When will the Covid Pandemic finish

[AussieBob]

 

In My Opinion:

The first thing I want to state is that the Covid19 vaccines (all of them) do not stop you getting covid - they make infection less likely - but it is not a 'cure' like a Polio Vaccination.  Think the annual flu vaccination - and think about the fact that there is a 'new' flu vaccine every year for the mutations that have developed since the last flu season.  Whatever vaccine anyone gets now will not be fully effective for the Zeta or Eta mutations (current Delta mutation + 2 new mutations). Any vaccine will be useful and is far far better than no vaccine - but given the fast rates of mutations in Covid19 - think getting the flu vaccine in 2016 and no annual updates/boosters since then.

My advice to all thinking of returning to Thailand, is to stop thinking about Thailand - think about all of SEAsia.  Just about every country in SEAsia is currently experiencing massive increases in new cases and deaths - and it appears the Delta mutation (India) is the main issue.  But also think about the fact that it is Winter here down in the South, and there might very well be another mutation or two that will hit the Northern Hemisphere in their next Winter.  Until the current explosion in SEAsia I was optimistic that things would settle by end 2021 and in early 2022 we would be able to travel to Thailand. Now I am not so sure - I hope I am wrong - but it seems to me that there is more to come.  

The Spanish Flu was a brand new virus and it lasted 3.5 years and included 4 waves that swept the globe - they now know that each of those waves was due to a virulent mutation. There were lots of mutations, as there are with any virus, but not all of them 'succeed' in becoming virulent and spreading quickly.  Lockdowns masks etc will not stop a virulent virus - unless like Australia they lockdown the whole country - like Taiwan also did (and China).  But even then with total control, Taiwan had a recent outbreak and Australia now has one as well, and they are both now struggling to keep the lid down.  What lockdowns and masks do is they slow down the rate of infections - and ideally they keep the medical system from being totally overloaded - like what happened in India. What stops any virus (but never completely kills it) is herd immunity and that can only be obtained through natural recovery and through vaccinations.

If history repeats, and it sure looks that way, then without massive vaccinations (like they did not have with Spanish Flu) this new Covid19 worldwide pandemic virus would not be over for 3.5 years - and that is early/mid 2023.  But with vaccines being implemented on a scale never before seen in the world, and with infections spreading and new mutations occurring and spreading so quickly worldwide these days, then maybe it will be 'under control' by early/mid 2022. 

That is my target date for us being able to return to Thailand - March-July 2022.   I hope that things become much better in the whole world (not just in Thailand) before then - but that is my target date to travel and stay in Thailand. 

 

[KaptainRob]

That's a good synopsis Bob, and I reluctantly agree it's not looking like unrestricted travel will resume any time soon.

Thankfully we can at least have free high quality video chats with friends and family anywhere in the world.  I've already missed 2 trips downunder and my stocks of Kiwi and Aussie specialty products are running low.

Need a new Bunnings straw hat too.

[Shark]

Nice synopsis Bob, I full hardily agree and for the better all of the people should've stay Safe.

There was an article I can't seem to find anymore that stated last mutation + 2 years would be a general indicator. First let APAC get past the high numbers and this most likely will include mandatory vaccinations for those in the nation of Thailand but perhaps also outside the nation.

I don't have a glass boll so perhaps my predictions aren't useful at all but the recovery of Thailand will be far away.

[AussieBob]

58 minutes ago, KaptainRob said:

That's a good synopsis Bob, and I reluctantly agree it's not looking like unrestricted travel will resume any time soon.

Thankfully we can at least have free high quality video chats with friends and family anywhere in the world.  I've already missed 2 trips downunder and my stocks of Kiwi and Aussie specialty products are running low.

Need a new Bunnings straw hat too.

Sorry mate - cant help you - those Bunnings straw hats are not sold here locally - and the umbrellas are sold out.  Plus it is illegal to send you vegemite and things like that.  I guess the Makros in Chiang Mai have been swamped by the local Aussies buying it all up (like toilet paper down here). 

 

[JamesE]

(Note: If you are an anti-vaxxer, Big Pharma Conspirasist, or disavow mainstream scientific inquiry, no comment is necessary. We get your points but we're arguing from a different reality and, honestly, I just don't have the time.)

The COVID vaccine, like the flu vaccine, does nothing more than shift the statistics. It's like getting one of the Lotto balls in advance, every time you play. It moves the odds (to a greater or lesser extent) in your favor. Luckily, most of the COVID vaccines do much better than the flu vaccines and even the Chinese Dishwater shots do as well. But, they are not a cure. There are no guarantees that you won't get it, there are no guarantees that you won't pass it on. But it helps. Just like wearing a mask, avoiding idiots, and staying out of crowds.

