When will the Covid Pandemic finish

[AussieBob]

Why do radical left wingers take everything negative to be because of past politics, and if the 'correct' politics was implemented and the rules were all changed to support their views, everything would be wonderful. 

Why do radical right wingers take everything negative to be because of lack of freedoms, and if the 'correct' politics was implemented and the rules were all changed to support their views, everything would be wonderful. 

If I recall history, both of those have been tried and they have so far not succeeded.  Seems to me that the most wonderful places in the world, are where the most wonderful people are (like Thailand), and that there are no wonderful politicians anywhere - and I do not think there ever will be. I understand that Buddha saw politics not as an end in itself as we do in the west, but as an instrument that could either provide favourable conditions or create harmful obstructions, for individuals’ personal advancement.  The issue being that it is up to each individual to create a 'wonderful' world - the solution is not Governments - they are clearly the problem.  

[Jeanette]

In my opinion , the pandemic will end when everyone is fully vaccinated and a herd immunity is developed. But under the present circumstances from what we see and read of the spread of the Delta variant,   it looks like we are not going to have herd immunity. It just means it’s going to become endemic and then the question is, is it going to be mild and endemic, or is it going to be severe and endemic? And I would say my odds are on mild and endemic at some point. I think that seems really, really likely. This might take 2-3 years to end. We can just wait with patience and integrity for this pandemic to subside and for our life to return to the new normal. A paradigm shift happening.

[chanog]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

looks like usa is going through 3rd wave.

 

god saves our world

[HuaHinHappy]

Summer of 2022 should see a decrease in cases, but it will require mass vaccination and travel restrictions and screening to get Covid  to a manageable infectious disease. I doubt that will happen as long as   countries like the USA, Russia, Pakistan, Philippines etc. have large numbers of  people who refuse to be vaccinated.  

Thailand will see some bad times ahead and unless the mRNA  and updated Astra Zeneca vaccines arrive by October, there will be no high season. I expect that we will soon start to see a hundreds of daily deaths and tens of thousands of daily infections. Rainy season will drive people indoors and that's when the infection will really spread.  It's going to be tough for the next 6 months.

[JamesE]

2 hours ago, chanog said:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

looks like usa is going through 3rd wave.

god saves our world

A fair amount of breakthrough cases in vaccinated individuals though. Most "mild to moderate", AKA not requiring hospitalization, but I'm not as worried as dying from it as I am about getting long-haul COVID.

[TiT]

1 hour ago, HuaHinHappy said:

there will be no high season.

ever again

[JamesE]

57 minutes ago, TiT said:

ever again

Probably closer to the truth than we'd like to consider.

[DontacoXII]

On 7/10/2021 at 8:32 PM, AussieBob said:

In My Opinion:

The first thing I want to state is that the Covid19 vaccines (all of them) do not stop you getting covid - they make infection less likely - but it is not a 'cure' like a Polio Vaccination.  Think the annual flu vaccination - and think about the fact that there is a 'new' flu vaccine every year for the mutations that have developed since the last flu season.  Whatever vaccine anyone gets now will not be fully effective for the Zeta or Eta mutations (current Delta mutation + 2 new mutations). Any vaccine will be useful and is far far better than no vaccine - but given the fast rates of mutations in Covid19 - think getting the flu vaccine in 2016 and no annual updates/boosters since then.

My advice to all thinking of returning to Thailand, is to stop thinking about Thailand - think about all of SEAsia.  Just about every country in SEAsia is currently experiencing massive increases in new cases and deaths - and it appears the Delta mutation (India) is the main issue.  But also think about the fact that it is Winter here down in the South, and there might very well be another mutation or two that will hit the Northern Hemisphere in their next Winter.  Until the current explosion in SEAsia I was optimistic that things would settle by end 2021 and in early 2022 we would be able to travel to Thailand. Now I am not so sure - I hope I am wrong - but it seems to me that there is more to come.  

The Spanish Flu was a brand new virus and it lasted 3.5 years and included 4 waves that swept the globe - they now know that each of those waves was due to a virulent mutation. There were lots of mutations, as there are with any virus, but not all of them 'succeed' in becoming virulent and spreading quickly.  Lockdowns masks etc will not stop a virulent virus - unless like Australia they lockdown the whole country - like Taiwan also did (and China).  But even then with total control, Taiwan had a recent outbreak and Australia now has one as well, and they are both now struggling to keep the lid down.  What lockdowns and masks do is they slow down the rate of infections - and ideally they keep the medical system from being totally overloaded - like what happened in India. What stops any virus (but never completely kills it) is herd immunity and that can only be obtained through natural recovery and through vaccinations.

