Monday Covid Update: Record high of 11,784 new cases and 81 deaths

[Thaiger]

A record high of 11,784 new Covid-19 cases were reported today by the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration. The CCSA also recorded another 81 coronavirus-related deaths. Since April 1, the latest and most severe wave of the virus in Thailand, the CCSA has reported 386,307 confirmed infections. The CCSA has said the expected uptick in cases is due to the emergence of the highly transmissible Delta variant. This weekend, infection rates hit record highs with 10,082 cases reported on Saturday and 11,397 reported on Sunday. Despite strict measures in Bangkok and other “dark red” provinces, including nightly curfews, business closures and […]

The post Monday Covid Update: Record high of 11,784 new cases and 81 deaths appeared first on Thaiger News.

Read the full story

[AussieBob]

And it keeps getting worse - just as we all predicted. I can see a lot of criticism and squabbling and many PR press releases coming out today and tomorrow.  The PM 'sacked' Anutin as the Govt's head man running the Covid strategy and took over it all himself many months ago.  Will the PM apologise and accept responsibility?  Will Anutin supporters take the opportunity to push for the PM's resignation?   

[AlexPTY]

8 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

And it keeps getting worse - just as we all predicted. I can see a lot of criticism and squabbling and many PR press releases coming out today and tomorrow.  The PM 'sacked' Anutin as the Govt's head man running the Covid strategy and took over it all himself many months ago.  Will the PM apologise and accept responsibility?  Will Anutin supporters take the opportunity to push for the PM's resignation?   

it will be couple of interesting days in Thailand

[DontacoXII]

Another way to say that is .6% of today’s confirmed covid cases died of various causes and were covid positive. Taking into account the true rate of positive cases is at minimum 5X higher than confirmed cases so actually .1% of today’s positive cases died of various causes. So let’s shut everything down and ruin millions of peoples lives. I’m a realist and that’s the real deal. Mortality rate vs reaction to this just doesn’t make sense.

[Lifeboat]

People are people.   With everything closed, jobs and little income , how can people eat, or pay their bills?  Each time the restrictions came with a two minute  warning,  giving each an opportunity to flee to run home to mom and dad in the village, where they can eat and sleep, nevermind they could be carrying a virus with them that might kill their parents.  I wonder how many feel guilty if they actually  were carriers, and fate befell their families,  because  they were self centered?  Checkpoints set up to protect  other provinces,  knowing they gave all two days or more to sneak back to village.   This just perpetuated its progress each time the restrictions  were given a warning before imposing. 

[Remi]

Again another day at the circus , the more you test with the PCR kit the more positive you will find.

It has been stated over and over that the PCR test does not give a true reading for Covid 19 as covid 19 has never been isolated .

The positive results are for SARS but which SARS. There is a possibility of any number of SARS depending on the number of cycles the test are being run at.

This insanity When have any of us needed a test to know when we are I'll.

Oh transmission I forget we are dealing with a condition that is like Ebola or the bubonic plauge.

No this condition we call

 Covid 19 has a 99 percent recovery rate.

Do we want to destroy the kingdom have the lunatics taken control.

Wake up before you kill us all with starvation or worry.

 

 

[Leo]

2 hours ago, DontacoXII said:

Another way to say that is .6% of today’s confirmed covid cases died of various causes and were covid positive. Taking into account the true rate of positive cases is at minimum 5X higher than confirmed cases so actually .1% of today’s positive cases died of various causes. So let’s shut everything down and ruin millions of peoples lives. I’m a realist and that’s the real deal. Mortality rate vs reaction to this just doesn’t make sense.

No, it's not just "mortality rate vs reaction", it's also hospitalizations, it's also running out of oxygen, it's also the fact that the average rate of infection is 3-6 (an infected person infects 3-6 other people, and with the delta variant it's likely more), not including superspreaders.

