When will the Covid Pandemic finish

[HolyCowCm]

1 minute ago, AussieBob said:

And in USA UK and Europe ..................... 'winter is coming'.

Sorry - could not resist that.

Yes, it is ok to tell it how it is and I am a realist. We now worry about winter and a nuclear fallout. 

[uanmak]

1 hour ago, HolyCowCm said:

USA doctor quoted in article I read this morning. Even 70% doesn't stipulate a safe herd immunity, and as long as there is not the majority then the virus will always be ongoing mutating and posing a danger to everyone as the vaccines taken in the past will not be your safeguard for the future. So, unless the world on the greater biggest majority get vaccinated trying to reach an adequate herd immunity, then the world will always be running from the next one and then away from the next to the next and so on until scientists unlock the wonder solution. So, no end of the tunnel in sight, so we must learn and try to live with it. Winter is always going to be the time of biggest worry as it jumps and wallows in infecting.

Unfortunately it seems that 70% is not enough for Delta variant. Some speculates its R0 oscillates between 8 and 10, thus a calculated herd immunity should be as low as 87.5%.

[HolyCowCm]

2 minutes ago, uanmak said:

Unfortunately it seems that 70% is not enough for Delta variant. Some speculates its R0 oscillates between 8 and 10, thus a calculated herd immunity should be as low as 87.5%.

Ya, but we need to take into consideration that every country and place in the world needs to do it or it entirely defeats the purpose.

[billybob]

In the next 6 months vaccine production and the ability to produce effective boosters rapidly will be cranking out the stuff at pace so global supply constraints will no doubt not be an issue. Treatments both with repurposed drugs and new therapies will be much more effective at managing the disease if you get it.

So for wealthy countries I think we are in the end game now and over the next year most of the world will catch up. Of course desperately poor countries will still be desperately poor with all the resultant health and mortality issues that they are prone to. So sticking my neck out I think the UK where I live is on the way out (fingers crossed) - Thailand maybe by summer next year. High season will be a write off though. For the first time in years my wife and I are contemplating not going whereas last year we couldn't wait to flee the UK to what we considered was a safe Thailand even enduring 14 days ASQ to do it. 

[BigHewer]

6 hours ago, BlueSphinx said:

I largely agree with your post that we need to learn how to live with this virus instead of trying to combat it at all cost.  And the main issue on which we clearly have a different view are the covid-vaccines and isolation-measures (lockdowns, masks, asocial distancing, etc.) to deal with it. 

Absolutely spot on. Normalcy will return when we all learn to live with the virus rather than eliminate it. The question is, when will we “learn”? Most of us espousing these views are shouted down at the moment, but this will change. This is how I see things playing out:

1. Countries will vaccinate as many people as they can and hit a wall. Eventually, children will get the jab too. Finally, there’ll be very few people left to vaccinate who want it.  Perhaps the end of 2022 or early 2023?
2. The virus will continue to spread and  we reach some degree of herd immunity in conjunction with the vaccines.

3. Despite all this, infections continue. Damn it! 
4. Zero-COVID policies, for all their best efforts, continue to have breaches. (Early to mid 2023)

5. “Sandbox” schemes are introduced and have setbacks. (Now until early 2023).

6. Cases are much lower, but they’re still there. (Mid 2023)
7. There is a growing consensus that zero-COVID policies won’t work and we just have to get on with life. 

8. Get on with it (summer 2023)

So I’d say two more years until everyone is on board.

 

[JamesE]

9 hours ago, AussieBob said:

So what we have now are 3 very (apparently) well reasoned opinions - end 2021 @SickBuffalo, mid 2022 @AussieBob, and early 2024 @JamesE   I hope that sickbuffalo gets it right before aussiebob and jamese - I miss Thailand a lot. 

 

8 hours ago, HolyCowCm said:

So, no end of the tunnel in sight, so we must learn and try to live with it.

