42-billion-baht aid package to cushion the financial impact of Covid restrictions

[Thaiger]

The government will provide a 42-billion-baht aid package for businesses and individuals affected by the latest Covid-19 restrictions in the 10 “dark red” provinces. The Bangkok Post reports that 30 billion baht of the relief package will come from the government’s loan decree, while the other 12 billion will come from the national budget. The provinces of Bangkok, Nakhon Pathom, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, Samut Prakan, Samut Sakhon, Narathiwat, Pattani, Yala, and Songkhla are currently under a “partial lockdown” to curb the rapid rise in Covid-19 infections. The aid package has been approved by Cabinet and announced by PM Prayut Chan-o-cha […]

The post 42-billion-baht aid package to cushion the financial impact of Covid restrictions appeared first on Thaiger News.

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[gummy]

And what about all the individuals who worked in those areas but after losing their jobs have now returned to their home province I wonder ?

[ozz1]

the money tree  (reserves )must still have some left must be getting thin by now 

[Graham]

Too little too late, this should have been in the plan after the shutdown in Dec so that it could be implemented when the next wave came in April but unfortunately for the people of Thailand the government can't organize anything (apart from parades and their love of photo op's).

What is it going to take for the people of Thailand to wake up and realize what this sham government is doing to them.

[AlexPTY]

i am just looking at that baht/USD exchange rate and it's not buying it, i guess Thailand's pockets are not empty yet

[AussieBob]

3 hours ago, Graham said:

Too little too late, this should have been in the plan after the shutdown in Dec so that it could be implemented when the next wave came in April but unfortunately for the people of Thailand the government can't organize anything (apart from parades and their love of photo op's).

What is it going to take for the people of Thailand to wake up and realize what this sham government is doing to them.

The Thai people know full well what they are - but there is little chance for them to do anything about it. Hopefully the Junta will be thrown out at the next elections, and they will accept that decision - unlike their mates in Myanmar. 

[KaptainRob]

Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves was measured at 234.4 USD bn in Mar 2021

[SickBuffalo]

12 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

Hopefully the Junta will be thrown out at the next elections

How?

They rewrote the constitution to allow the army to appoint the upper house, giving them a stranglehold on power forever. Then they disbanded the opposition party who most effectively complained about it.

Votes are not going to be what gets them out. Right now, the most likely exit is that a more hardline faction of the military will get the nod to take over.

[HolyCowCm]

25 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

The Thai people know full well what they are - but there is little chance for them to do anything about it. Hopefully the Junta will be thrown out at the next elections, and they will accept that decision - unlike their mates in Myanmar. 

They will be more dug in than ever if there are any open elections or opponent politicians not yet eliminated in jail or jumped to t heir side.

[vlad]

This is a Government that cheated on there own people, and rigged the voting.  Anyone gets in there way, or looks like a threat end up with a pair of concrete shoes in the Mekong. Or they trump up charges against Politicians that force them to leave the Country and add, that if they ever return to Thailand a cell is waiting for them if there lucky.

Edited July 14, 2021 by vlad

[AussieBob]

10 minutes ago, SickBuffalo said:

How?

They rewrote the constitution to allow the army to appoint the upper house, giving them a stranglehold on power forever. Then they disbanded the opposition party who most effectively complained about it.

Votes are not going to be what gets them out. Right now, the most likely exit is that a more hardline faction of the military will get the nod to take over.

How? Good question - and no one has all the answers - but I will give it a go.

I am hopeful that the Opposition parties will realise that the best approach is to unite and present a clear Party alternative to the Junta at the next election. Then as long as that Party/Group wins enough votes (more than the Junta Party), they can form an alliance with other anti-Junta groups and form Government. The Junta will encourage them to all remain as separate Parties of course, because they know their biggest strength is that they are united (under a command structure).  

