Phuket “Sandbox” traveller infected with Covid-19, tour group now in quarantine

[Stonker]

On 7/7/2021 at 11:22 PM, SickBuffalo said:

At this stage, bringing in a few million vaccinated tourists will do nothing to further harm their chances, but it will help their families.

The only way to bring in a few million vaccinated tourists is to give them what tourists want: bars, restaurants, concerts, nightlife, no masks, no restrictions.

 

Thailand doesn't have enough people vaccinated to do that.

[Stonker]

11 hours ago, JohninDubin said:

If you read the reports, you will see that it wasn't the other passengers on the plane who were quarantined, but the other passengers in the group that he travelled with.

Sorry , which reports?

 

I haven't seen any that say other passengers werent quarantined, just some referring to the tour group and some referring to the flight.

 

You may well be right, but where was this reported?

[JohninDublin]

3 hours ago, gummy said:

So you have no supporting evidence for your statements then. All readers please take note

I hope you are in the UK. This is one of the docs I've relied upon.  https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000x2tf/ad/horizon-2021-1-horizon-special-the-vaccine

If you can devote an hour of your time and watch it, you might learn something. If you can't access it, lets try some arithmetic: Under your scenario the virus hat to replicate it self every 17 seconds to infect one person so that they can pass it on to someone else. If no replication takes place then the first person in chain, immediately expels it by breathing out under you model so that someone else is now at risk. The virus has an estimated size of one eight to one third of a micron. That's 3k to 8k pieces to 1mm. Multiply that by 1000 and the virus is one metre in size. 

Thus in 13 replications if you base it on the more favourable to you, one-eighth micron, the virus will now be one mm in size. At 17 seconds, that takes 3 minutes and 41 seconds. Another 10 replications (2 mins and 50 sec later), and the virus is now one meter in length. 

Of course, rather than trying to trash my post, it would be more helpful to the debate, if you can produce a  source showing that the virus replicates every 17 seconds. Shall I wait?

[gummy]

5 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

I hope you are in the UK. This is one of the docs I've relied upon.  https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000x2tf/ad/horizon-2021-1-horizon-special-the-vaccine

If you can devote an hour of your time and watch it, you might learn something. If you can't access it, lets try some arithmetic: Under your scenario the virus hat to replicate it self every 17 seconds to infect one person so that they can pass it on to someone else. If no replication takes place then the first person in chain, immediately expels it by breathing out under you model so that someone else is now at risk. The virus has an estimated size of one eight to one third of a micron. That's 3k to 8k pieces to 1mm. Multiply that by 1000 and the virus is one metre in size. 

Thus in 13 replications if you base it on the more favourable to you, one-eighth micron, the virus will now be one mm in size. At 17 seconds, that takes 3 minutes and 41 seconds. Another 10 replications (2 mins and 50 sec later), and the virus is now one meter in length. 

Of course, rather than trying to trash my post, it would be more helpful to the debate, if you can produce a  source showing that the virus replicates every 17 seconds. Shall I wait?

Perhaps reading could be a secondary hobby for you? where did I see it took 17 seconds to replicate itself ?

[MrStretch]

On 7/7/2021 at 12:54 PM, Tornado said:

The core question of this story is what vaccine did this traveler receive in Abu Dhabi? 

If I recall correctly the Emirates depended heavily on Sinopharm and Pfizer. 

[JohninDublin]

1 hour ago, Stonker said:

 On what planet???

https://hselibrary.ie/what-is-the-false-negative-rate-for-swab-tests-for-covid-19-and-are-there-more-reliable-ways-of-testing-are-rectal-swab-tests-effective-in-detecting-covid-19-for-patients-presenting-with-gastrointes-2/

Extract: "It is unclear the exact percentage of tests that produce false negatives but evidence from China proposes a rate as high as 30%^14, 26, 27. A systematic review of the accuracy of COVID-19 tests reported false negative rates of between 2% and 29%¹⁴."

If I recall correctly, my figure was based on a radio report which reported this and they then substituted 15% as being the average between the upper and lower figures.

 

 

[JohninDublin]

1 hour ago, Stonker said:

How do you know?

Has that been announced, stated or reported anywhere?

It's been widely reported. https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2144879/first-covid-infected-tourist-found-in-phuket-sandbox

[JohninDublin]

1 hour ago, Stonker said:

Sorry , which reports?