This is the thing. We all know how to be safe with this, vaccines or no vaccine. The question becomes how to integrate that knowledge into our day-to-day to minimize our risk, or lower it to a tolerable level. Me - in the US right now and pfully Pfizered - keep wearing a mask indoors in public places and outdoors in crowds. The last place I sat down and ate inside a restaurant was Bangkok in March. But I'll still go to an outdoor restaurant and not worry too much. Everybody has their own balance point.

That being said, @AussieBob, I wouldn't wait for the all-clear. There is never any time like the present.

[HolyCowCm]

 

22 minutes ago, JamesE said:

This is the thing. We all know how to be safe with this, vaccines or no vaccine. The question becomes how to integrate that knowledge into our day-to-day to minimize our risk, or lower it to a tolerable level. Me - in the US right now and pfully Pfizered - keep wearing a mask indoors in public places and outdoors in crowds. The last place I sat down and ate inside a restaurant was Bangkok in March. But I'll still go to an outdoor restaurant and not worry too much. Everybody has their own balance point.

That being said, @AussieBob, I wouldn't wait for the all-clear. There is never any time like the present.

Me and the family actually ate out tonight in CM and indoors. Soon as finished put masks back on and went grocery shopping and then had ice cream. But there is some caution used, but my feeling is even if eating outdoors you can’t guarantee you won’t get the new or next new mutant strain somehow. But your lucky as Pfizer is a great first start. 
Anyway for us. This was a hyper mall complex and it was really dead. Looks like people are running a little scared again for up in CM. But understandable as no one is protected up here for the most part. But yes we still need to be able to live 

[ChristyS]

14 hours ago, BlueSphinx said:

Why that derogatory note at the start?  Even though I belong in none of those 3 'loony' boxes, I will refrain from commenting because indeed it seems we are living in a 'different reality'.   

Because the cliques are being established whilst the same old cast jockey for mod jobs?  

 It'll never be over and there will be more and more while Planet Earth rids herself  of the pathogen humanity. Too bad most of the mammals will go with us. Hello, rise of the insects. I predict Praying Manta will rule in a million years- smart little devils and take in a lot of protein for brain  growth. 

 BTW  The " Spanish Flu " was good old swine flu-likely from a pig farm in... Kentucky I think it was,  and  we're due for another round of that, with some good ol Hanta  tossed in. Good times ahead, glad to not be any younger.   

Edited July 11, 2021 by ChristyS
Why not

[JamesE]

1 hour ago, ChristyS said:

Good times ahead, glad to not be any younger.   

This is what's really torquing my shorts. To be so close to seeing how this ends and miss it by a few hundred years. Timing. I was never very good at timing.

[TiT]

19 minutes ago, Tjampman said:

maybe 6 months from now

At the current rate of vaccination, it will take Thailand 6 years to provide vaccines for 70% of the population, and by that time there will be a whole alphabet of other variants that will likely render many of the vaccines ineffective.

The only option is to accept the fact that it will be with us for years to come and to move on with the world.

[TiT]

16 minutes ago, Tjampman said:

People keep saying this in all countries.

The vaccinations will accelerate, as availibilty increases, they are not being slow right now on purpose.

I tend to be optimistic, so include my 6 months in that bracket

The rate of inoculation is increasing, but the effectivity of the vaccines against variants is questionable.  Not all vaccines are created equal, that is the main problem.

[AussieBob]

8 hours ago, JamesE said:

This is the thing. We all know how to be safe with this, vaccines or no vaccine. The question becomes how to integrate that knowledge into our day-to-day to minimize our risk, or lower it to a tolerable level. Me - in the US right now and pfully Pfizered - keep wearing a mask indoors in public places and outdoors in crowds. The last place I sat down and ate inside a restaurant was Bangkok in March. But I'll still go to an outdoor restaurant and not worry too much. Everybody has their own balance point.

That being said, @AussieBob, I wouldn't wait for the all-clear. There is never any time like the present.