It's also that the true numbers of infections and deaths are multiples of the official figures. The positive rate for Thailand has been around 10%-15% for weeks now. I was reading an article on Indonesia where the doctors admit that when you reach that rate, it means one thing, you're not testing enough.

[AdvocatusDiaboli]

Let’s put a picture to it. Phuket now the only safe place!

 

[DontacoXII]

1 hour ago, Leo said:

No, it's not just "mortality rate vs reaction", it's also hospitalizations, it's also running out of oxygen, it's also the fact that the average rate of infection is 3-6 (an infected person infects 3-6 other people, and with the delta variant it's likely more), not including superspreaders.

It's also that the true numbers of infections and deaths are multiples of the official figures. The positive rate for Thailand has been around 10%-15% for weeks now. I was reading an article on Indonesia where the doctors admit that when you reach that rate, it means one thing, you're not testing enough.

Hospitalizations are a true indicator of what’s needed with regards to restrictions assuming those admitted are not just there for monitoring but actually need medical care. A particular number of positive cases means nothing and is used to gain viewers, sell ads and frighten people. Bottom line is everyone will contract covid just like the flu. Most people will be fine, just like the flue and some people will catch pneumonia and die, just like the flu. Vaccinations will prevent serious reactions and many deaths and should be a top priority as is getting people back to work so they can survive. 

[Stardust]

4 hours ago, AlexPTY said:

it will be couple of interesting days in Thailand

 

Yes a lot is going on behind the curtain but for more details you have to follow the hashtags and Tony.

[Stardust]

4 hours ago, AussieBob said:

And it keeps getting worse - just as we all predicted. I can see a lot of criticism and squabbling and many PR press releases coming out today and tomorrow.  The PM 'sacked' Anutin as the Govt's head man running the Covid strategy and took over it all himself many months ago.  Will the PM apologise and accept responsibility?  Will Anutin supporters take the opportunity to push for the PM's resignation?   

Anutin supporters? Follow a bit the hashtags and what Thai people thinks and which options they think. But this everybody can do by himself now!

[Soidog]

4 hours ago, DontacoXII said:

Another way to say that is .6% of today’s confirmed covid cases died of various causes and were covid positive. Taking into account the true rate of positive cases is at minimum 5X higher than confirmed cases so actually .1% of today’s positive cases died of various causes. So let’s shut everything down and ruin millions of peoples lives. I’m a realist and that’s the real deal. Mortality rate vs reaction to this just doesn’t make sense.

Agreed. But unchecked and uncontrolled could result in 500,000 people in hospital. The Thai healthcare system, like many others simply couldn’t cope. This then has knock on implications for A&E treatments and other life saving operations such as for cancer and heart disease. It’s not about calculating how many people die or even how many people need hospitalisation in a year. It’s about the surge, or profile of cases overwhelming modern day healthcare services. That’s the only reason governments around the planet are locking down. 

[annoynimous]

take whatever vaccine that is available fastest to you.

[Soidog]

2 hours ago, Leo said:

No, it's not just "mortality rate vs reaction", it's also hospitalizations, it's also running out of oxygen, it's also the fact that the average rate of infection is 3-6 (an infected person infects 3-6 other people, and with the delta variant it's likely more), not including superspreaders.

It's also that the true numbers of infections and deaths are multiples of the official figures. The positive rate for Thailand has been around 10%-15% for weeks now. I was reading an article on Indonesia where the doctors admit that when you reach that rate, it means one thing, you're not testing enough.

Agreed. There must have been hundreds of such similar comments. What is it that people simply can not see here. This isn’t some complex mathematical equation or particle physics theory.  This is simple arithmetic! 
 

If you let this rip through a population by opening everything up and getting on with life in an unvaccinated and hence unprotected population of around 70 million people, even if only 1% need hospitalisation, that’s 700,000 people all needing hospital care more or less at the same time. The British Medical journal reported that in an unvaccinated population with an “ageing society” such as the U.K. and Thailand, that could be as high as 10%. Can you imagine the mayhem 7,000,000 people needing to go to hospital would cause. That’s on top of A&E requirements and life saving operations for cancer etc that would all grind to a halt. 