This is not playing out in a vacuum. While we're getting better at immunizing, treating, and surviving, it's getting better at dodging our best efforts. Right now, the virus has a pool of people numbering 4+ billion to play in without worrying about any of that. From the crowded alleys of Khlong Toei to the HiSo morons in Thong Lor and Ekkamai the virus is trying out new mutations and seeing what works. The Delta variant is something like 3 times more transmissible than the original strain. It's starting to get into measles and chicken pox territory. Lambda is even more transmissible.

This is a three pronged problem. First, it becomes much easier to catch. Look at the US where half the population has been vaccinated. Cases are up 50% over the past two weeks. Deaths, lagging a couple of weeks behind cases, have started to rise again as well. Second, increased transmissibility, the dreaded R0 of epidemiologists, is something on the order of 8-9 with Delta. This means that the elusive "herd immunity" is now up around 90%, not the trivial 70% it was back at the beginning. But all the governments in the world are still shooting for 70%. Third, the virus is cranking out variants faster than Bayer spits out aspirin. Each one of those variants gets to test itself against the almost 3 billion vaccinated and nearly 200 million infected and recovered people. If one of those variants - one - succeeds in breaking through and getting back into the 4+ billion strong petri dish, everybody is going to need a new shot. Everybody.

When the vaccines first started rolling out in January the pandemic entered the beginning of the middle phase. Here in the US - where we have a long history of saying: "Look at how well that worked. Let's stop." - it's all Happy Days Are Here Again. The message is open up, be normal, it's safe to go back to the way things were. But we have a long history, also, of not looking beyond our borders.

So, to @AussieBob's question: We've got another 3 to 5 years of this. 2022 will see the middle part of the middle phase. That's the time where we realize that saying the emperor has clothes doesn't mean that they do. We can holiday in Spain or Greece because it's "open" and avoid Thailand because it's not. But that's because we're thinking like people in the Before Times. We should be thinking like statisticians and saying what behavior gives me the best chance of survival and allows me to have a life worth living. That is going to be a different calculus for each of us.

Going forward I see the end of the middle in 2023 and the final phase beginning soon after. The middle will end when we all realize that this is a global issue, that the politics and economics of pandemic profits is really what is killing people, and that a country or region that is struggling is not deserving of our scorn, but of our focus. If we can pull that off then the "it's just a cold or flu" crowd will be right. COVID will be something that we live with that will ruin millions of lives a year and kill hundreds of thousands. But we've got a long way to go to get to that happy state.

Sorry for the length. I got carried away.

[Shark]

6 minutes ago, JamesE said:

(Note: If you are an anti-vaxxer, Big Pharma Conspirasist, or disavow mainstream scientific inquiry, no comment is necessary. We get your points but we're arguing from a different reality and, honestly, I just don't have the time.)

I'm putting this one on my profile.

[JamesE]

Just now, Shark said:

I'm putting this one on my profile.

I wasn't quite sure how "conspirasist" is spelled... "Conspiracist"? Dunno.

[BlueSphinx]

8 minutes ago, JamesE said:

(Note: If you are an anti-vaxxer, Big Pharma Conspirasist, or disavow mainstream scientific inquiry, no comment is necessary. We get your points but we're arguing from a different reality and, honestly, I just don't have the time.)

...

Why that derogatory note at the start?  Even though I belong in none of those 3 'loony' boxes, I will refrain from commenting because indeed it seems we are living in a 'different reality'.   

[AussieBob]

17 minutes ago, JamesE said:

(Note: If you are an anti-vaxxer, Big Pharma Conspirasist, or disavow mainstream scientific inquiry, no comment is necessary. We get your points but we're arguing from a different reality and, honestly, I just don't have the time.)

The COVID vaccine, like the flu vaccine, does nothing more than shift the statistics. It's like getting one of the Lotto balls in advance, every time you play. It moves the odds (to a greater or lesser extent) in your favor. Luckily, most of the COVID vaccines do much better than the flu vaccines and even the Chinese Dishwater shots do as well. But, they are not a cure. There are no guarantees that you won't get it, there are no guarantees that you won't pass it on. But it helps. Just like wearing a mask, avoiding idiots, and staying out of crowds.

This is not playing out in a vacuum. While we're getting better at immunizing, treating, and surviving, it's getting better at dodging our best efforts. Right now, the virus has a pool of people numbering 4+ billion to play in without worrying about any of that. From the crowded alleys of Khlong Toei to the HiSo morons in Thong Lor and Ekkamai the virus is trying out new mutations and seeing what works. The Delta variant is something like 3 times more transmissible than the original strain. It's starting to get into measles and chicken pox territory. Lambda is even more transmissible.

