Phuket “Sandbox” traveller infected with Covid-19, tour group now in quarantine

[JamesE]

6 hours ago, Ringo said:

So when someone in your group comes up positive, you can still be locked up during your 2 week holiday.. I'll pass.

This is the big thing. If somebody you've never met just happens to be on the same flight with either a new infection or (easily) faked documents you're still going to end up in quarantine and not at a place of your choosing.

[JamesE]

6 hours ago, David297 said:

I think the issue here is about how risky it is to enter the sandbox and expect to get 14 days of quarantine-free holiday; which is why I'm uncertain about whether to apply for my CoE right now!

And had this traveler tested positive at Day 12, the members of all the groups he was associated since departing would have to get locked up for another 14 days. Yeah, that works. Thanks, but I'm going to go ASQ into Bangkok and be done with it.

[Soidog]

3 minutes ago, JamesE said:

This is the big thing. If somebody you've never met just happens to be on the same flight with either a new infection or (easily) faked documents you're still going to end up in quarantine and not at a place of your choosing.

I think that’s the part many people returning are unaware of. It is a risk which could affect you. It all feels like it’s about 6 months too early to be taking such a risk unless you have overwhelming reasons to return to  Thailand. It’s certainly not a risk someone looking for a bit of sunshine and R&R should be considering. 
 

It would help if when someone who has been in contact with a positive case is simply isolated in their hotel room rather than carted off to hospital. They could then have a test after 3 or 4 days and if clear be allowed to carry on with their plans. No additional costs to the individual, just some inconvenience.  

[SickBuffalo]

55 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

Now you add in the chance of getting a 14 day quarantine for someone else testing positive. I'm not sure we know whether or not that last sentence is completely true or not. At least not yet.

You hit the nail on the head. As the number of outbreaks increase, it is very likely that the authorities will make the logical leap to quarantine not only anyone who can be proved to have been in, say, the same Starbucks at the same time as an infected person, but also anyone staying in the same hotel.

The fear of political embarrassment, at a time when the government is deeply unpopular even with elites who arranged the coup, combined with a genuine ignorance, will inevitably lead to ridiculous overreactions.

[SickBuffalo]

14 minutes ago, Soidog said:

It would help if when someone who has been in contact with a positive case is simply isolated in their hotel room rather than carted off to hospital. They could then have a test after 3 or 4 days and if clear be allowed to carry on with their plans. No additional costs to the individual, just some inconvenience.  

It might be better if they simply jumped forward to the model the EU are introducing for tourism: if you have been, at least two weeks before, fully vaccinated with an EU-recognized vaccine (Pfizer, Moderna, J&J, AstraZeneca) you are considered to be safe.

Yes, there may be edge cases were a fully vaccinated person may be infected, but the chances are low and their ability to transmit it to anyone else is 66% lower.

If you want mass tourism to return you simply have to accept that minimal risk and drop all the restrictions and safety theatre.

 

Edited July 7, 2021 by SickBuffalo

[Soidog]

32 minutes ago, SickBuffalo said:

It might be better if they simply jumped forward to the model the EU are introducing for tourism: if you have been, at least two weeks before, fully vaccinated with an EU-recognized vaccine (Pfizer, Moderna, J&J, AstraZeneca) you are considered to be safe.

Yes, there may be edge cases were a fully vaccinated person may be infected, but the chances are low and their ability to transmit it to anyone else is 66% lower.

If you want mass tourism to return you simply have to accept that minimal risk and drop all the restrictions and safety theatre.

 

Can’t disagree with that. What they are trying to do here is something the Thais are normally very good at, which is finding compromise between two opposing forces. Unfortunately, I think this one has stumped them. If they are not careful, more and more bad stories, videos and social media posts will damage the Thai tourist reputation and damage genuine recovery in Q1 2022. If the place isn’t really ready to open safely (which it isn’t), then stay closed, get your act together on the vaccines and then go for it in 2022. 
 

Sorry, I meant to add. When I say not ready to open safely, I meant for the local people as they are not fully vaccinated. The only risk here is to the local population, not the fully vaccinated visitors. 

Edited July 7, 2021 by Soidog
Omission and clarification

[SickBuffalo]

31 minutes ago, Soidog said:

If the place isn’t really ready to open safely (which it isn’t), then stay closed, get your act together on the vaccines and then go for it in 2022. 

We agree on most things but this is one of the areas where we don't.