People quote these figures of 0.001 and 1% without seeing that this is for the very reason that lockdowns and restrictions are in place  to keep them low, to keep it under control and  to stop the country falling in to medical catastrophe  

Please, someone explain to me why people simply either don’t believe these numbers or can’t do the arithmetic? I’m off to bang my head against a wall

[AussieBob]

1 hour ago, Soidog said:

Agreed. There must have been hundreds of such similar comments. What is it that people simply can not see here. This isn’t some complex mathematical equation or particle physics theory.  This is simple arithmetic! 
 

If you let this rip through a population by opening everything up and getting on with life in an unvaccinated and hence unprotected population of around 70 million people, even if only 1% need hospitalisation, that’s 700,000 people all needing hospital care more or less at the same time. The British Medical journal reported that in an unvaccinated population with an “ageing society” such as the U.K. and Thailand, that could be as high as 10%. Can you imagine the mayhem 7,000,000 people needing to go to hospital would cause. That’s on top of A&E requirements and life saving operations for cancer etc that would all grind to a halt. 

People quote these figures of 0.001 and 1% without seeing that this is for the very reason that lockdowns and restrictions are in place  to keep them low, to keep it under control and  to stop the country falling in to medical catastrophe  

Please, someone explain to me why people simply either don’t believe these numbers or can’t do the arithmetic? I’m off to bang my head against a wall

All good @Soidog  one way or another things will work out.  I agree with you about the need to lockdown to stop the medical system busting like it did in India, but the way they have done it everywhere around the world leaves so much room for criticism.  Singapore, Taiwan and Australia seem to have the best solution - lock everyone else out.  But even they and us are now experiencing breakouts due to Delta, and of course people are blaming the Govt.  Save the wall some pain - go hit a few golf balls

 

[Soidog]

42 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

All good @Soidog  one way or another things will work out.  I agree with you about the need to lockdown to stop the medical system busting like it did in India, but the way they have done it everywhere around the world leaves so much room for criticism.  Singapore, Taiwan and Australia seem to have the best solution - lock everyone else out.  But even they and us are now experiencing breakouts due to Delta, and of course people are blaming the Govt.  Save the wall some pain - go hit a few golf balls

Yes I agree. What amazes me is that developed countries haven’t already established a best practice solution for handling pandemics. We’ve had enough warnings over the last 50 years. 
 

Now where are my golf clubs?….

[Bart]

2 hours ago, AussieBob said:

All good @Soidog  one way or another things will work out.  I agree with you about the need to lockdown to stop the medical system busting like it did in India, but the way they have done it everywhere around the world leaves so much room for criticism.  Singapore, Taiwan and Australia seem to have the best solution - lock everyone else out.  But even they and us are now experiencing breakouts due to Delta, and of course people are blaming the Govt.  Save the wall some pain - go hit a few golf balls

You can't really compare the situation of Thailand, with that of island nations like Australia and Taiwan.

Many of the countries that did well using traditional means (tracing and isolation, a more reserved traditional lifestyle) were less inclined to rely on vaccines. Meanwhile the Delta variant and spillover from the civil war in Myanmar have created a perfect storm.

The US and Europe are finally managing thanks to vaccines, despite the new variants.

Unfortunalely, vaccine production hasn't risen fast enough (yet) to supply the rest of the world that waited ordering until vaccine efficacy was more clear.

I fear Thailand has many months of lockdowns of varying severity ahead, like Europe and the US had before. Covid seems to have become unmanageable with traditional means.

[Paco]

And worse already said this will happen months ago it will raise to 20,000+  and now they finally found it out, wow what a genius people.. lock the country down take direct measures, sandbox close it EVERYTHING.. but nothing and people are dying

[Bangkok_Gary]

The number of new cases is increasing by about 10% per day. The doubling time for 10% is about one week. So expect to see 20,000 cases a day in about one week. Even if there is a total lockdown today the number of new cases per day will continue to increase for about one week after (because it takes about one week for symptoms to appear after infection). So the number of new cases is probably going to hit 20,000 a day regardless of what the government does. Re-opening the country to tourists is a fantasy.