This is a three pronged problem. First, it becomes much easier to catch. Look at the US where half the population has been vaccinated. Cases are up 50% over the past two weeks. Deaths, lagging a couple of weeks behind cases, have started to rise again as well. Second, increased transmissibility, the dreaded R0 of epidemiologists, is something on the order of 8-9 with Delta. This means that the elusive "herd immunity" is now up around 90%, not the trivial 70% it was back at the beginning. But all the governments in the world are still shooting for 70%. Third, the virus is cranking out variants faster than Bayer spits out aspirin. Each one of those variants gets to test itself against the almost 3 billion vaccinated and nearly 200 million infected and recovered people. If one of those variants - one - succeeds in breaking through and getting back into the 4+ billion strong petri dish, everybody is going to need a new shot. Everybody.

When the vaccines first started rolling out in January the pandemic entered the beginning of the middle phase. Here in the US - where we have a long history of saying: "Look at how well that worked. Let's stop." - it's all Happy Days Are Here Again. The message is open up, be normal, it's safe to go back to the way things were. But we have a long history, also, of not looking beyond our borders.

So, to @AussieBob's question: We've got another 3 to 5 years of this. 2022 will see the middle part of the middle phase. That's the time where we realize that saying the emperor has clothes doesn't mean that they do. We can holiday in Spain or Greece because it's "open" and avoid Thailand because it's not. But that's because we're thinking like people in the Before Times. We should be thinking like statisticians and saying what behavior gives me the best chance of survival and allows me to have a life worth living. That is going to be a different calculus for each of us.

Going forward I see the end of the middle in 2023 and the final phase beginning soon after. The middle will end when we all realize that this is a global issue, that the politics and economics of pandemic profits is really what is killing people, and that a country or region that is struggling is not deserving of our scorn, but of our focus. If we can pull that off then the "it's just a cold or flu" crowd will be right. COVID will be something that we live with that will ruin millions of lives a year and kill hundreds of thousands. But we've got a long way to go to get to that happy state.

Sorry for the length. I got carried away.

Well said mate - an excellent summary of the true situation and the human mental weaknesses involved. We all want this to be over, but just because we are rolling out vaccines does not mean that it is over. It amazes me that some people think that the vaccine is a cure and that once they get it they will never catch Covid - but that is how we are - pre-programmed to see and hear what agrees with what we think.

I hope that by mid 2023 the pandemic will be manageable - it will never be over.  But you could easily be correct, and it will take until 2024/5 to be manageable.

As you correctly stated, the C19 like all viruses is a 'living thing' - even though it technically is not alive. Viruses will mutate and change constantly in order to survive in any new host species - they have been around for billions of years and they are extremely well adapted to doing that. The best chance for a virus to survive in any new species, and what their 'end game' always was, is to become 'accepted' within the new hosts and live indefinitely - as long as that host species does - as the coronavirus does in bats.   

We humans have viruses and other organisms within us all right now that live in a symbiotic state - they do not do us any harm (some are actually needed) and we do not try and destroy them. What viruses naturally do in any new species is to mutate into more and more virulent versions, that are less and less 'toxic' to the host species - that dont survive by killing off the species.  That is why viruses like Ebola dont last long - they cannot mutate into a less toxic and more contagious version because they immediately make the hosts far too sick for any such mutations to take place.  Most new viruses that 'evolve' and cross species do not survive. But many never go away - they go dormant - like Ebola and H1N1 and many others.

Hopefully things work out with vaccinations and natural mutations that result in Covid19 quickly becoming like H1N1 (Swine Flu) and all the others that previously caused a 'flu pandemic' - they are now a part of the ongoing ever-evolving annual 'flu' infections, and they are a part of the annual flu vaccine development programs.  Will that take until 2023 or until 2025 - only time will tell - but I can tell you that C19 will become like H1N1 - it is never going away. 

[BlueSphinx]

3 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

Well said mate - an excellent summary of the true situation and the human mental weaknesses involved. We all want this to be over, but just because we are rolling out vaccines does not mean that it is over. It amazes me that some people think that the vaccine is a cure and that once they get it they will never catch Covid - but that is how we are - pre-programmed to see and hear what agrees with what we think.

I hope that by mid 2023 the pandemic will be manageable - it will never be over.  But you could easily be correct, and it will take until 2024/5 to be manageable.

As you correctly stated, the C19 like all viruses is a 'living thing' - even though it technically is not alive. Viruses will mutate and change constantly in order to survive in any new host species - they have been around for billions of years and they are extremely well adapted to doing that. The best chance for a virus to survive in any new species, and what their 'end game' always was, is to become 'accepted' within the new hosts and live indefinitely - as long as that host species does - as the coronavirus does in bats.   

We humans have viruses and other organisms within us all right now that live in a symbiotic state - they do not do us any harm (some are actually needed) and we do not try and destroy them. What viruses naturally do in any new species is to mutate into more and more virulent versions, that are less and less 'toxic' to the host species - that dont survive by killing off the species.  That is why viruses like Ebola dont last long - they cannot mutate into a less toxic and more contagious version because they immediately make the hosts far too sick for any such mutations to take place.  Most new viruses that 'evolve' and cross species do not survive. But many never go away - they go dormant - like Ebola and H1N1 and many others.