I hear you mate - fair enough too. Things appear to be going very much in the right direction in USA and UK right now.  What I hope is that it remains that way all through the next Northern winter period. Maybe it is just a coincidence that the SEAsia outbreaks all started as we moved towards our winter period, but that is what the Spanish Flu (H1N1) did for 3 years - every winter season brought another wave of infections - each one less fatal than the last but still highly contagious. Now it is just another subset of the Influenza A virus. Hopefully the vaccine slows it all down and we all become less 'infectible'. I have had the first dose of AZ, and get the second in August - we practice social distancing here and dont shake hands etc - but no masks.  Done mix with others much - we only have a few close friends - not a party goer or clubs/bars - occasional restaurant and shopping - and of course golf.  

[BlueSphinx]

5 hours ago, TiT said:

The rate of inoculation is increasing, but the effectivity of the vaccines against variants is questionable.  Not all vaccines are created equal, that is the main problem.

Mass-vaccination without taking into consideration risks/benefits for the individual vaccinee (age, health profile, exposure, etc.) is actually aggravating the problem.  The vaccine that was sold as a 'solution to the problem' never was.  Some scientists like Nobel prize winner prof dr Montagnier, and he is by far not the only one, are even claiming that it is mass-vaccination that is creating the variants.

[ChristyS]

12 hours ago, JamesE said:

This is what's really torquing my shorts. To be so close to seeing how this ends and miss it by a few hundred years. Timing. I was never very good at timing.

Be careful what you wish for- it could be decades not centuries. Maybe even less. 

I think something not being discussed at all is how ocean plankton which makes the bulk of oxygen is dying off-  which is another reason  I think insects will  rule - less  need for oxygen. Maybe the recent resurgence of the  space race has an urgency we are not being told about. Orbiting elysiums?   

Honestly I would not be surprised to see mass die offs of humanity to  begin -well  it has begun- from climate disruptions. Look at the heat  in N America and Siberia,  I'm thinking stay   near the equator for weather stability,  but with some altitude to ward off heat. An definitely get to a place where the govt can function in a crisis which is not Thailand.  

I'm soon to be 60, never had kids to worry about..  so    fingers crossed. 

[JamesE]

11 hours ago, BlueSphinx said:

are even claiming that it is mass-vaccination that is creating the variants.

The variants can't actually be created by the vaccines, the virus does that quite well enough on its own. However, having a large vaccinated population existing alongside a large or larger unvaccinated population is the textbook method for finding out which variants are able to spread within both populations. It's basically the same way that MRSA and VRSA bacteria developed but the variants tested themselves against antibiotics rather than vaccines.

[JamesE]

7 hours ago, ChristyS said:

Be careful what you wish for- it could be decades not centuries. Maybe even less. 

I think something not being discussed at all is how ocean plankton which makes the bulk of oxygen is dying off-  which is another reason  I think insects will  rule - less  need for oxygen. Maybe the recent resurgence of the  space race has an urgency we are not being told about. Orbiting elysiums?   

Honestly I would not be surprised to see mass die offs of humanity to  begin -well  it has begun- from climate disruptions. Look at the heat  in N America and Siberia,  I'm thinking stay   near the equator for weather stability,  but with some altitude to ward off heat. An definitely get to a place where the govt can function in a crisis which is not Thailand.  

I'm soon to be 60, never had kids to worry about..  so    fingers crossed. 

We do seem to be at the intersection of several large-scale crises right now. But they're easy to address. Everybody just needs to come together, accept responsibility, and work as one to fix the problems. This is something that has frequently happened in human history as often as... <checks notes>... never.

[Fester]

On 7/11/2021 at 9:59 AM, JamesE said:

(Note: If you are an anti-vaxxer, Big Pharma Conspirasist, or disavow mainstream scientific inquiry, no comment is necessary. We get your points but we're arguing from a different reality and, honestly, I just don't have the time.)

The COVID vaccine, like the flu vaccine, does nothing more than shift the statistics. It's like getting one of the Lotto balls in advance, every time you play. It moves the odds (to a greater or lesser extent) in your favor. Luckily, most of the COVID vaccines do much better than the flu vaccines and even the Chinese Dishwater shots do as well. But, they are not a cure. There are no guarantees that you won't get it, there are no guarantees that you won't pass it on. But it helps. Just like wearing a mask, avoiding idiots, and staying out of crowds.

