How China screws over the world's poorest people and nations.

[Shade_Wilder]

A fascinating article/analysis by the Associated Press (AP) on how China is screwing over the world's poorest nations and people (link below). The article/analysis is long but well worth the time needed to read and take in; for those on the lazier side...

"...A dozen poor countries are facing economic instability and even collapse under the weight of hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign loans, much of them from the world’s biggest and most unforgiving government lender, China.

An Associated Press analysis of a dozen countries most indebted to China — including Pakistan, Kenya, Zambia, Laos and Mongolia — found paying back that debt is consuming an ever-greater amount of the tax revenue needed to keep schools open, provide electricity and pay for food and fuel. And it’s draining foreign currency reserves these countries use to pay interest on those loans, leaving some with just months before that money is gone.

Behind the scenes is China’s reluctance to forgive debt and its extreme secrecy about how much money it has loaned and on what terms, which has kept other major lenders from stepping in to help. On top of that is the recent discovery that borrowers have been required to put cash in hidden escrow accounts that push China to the front of the line of creditors to be paid..." (Link below)

 

I have lived and worked in many of the countries mentioned in the article/analysis and with the benefit of hindsight it is all too clear.

I lived in China for a few spells back in the 90's, and to this day recall what some "Old China Hands" told me; enjoy the Chinese people as they are wonderful (and they really, really are) but under no circumstance allow yourself to be reliant on them as you will certainly regret it. It was damn good advice then and it is still damn good advice now.

I lived and worked in several of China's debtor nations and/or worked with citizens of those countries, and it was always the same song. Words to the effect of 'We prefer to do business with the Chinese rather than the West as they don't attach a lot of riders and/or conditions like human rights progress to their loans'. I keep in touch with some of the people from those days, and they uniformly regret what they said, slowly realizing that they have been sold a con job and real harm was occurring in their nations. Moreover, none of them have good ideas as to getting out of China's debt trap. Finally, the awful realization of what their previous foolishness was going to cost long-term and just what it would take to get the proverbial 'Monkey' off their back leads them to despair.

https://apnews.com/article/china-debt-banking-loans-financial-developing-countries-collapse-8df6f9fac3e1e758d0e6d8d5dfbd3ed6

Who is in debt to China and how much do they owe? The link (below) had good, clear graphs and data laying out the poor people and their burden.

https://intellinews.com/countries-most-in-debt-to-china-274640/#:~:text=At the end of 2021,the biggest debts to China.

(Intellinews, link above)

Finally, if one looks closely at the data/charts showing China's debtors, you see that Thailand comes in as a country with "No Data". 

Hmm...

Double Hmm...

So, exactly how much does Thailand owe China? I was unable to find any recent, reliable information, but considering that the Junta leapt into China's arms just after the coup eight years ago, announced that China would fund/build linking railroads as part of the BRI, announced that Thailand would purchase Chinese submarines, etc, etc, etc, and combine it with China's demand for secrecy in its debt loans, one has to assume that Thailand has a debt, that it is likely big (VERY big), and that neither we nor the Thai people know much about it.

I have a hunch that the new government is going to be in for a deeply unpleasant surprise.

 

 

[Poolie]

Not the old 'debt diplomacy' theme. It's been scuppered a million times.

A neologism, the term was first coined by Indian academic Brahma Chellaney in 2017, to allege that the Chinese government leverages the debt burden of smaller countries for geopolitical ends. However, other analysts have described the idea of a Chinese debt trap as a "myth" or "distraction".

Wiki.

[Shade_Wilder]

1 hour ago, Poolie said:

Not the old 'debt diplomacy' theme. It's been scuppered a million times.

A neologism, the term was first coined by Indian academic Brahma Chellaney in 2017, to allege that the Chinese government leverages the debt burden of smaller countries for geopolitical ends. However, other analysts have described the idea of a Chinese debt trap as a "myth" or "distraction".

Wiki.

 

Afternoon Mr Poolie

I suspected that we'd see your smiling face here sooner rather than later. Alas, given your endless parroting of the Chinese Communist Party line, it is hard to take your post seriously. Moreover, you might want to take a closer look at the Wiki you mention to support your misguided view; while it does note that a few don't support the idea of Debt Diplomacy, it actually provides much data to support the idea.

However, neither yourself not Wiki (as much as I love it) can even remotely match the credibility of the Associated Press. That is pretty much the end of the argument for me, unless you can offer credible evidence to support your position.

Please give my regards to your Chinese Communist Party Masters and tell them that I think you are doing an admiral job on their behalf.

Have a nice day.

 

 

[Poolie]

As usual, you attack the poster and not the post, so I have responded in kind. Have a nice day. 