Unlike in Myamar, where the economy in not reliant on foreign trade/tourism as much as Thailand's is, the Junta will not be so free to do another coup, if the vote goes the wrong way for them.  The wealthy elite, and others, in Thailand will know that if the Junta 'does a Myanmar', that many countries like USA and Australia and Japan and Korea and in Europe, will respond with economic and trade sanctions.  That will be made very clear in the lead up to the next elections, and I suspect that the powerful elite will behind the scenes ensure that this is taken into account by those in the Junta. 

I am also hopeful that the transition of the Military into 'civilian' politics after the 2014 coup, will greatly reduce the potential for the military in Thailand to ever again conduct another coup without risking economic ruin. Whilst in the past the military could say they did it for the country - because after changing things they went 'back to their barracks' - they are now essentially a political party because they decided to 'stay'.  If the Thai people reject them at the next election, the military cannot again (well, for a decade) say that the people 'wanted' them to implement yet another coup.

The Thailand Senate situation will be one of the first things that a new non-military Govt will change. That and an undoing of a lot of the changes made by the Junta to the Courts system and the Constition will also be undertaken. It is amazing how things can change when economic ruin is staring into the faces of those with the power and influence to address such matters.

The Junta will be made very aware of what has just happened in Sth Africa and that this is what could easily happen in Thailand - if they do not cooperate and peacefully leave, if they lose the next election.  And it would therefore be a smart move by the Opposition to guarantee that if they win the election, they will not seek legal or financial redress against the Junta leaders.  To do so would give them incentive to take matters into their own hands again even if they lost. But the Opposition will of course conduct an investigation as to whether they should ever be allowed to run for election again.

Yes I am an optimist - does it show??

 

[AussieBob]

55 minutes ago, KaptainRob said:

Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves was measured at 234.4 USD bn in Mar 2021

Very true Skipper - but there are serious underlying financial and economic issues that are facing Tghailand.

This guys has been saying these things for a while - eventually he will be right I reckon:

Govt must spend this B500bn wisely (bangkokpost.com)

 

[AussieBob]

32 minutes ago, HolyCowCm said:

They will be more dug in than ever if there are any open elections or opponent politicians not yet eliminated in jail or jumped to t heir side.

Reminds me of the first Predator movie :  "dug in like an Alabama tick".

 

[KaptainRob]

7 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

Very true Skipper - but there are serious underlying financial and economic issues that are facing Tghailand.

This guys has been saying these things for a while - eventually he will be right I reckon:

Govt must spend this B500bn wisely (bangkokpost.com)

I read that, note the final para > 

"If the government does not want to issue a large amount of sovereign bonds in the international market within a short period of time, they can discuss with the BoT purchasing or warehousing part or all of these sovereign bonds in their international reserve funds. Now the government has money. The next step, which is more important, is how to spend it wisely. The previous 1 trillion baht spending already proved to be a failure."

[SickBuffalo]

@AussieBob This is just a quick reply because I'm rushing out, but I appreciate your long post.

Thailand has been able to have so many coups primarily because the throne uses its authority to validate them.

Thailand is a big, wealthy country controlled by an unusually small elite who hold onto an usually big slice of the pie, almost all of it.

The throne is a front for the elite families.

The army acts entirely in their interests.

It is an eternal triangle: Elites, Throne, Army.

The flirtation with modern democracy under Thaksin - giving a tiny slice of the pie back to the people in the form of rural clinics and modest pensions - caused outrage in Bangkok. Doing something for the voters, something we take for granted in the West, was framed as "anti-democratic" because it was "bribing the poor". So, we had the hilarious sight of "Democracy" protests in the capitol demanding that an overwhelmingly popular elected leader be deposed.

The problem with democracy, for the Thai elites, was that people kept voting the wrong way. The 2014 coup was intended to be a final solution. By rewriting the constitution and putting it to a referendum in which no opposition to the amendment was allowed to be discussed, the army sold the idea that, after so many decades of trouble, Thailand could have stability by giving the army permanent control of the upper house, meaning they could retain power with even just a small portion of the lower house elected by the people (minus all the opposition parties that were banned).

By design, there is no formulation by which the opposition parties can wrest control from the army. The elites are settled in comfortably and envision nothing but continued feudal dominance for centuries to come.