This is not playing out in a vacuum. While we're getting better at immunizing, treating, and surviving, it's getting better at dodging our best efforts. Right now, the virus has a pool of people numbering 4+ billion to play in without worrying about any of that. From the crowded alleys of Khlong Toei to the HiSo morons in Thong Lor and Ekkamai the virus is trying out new mutations and seeing what works. The Delta variant is something like 3 times more transmissible than the original strain. It's starting to get into measles and chicken pox territory. Lambda is even more transmissible.

This is a three pronged problem. First, it becomes much easier to catch. Look at the US where half the population has been vaccinated. Cases are up 50% over the past two weeks. Deaths, lagging a couple of weeks behind cases, have started to rise again as well. Second, increased transmissibility, the dreaded R0 of epidemiologists, is something on the order of 8-9 with Delta. This means that the elusive "herd immunity" is now up around 90%, not the trivial 70% it was back at the beginning. But all the governments in the world are still shooting for 70%. Third, the virus is cranking out variants faster than Bayer spits out aspirin. Each one of those variants gets to test itself against the almost 3 billion vaccinated and nearly 200 million infected and recovered people. If one of those variants - one - succeeds in breaking through and getting back into the 4+ billion strong petri dish, everybody is going to need a new shot. Everybody.

When the vaccines first started rolling out in January the pandemic entered the beginning of the middle phase. Here in the US - where we have a long history of saying: "Look at how well that worked. Let's stop." - it's all Happy Days Are Here Again. The message is open up, be normal, it's safe to go back to the way things were. But we have a long history, also, of not looking beyond our borders.

So, to @AussieBob's question: We've got another 3 to 5 years of this. 2022 will see the middle part of the middle phase. That's the time where we realize that saying the emperor has clothes doesn't mean that they do. We can holiday in Spain or Greece because it's "open" and avoid Thailand because it's not. But that's because we're thinking like people in the Before Times. We should be thinking like statisticians and saying what behavior gives me the best chance of survival and allows me to have a life worth living. That is going to be a different calculus for each of us.

Going forward I see the end of the middle in 2023 and the final phase beginning soon after. The middle will end when we all realize that this is a global issue, that the politics and economics of pandemic profits is really what is killing people, and that a country or region that is struggling is not deserving of our scorn, but of our focus. If we can pull that off then the "it's just a cold or flu" crowd will be right. COVID will be something that we live with that will ruin millions of lives a year and kill hundreds of thousands. But we've got a long way to go to get to that happy state.

Sorry for the length. I got carried away.

That you did.

[Fester]

20 hours ago, TiT said:

At the current rate of vaccination, it will take Thailand 6 years to provide vaccines for 70% of the population, and by that time there will be a whole alphabet of other variants that will likely render many of the vaccines ineffective.

The only option is to accept the fact that it will be with us for years to come and to move on with the world.

If Thailand accepts that fact then any future movement will be slow, relative to much of the rest of the  world - it is already starting to happen.

[AdamX]

On 7/11/2021 at 10:06 AM, Shark said:

I'm putting this one on my profile.

This is good and prevents responses that are unwanted by the poster, but it does lead to echo chambers. ;-)

In any case, and in the interests of being balanced, may I propose a equivalent preamble for those of you on the "other" side.

(Note: If you are a maximalist pro-vaxxer, Big Pharma apologist, or consumer of  scientific reports without factoring in the source of funding, no comment is necessary. We get your points but we're arguing from a different reality and, honestly, I just don't have the time.)

No offense meant

[RuralSukhothai]

On 7/10/2021 at 8:54 PM, SickBuffalo said:

Thailand is now, finally, going through what many Western countries went through in 2020 and early '21.

We know how the pandemic played out in the West.

Those of us who know Thailand well know precisely why they are in the mess they are currently in, and all the factors in Thai society that have nothing to do with the virus but that have shaped their current ridiculous restrictions.