If history repeats, and it sure looks that way, then without massive vaccinations (like they did not have with Spanish Flu) this new Covid19 worldwide pandemic virus would not be over for 3.5 years - and that is early/mid 2023.  But with vaccines being implemented on a scale never before seen in the world, and with infections spreading and new mutations occurring and spreading so quickly worldwide these days, then maybe it will be 'under control' by early/mid 2022. 

That is my target date for us being able to return to Thailand - March-July 2022.   I hope that things become much better in the whole world (not just in Thailand) before then - but that is my target date to travel and stay in Thailand. 

It will never go away. Until the next virus comes out. No more flu anymore now it’s all about covid. It’s not a sin to be covid positive and the mortality rate isn’t that high. You just see now every single person who is covid positive and has died of any reason. Negative news sells. It’s spreading quickly now in Thailand and that’s good. Soon everyone will have natural antibodies and it’ll be just like a common cold or flu except the media will hold on as long as they can to scare people. Nothing to fear but fear itself. 

[Thinker1951]

On 7/10/2021 at 11:54 PM, SickBuffalo said:

Thailand is now, finally, going through what many Western countries went through in 2020 and early '21.

We know how the pandemic played out in the West.

Those of us who know Thailand well know precisely why they are in the mess they are currently in, and all the factors in Thai society that have nothing to do with the virus but that have shaped their current ridiculous restrictions.

If we apply basic common sense, and filter out all the noise coming from those who have sadly been driven insane by conspiracy theories, we can figure out the events that are going to end the pandemic in Thailand too. We cannot put an exact date on when that will be, because we don't know when certain factors will fall into place, but I am optimistic that a lot of this stuff will happen more quickly than most of you think.

Let's not get lost in the minutiae. We are talking about the Thai population as a whole. Not every Thai needs to get vaccinated, and the vaccines don't need to be perfect. We just need to slow it enough to drive the R0 down. The virus will probably be with us forever, this is about getting Covid deaths down to a low enough figure that we can restart the world, something we need to do as a matter of extreme urgency. 

Europe

Despite the Delta variant presenting challenges to the younger parts of the European population who have not yet had the opportunity to get vaccinated, knowledgeable people are confident that anyone fully inoculated (both shots + two weeks) with one of the most effective vaccines - Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca - will be reasonably resistant to any variant that comes along. With sufficient exposure, yes, they can become infected but it is unlikely to develop enough to infect others. In most cases, these people will act as blockers, even if they get infected themselves.

Biontech and Moderna's mRNA technology is a miracle, and Pfizer's manufacturing and distribution have turned out to be a miracle too. Due to extraordinary bureaucratic incompetence, Europe was in deep trouble at the start of this year. Over the following six months, that situation was almost single-handedly reversed by Pfizer. They were the only supplier able to ramp up far beyond their original projections. Most Europeans in their 40s presumed they would be offered their first shot of AstraZeneca in October. Now, in July, they have almost all received their second shot of Pfizer.

The pandemic is not yet over in Europe but, as each country announces its new entry rules to coincide with the launch of the EU Digital Covid Certificate this month, we can see the pieces falling into place.

The new reality is that anyone who has either recovered from Covid or who is fully inoculated with the 3 effective vaccines will be traveling between European countries with no tests and no quarantines. It does not matter how you gained your immunity, by the end of this month you will be back to something approaching travel normality throughout Europe.

Those who are not yet immune will not be able to travel until they do get vaccinated or gain their immunity the hard way this summer.

Thailand

Just as a thought exercise, let's imagine if Pfizer were magically able to supply Thailand with 100m doses, spread over the next three months, and that the country made an all-out effort to provide them to every resident adult who wanted to be vaccinated. By the end of September, almost everyone would have robust immunity, either naturally acquired (Covid) or artificially acquired (fully vaccinated with Pfizer).

Even by August, they would be in a good position to join the rest of the world in opening up (no tests, no quarantine) to passengers fully inoculated with the 3 effective vaccines (which is going to be the standard throughout most of the world for at least the rest of this decade).

Now, obviously, Pfizer is not yet in a position to offer that to Thailand ... but ... I think they will be, and far sooner than expected. Last week we learned that big South Korean pharma manufacturers are in advanced talks with "a US mRNA vaccine company". Reading between the lines, that's Pfizer.