To me, it is clear that there is negligible risk from the fully vaccinated as long as you have a reliable way to confirm that they have, indeed, received one of the effective vaccines that also happen to minimize your ability to become infected or to transmit the virus yourself.

Yes, of course, there would still be some risk but I can see, all around me, that each month this country goes without the vital injection of tourist money is harder than the month before. The impact has now filtered through even to businesses that have no direct connection to tourism. It turns out that the most free-flowing money in the economy was coming from those dirty farangs. All my Thai friends with online businesses report that sales have almost completely dried up over the two or three months. They are alarmed and stressed.

Thais are resilient in many ways, but they are not good with money. None of them imagined that the good times would end. They have the highest levels of personal debt in Asia. Suicide numbers may already exceed Covid deaths but, of course, are not accurately reported because the families would lose face.

The Coronavirus and, in particular, the more virulent variants are already present in Thai. That cat is out of the bag and halfway down the street. Yes, it would be better if their vulnerable had already been vaccinated but, for whatever reason, the government didn't get around to placing any orders last year. At this stage, bringing in a few million vaccinated tourists will do nothing to further harm their chances, but it will help their families.

 

Edited July 7, 2021 by SickBuffalo

[Soidog]

3 minutes ago, SickBuffalo said:

We agree on most things but this is one of the areas where we don't.

To me, it is clear that there is negligible risk from the fully vaccinated as long as you have a reliable way to confirm that they have, indeed, received one of the effective vaccines that also happen to minimize your ability to become infected or to transmit the virus yourself.

Yes, of course, there would still be some risk but I can see, all around me, that each month this country goes without the vital injection of tourist money is harder than the month before. The impact has now filtered through even to businesses that have no direct connection to tourism. It turns out that the most free-flowing money in the economy was coming from those dirty farangs. All my Thai friends with online businesses report that sales have almost completely dried up over the two or three months. They are alarmed and stressed.

Thais are resilient in many ways, but they are not good with money. None of them imagined that the good times would end. They have the highest levels of personal debt in Asia. Suicide numbers may already exceed Covid deaths but, of course, are not accurately reported because the families would lose face.

The Coronavirus and, in particular, the more virulent variants are already present in Thai. That cat is out of the bag and halfway down the street. Yes, it would be better if their vulnerable had already been vaccinated but, for whatever reason, the government didn't get around to placing any orders last year. At this stage, bringing in a few million vaccinated tourists will do nothing to further harm their chances, but it will help their families.

 

I do agree with you here. I think the risk is small, but they seem paranoid about it in Thailand. Part of the problem, is that for a year nearly, they were told Zero Covid was the only way. And so even one case is seen as a major issue. Well there are tens of thousands of infected local people. Phuket has at least got some degree of protection and as you rightly say, it’s not the vaccinated tourists who are the main issue here. It’s the delivery drivers and locals crossing the open bridge each day. 

[el_khan]

I wonder if the guy actually came down with symptoms at all or if he's just an asymptomatic carrier.

Considering that everyone coming in is vaccinated, it will be interesting to see if a pattern emerges with people who test positive being more likely to have been vaccinated with one vaccine over the others.

[Mannekenpis]

14 hours ago, Mike-Hunt said:

Just how could this happen? After all the precautions and checks that have been put into operation.

Red faces all round - but not directly from Covid.

This is exactly why this sandbox is destined to fail. They have to be vaccinated, we have to be vaccinated, but still all cases are treated like they are not. The guy tested positive, doesn't even know it but has to spend the next 2 weeks in hospital (very expensive one as he is insured) and all his buddies who were hoping on some kind of holiday are now stuck in a room. Then you wonder why nobody wants to come

[TiT]

11 hours ago, Ringo said:

So when someone in your group comes up positive, you can still be locked up during your 2 week holiday.. I'll pass.

That's the biggest concern I have.  Despite whatever precautions you take back in your home country, you're at the mercy of whatever happens to the other passengers on your flight.  Terrible odds.

[gummy]

17 hours ago, Mike-Hunt said:

Just how could this happen? After all the precautions and checks that have been put into operation.

Red faces all round - but not directly from Covid.

Well. We don't know if this is the Delta strain or whatever yet. But if it is then medical opinion suggests that it can be transmitted from person to person in 14 sec contacts. The passenger may well have had a test 3 days prior to travel. However we have all flown and seen the flight attendants handed the flight manifest from the Dispatcher prior to closing the doors. Just a thought but why couldn't have that person ( the dispatcher) have simply picked up the virus since his or her own test ?