Hopefully things work out with vaccinations and natural mutations that result in Covid19 quickly becoming like H1N1 (Swine Flu) and all the others that previously caused a 'flu pandemic' - they are now a part of the ongoing ever-evolving annual 'flu' infections, and they are a part of the annual flu vaccine development programs.  Will that take until 2023 or until 2025 - only time will tell - but I can tell you that C19 will become like H1N1 - it is never going away. 

I largely agree with your post that we need to learn how to live with this virus instead of trying to combat it at all cost.  And the main issue on which we clearly have a different view are the covid-vaccines and isolation-measures (lockdowns, masks, asocial distancing, etc.) to deal with it. 

[SickBuffalo]

Quote

The future is already here ... it's just not evenly distributed - William Gibson

Thailand is now, finally, going through what many Western countries went through in 2020 and early '21.

We know how the pandemic played out in the West.

Those of us who know Thailand well know precisely why they are in the mess they are currently in, and all the factors in Thai society that have nothing to do with the virus but that have shaped their current ridiculous restrictions.

If we apply basic common sense, and filter out all the noise coming from those who have sadly been driven insane by conspiracy theories, we can figure out the events that are going to end the pandemic in Thailand too. We cannot put an exact date on when that will be, because we don't know when certain factors will fall into place, but I am optimistic that a lot of this stuff will happen more quickly than most of you think.

2 hours ago, AussieBob said:

The first thing I want to state is that the Covid19 vaccines (all of them) do not stop you getting covid - they make infection less likely - but it is not a 'cure' like a Polio Vaccination.  Think the annual flu vaccination - and think about the fact that there is a 'new' flu vaccine every year for the mutations that have developed since the last flu season.

Let's not get lost in the minutiae. We are talking about the Thai population as a whole. Not every Thai needs to get vaccinated, and the vaccines don't need to be perfect. We just need to slow it enough to drive the R0 down. The virus will probably be with us forever, this is about getting Covid deaths down to a low enough figure that we can restart the world, something we need to do as a matter of extreme urgency. 

Europe

Despite the Delta variant presenting challenges to the younger parts of the European population who have not yet had the opportunity to get vaccinated, knowledgeable people are confident that anyone fully inoculated (both shots + two weeks) with one of the most effective vaccines - Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca - will be reasonably resistant to any variant that comes along. With sufficient exposure, yes, they can become infected but it is unlikely to develop enough to infect others. In most cases, these people will act as blockers, even if they get infected themselves.

Biontech and Moderna's mRNA technology is a miracle, and Pfizer's manufacturing and distribution have turned out to be a miracle too. Due to extraordinary bureaucratic incompetence, Europe was in deep trouble at the start of this year. Over the following six months, that situation was almost single-handedly reversed by Pfizer. They were the only supplier able to ramp up far beyond their original projections. Most Europeans in their 40s presumed they would be offered their first shot of AstraZeneca in October. Now, in July, they have almost all received their second shot of Pfizer.

The pandemic is not yet over in Europe but, as each country announces its new entry rules to coincide with the launch of the EU Digital Covid Certificate this month, we can see the pieces falling into place.

The new reality is that anyone who has either recovered from Covid or who is fully inoculated with the 3 effective vaccines will be traveling between European countries with no tests and no quarantines. It does not matter how you gained your immunity, by the end of this month you will be back to something approaching travel normality throughout Europe.

Those who are not yet immune will not be able to travel until they do get vaccinated or gain their immunity the hard way this summer.

Thailand

Just as a thought exercise, let's imagine if Pfizer were magically able to supply Thailand with 100m doses, spread over the next three months, and that the country made an all-out effort to provide them to every resident adult who wanted to be vaccinated. By the end of September, almost everyone would have robust immunity, either naturally acquired (Covid) or artificially acquired (fully vaccinated with Pfizer).

Even by August, they would be in a good position to join the rest of the world in opening up (no tests, no quarantine) to passengers fully inoculated with the 3 effective vaccines (which is going to be the standard throughout most of the world for at least the rest of this decade).

Now, obviously, Pfizer is not yet in a position to offer that to Thailand ... but ... I think they will be, and far sooner than expected. Last week we learned that big South Korean pharma manufacturers are in advanced talks with "a US mRNA vaccine company". Reading between the lines, that's Pfizer.

The South Koreans just happen to have massive existing plants already designed for modern vaccine production. The estimated starting capacity will be over a billion shots per year, and that can be rapidly expanded if necessary.