If we apply basic common sense, and filter out all the noise coming from those who have sadly been driven insane by conspiracy theories, we can figure out the events that are going to end the pandemic in Thailand too. We cannot put an exact date on when that will be, because we don't know when certain factors will fall into place, but I am optimistic that a lot of this stuff will happen more quickly than most of you think.

Let's not get lost in the minutiae. We are talking about the Thai population as a whole. Not every Thai needs to get vaccinated, and the vaccines don't need to be perfect. We just need to slow it enough to drive the R0 down. The virus will probably be with us forever, this is about getting Covid deaths down to a low enough figure that we can restart the world, something we need to do as a matter of extreme urgency. 

Europe

Despite the Delta variant presenting challenges to the younger parts of the European population who have not yet had the opportunity to get vaccinated, knowledgeable people are confident that anyone fully inoculated (both shots + two weeks) with one of the most effective vaccines - Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca - will be reasonably resistant to any variant that comes along. With sufficient exposure, yes, they can become infected but it is unlikely to develop enough to infect others. In most cases, these people will act as blockers, even if they get infected themselves.

Biontech and Moderna's mRNA technology is a miracle, and Pfizer's manufacturing and distribution have turned out to be a miracle too. Due to extraordinary bureaucratic incompetence, Europe was in deep trouble at the start of this year. Over the following six months, that situation was almost single-handedly reversed by Pfizer. They were the only supplier able to ramp up far beyond their original projections. Most Europeans in their 40s presumed they would be offered their first shot of AstraZeneca in October. Now, in July, they have almost all received their second shot of Pfizer.

The pandemic is not yet over in Europe but, as each country announces its new entry rules to coincide with the launch of the EU Digital Covid Certificate this month, we can see the pieces falling into place.

The new reality is that anyone who has either recovered from Covid or who is fully inoculated with the 3 effective vaccines will be traveling between European countries with no tests and no quarantines. It does not matter how you gained your immunity, by the end of this month you will be back to something approaching travel normality throughout Europe.

Those who are not yet immune will not be able to travel until they do get vaccinated or gain their immunity the hard way this summer.

Thailand

Just as a thought exercise, let's imagine if Pfizer were magically able to supply Thailand with 100m doses, spread over the next three months, and that the country made an all-out effort to provide them to every resident adult who wanted to be vaccinated. By the end of September, almost everyone would have robust immunity, either naturally acquired (Covid) or artificially acquired (fully vaccinated with Pfizer).

Even by August, they would be in a good position to join the rest of the world in opening up (no tests, no quarantine) to passengers fully inoculated with the 3 effective vaccines (which is going to be the standard throughout most of the world for at least the rest of this decade).

Now, obviously, Pfizer is not yet in a position to offer that to Thailand ... but ... I think they will be, and far sooner than expected. Last week we learned that big South Korean pharma manufacturers are in advanced talks with "a US mRNA vaccine company". Reading between the lines, that's Pfizer.

The South Koreans just happen to have massive existing plants already designed for modern vaccine production. The estimated starting capacity will be over a billion shots per year, and that can be rapidly expanded if necessary.

With the new Korean capacity in place, Pfizer is going to carpet bomb S.E. Asia, in the same way that they over delivered in Europe. What Thailand is going through right now is the darkest hour, but the landscape is going to shift dramatically over the next month or so.

Now, I still stand by my believe that Thailand could safely welcome properly vaccinated Westerners today without any tests or quarantines, but I appreciate that Thai public sentiment is currently hysterical. I agree that they will only accept re-opening if a serious vaccination programme, with no Chinese pretend vaccines, is at least already underway.

So, my prediction is that if Pfizer starts delivering those quantities by the first half of September, Thailand will fully open on the pre-Covid basis (no tests, no quarantines, no special insurance) to properly vaccinated tourists from the start of October.

I also predict that the current quarantine avenue into Thailand for the non-vaccinated will be discontinued quite soon. They may even cancel the Phuket sandbox if the public react badly to the rising death figures. When they do re-open to foreigners, it will be fully vaccinated only.

 

Well said. 