I haven't seen any that say other passengers werent quarantined, just some referring to the tour group and some referring to the flight.

You may well be right, but where was this reported?

WADR: I don't mind you questioning me, but I've just responded to one of your posts about him being in a group and this was widely reported. Can I suggest that instead of using me as surrogate for Google, you do your own research. This is now the third time you've questioned my posts on one article. Of course, that does not mean I am right, but all my posts are in good faith and based on what I've read or seen.

In case you think I am getting defensive, I've read about 50+ articles on this particular case, and I definitely read it in one of these, but I simply can't be bothered to keep doing your research for you by reading through these multiple articles.

I should add in good faith, that someone else has posted that the travel group comprised the entire planeload of passengers, and thus de facto, the entire was quarantined. I've asked for source for this and when it is to hand, I will reply again. 

[JohninDublin]

35 minutes ago, gummy said:

Perhaps reading could be a secondary hobby for you? where did I see it took 17 seconds to replicate itself ?

Oh dear! Correct. You didn't say so. The scenario you alluded to was of a flight attendant being in contact with a ground dispatcher for 17 seconds and then infecting a whole flight as if it was like wet paint transfer. That was what I was trying to explain to you. It wasn't what you wanted to hear that this was an almost impossible event. so you start demanding sources. When I can't provide those because I initially can't find the programme you make a snide post attacking my credibility. When I do provide the source and explain to you in detail as to why your scenario is almost impossible, you respond with "where did I see(sic) it took 17 seconds to replicate itself ?"

Regardless of the fact of what you actually said, it was quite clear what I was explaining, and that is what you challenged. Think about how mature you look when what you are saying comes down to, "No I didn't say that. But I challenged it"?

[gummy]

51 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

Oh dear! Correct. You didn't say so. The scenario you alluded to was of a flight attendant being in contact with a ground dispatcher for 17 seconds and then infecting a whole flight as if it was like wet paint transfer. That was what I was trying to explain to you. It wasn't what you wanted to hear that this was an almost impossible event. so you start demanding sources. When I can't provide those because I initially can't find the programme you make a snide post attacking my credibility. When I do provide the source and explain to you in detail as to why your scenario is almost impossible, you respond with "where did I see(sic) it took 17 seconds to replicate itself ?"

Regardless of the fact of what you actually said, it was quite clear what I was explaining, and that is what you challenged. Think about how mature you look when what you are saying comes down to, "No I didn't say that. But I challenged it"?

[Disparaging and/or abusive comment deleted]

Edited July 9, 2021 by KaptainRob
Refer Forum Guidelines

[JohninDublin]

1 hour ago, gummy said:

[Disparaging and/or abusive comment deleted]

@KaptainRobI find it somewhat ironic that my post should be deleted for "[Disparaging and/or abusive comment deleted], while  the person I was responding to had previously made a denigrating post about my inability to provide a source. When I was later able to do so, in order to save face, he then rewrites the history of the narrative and then makes an apparent reference to my reading comprehension.

If you look through the thread, you will see that this arises from an implication made by him that a cabin attendant might be CV infected by a 17 second contact with ground crew and then go on to infect the entire plane. I explained why this was unlikely, at which stage, he responded to my explanation implying his doubts (which he is entitled to do), and asking for sources. 

My source was a TV prog, which I could not find a link for  initially. I explained this. He then used this to denigrate me by pointing out to those reading his post that I was making posts but not providing links impugning my good faith and integrity. Shortly afterwards. I was able to provide a link as well as explain why arithmetic made his original implication nearly impossible . There is clearly no doubt as to what I was initially talking about, and to what he was responding to. However, now that I've proved my case, he changes the narrative to something like "But I never said it was" and implying that there may be something wrong with my reading comprehension. 

This starts out as a courteous explanation from me, and he almost immediately starts an escalation with his tone. Eventually, he realises that he is wrong, and there are really three options here: Be gracious Or ignore my post. Or save face by changing the narrative. He chose the latter. At not time was he conciliatory. He could have approached this from the standpoint of, "Are you sure? What's your source?" but instead went on the attack. Yet somehow, I suffer two denigrating comments from him and then have to put up with his changing the rules of his game after the event, and I am the one whose comment is deleted. Hmmm?

