be very careful. If he steps out of line too far he'll find himself back in court again.  Trumped up charges are common place in Thailand - especially in political circles, they'll find something if they want to.

As for a coup?  Despite their promises, who's going to stop them?  Who has the wherewithal?

However, the people's biggest weapon is, in my opinion - a General Strike.  To the best of my knowledge that's never been done in Thailand and would be a 'blood free' protest that would hit the military and their masters right in the wallet.  The problem being, it would also hurt the population.

I think the generals have probably got away with it for now - massive disappointment over the election fiasco and now eyebrows raised as far as they will go over the obvious Thaksin deal - yet no meaningful protest on either front.

What will happen in the future is anyone's guess - either one of the above factors would have triggered huge protests in other countries.  Will the Thai people always be so accepting, so resigned to the army always being in control - who knows but I suspect that when today's students become fully fledged adults with junior students of their own, there will be big changes.

For now, given the evidence of the last few months - the military seem to be able to do exactly what they want.  After the election when the real changes to the constitition kicked in and Pita was refused the premiership, I thought there would be mass protests - futile but still huge. That didn't materialise so it seems impossible to predict.

It is of course possible that the military have unwittingly healed some of the division in the country by their underhand dealings.  Previously there was a significant split along red shirt/yellow shirt lines - not always visibly but there all the same.  Even the strongest 'yellow shirt' could not put his hand on his heart and say that events since May have been right and proper - surely?  That could well create some unity, at least in terms of 'the people - v- the establishment'.  Remember, it is very likely that for reasons I won't go into here (although obvious), the yellow shirts might not be quite the 'monarchists' they once were.

Still, wanting rid of the military and the elite is one thing, getting rid of them is an entirely different matter and having the willingness to enter into any conflict with such aims may be a step too far at the moment.

[cowslip]

9 hours ago, KhaoYai said:

Hmmm, he hasn't done before and he has to be very careful. If he steps out of line too far he'll find himself back in court again.  Trumped up charges are common place in Thailand - especially in political circles, they'll find something if they want to.

As for a coup?  Despite their promises, who's going to stop them?  Who has the wherewithal?

However, the people's biggest weapon is, in my opinion - a General Strike.  To the best of my knowledge that's never been done in Thailand and would be a 'blood free' protest that would hit the military and their masters right in the wallet.  The problem being, it would also hurt the population.

I think the generals have probably got away with it for now - massive disappointment over the election fiasco and now eyebrows raised as far as they will go over the obvious Thaksin deal - yet no meaningful protest on either front.

What will happen in the future is anyone's guess - either one of the above factors would have triggered huge protests in other countries.  Will the Thai people always be so accepting, so resigned to the army always being in control - who knows but I suspect that when today's students become fully fledged adults with junior students of their own, there will be big changes.

For now, given the evidence of the last few months - the military seem to be able to do exactly what they want.  After the election when the real changes to the constitition kicked in and Pita was refused the premiership, I thought there would be mass protests - futile but still huge. That didn't materialise so it seems impossible to predict.

It is of course possible that the military have unwittingly healed some of the division in the country by their underhand dealings.  Previously there was a significant split along red shirt/yellow shirt lines - not always visibly but there all the same.  Even the strongest 'yellow shirt' could not put his hand on his heart and say that events since May have been right and proper - surely?  That could well create some unity, at least in terms of 'the people - v- the establishment'.  Remember, it is very likely that for reasons I won't go into here (although obvious), the yellow shirts might not be quite the 'monarchists' they once were.

Still, wanting rid of the military and the elite is one thing, getting rid of them is an entirely different matter and having the willingness to enter into any conflict with such aims may be a step too far at the moment.

in general I see where you are comig from - but unlike most Thai politicians - who are really Generals - Taksin is a consi=mate wheeler-dealer politician and strateist - te Army when they lose power throw their rattle out of the pram and have a coup - but they are pretty bad at going any further than that - they never take the majority with them.

 

As for general strikes - well Thailand has had several long term mass demonstrations and they usually result in deaths, both protestors and students have been massacred in the past.

the currentconstitution decides on who is PM and it HAS to be with the consent of the military - not until that is overturned will any semblance of democracy is achieved. So it's all down to how far they can push the military - and joining sides with them may be the only way to start the process.

I think we can expect a lot more legal proceeds against opposition politicians, but the public may see through that.