Royal Thai Navy goes ahead with plans to buy 2 submarines

[HolyCowCm]

54 minutes ago, Faraday said:

"And the Chi...no, Chinese are all aboard"

If we all threw in a line this might be a 2 submarine hit wonder. 

[gummy]

7 hours ago, KaptainRob said:

Geez your a hard man ... it doesn't have to be 12 year contracts.  Take NZ for example, and it's just a tiny example, has handed out approx 4 mil (NZD) in the past month to criminals or organisations set up and run by criminals.  The electorate is ready to toss Ardern out, next election but those funds will be gone!

The thread is about submarines !!

[Smithydog]

2 hours ago, gummy said:

The thread is about submarines !!

Good Point Gummy. I think we have moved away from commentary with at least loose association with the topic and heading towards being off it. If members can return to comments about the original topic, that would be appreciated.

Thanks in Advance.

Moderator

[Dave]

Funny how the picture is of an Atlantis IV Submarine used for tourist rides.  I hope these aren't the actual subs purchased, that would be embarrassing.

Edited July 18, 2021 by Dave

[Korby]

The last thing on any logical official's mind should be how are we going to stay afloat in this on going mess? Not, purchasing submarines and trying to go under! Come on Thailand you folks are so much better than this!

[DiJoDavO]

In the meantime everyone else can be singing: We all live in a covid quarantine, a covid quarantine, a covid quarantine. 

[Stonker]

11 hours ago, EdwardV said:

“Thus, breaking this contract would be pretty much impossible and could put Thailand in a “difficult situation”. - that’s not believable. What possible difficult situation would Thailand be in? The Chinese would be mad? Contracts to purchase military equipment are based on funding. In other words they don’t take effect until the funding is approved. Thailand would not be on the hook for the other two. You don’t even have to pay more for the first as any quality discount is built into the price of the follow up order. 

Sorry, @EdV, but that's not correct as regardless of whether the submarines are justified or not that part, at least, is almost certainly true and it's normal in military procurement.

Thailand may well be liable to pay for the submarines even if they cancelled them.

When the question was raised in the British parliament over whether the Navy needed two QE class aircraft carriers when the need for even one was questionable, the justification was simply that even if the order was cancelled it would still have to be paid for in full so they may as well take them.

[vlad]

Wrong Stonker I worked on the Queen Elizabeth carrier in Goven. Two were ordered but the MOD started getting cold feet about the price of a second carrier. So Govern fired all the Contractors because they thought the second carrier would be cancelled, i got bulleted.

[JTCarius]

 

 

 

Here, let me attempt to shed some light on what the real "contracts" and "difficult situation" that the government spokesmen utilizing a complex variant of obfuscating 21st-century Orwellian triplespeak actually meant.

 

The people out there who are understandably inquiring as to why Thailand needs two expensive new submarines are oblivious to the Kingdom's larger international political and strategic military obligations.

 

People here are protesting about why the military needs two big submarines to defend its shallow gulf.

 

Thailand has been host to Cobra Gold, a 27 nation Indo-Pacific military exercise held here since the 200 year anniversary of Rattanakosin (Bangkok) in 1982.

China, admitted in 2015, is only allowed to participate during the humanitarian portion.

Cobra Gold is basically an anti-communist, defense, containment, show of force, and contingency war gaming exercise. A big and expensive one.

Perpetually training to deploy your modest fleet of relatively small aging cruisers, destroyers, along with South East Asia's first mini aircraft carrier (Thailand's flagship Chakri Naruebet) without a proper complement of submarines is potentially, probably the cause of a major loss of face.

It is also a genuine liability in terms of naval tactical, strategic capability, and readiness.

I mean, you don't want to come across as some tinhorn despot.

Fellow ASEAN member and Cobra Gold participant, Indonesia currently have 4 operational submarines with the intention of expanding to twelve. The fifth, KRI Nanggala 402 sank during a torpedo drill in April 2021.

Singapore has four

Malaysia has two pretty sweet looking ones

Vietnam has observer status at Cobra Gold and currently has six operational submarines.