In the meanwhile, there's a lot of angst here at the moment. Something we weren't experiencing a year ago. Experiencing the ebbs and flows, as a good portion of the world has been, but not learning from others might be a terrible downfall. 

[ChristyS]

On 7/13/2021 at 4:16 PM, AdamX said:

This is good and prevents responses that are unwanted by the poster, but it does lead to echo chambers. ;-)

In any case, and in the interests of being balanced, may I propose a equivalent preamble for those of you on the "other" side.

(Note: If you are a maximalist pro-vaxxer, Big Pharma apologist, or consumer of  scientific reports without factoring in the source of funding, no comment is necessary. We get your points but we're arguing from a different reality and, honestly, I just don't have the time.)

No offense meant

No comment is necessary?  Good grief,  this is a public forum. You don't like someone's voice-  STFP No one is forcing  anyone to read, comment or react in any way. People choose to be offended or incensed or  uncomfortable in some way. Repeat;  They CHOOSE to feel that way. Then they choose  to complain and whine and bicker and otherwise be unintelligent  bores and add nothing of value to the discourse. 

SNORE !!    

[ChristyS]

On 7/12/2021 at 4:01 AM, TiT said:

At the current rate of vaccination, it will take Thailand 6 years to provide vaccines for 70% of the population, and by that time there will be a whole alphabet of other variants that will likely render many of the vaccines ineffective.

The only option is to accept the fact that it will be with us for years to come and to move on with the world.

Egads! That oft quoted 70% is  completely off the wall. Most pathogens require 85%  which is practically everyone. Of course NO ONE  knows re SARS-CoV-2 because it hasn't been researched- yet  but, how Thailand comes to a conclusion the 'herd immunity' percentage will be 15 points below the norm is more evidence of the utter incompetence at every level of this government.  

Edited July 21, 2021 by ChristyS
mistake

[ChristyS]

On 7/12/2021 at 10:04 PM, JamesE said:

We do seem to be at the intersection of several large-scale crises right now. But they're easy to address. Everybody just needs to come together, accept responsibility, and work as one to fix the problems. This is something that has frequently happened in human history as often as... <checks notes>... never.

It's too late. 40 some odd years ago in the late 70's  USA had a president with a long-term  plan and it might have worked, then he got voted out via a Iranian hostage situation, some say was highly manipulated to  reflect badly upon his leadership. Cowboy actor  Reagan got in and destroyed  any hope  because you know - capitalism.  

Reagan died a feeble old fart with Swiss cheese for a brain. Carter builds houses and just had his 75th wedding anniversary. 

Edited July 21, 2021 by ChristyS
sloppy typist

[palooka]

NEVER. it may well recede to minimal numbers in the western world but will still be prevalent  in third world countries who cannot afford vaccines etc. Look at Ebola, a really deadly virus, been here years and still no end in sight.

My advice, learn to live with masks, social distancing etc and be prepared to say goodbye to your old life and make the best of what we have now or can improve on.

 

[JamesE]

47 minutes ago, ChristyS said:

Egads! That oft quoted 70% is  completely off the wall. Most pathogens require 85%  which is practically everyone. Of course NO ONE  knows re SARS-CoV-2 because it hasn't been researched- yet  but, how Thailand comes to a conclusion the 'herd immunity' percentage will be 15 points below the norm is more evidence of the utter incompetence at every level of this government.  

The 70% figure was actually correct at the beginning of the pandemic with the first global (unnamed) variant that hopped into Italy and on to the US. It's R0 (R-naught) was 3 meaning that every infected person goes on to infect (on average) 3 others. The deceptively simple formula for herd immunity (H) is: H = 1 - 1/R0. So 1 - 1/3 = .67 and round it to 70% for simplicity. But Alpha was somewhere around 50% more transmissible so H went to around 78%. Then with Delta, which is a multiple (i.e. at least twice) more transmissible than Alpha gets us to H being a minimum of 89%. (I've seen numbers as high as 92% which is knocking on measles territory.)

But the message went out globally that 70% is the magic number and governments everywhere, not just Thailand, refuse to admit that they were wrong.