[AussieBob]

On 7/19/2021 at 10:35 PM, Bart said:

You can't really compare the situation of Thailand, with that of island nations like Australia and Taiwan.

Many of the countries that did well using traditional means (tracing and isolation, a more reserved traditional lifestyle) were less inclined to rely on vaccines. Meanwhile the Delta variant and spillover from the civil war in Myanmar have created a perfect storm.

The US and Europe are finally managing thanks to vaccines, despite the new variants.

Unfortunalely, vaccine production hasn't risen fast enough (yet) to supply the rest of the world that waited ordering until vaccine efficacy was more clear.

I fear Thailand has many months of lockdowns of varying severity ahead, like Europe and the US had before. Covid seems to have become unmanageable with traditional means.

Dead right.  Add to that the general 'reluctance' of people in poorer countries to obey any lockdowns, and you have a 'perfect storm' and it is playing out right now. I saw an article that the Covid deaths in India (440K Official) could be much much larger than that - upwards of 2 million.  I have been to India and that is very probable - take the most densely packed poor parts of Bangkok and then extend that over 60-70% of the country - that is India. 

[gummy]

1 minute ago, AussieBob said:

Dead right.  Add to that the general 'reluctance' of people in poorer countries to obey any lockdowns, and you have a 'perfect storm' and it is playing out right now. I saw an article that the Covid deaths in India (440K Official) could be much much larger than that - upwards of 2 million.  I have been to India and that is very probable - take the most densely packed poor parts of Bangkok and then extend that over 60-70% of the country - that is India. 

But the big difference is in India the sanatory conditions are poor. Even in the most densely packed parts of Bangkok I would guess that 99.9% of the people have access to a toilet, whereas in the Indian countryside many villages have none or very few.

[AussieBob]

46 minutes ago, gummy said:

But the big difference is in India the sanatory conditions are poor. Even in the most densely packed parts of Bangkok I would guess that 99.9% of the people have access to a toilet, whereas in the Indian countryside many villages have none or very few.

Very true too. And I didnt need reminding about the lack of toilets in India - thanks a lot . 

Driving in Thailand countryside is so good - if you survive the trucks, maniacs and the maniacs in a truck. Stop at a petrol station and they have coffee and western toilets - and they are clean. 

[gummy]

3 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

Very true too. And I didnt need reminding about the lack of toilets in India - thanks a lot . 

Driving in Thailand countryside is so good - if you survive the trucks, maniacs and the maniacs in a truck. Stop at a petrol station and they have coffee and western toilets - and they are clean. 

That's very true and PTT amd Homepro have some of the cleanest.

[AussieBob]

17 minutes ago, gummy said:

That's very true and PTT amd Homepro have some of the cleanest.

Yep - PTT is where we always stop. Cafe Amazon and Thai food shops too. And of course the 7/11 store. ATM machines too. What more could you ask for on a long country drive when needing to stop for a break.

I still remember when on one of our first trips I only needed a number 1, and the Thai toilets were 'right here' and the western toilets were 'way over there'. So I went into the Thai ones and saw a row of 'squatters'. They were all clean and all that - but there is no way I can squat and pee, so I was standing there thinking about whether I can stand and aim well enough.  A Thai man came in and realised the issue and pointed out the back, and signalled several times for me to go around the back. I was very dubious of course and went into 'switched on' mode - ready for fight or flight.  Out and around I went - and there I saw a long row of 'outdoor' urinals against the wall - open to the air and everything but not visible from the petrol station or carpark. For those old enough it was just like those urinals around the back of the boy's toilet blocks in the schools many many decades ago.  All good and another life experience ticked off.