[Pinetree]

6 hours ago, Poolie said:

Not the old 'debt diplomacy' theme. It's been scuppered a million times.

A neologism, the term was first coined by Indian academic Brahma Chellaney in 2017, to allege that the Chinese government leverages the debt burden of smaller countries for geopolitical ends. However, other analysts have described the idea of a Chinese debt trap as a "myth" or "distraction".

Wiki.

BS.  If you believe that you'll believe anything. 

[Poolie]

57 minutes ago, Pinetree said:

BS.  If you believe that you'll believe anything. 

Then prove it's wrong? With a non-biased, fact based summery. And a lack of obscenity, please, there's really no need. 

[Vigo]

12 hours ago, Poolie said:

Not the old 'debt diplomacy' theme. It's been scuppered a million times.

A neologism, the term was first coined by Indian academic Brahma Chellaney in 2017, to allege that the Chinese government leverages the debt burden of smaller countries for geopolitical ends. However, other analysts have described the idea of a Chinese debt trap as a "myth" or "distraction".

Wiki.

Who are these other "analysts"?  Are they independent or PRC cronies?

[Shade_Wilder]

7 hours ago, Poolie said:

Then prove it's wrong? With a non-biased, fact based summery.

Er... that is precisely what the Associated Press article/analysis is; a non-biased, fact-based summary by the globally-respected Associated Press.

Respectfully, vaguely quoting Wikipedia isn't a reply, it is a nonsensical dodge. And, by the way, the Wikipedia page you quote from doesn't exactly support your position; perhaps you should have read all of it before using it.

Can I suggest that you should look at the OP/Associated Press article/analysis again?

It is both informative and compelling, and you'll learn a great deal.

[Pinetree]

12 hours ago, Poolie said:

Then prove it's wrong? With a non-biased, fact based summery. And a lack of obscenity, please, there's really no need. 

If you don't, or won't, or can't see what China really is, what they really are up to with other Nations, the poor ones, (Sri Lanka is a great example) what their evil ambitions are, (Militarizing the disputed Islands in the South China Sea) how criminal they are, (exporting arms to criminal regimes)  how terrible they are to their own people, (ethnic cleansing on a grand scale)  how untrustworthy they are, (remember Covid and the Hong Kong deal?) how manipulative they are, (we are your big friend until you can't pay your debt to us, just ask Mauritius) what a danger they are to World peace, (Taiwan, supporting that fat lunatic in North Korea), then you, and people like you,  are part of the problem and need to stop being so naïve, wake up and smell the coffee,  If you won't change your deluded opinions, then I would suggest that you just keep them to yourself. 

[Poolie]

 

2 hours ago, Pinetree said:

If you don't, or won't, or can't see what China really is, what they really are up to with other Nations, the poor ones, (Sri Lanka is a great example) what their evil ambitions are, (Militarizing the disputed Islands in the South China Sea) how criminal they are, (exporting arms to criminal regimes)  how terrible they are to their own people, (ethnic cleansing on a grand scale)  how untrustworthy they are, (remember Covid and the Hong Kong deal?) how manipulative they are, (we are your big friend until you can't pay your debt to us, just ask Mauritius) what a danger they are to World peace, (Taiwan, supporting that fat lunatic in North Korea), then you, and people like you,  are part of the problem and need to stop being so naïve, wake up and smell the coffee,  If you won't change your deluded opinions, then I would suggest that you just keep them to yourself. 

So, no ' non-biased, fact based summery' then, as I thought. Just an attack on the poster.  Have a lovely day.

[Rookiescot]

4 minutes ago, Poolie said:

So, no ' non-biased, fact based summery' then, as I thought. Just an attack on the poster.  Have a lovely day.

Can you provide a list of sources you approve of?

The OP came from Associated Press. You don't really get a more non-biased fact based news source than that.

You were also asked to provide links to sources which counter the narrative that China is committing debt imperialism but have so far failed to do so. The Wiki link you provided does not do that.

[Onthedimside]

If you borrow money you need pay back , the politicians borrow the money ( supposedly on behalf of the people ) knowing that the debt will not be their problem but the praise and benefits will be theirs . If the politicians were to be partially responsible ( financially, maybe loss of  pension ) would they still borrow?

[MITS]

 

The narrative wrongfully portrays both Beijing and the developing countries it deals with.

By Deborah Brautigam and Meg Rithmire

 

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/02/china-debt-trap-diplomacy/617953/

 

Edited May 23, 2023 by KaptainRob
Oversized font removed

[MITS]

https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2022/07/11/debt-trap-sri-lanka-west-china/

 

As of 2021, a staggering 81% of Sri Lanka’s foreign debt was owned by US and European financial institutions, as well as Western allies Japan and India.