This Slavic dude does a pretty good job at giving a concise synopsis as to why submarine capability is a game-changer for the RTN:

https://www.iscanngroup.com/submarines-in-the-south-east-asian-waters/

 

 

 

 

https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/sizes/td-story-s-1/thediplomat_2014-01-30_01-57-24.jpg

Edited July 18, 2021 by JTCarius

[bushav8r]

House budget committee expected to shelve Thai navy's submarine deal | Thai PBS World 

Edited July 18, 2021 by bushav8r

[harry1]

22.5 billion baht can buy 30 million doses of Pfizer for its suffering people,very difficult to understand why they want to purchase  these 2 additional submarines  at this given time,the chief commander of the armed force should intervene 

[gummy]

1 minute ago, harry1 said:

22.5 billion baht can buy 30 million doses of Pfizer for its suffering people,very difficult to understand why they want to purchase  these 2 additional submarines  at this given time,the chief commander of the armed force should intervene 

Because purchasing 30  million doses of Pfizer will result in no kick-backs as Pfizer is an American company whereas 2 subs from China is a guaranteed way of ensuring 7 billion ( 30% ish ) goes to straight to offshore accounts

[HuaHinHappy]

9 hours ago, JTCarius said:

Here, let me attempt to shed some light on what the real "contracts" and "difficult situation" that the government spokesmen utilizing a complex variant of obfuscating 21st-century Orwellian triplespeak actually meant.

The people out there who are understandably inquiring as to why Thailand needs two expensive new submarines are oblivious to the Kingdom's larger international political and strategic military obligations.

People here are protesting about why the military needs two big submarines to defend its shallow gulf.

Thailand has been host to Cobra Gold, a 27 nation Indo-Pacific military exercise held here since the 200 year anniversary of Rattanakosin (Bangkok) in 1982.

China, admitted in 2015, is only allowed to participate during the humanitarian portion.

Cobra Gold is basically an anti-communist, defense, containment, show of force, and contingency war gaming exercise. A big and expensive one.

Perpetually training to deploy your modest fleet of relatively small aging cruisers, destroyers, along with South East Asia's first mini aircraft carrier (Thailand's flagship Chakri Naruebet) without a proper complement of submarines is potentially, probably the cause of a major loss of face.

It is also a genuine liability in terms of naval tactical, strategic capability, and readiness.

I mean, you don't want to come across as some tinhorn despot.

Fellow ASEAN member and Cobra Gold participant, Indonesia currently have 4 operational submarines with the intention of expanding to twelve. The fifth, KRI Nanggala 402 sank during a torpedo drill in April 2021.

Singapore has four

Malaysia has two pretty sweet looking ones

Vietnam has observer status at Cobra Gold and currently has six operational submarines.

This Slavic dude does a pretty good job at giving a concise synopsis as to why submarine capability is a game-changer for the RTN:

https://www.iscanngroup.com/submarines-in-the-south-east-asian-waters/

https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/sizes/td-story-s-1/thediplomat_2014-01-30_01-57-24.jpg

Please.  You have made multiple assumptions, most of which are preposterous and not supported by the  real politik of the region.  Thailand's immediate naval need is an upgrade of its deep water vessels and more importantly, a modern air wing. It has limited marine air patrol capability. look at the decrepit air resources it  can muster.

Your reference  to Cobra Gold as anti "Communist" is ridiculous. China is communist in name only. It is a commercial totalitarian juggernaut. The communists are Vietnam and guess what? They are the ones standing against China. The RAN and RCN have been visiting Vietnam not Thailand.  China has Thailand in its pocket. The free world doesn't need Thailand, and western countries are wise to the Thai way of playing off the west against China. They are not playing anymore  and this is illustrated by the absence of western vaccines in Thailand. Pfizer and Moderna are making their way to countries, its just not very public. There is a reason why the USA sent vaccine to Mexico first, why the EU waived the export ban of vaccines for Canada and why Australia and Japan are going to get priority with vaccine deliveries.  

