EC To Investigate Pita...

[Faraday]

 

The Election Commission has resolved on Friday to investigate whether Move Forward Party PM candidate Pita Limjaroenrat knowingly violate election laws because he knew he was holding ITV media shares or not.

 

I rather think that he's painted a target on his back, after saying that he will investigate Prayut.

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/pm-dismisses-pitas-threat-of-probe-into-his-conduct-in-administration/

This could result in disqualification, a fine, or even a spell in the Monkey House. 

If found guilty, Pita would be disqualified and could face a prison sentence from 1 to 10 years, and a fine of 20,000-200,000 baht under Article 42 (3) and 151 of the election laws.

https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/2023/06/10/pita-smiles-despite-ec-will-investigate-him/

[BigHewer]

1 hour ago, Faraday said:

I rather think that he's painted a target on his back, after saying that he will investigate Prayut.

Yep, that would do it. Using the judiciary to target political enemies… not a good look for democracy in a country, but seems to be happening a lot

(obviously too early for me. I genuinely clicked on this story thinking it was going to be about the EU cracking down on animal rights activists )

[Shade_Wilder]

3 hours ago, Faraday said:

I rather think that he's painted a target on his back, after saying that he will investigate Prayut.

 

Nonsense.

Whoever was elected by the Pro-Democracy side was always going to be "investigated" by the EC; it wouldn't have mattered the slightest if it were Pita, Thaksin's daughter or the other PT Prime Minister nominees, anyone else from MF, or anyone backed by these parties. 

This was all designed and written into the Junta constitution; the Military/Establishment side in Thai politics knows that they are unable to win a fair or fair-ish election, so they added poison pills.

The EC. Thai election laws, like virtually all Thai laws, always have some vagueness so that they can be "interpreted" (anyone ever visit Thai immigration?). The EC was appointed by the Junta and will always find something to question based on their "interpretation" of the rules. Moreover, they'll take their sweet time in doing so against an opposition candidate as every day after the election goes by, the sense of momentum of the winning, Pro-Democracy side wanes just a little. Finally, after they have done their best to blunt a sense of momentum, they'll refer the case to the NACC "out of an abundance of caution" so that the new PM will be referred to as the "under investigation (insert name)".

Next is the NACC. The NACC will conduct a "fair and complete" investigation and take their sweet time about it in order to continue the policy of blunting momentum and casting aspersions on the Pro-Democracy side. Hmm... isn't Prawit's former aide still Head of the NACC? 

After the NACC, the Constitution Court will weigh in. Remember them? The ones who decided that an army regulation superseded the Constitution so that Prayut could live rent-free on an army base?

The Senate. Since you all know about the Junta-appointed Senate, I won't waste my time.

The process is clear as day.

"Concerns" will be raised. Bullshit rules and regulations will be cited. "Doubts" will be cast. "Questions" will be asked.

In August , approximately four months after the election, when the momentum from the election has worn off and the leading candidate or candidates from the opposition side have been tarnished in the name of "making sure everything is correct", then they will decide if they want the tarnished candidate or they decide that "more investigations" are needed to "ensure fairness" and muddy it up further.

This is all by design and was planned a few years ago.

Power in Thailand isn't given, it is taken. If Pita and the Pro-Democracy side want to govern, they need to start fighting back, and quickly. Leaks about the EC members and their pre-election overseas trips and perks, point out the ridiculousness of involving the Senate, discreetly organize street demos, start making public statements about how stupid the process is, etc.

Political power is an ephemeral thing as it is rarely measured, The vast majority of time, political power exists simply because people think you have it. Conversely, if people don't think you have it, you don't have it.

If Pita wants to be PM, he needs to fight like hell now while he has the afterglow of a Democratic election. If he sits back and allows himself to be belittled, judged and insulted by his foes, his power will evaporate before he even uses it. Politics 101 is define your opponent before he can define himself.

This was always going to occur; that was decided when the Junta wrote the current constitution. 

The question is simple; is the Pro-Democracy side going to fight?

 

 

[KaptainRob]

5 hours ago, Shade_Wilder said:

The question is simple; is the Pro-Democracy side going to fight?

I think they will this time, depending on which faction is proposed to form Government.  A PT/Anutin coalition might avert bloodshed.  Early days yet.

[Shade_Wilder]

1 hour ago, KaptainRob said:

I think they will this time, depending on which faction is proposed to form Government.  A PT/Anutin coalition might avert bloodshed.  Early days yet.

 

Afternoon, KR

In a short post you have raised two issues that I am pretty sure Thailand will have to face, and sooner rather than later. The issues are will there be violence and is there an alternative to an MFP-led government.

I don't think there is an alternative to an MFP-led government as I don't think that Pheu Thai can ditch them and remain a viable force. The MFP swept Bangkok where once PT ruled, and that must be an alarming indicator for PT as there really isn't a way to gain power in Thailand without a large presence in the Capital; when attempting to explain Thailand politically to my global friends, I tell them to think about it as "The Kingdom of Bangkok and Surroundings". Moreover, PT/Thaksin/Yingluck/Etc. have always been popular as the Pro-Democracy, Reform Party but if they hook up with anyone else besides MFP, I think they lose that "Edge". Finally, PT looks old relative to the MFP, and if it wants to continue to exist, it needs to reform and re-build and can't do that in coalition with a Junta-Coalition party like BJP.

I am also cognizant that I am in the South of Thailand and Northerners think differently. So, Northerners, can the Pheu Thai survive without being part of a Democratic, Reform government? Or, would MFP, seeing that ground ceded, just move in and take over the 'protest' vote which is mainly young people?

The second issue is violence and sadly I expect to see some. One, it is part of Thai political history that people, especially young people, get killed during times of change. Secondly, I don't think the Thai people really get the concept of "Peaceful Transfer of Power' as they rarely have experienced it; simply put, I think it is likely/certain that a few people will die in any sort of political transition because they always have before and that is actually part of the process (awful as that is). Finally, the only way that I see no violence occurring is if there really isn't any significant change, and if there is no significant change occurring, then Thailand's future will simply drain away, leaving behind a place of nice chicks, beaches, doobies and food rather than a serious country which provides for its children. 

MFP won a mandate to reform. Pheu Thai also won a mandate to reform.

If they don't deliver, they are toast.

 

[KaptainRob]

26 minutes ago, Shade_Wilder said:

MFP won a mandate to reform. Pheu Thai also won a mandate to reform.

Despite an overwhelming desire by the majority to see change via MFP, they will (almost) certainly be defeated due to policies which would dismantle not only the current regime but also higher powers.

Mr T backed 2 horses and I'm sure he has a deal in place which would put PT into Government with Anutin as PM in a coalition.  They are former allies in both business and politics.

Failing an MFP or PT/Bjp Gov't. I'd expect to see blood being spilled.  One can only hope that the military take a neutral stance.  Wishful thinking perhaps?