With the new Korean capacity in place, Pfizer is going to carpet bomb S.E. Asia, in the same way that they over delivered in Europe. What Thailand is going through right now is the darkest hour, but the landscape is going to shift dramatically over the next month or so.

Now, I still stand by my believe that Thailand could safely welcome properly vaccinated Westerners today without any tests or quarantines, but I appreciate that Thai public sentiment is currently hysterical. I agree that they will only accept re-opening if a serious vaccination programme, with no Chinese pretend vaccines, is at least already underway.

So, my prediction is that if Pfizer starts delivering those quantities by the first half of September, Thailand will fully open on the pre-Covid basis (no tests, no quarantines, no special insurance) to properly vaccinated tourists from the start of October.

I also predict that the current quarantine avenue into Thailand for the non-vaccinated will be discontinued quite soon. They may even cancel the Phuket sandbox if the public react badly to the rising death figures. When they do re-open to foreigners, it will be fully vaccinated only.

 

Edited July 11, 2021 by SickBuffalo

[SickBuffalo]

1 hour ago, JamesE said:

(Note: If you are an anti-vaxxer, Big Pharma Conspirasist, or disavow mainstream scientific inquiry, no comment is necessary. We get your points but we're arguing from a different reality and, honestly, I just don't have the time.)

Wow, I want to make this my footer!

Please, everyone, apply that same request to my post above. There is simply no point getting into a discussion if we cannot agree on even the basics.

 

[AussieBob]

1 hour ago, JamesE said:

I wasn't quite sure how "conspirasist" is spelled... "Conspiracist"? Dunno.

It is spelt   ..... N....U....T.... T.... E.... R  

However, there are some anti-vaxxers who raise genuine concerns and issues that need to be addressed or at least considered.  But some, as spelt above, are completely over the top and are absolutely convinced that the world has been subjected to some sort of 'mind control' - but that they are somehow immune.  Classic examples are those that built underground bunkers due to Y2K, and those that believe the earth is flat, etc.

In my opinion, if someone decides that they will not take a vaccine then that is there decision and I will accept that - whatever their reasons. However, what they need to understand and accept is that if the rest of us decide not to share social space with them, and they are banned from planes, movies, malls, restaurants, etc. then they have to accept our decision too.  What I cannot accept is that someone decides not to have the vaccine and then demands that they have the right to potentially expose me (and others) to what we all decided to take the vaccine to prevent.  Sure, they can come and play golf and walk in the same park - but they cannot sit next to me for hours at a movie or at a football match.  

[AussieBob]

38 minutes ago, BlueSphinx said:

I largely agree with your post that we need to learn how to live with this virus instead of trying to combat it at all cost.  And the main issue on which we clearly have a different view are the covid-vaccines and isolation-measures (lockdowns, masks, asocial distancing, etc.) to deal with it. 

All good - I do understand and accept we have a different view on that matter and that is AOK. Eventually we will need to manage the virus - whichever way it all goes forward. 

[SnapDragon]

2 hours ago, AussieBob said:

The Spanish Flu was a brand new virus and it lasted 3.5 years and included 4 waves that swept the globe - they now know that each of those waves was due to a virulent mutation. There were lots of mutations, as there are with any virus, but not all of them 'succeed' in becoming virulent and spreading quickly. 

This is simply not the case. The 1918 Spanish Flu was primarily the result of the first word war. And definitely not a flu. I could break down the reasons for the disease(s), but it's a topic that deserves its own thread. Books have been written on this, and a few words do not do the subject justice.

"There were lots of mutations, as there are with any virus,,," Now, are you talking within the body, or outside? You have to sort out the fact from fiction here. A virus within the body is carrying out specific functions. And that is NOT to harm the body it is in. Viruses outside the body are everywhere. Trillions of them. They are dead, 'short-lived' (like an idea) and cannot cause harm. This really comes down to basics. What is a virus?

1 hour ago, JamesE said:

But it helps. Just like wearing a mask, avoiding idiots, and staying out of crowds.

",,,,avoiding idiots,,,." I wonder who these idiots are? Could it be those that have researched the C-19? Could it be those that know the total manipulation of the agenda (again a subject that needs its own thread)? Could it be those not wearing masks? Or could it be those that think differently to yourself?

Good thought provoking topic though. For me the 'pandemic' will end when people are awakened, and the 'string pullers' are exposed. It's already happening; could be sooner rather than later. In 2022 probably.

[AussieBob]

54 minutes ago, SickBuffalo said:

Thailand is going through what many Western countries went through in 2020.

We know how the pandemic played out in the West.

Those of us who know Thailand well know precisely why there are in the mess they are currently in, and all the factors in Thai society that have nothing to do with the virus but that have shaped their current ridiculous restrictions.