Fortunately, the great leader General - Prime Minister has seen the light and will delay the submarine purchase. Had he not, I expect that we would have seen turmoil in the streets.

[Stonker]

11 hours ago, vlad said:

Wrong Stonker I worked on the Queen Elizabeth carrier in Goven. Two were ordered but the MOD started getting cold feet about the price of a second carrier. So Govern fired all the Contractors because they thought the second carrier would be cancelled, i got bulleted.

Sorry, @vlad, I don't really understand what you're saying as I've got no idea what you mean by "Goven " or "Govern", but from the little I can understand you seem to be saying I'm "Wrong" but then confirming what I've said.

 

The question I referred to was Question 136 - Note on the Carrier Procurement, given as supplementary written evidence from the Ministry of Defence in their Major Projects Report 2010 to the Public Accounts Committee.

 

Now that I've checked it (the last time I looked was over ten years ago for the SDSR), it's actually worse than I recalled.

 

From the MoD reply (my bold)

 

"... as the cancellation costs would have had immediate short term effect, the costs in the short term would have been significantly higher than proceeding with both carriers as planned: nearly 1 billion pounds more in Financial Year 11/12 if both carriers had been cancelled"

 

So it would have cost a billion pounds more , on an order with a planned cost (MPR10) of 5.9 billion, to cancel the order than to build both carriers.

 

 

You  can find the full details, with costs, at https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmselect/cmpubacc/687/687we05.htm

[vlad]

5 minutes ago, Stonker said:

Sorry, @vlad, I don't really understand what you're saying as I've got no idea what you mean by "Goven " or "Govern", but from the little I can understand you seem to be saying I'm "Wrong" but then confirming what I've said.

The question I referred to was Question 136 - Note on the Carrier Procurement, given as supplementary written evidence from the Ministry of Defence in their Major Projects Report 2010 to the Public Accounts Committee.

Now that I've checked it (the last time I looked was over ten years ago for the SDSR), it's actually worse than I recalled.

From the MoD reply (my bold)

"... as the cancellation costs would have had immediate short term effect, the costs in the short term would have been significantly higher than proceeding with both carriers as planned: nearly 1 billion pounds more in Financial Year 11/12 if both carriers had been cancelled"

So it would have cost a billion pounds more , on an order with a planned cost (MPR10) of 5.9 billion, to cancel the order than to build both carriers.

You  can find the full details, with costs, at https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmselect/cmpubacc/687/687we05.htm

Goven is a Shipbuilding yard in Glasgow Stonks where Unit blocks were constructed for the 1st Carrier. What i posted was the Second carrier was expected to be cancelled by the MOD. 

[Stonker]

7 hours ago, vlad said:

Goven is a Shipbuilding yard in Glasgow Stonks where Unit blocks were constructed for the 1st Carrier. What i posted was the Second carrier was expected to be cancelled by the MOD. 

Understood, thank you, but I'm still no closer to what you think I said was "wrong".

If you read the link it confirms everything I said: the queston was Question 136, and the answer was exactly  as I said.

So what do you think I said that was "wrong"?

 

I'm not after an argument, just asking as I'm curious.

[NCC1701A]

 

Navy chief Adm Chartchai Srivorakhan took a multi-billion-baht submarine budget request off the agenda of the House committee vetting the 2022 Budget Bill.

 

https://tna.mcot.net/english-news-741801

[vlad]

9 minutes ago, Stonker said:

Understood, thank you, but I'm still no closer to what you think I said was "wrong".

If you read the link it confirms everything I said: the queston was Question 136, and the answer was exactly  as I said.

So what do you think I said that was "wrong"?

I'm not after an argument, just asking as I'm curious.

just you said i think about a signed and sealed a contract. Once signed the contract has to be fullfilled. The MOD most likely a contract to build 2 Carriers due to the time to construct these to cost and Budget. If they wanted to cancel the second one there must have been a clause to sign for one only.

[KhunG]

19 hours ago, JTCarius said:

Here, let me attempt to shed some light on what the real "contracts" and "difficult situation" that the government spokesmen utilizing a complex variant of obfuscating 21st-century Orwellian triplespeak actually meant.