The South Koreans just happen to have massive existing plants already designed for modern vaccine production. The estimated starting capacity will be over a billion shots per year, and that can be rapidly expanded if necessary.

With the new Korean capacity in place, Pfizer is going to carpet bomb S.E. Asia, in the same way that they over delivered in Europe. What Thailand is going through right now is the darkest hour, but the landscape is going to shift dramatically over the next month or so.

Now, I still stand by my believe that Thailand could safely welcome properly vaccinated Westerners today without any tests or quarantines, but I appreciate that Thai public sentiment is currently hysterical. I agree that they will only accept re-opening if a serious vaccination programme, with no Chinese pretend vaccines, is at least already underway.

So, my prediction is that if Pfizer starts delivering those quantities by the first half of September, Thailand will fully open on the pre-Covid basis (no tests, no quarantines, no special insurance) to properly vaccinated tourists from the start of October.

I also predict that the current quarantine avenue into Thailand for the non-vaccinated will be discontinued quite soon. They may even cancel the Phuket sandbox if the public react badly to the rising death figures. When they do re-open to foreigners, it will be fully vaccinated only.

 

Well written, informative, I hope you are right. You are optimistic. We will see if the vaccines arrive. I agree until then lockdown, wear masks. Government needs to help the unemployed and buy the vaccines that work.

[Wanderer]

On 7/11/2021 at 10:07 AM, JamesE said:

I wasn't quite sure how "conspirasist" is spelled... "Conspiracist"? Dunno.

I would go along with the "c". But the fact that you even thought about it means that like myself you must be regularly labelled a grammar nazi. 

The sacrifices we make in the defence of our native tongue.

[Wally]

On 7/11/2021 at 9:59 AM, JamesE said:

(Note: If you are an anti-vaxxer, Big Pharma Conspirasist, or disavow mainstream scientific inquiry, no comment is necessary. We get your points but we're arguing from a different reality and, honestly, I just don't have the time.)

Wow, not wishing to be equally denigrating, but isn't it somewhat narcissistic to go on a "discussion forum" and write this? Here is my opinion, I am right, anyone that disagrees I'll label as a an idiot, I don't want their counter opinion and I'll refuse to read anything they have to write. There are phycological studies that clearly demonstrate the most ignorant in society are usually the ones that insist they are always right and will deliberately ignore any information to the contrary, seems the better educated and read tend more to philosophical introspection and do challenge their own beliefs.

If somehow unaware "Mainstream scientific inquiry" is heavily censored, world leading scientists are being censored, the doctor that invented mRNA vaccines has been scrubbed from the internet for raising serious ethical questions, even an ex Pfizer VP says they need more study and could be dangerous long term. However our poster, who presumably has zero qualifications in medical science, is assuring us that everything is good in the world of vaccines based on...his opinion, no dissent will be tolerated. The Nobel Laureate that discovered HIV has a different view, obviously he is yet another covidiot and conspiracy theorist to our armchair virologist?

This opinion may turn out correct, however to dismiss the possibility that you could be wrong is just a straightforward case of someone suffering severe confirmation bias.

[BigHewer]

4 hours ago, Wally said:

There are phycological studies that clearly demonstrate the most ignorant in society are usually the ones that insist they are always right and will deliberately ignore any information to the contrary, seems the better educated and read tend more to philosophical introspection and do challenge their own beliefs.

Right on, dude.

[JamesE]

9 hours ago, Wally said:

This opinion may turn out correct, however to dismiss the possibility that you could be wrong is just a straightforward case of someone suffering severe confirmation bias.

Yeah, but you would have had to be here a couple of weeks ago to see the pile-on many posters were receiving when discussing the from the "mainstream" viewpoint. I was trying to avoid that.

But not a bad first post Wally. You bring opinions without backup, statements without corroboration, and insults without knowledge.

What does a "phycological" study have to do with anything? Phycology is the study of algae. Perhaps you had something else in mind? Dunno.

[BigHewer]

7 hours ago, JamesE said:

Phycology is the study of algae. Perhaps you had something else in mind?

Algae is highly contentious, man. We all think this vaccine stuff is sensitive, but you get a room full of phycologists and the subject of polyphasic approaches to cyanobacterial taxonomy comes up, it can get ugly real quick.

[BlueSphinx]

On 7/11/2021 at 5:07 AM, JamesE said:

I wasn't quite sure how "conspirasist" is spelled... "Conspiracist"? Dunno.

Conspellacy