If we apply basic common sense, and filter out all the noise coming from those who have sadly been driven insane by conspiracy theories, we can figure out the events that are going to end the pandemic in Thailand too. We cannot put an exact date on when that will be, because we don't know when certain factors will fall into place, but I am optimistic that a lot of this stuff will happen more quickly than most of you think.

Let's not get lost in the minutiae. We are talking about the Thai population as a whole. Not every Thai needs to get vaccinated, and the vaccines don't need to be perfect. We just need to slow it enough to drive the R0 down.

Europe

Despite the Delta variant presenting challenges to the younger parts of the European population who have not yet had the opportunity to get vaccinated, knowledgeable people are confident that anyone fully inoculated (both shots + two weeks) with one of the most effective vaccines - Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca - will be reasonably resistant to any variant that comes along. With sufficient exposure, they can become infected but it is unlikely to develop enough to infect others. In most cases, these people will act as blockers, even if they get infected themselves.

Biontech and Moderna's mRNA technology is a miracle, and Pfizer's manufacturing and distribution have turned out to be a miracle too. Due to extraordinary bureaucratic incompetence, Europe was in deep trouble at the start of this year. Over the following six months, that situation was almost single-handedly reversed by Pfizer. They were the only supplier able to ramp up far beyond their original projections. Most Europeans in their 40s presumed they would be offered their first shot of AstraZeneca in October. Now, in July, they have almost all received their second shot of Pfizer.

The pandemic is not yet over in Europe but, as each country announces its new entry rules this month, we can see the pieces falling into place. The new reality is that anyone who has either recovered from Covid or who is fully inoculated with the 3 effective vaccines will be traveling between European countries with no tests and no quarantines. It does not matter how you gained your immunity, by the end of this month you will be back to something approaching travel normality throughout Europe.

Those who are not yet immune will not be able to travel until they do get vaccinated or gain their immunity the hard way this summer.

Thailand

Just as a thought exercise, let's imagine if Pfizer were magically able to supply Thailand with 100m doses, spread over the next three months, and that the country made an all-out effort to provide them to every resident adult who wanted to be vaccinated. By the end of September, almost everyone would have robust immunity, either naturally acquired (Covid) or artificially acquired (fully vaccinated with Pfizer).

Even by August, they would be in a good position to join the rest of the world in opening up (no tests, no quarantine) to passengers fully inoculated with the 3 effective vaccines (which is going to be the standard throughout most of the world for at least the rest of this decade).

Now, obviously, Pfizer is not yet in a position to offer that to Thailand ... but ... I think they will be, and far sooner than expected. Last week we learned that big South Korean pharma manufacturers are in advanced talks with "a US mRNA vaccine company". Reading between the lines, that's Pfizer.

The South Koreans just happen to have massive existing plants already designed for modern vaccine production. The estimated starting capacity will be over a billion shots per year, and that can be rapidly expanded if necessary.

With the new Korean capacity in place, Pfizer is going to carpet bomb S.E. Asia, in the same way that they over delivered in Europe. What Thailand is going through right now is the darkest hour, but the landscape is going to shift dramatically over the next month or so.

Now, I still stand by my believe that Thailand could safely welcome properly vaccinated Westerners today without any tests or quarantines, but I appreciate that Thai public sentiment is currently hysterical. I agree that they will only accept re-opening if a serious vaccination programme, with no Chinese pretend vaccines, is at least already underway.

So, my prediction is that if Pfizer starts delivering those quantities by the first half of September, Thailand will fully open on the pre-Covid basis (no tests, no quarantines, no special insurance) to properly vaccinated tourists from the start of October.

I also predict that the current quarantine avenue into Thailand for the non-vaccinated will be discontinued quite soon. They may even cancel the Phuket sandbox if the public react badly to the rising death figures. When they do re-open to foreigners, it will be fully vaccinated only.
 

Very comprehensive summary - optimistic but clearly based on real world scenarios and definitely that is what could happen.  I sure hope you are right - the wife and I want to visit ASAP.

So what we have now are 3 very (apparently) well reasoned opinions - end 2021 @SickBuffalo, mid 2022 @AussieBob, and early 2024 @JamesE   I hope that sickbuffalo gets it right before aussiebob and jamese - I miss Thailand a lot. 

 

[uanmak]

Everything is totally condivisible, but regarding the initial passage here:

 

2 hours ago, AussieBob said:

The first thing I want to state is that the Covid19 vaccines (all of them) do not stop you getting covid - they make infection less likely - but it is not a 'cure' like a Polio Vaccination.  Think the annual flu vaccination - and think about the fact that there is a 'new' flu vaccine every year for the mutations that have developed since the last flu season. 

there are a couple remarks to provide:

1) On general terms, vaccines aint't no cure (exception below), but prevention tools helping to get mild to no symptoms once the infection comes. A cure is something you get after the disease starts, a vaccine is something you get before the infection comes to you.
Exception: therapeuthic vaccines are studied against existing conditions, for example in: chronic viral infections; cases of tetanus if somebody does not recall whether was vaccinated on time (alongside immunoglobulins); fighting cancers, being these comparable to chronic conditions. Additionally, in principles vaccines do not prevent transmission, they just make it less probable to occur; this is just a part of the wide and more complicate reasoning behind herd immunity and models of transmission, but it is valid for both covid and every other respiratory and non-respiratory disease.