This pales in comparison to the mere 10% owed to Beijing.

 

[EdwardV]

17 hours ago, MITS said:

This pales in comparison to the mere 10% owed to Beijing.

Official data from Sri Lanka's Finance Ministry shows China accounting for only about 10% of the country's $35.1 billion in external debt at the end of April 2021. But some observers reckon that figure may cover only government-to-government debt. A report released in June by two Sri Lankan economists, based on information requested from the Finance Ministry, provides a different picture. Looking at public and publicly guaranteed debt -- which includes commercial lending to the government and loans to Sri Lankan state-owned enterprises -- China's share totaled 20% at the end of last year.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Sri-Lanka-crisis/How-much-does-Sri-Lanka-owe-China-Question-looms-over-new-president

As the original article points out, the problem is no one actually knows how much is owed to China. In addition, the Chinese debt is more of a burden since it has higher interest rates and payment schedule. With China's unwillingness to be open with details of the amounts and terms, no one else will negotiate on debt relief. You can't just look at percentages owed and understand why the problem exists. That said, a lot of these countries are going to go belly up and taking possession of infrastructure no one uses isn't going to bail out the Chinese banks. That's if some of the countries even allow China to take possession... 

[Shade_Wilder]

 

This seems to be a week whereby respected international news organizations are going head-to-head in their reporting on China, and I love it; I think we all benefit when entities like Reuters and the AP dig a little deeper during an "old fashioned newspaper war".

The Reuters story (below) delves into China's hacking operations against Kenya, with a focus on exactly how will be repaying their loans to China, and it is worth giving that some thought; China is using its State Espionage Agencies to hack a... Partner(?), Client(?), Friend(?) in order to further its commercial and political operations.

Reuters;

"NAIROBI, May 24 (Reuters) - Chinese hackers targeted Kenya's government in a widespread, years-long series of digital intrusions against key ministries and state institutions, according to three sources, cybersecurity research reports and Reuters' own analysis of technical data related to the hackings.

Two of the sources assessed the hacks to be aimed, at least in part, at gaining information on debt owed to Beijing by the East African nation: Kenya is a strategic link in the Belt and Road Initiative - President Xi Jinping's plan for a global infrastructure network.

"Further compromises may occur as the requirement for understanding upcoming repayment strategies becomes needed," a July 2021 research report written by a defense contractor for private clients stated..."

(It is worth going to read the entire story; this sample helps, but the entire article is needed for comprehension of some of the issues involved._

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/chinese-hackers-attacked-kenyan-government-debt-strains-grew-2023-05-24/

This says a lot about China and how it views its place in the world. Yes, every country spies on every other country, even their closest friends, but rarely would it go to this length of hacking eight ministries; the price to be paid for such a breech would be deemed too great for most. However, not for China. There is an old saying in International Relations circles that 'nations don't have friends, they have interests' which carries a lot of truth, but there has also been an understanding that a nation shouldn't go 'too far' in spying on its friends; it seems that China doesn't respect that nuance.

What can be done with China?

At the beginning of the millennia, global powers decided to try to entice China into the global order, most notably by allowing it to join the WTO, so that China would see its own interest in maintaining and enhancing the status quo by becoming a stakeholder. Sadly, it hasn't worked as planned as I still think it was the correct policy move, but "thems the breaks". Currently, it seems like global powers are pursuing a policy of "De-Risk" and "De-Coupling" in order to be able to punish (er... "influence". I meant "Influence".) China as needed without doing too much harm to their own interests. 

Is this going to work? Maybe. I have no wish to go too far into the 'weeds', but it is a race among some powers to create a situation whereby they can influence (like a mobster 'influences'; "I'll make him an offer he can't refuse") China before China can negate being influenced.

The "Great Game" indeed.

There are some that think we (Westerners) should try to contain China, but I don't think that can work. I don't think it was ever a serious option as roughly a quarter of the globe's population lives there; are/were you going to keep them down forever? No. There are some that think a war is inevitable, and I pray that they are wrong.

I think that the general current policy of trying to entice China into becoming a stakeholder of a global, rules-based order is the best outcome, if (repeat "IF") it can be done at an acceptable price. I think we still need to figure out the correct balance of "Carrot and Stick" for behaviour modification, before it is too late.

Agree? Disagree?

 

[Viggen840]

On 5/21/2023 at 7:35 AM, Onthedimside said:

If you borrow money you need pay back , the politicians borrow the money ( supposedly on behalf of the people ) knowing that the debt will not be their problem but the praise and benefits will be theirs . If the politicians were to be partially responsible ( financially, maybe loss of  pension ) would they still borrow?

No way in hell would any politician put their money on the line as a guarantee for a debt to another country.