[JohninDublin]

4 hours ago, Stonker said:

Sorry , which reports?

I haven't seen any that say other passengers werent quarantined, just some referring to the tour group and some referring to the flight.

You may well be right, but where was this reported?

I've since read later reports and some seem to be suggesting that the 15 passengers were the entire passenger manifest. If that's correct, then I have obviously misled you earlier. My apologies.

[Stonker]

4 hours ago, JohninDubin said:

https://hselibrary.ie/what-is-the-false-negative-rate-for-swab-tests-for-covid-19-and-are-there-more-reliable-ways-of-testing-are-rectal-swab-tests-effective-in-detecting-covid-19-for-patients-presenting-with-gastrointes-2/

Extract: "It is unclear the exact percentage of tests that produce false negatives but evidence from China proposes a rate as high as 30%^14, 26, 27. A systematic review of the accuracy of COVID-19 tests reported false negative rates of between 2% and 29%¹⁴."

If I recall correctly, my figure was based on a radio report which reported this and they then substituted 15% as being the average between the upper and lower figures.

That's from April last year - things have moved on since then.

[Stonker]

1 hour ago, JohninDubin said:

I've since read later reports and some seem to be suggesting that the 15 passengers were the entire passenger manifest. If that's correct, then I have obviously misled you earlier. My apologies.

Appreciated.

[JohninDublin]

21 minutes ago, Stonker said:

That's from April last year - things have moved on since then.

You may be right, but I am still hearing that figure often quoted on news radio channels by scientists etc, where I am.

[JohninDublin]

23 minutes ago, Stonker said:

Appreciated.

Your very welcome. Nothing like assuming good faith from a poster and that's appreciated too

[Tarquin]

One of Bangkok's Test & Go hotels had a tour group of 41 arrive in the last two days. One of them tested positive and the other 40 are now in 14 day quarantine. The hotel has had to run around rescheduling like mad. I can only assume that if they're considered close contacts they must have packed them all on one bus.
And of course if the 40 all tested negative their insurance is unlikely to pay.
I'm actually surprised the press hasn't got wind of this yet.

 

[Cabra]

On 7/7/2021 at 3:02 PM, Woifal said:

So I believe that the nice Arab gentleman had a fake vaccination certificate or a fake PCR test before departure. 

Seeing a lot of this (globally)... fake certs. This is going to lead to gov issued vaccine passports soon enough.

[Marc26]

6 hours ago, Tarquin said:

One of Bangkok's Test & Go hotels had a tour group of 41 arrive in the last two days. One of them tested positive and the other 40 are now in 14 day quarantine. The hotel has had to run around rescheduling like mad. I can only assume that if they're considered close contacts they must have packed them all on one bus.
And of course if the 40 all tested negative their insurance is unlikely to pay.
I'm actually surprised the press hasn't got wind of this yet.

 

For the 100th time 

The Thailand insurances specifically for Thailand Pass say they cover the quarantine 

 

Now if a tourist wanted to cheap out on 125usd and use their own, then that's on them 

[Manu]

On 7/9/2021 at 2:29 PM, Stonker said:

The only way to bring in a few million vaccinated tourists is to give them what tourists want: bars, restaurants, concerts, nightlife, no masks, no restrictions.

Thailand doesn't have enough people vaccinated to do that.

Says who? How on earth are you qualified to give that statement? 

[Stonker]

3 hours ago, Manu said:

Says who? How on earth are you qualified to give that statement? 

I've no idea why this has been resurrected some six months later, but if you think that millions of vaccinated tourists are descending on Thailand if it has no bars, restaurants, concerts, or nightlife open, and all the masking rules and other restrictions still in place, then maybe you need to take a look around you !

Where are they all, even though some of those restrictions are no longer in place ?

[Manu]

Not sure where you are In Thailand but I am sorry to say I see more and more tourists about, all of them so far seem to be the let’s get ob with it type of tourists. Masks not when absolutely useless etc…they don’t do it…rightly. Locals Thai and farang follow..well it has always been like that here. Not one person has even be closed to anything bad with COVID here . Nothing. 

[satpete]

mask at crowded streets or inside are okay,

but at lonely streets or at beach absolutly a punish by government to control people,

why do they not order wearing mask at bad air pollution ?

because they will do nothing against it, but virus is out of their control

Edited December 16, 2021 by satpete