2) Just to be clearer, if it was not already so from the quoted part: flu variants are not generated yearly from vaccination, otherwise a vaccine would not even be made (note on this: I hope somebody would not show his/her ignorance by citing VDPV). Viruses are prone to mutation regardless of our intervention; coronaviridae are extremely susceptible given their RNA nature, big genome size, and lack of proofreading by RNA polymerases. The existence of hundreds of viruses responsible for commond colds and flu-like illnesses makes you easily understand the huge variability that we are facing every time an outbreak occurs.
To be specific for flu, the seasonal vaccine is updated with the relevant variant(s) which are expected to circulate in that season, as it would be impossible to include all kind of viruses otherwise; for example, the most recent Vaxigrip Tetra contains the following 4 strains: A/Victoria/2570/2019, A/Hong Kong/2671/2019, B/Washington/02/2019, B/Phuket/3073/2013.

 

[AussieBob]

28 minutes ago, snapdragon said:

This is simply not the case. The 1918 Spanish Flu was primarily the result of the first word war. And definitely not a flu. I could break down the reasons for the disease(s), but it's a topic that deserves its own thread. Books have been written on this, and a few words do not do the subject justice.

"There were lots of mutations, as there are with any virus,,," Now, are you talking within the body, or outside? You have to sort out the fact from fiction here. A virus within the body is carrying out specific functions. And that is NOT to harm the body it is in. Viruses outside the body are everywhere. Trillions of them. They are dead, 'short-lived' (like an idea) and cannot cause harm. This really comes down to basics. What is a virus?

",,,,avoiding idiots,,,." I wonder who these idiots are? Could it be those that have researched the C-19? Could it be those that know the total manipulation of the agenda (again a subject that needs its own thread)? Could it be those not wearing masks? Or could it be those that think differently to yourself?

Good thought provoking topic though. For me the 'pandemic' will end when people are awakened, and the 'string pullers' are exposed. It's already happening; could be sooner rather than later. In 2022 probably.

This is a report written by qualified and respected Epidemiologists:  The Story of Influenza - The Threat of Pandemic Influenza - NCBI Bookshelf (nih.gov)

This is written by qualified and respected Virologists:  Sequence of the 1918 pandemic influenza virus nonstructural gene (NS) segment and characterization of recombinant viruses bearing the 1918 NS genes - PubMed (nih.gov)

I have read through both those studies, and multiple others over the last 2 years, and overall I agree with the essence of what they are saying. 

Covid19 is a very bad flu and is a pandemic that has a Case Fatality Rate of about 2.2% - it is not Ebola (40% CFR) and it is not SARS (about 12%) or MERS (about 20%) - but it has a high mortality rate for those over 70 and those with underlying medical issues - that is fact.  I have some doubt about the total deaths and the numbers are probably 5-10% high - but they are upwards of 3 million.  I am also certain that every year the Flu has a CFR over 0.05% - because not everyone who dies is tested.  But I also have no doubt that the annual flu does not have a CFR of 14% for anyone over 70. 

Whilst I do not agree with your anti-vax decision, I agree that you have the right to make that choice, the same as for the annual flu vaccine.  But please do not lecture me or others that we are all wrong and delusional.  I too am sceptical about the modern practice of total obedience to 'science' - in my experience most people, especially the media, take whatever 'science' fits their narrative and excludes all contrary studies or evidence.  But I have taken a while to come to the conclusion that C19 is a valid pandemic, and although all Governments have screwed most things up, the basis for their actions is valid. 

The only way forward from here, and like it or not we are here and we aint going back, is to gain herd immunity through natural processes (getting the virus and living) and through vaccines.  You have chosen the natural path, and that is OK, but I have chosen the vaccine path.  Lets agree to disagree, but lets also accept each others decision on that, and not lecture the other that they are wrong or do not have the right to make their decision. 

[SnapDragon]

44 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

It is spelt   ..... N....U....T.... T.... E.... R  

However, there are some anti-vaxxers who raise genuine concerns and issues that need to be addressed or at least considered.  But some, as spelt above, are completely over the top and are absolutely convinced that the world has been subjected to some sort of 'mind control' - but that they are somehow immune.  Classic examples are those that built underground bunkers due to Y2K, and those that believe the earth is flat, etc.

So you have spelt it out Bob; "N....U....T.... T.... E.... R."