 

Edited July 14, 2021 by SickBuffalo

[HolyCowCm]

35 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

Reminds me of the first Predator movie :  "dug in like an Alabama tick".

Yes and sucking every little bit of life out to feed themselves.

[Soidog]

1 hour ago, AussieBob said:

they are now essentially a political party because they decided to 'stay'.  If the Thai people reject them at the next election, the military cannot again (well, for a decade) say that the people 'wanted' them to implement yet another coup

Good input AussieBob. The above is of particular relevance. In the past, as you indicate, the military have also justified the coup on the basis of solving a problem. Even though some of those problems have been manufactured, such as the “democracy” protests. The problem this time is that the military have stayed around for too long and are now seen as “the problem”. It’s likely the way out for them is to arrange some loyal middle ground of government such as the Abhisit era. Then as you have also suggested, they can wait for 7-10 years for the next “problem” and step back in again. Essentially it’s the same dreadful cycle the country has seen for generations.
 

I have to say however, that what the elite and the military have achieved in Thailand is extremely clever. They have established a link to the highest authority in Thailand and portray themselves as its guardian. They have a firm grip on the education (indoctrination) system. They give jobs and just enough money to keep people quiet (very few actually starve in Thailand). Finally, they try to limit the middle class discomfort and influence. Middle classes are normally the group who upend dictators. They have sufficient power and financial resources to create problems. In Thailand the most recent example of this has been Thanathorn and his Future Forward/Move Forward party. He is a middle class upstart who they are working hard to control. It’s this group of people who can be the spark for real change if they so choose???

[AussieBob]

4 hours ago, KaptainRob said:

I read that, note the final para > 

"If the government does not want to issue a large amount of sovereign bonds in the international market within a short period of time, they can discuss with the BoT purchasing or warehousing part or all of these sovereign bonds in their international reserve funds. Now the government has money. The next step, which is more important, is how to spend it wisely. The previous 1 trillion baht spending already proved to be a failure."

The author, Chartchai Parasuk, has been predicting dire economic pain for the Thai economy for a couple of years at least.  So far what he has written has made sense and has panned out as he predicted. The Baht is starting to drop already and their is currently a net outflow of capital from Thailand. Many factors involved, but in summary the Junta has been spending up big on military equipment and large infrastructure projects, which has been making the numbers look good, but there has a massive and growing liquidity problem that one day must be addressed. If Thailand does not address the matter itself, then the world financial markets eventually will, and Thailand could follow in the footsteps of Greece. 

[AussieBob]

4 hours ago, SickBuffalo said:

@AussieBob This is just a quick reply because I'm rushing out, but I appreciate your long post.

Thailand has been able to have so many coups primarily because the throne uses its authority to validate them.

Thailand is a big, wealthy country controlled by an unusually small elite who hold onto an usually big slice of the pie, almost all of it.

The throne is a front for the elite families.

The army acts entirely in their interests.

It is an eternal triangle: Elites, Throne, Army.

The flirtation with modern democracy under Thaksin - giving a tiny slice of the pie back to the people in the form of rural clinics and modest pensions - caused outrage in Bangkok. Doing something for the voters, something we take for granted in the West, was framed as "anti-democratic" because it was "bribing the poor". So, we had the hilarious sight of "Democracy" protests in the capitol demanding that an overwhelmingly popular elected leader be deposed.

The problem with democracy, for the Thai elites, was that people kept voting the wrong way. The 2014 coup was intended to be a final solution. By rewriting the constitution and putting it to a referendum in which no opposition to the amendment was allowed to be discussed, the army sold the idea that, after so many decades of trouble, Thailand could have stability by giving the army permanent control of the upper house, meaning they could retain power with even just a small portion of the lower house elected by the people (minus all the opposition parties that were banned).

By design, there is no formulation by which the opposition parties can wrest control from the army. The elites are settled in comfortably and envision nothing but continued feudal dominance for centuries to come.