The people out there who are understandably inquiring as to why Thailand needs two expensive new submarines are oblivious to the Kingdom's larger international political and strategic military obligations.

People here are protesting about why the military needs two big submarines to defend its shallow gulf.

Thailand has been host to Cobra Gold, a 27 nation Indo-Pacific military exercise held here since the 200 year anniversary of Rattanakosin (Bangkok) in 1982.

China, admitted in 2015, is only allowed to participate during the humanitarian portion.

Cobra Gold is basically an anti-communist, defense, containment, show of force, and contingency war gaming exercise. A big and expensive one.

Perpetually training to deploy your modest fleet of relatively small aging cruisers, destroyers, along with South East Asia's first mini aircraft carrier (Thailand's flagship Chakri Naruebet) without a proper complement of submarines is potentially, probably the cause of a major loss of face.

It is also a genuine liability in terms of naval tactical, strategic capability, and readiness.

I mean, you don't want to come across as some tinhorn despot.

Fellow ASEAN member and Cobra Gold participant, Indonesia currently have 4 operational submarines with the intention of expanding to twelve. The fifth, KRI Nanggala 402 sank during a torpedo drill in April 2021.

Singapore has four

Malaysia has two pretty sweet looking ones

Vietnam has observer status at Cobra Gold and currently has six operational submarines.

This Slavic dude does a pretty good job at giving a concise synopsis as to why submarine capability is a game-changer for the RTN:

https://www.iscanngroup.com/submarines-in-the-south-east-asian-waters/

https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/sizes/td-story-s-1/thediplomat_2014-01-30_01-57-24.jpg

Interesting article.  Thanks.

[Stonker]

20 hours ago, vlad said:

said i think about a signed and sealed a contract.

20 hours ago, vlad said:

just you said i think about a signed and sealed a contract

Of course there was a "signed and sealed contract".  

 

It was announced in July 2007, and signed on 3 July 2008 by the Aircraft Carrier Alliance and MoD procurement.

 

ACA (BAE, Babcock, Thales, A&P, and the MoD) didn't just built them on spec without a contract! 

 

Whatever rumours you may have heard in the shipyard at Govan (not "Goven" or "Govern"), BAE who own the shipyard would have been very well aware of what was in the contract.

 

... and whatever the rumours, the MoD never considered cancelling the contract for the PoW as that would have been the worst and most expensive option - what they considered in SDSR 2010 was re-configuring the PoW, with a different layout to QE, then either mothballing it or selling it within NATO (although there were no takers). 

Fortunately when SDSR 2015 came around the Navy had "re-reviewed" what they needed and  coincidentally decided that they hadn't made a mistake after all and they needed both big boys' toys to play with, however crap they were and even though they can't crew them and don't have the planes to put on them or any strategic justifiction for them.

 

To be fair to the Navy, the British Army have done just the same, deciding that SA80 was the perfect infantry weapon when it's a piece of crap, and that Ajax is the "next generation of armoured vehicles", as long as no one has to actually man them for more than an hour and a half and they don't have to go over a bump more than 20 cm / 8" high.

 

The RAF haven't done any better, either - the contract for Nimrod MRA4 cost over 4 billion pounds, and they didn't just never enter service but they were all scrapped as unwanted in 2010 and then the RAF changed their minds and decided they needed them after all so they spent another 3 billion buying Poseidon in 2015!

20 hours ago, vlad said:

If they wanted to cancel the second one there must have been a clause to sign for one only.

There was, but as clearly explained in the link I gave it meant that it cost half a billion more to only buy one rather than two if the second was cancelled, and a billion more than build cost to cancel them both.

 

I know it doesn't sound credible so I must be "wrong", but it's spelt out beyond any doubt in the link.  It was a billion cheaper to take both and then give them away or sink them than to cancel them - it was far more about politics and providing jobs on the Clyde than it was about defence strategy.

 

 

Edited July 20, 2021 by Stonker
typo

[vlad]

Im as much at fault for going off Topic its about Thailand buying 2 subs.