I'm not a 'novaxxer' a 'maybe vaxxer' or a 'well maybe if it will let me go to a footy match vaxxer.

Most proud to be anti-vaccine. Any of them! There is not just a handful of us either. There are billions of us and we can see through the b/s, lies, manipulation and coercion.

But I am - as are many also - a 'pro-choicer'.

If you, and your loved ones, decide to take the jab Bob; I hope all turns out OK for you all. I've no wish to harm anyone - (perhaps just a couple), - but I do feel I have a duty to try to ensure that you do some serious research before having any jab.

Nutter, Snapdragon, signing off.

[SnapDragon]

11 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

But please do not lecture me or others that we are all wrong and delusional.

Nutter Snapdragon reporting.

I have also read many papers (newspaper reports of that time also) and I cannot, in all honesty say that there was ever such a thing as 'Spanish Flu'.

My research tells me otherwise. It was many diseases, illnesses and sicknesses that were brought on by the WW1. Perhaps a new topic 'The 1918 Spanish Flu' might allow me to give a comprehensive overview.

[AussieBob]

8 minutes ago, snapdragon said:

So you have spelt it out Bob; "N....U....T.... T.... E.... R."

I'm not a 'novaxxer' a 'maybe vaxxer' or a 'well maybe if it will let me go to a footy match vaxxer.

Most proud to be anti-vaccine. Any of them! There is not just a handful of us either. There are billions of us and we can see through the b/s, lies, manipulation and coercion.

But I am - as are many also - a 'pro-choicer'.

If you, and your loved ones, decide to take the jab Bob; I hope all turns out OK for you all. I've no wish to harm anyone - (perhaps just a couple), - but I do feel I have a duty to try to ensure that you do some serious research before having any jab.

Nutter, Snapdragon, signing off.

Fair enough too. But I would certainly not put you in that category (nutter).  The nutters are the ones that believe the earth is flat - contrary to all available evidence - and that it is some sort of a conspiracy that is forcing everyone to believe the earth is round.  And that there are aliens locked up in Area 51 and it is a conspiracy to keep it a secret. And of course the nutters believe the moon landings were all faked and done in a TV studio.   

Being sceptical against vaccines overall is not being a nutter. Choosing not to take the Covid vaccines is a valid decision - the science is solid for the annual flu vaccines - but it is called 'experimental' for the Covid vaccines because they are experimental.  I have looked at the information and the industry and the results (especially the mRNA results) and my decision is to take the vaccine - I can see far more upsides than downsides - and I have decided to become involved in what are essentially the last stage of clinical trials.  So far so good.    And if the Pfizer mRNA clinical outcomes continue to be so positive, and people dont grow an extra head (although that could be useful) then 3-6 months or so after my last AZ shot I will be seeking the Pfizer vaccine (or Moderna) as a 'booster'. 

 

[AussieBob]

5 minutes ago, snapdragon said:

Nutter Snapdragon reporting.

I have also read many papers (newspaper reports of that time also) and I cannot, in all honesty say that there was ever such a thing as 'Spanish Flu'.

My research tells me otherwise. It was many diseases, illnesses and sicknesses that were brought on by the WW1. Perhaps a new topic 'The 1918 Spanish Flu' might allow me to give a comprehensive overview.

Let me know when you have started that thread - happy to join the conversation.

[HolyCowCm]

USA doctor quoted in article I read this morning. Even 70% doesn't stipulate a safe herd immunity, and as long as there is not the majority then the virus will always be ongoing mutating and posing a danger to everyone as the vaccines taken in the past will not be your safeguard for the future. So, unless the world on the greater biggest majority get vaccinated trying to reach an adequate herd immunity, then the world will always be running from the next one and then away from the next to the next and so on until scientists unlock the wonder solution. So, no end of the tunnel in sight, so we must learn and try to live with it. Winter is always going to be the time of biggest worry as it jumps and wallows in infecting.

Edited July 11, 2021 by HolyCowCm

[Shark]

2 hours ago, SickBuffalo said:

Wow, I want to make this my footer!

I wanted the same thing, but this forum has been stripped of Signatures. So I ended up putting it in my profile.

[AussieBob]

52 minutes ago, HolyCowCm said:

USA doctor quoted in article I read this morning. Even 70% doesn't stipulate a safe herd immunity, and as long as there is not the majority then the virus will always be ongoing mutating and posing a danger to everyone as the vaccines taken in the past will not be your safeguard for the future. So, unless the world on the greater biggest majority get vaccinated trying to reach an adequate herd immunity, then the world will always be running from the next one and then away from the next to the next and so on until scientists unlock the wonder solution. So, no end of the tunnel in sight, so we must learn and try to live with it. Winter is always going to be the time of biggest worry as it jumps and wallows in infecting.

And in USA UK and Europe ..................... 'winter is coming'.

Sorry - could not resist that.