Hard to argue against those points @SickBuffalo - and probably exactly what the elite and wealthy are hoping will remain in place for a long time. However, they have enriched themselves on the back of international trade growth and me thinks the Bible said it right: "He who lives by the sword, will die by the sword".  It will be international pressure and trade sanctions that start the decline. 

[AussieBob]

3 hours ago, Soidog said:

Good input AussieBob. The above is of particular relevance. In the past, as you indicate, the military have also justified the coup on the basis of solving a problem. Even though some of those problems have been manufactured, such as the “democracy” protests. The problem this time is that the military have stayed around for too long and are now seen as “the problem”. It’s likely the way out for them is to arrange some loyal middle ground of government such as the Abhisit era. Then as you have also suggested, they can wait for 7-10 years for the next “problem” and step back in again. Essentially it’s the same dreadful cycle the country has seen for generations.
 

I have to say however, that what the elite and the military have achieved in Thailand is extremely clever. They have established a link to the highest authority in Thailand and portray themselves as its guardian. They have a firm grip on the education (indoctrination) system. They give jobs and just enough money to keep people quiet (very few actually starve in Thailand). Finally, they try to limit the middle class discomfort and influence. Middle classes are normally the group who upend dictators. They have sufficient power and financial resources to create problems. In Thailand the most recent example of this has been Thanathorn and his Future Forward/Move Forward party. He is a middle class upstart who they are working hard to control. It’s this group of people who can be the spark for real change if they so choose???

It is always when things seem to be at their worst and cannot be changed, when circumstances develop that bring about change. Change will happen as sure as sh** flows downhill - it is all a matter of temperature and time. And I can see things 'hotting up' in Thailand in the next few years.  There will be an election before March 2023 and next time around I think the Thai people will vote for massive change and not the status quo.  The PM might well be re-instated by the Senate vote, but that would only be a temporary matter while things are changed in the Legislature process.  It will take time, but I do think it will happen.  

[KaptainRob]

36 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

If Thailand does not address the matter itself, then the world financial markets eventually will, and Thailand could follow in the footsteps of Greece. 

Greece is a poor example as they had borrowed well beyond their means as part of the EU community.  Also, the Greek people were lazy, didn't want to work as social security payments were so lucrative.

Thailand's problems, politics aside, began with the global downturn exacerbated by poor economic management and then covid came along.

Thailand's major exports include IT services, and manufactured products, the latter* in diminishing demand.  Agriculture and tourism forms a small % of GDP but they put money in more pockets than other sectors.

* Computer components are in high demand but raw material supply has been disrupted; vehicle and whitegoods suffering a downturn and serious logistics problems etc.  Even food chain supply, easily flown in, has been disrupted.

Thailand is already in trouble and it will likely worsen, mainly for the low paid.  Parents and older family can only support offspring, cousins etc for so long.

[SnapDragon]

i

1 hour ago, AussieBob said:

Hard to argue against those points @SickBuffalo - and probably exactly what the elite and wealthy are hoping will remain in place for a long time. However, they have enriched themselves on the back of international trade growth and me thinks the Bible said it right: "He who lives by the sword, will die by the sword".  It will be international pressure and trade sanctions that start the decline. 

In my estimation, it will all come to a head as soon as there is a major conflict (next 5 years). The elites will have everything to lose and nothing to gain.

Just a couple of many points:

In Crimea, a British War-ship sailed within Russian territorial waters, and four shots were fired; which missed the ship, but were close enough to send a message; do not do it again.

The Middle East is a basket case. There is British personnel working undercover in Yemen. The Americans just about everywhere and the Israelis are, as well as the US, constantly warning Iran. To seemingly make matters worse - from a US standpoint - the Iranians and China are discussing a 30 year trade deal; not using the US Dollar.

Gas from Russia to Germany is a thorn in the US's side also. And the company that controls the pipe-line is Swiss, so that's another factor.

Then there are the South China Sea shenanigans. The Brits have sailed their war-ship there to give the US moral, if not actual support.

Thailand will have to make decisions if it all kicks off; we all will. The US sees Thailand as one of its few allies in the area, while China would surely want Thailand to fall into line. The Thai military will be in Zugzwang.

A conflict will be a great shock to the Thai people. They are not so well versed on world affairs. However, Thailand can feed itself.

Another threat to world order is a financial crash. It appears that the Russians are slowly dumping their dollars. China would probably like to do the same, but it would hurt them too much at the mo'. But their way is to spend dollars in far-off lands to gain advantage on infrastructure.

I feel that Thailand is shortly to be at a crossroads. Which way will it jump?

Edited July 14, 2021 by snapdragon

[AussieBob]

1 minute ago, KaptainRob said:

Greece is a poor example as they had borrowed well beyond their means as part of the EU community.  Also, the Greek people were lazy, didn't want to work as social security payments were so lucrative.

Thailand's problems, politics aside, began with the global downturn exacerbated by poor economic management and then covid came along.

Thailand's major exports include IT services, and manufactured products, the latter* in diminishing demand.  Agriculture and tourism forms a small % of GDP but they put money in more pockets than other sectors.

* Computer components are in high demand but raw material supply has been disrupted; vehicle and whitegoods suffering a downturn and serious logistics problems etc.  Even food chain supply, easily flown in, has been disrupted.

Thailand is already in trouble and it will likely worsen, mainly for the low paid.  Parents and older family can only support offspring, cousins etc for so long.

Perhaps Greece not so good - but although the reasons are not the same - the outcomes are very similar.

Massive Greek debts that were swept under the carpet because the big brother (EU/IMF) would always bail them out, and then they stopped bailing them out.   Thailand has an ever growing debt problem that cannot be sustained over the long term - and if/when China backs away they are in serious trouble. Can you imagine if the Thai banks had to write of all those bad loans at their real value and account for all the holding assets at their real market value? 

Then again, maybe China will be more than happy to step in and buyout Thailand and turn it into a true little brother clone - but I think the Thai people (all levels) would have a major problem with that and would take serious actions.  

[KaptainRob]

Thai's may kowtow to China but they don't want to be in their pocket.  There's a long unforgettable history between Thai-chinese people, many fled here to escape communist oppression.

[AussieBob]

5 minutes ago, snapdragon said:

i

In my estimation, it will all come to a head as soon as there is a major conflict (next 5 years). The elites will have everything to lose and noting to gain.

Just a couple of many points:

In Crimea a British War-ship sailed within Russian territorial waters and shots were fired. Four of them, which missed the ship, but were close enough to send a message; do not do it again.

The Middle East is a basket case. There is British working undercover in Yemen. The Americans just about everywhere and the Israelis are, as well as the US, constantly warning Iran. To seemingly make matters worse - from a US standpoint - the Iranians and China are discussing a 30 year trade deal; not using the US Dollar.

Gas from Russia to Germany is a thorn in the US's side also. And the company that controls the pipe-line is Swiss, so that's another factor.

Then there are the South China Sea shenanigans. The Brits have sailed their war-ship there to give the US moral, if not actual support.

Thailand will have to make decisions if it all kicks off; we all will. The US sees Thailand as one of its few allies in the area, while China would surely want Thailand to fall into line. The Thai military will be in Zugzwang.

A conflict will be a great shock to the Thai people. They are not so well versed on world affairs. However, Thailand can feed itself.

Another threat to world order is a financial crash. It appears that the Russians are slowly dumping their dollars. China would probably like to do the same, but it would hurt them too much at the mo'. But their way is to spend dollars in far-off lands to gain advantage on infrastructure.

I feel that Thailand is shortly to be at a crossroads. Which way will it jump?

I agree with that @snapdragon - the potential for conflict is ever growing and that would definitely put Thailand into the spotlight.  But it may not go beyond a 'trade war' - which if/when it happens will result in Japan, Korea, Australia/NZ, Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, India and Singapore aligning with USA and UK and probably most of the EU. China and Russia are already aligning as you say, and I think Thailand will have to chose a side this time around. Post Covid will be interesting times for Thailand.