Just an off the cuff suggestion perhaps but surely a plausible one that the dispatcher passes it (the virus)  to the flight attendant who would then circulate around the cabin during the flight. That would not be a breakdown in procedure, it would just be an example of how the best procedures and risk assessments can only mitigate those risks, not 100% ensure they do not occur and we all know that vaccinated people can still transmit the virus anyway.

[Leo]

The UAE made headlines a few weeks ago when it announced it will start booster shots already with the Pfizer vaccine. It's leading the chart of most vaccinated countries......with the Sinopharm one. Infections have been hovering around 2,000 a day since April. They just announced the emergency use of Moderna.

Edited July 8, 2021 by Leo

[JohninDublin]

On 7/7/2021 at 3:28 PM, EdwardV said:

Sorry I was talking about the personal risk vs reward associated with all travel. Not the risk associated with Thailand deciding to open or not. In most travel we all do some level or risk vs reward calculation, even if it's just subconsciously. In coming to Phuket right now you risk: the normal cost of the vacation, bad weather as it's monsoon season, the possibility of testing positive and getting a 14 day quarantine along with the extra costs and bureaucratic hoops to be jumped associated with the scheme. To some that's a lot, to others not so much. The reward is to lay on a beach and eat Thai food. Now you add in the chance of getting a 14 day quarantine for someone else testing positive. I'm not sure we know whether or not that last sentence is completely true or not. At least not yet. 

Those who were quarantined were part of the same travel group. You only run that risk if someone in your travel group is infected. If you arrive alone and don't share a cab to your hotel, that part should not happen.

[JohninDublin]

19 hours ago, gummy said:

Well. We don't know if this is the Delta strain or whatever yet. But if it is then medical opinion suggests that it can be transmitted from person to person in 14 sec contacts. The passenger may well have had a test 3 days prior to travel. However we have all flown and seen the flight attendants handed the flight manifest from the Dispatcher prior to closing the doors. Just a thought but why couldn't have that person ( the dispatcher) have simply picked up the virus since his or her own test ?

Just an off the cuff suggestion perhaps but surely a plausible one that the dispatcher passes it (the virus)  to the flight attendant who would then circulate around the cabin during the flight. That would not be a breakdown in procedure, it would just be an example of how the best procedures and risk assessments can only mitigate those risks, not 100% ensure they do not occur and we all know that vaccinated people can still transmit the virus anyway.

So that you understand, the virus is not like paint transfer. The particles are so minute that they will take time to develop mass. You make be able to catch it from a 14 second contact, but that will be from someone who has been infected for a few days. It's not like I touch wet paint and shake hands with you and then you shake hands with someone else. The virus needs to spend time in your body to replicate. If you could just breathe it in and then breathe it straight out again, then it would not be in your body long enough to cause an infection. 

[JohninDublin]

23 hours ago, TiT said:

That's the biggest concern I have.  Despite whatever precautions you take back in your home country, you're at the mercy of whatever happens to the other passengers on your flight.  Terrible odds.

If you read the reports, you will see that it wasn't the other passengers on the plane who were quarantined, but the other passengers in the group that he travelled with. I am not sure the numbers who have arrived to date, but up till then, 2117 passengers had arrived. I understand that there were a lot more passengers on that flight, but it was only this group of 15 who were travelling as a group booking, all going to the same hotel,  on the same transport, who were isolated. 

On that basis, single travellers only need to worry about themselves being infected.

[gummy]

3 hours ago, JohninDubin said:

So that you understand, the virus is not like paint transfer. The particles are so minute that they will take time to develop mass. You make be able to catch it from a 14 second contact, but that will be from someone who has been infected for a few days. It's not like I touch wet paint and shake hands with you and then you shake hands with someone else. The virus needs to spend time in your body to replicate. If you could just breathe it in and then breathe it straight out again, then it would not be in your body long enough to cause an infection. 

Interesting you respond without quoting one slither of supporting evidence so what exactly is your point ?How do you know that the dispatcher had not come into contact with a carrier a few days  before the aircrafts departure whom themselves carried the virus ?  Do you know the testing protocols for that airports ground staff ?  I don't that is why I made the supposition. Anyway an interesting point you raised regarding the virus development so I look forward to you posting a link explaining that scientifically

[JohninDublin]

11 minutes ago, gummy said:

Interesting you respond without quoting one slither of supporting evidence so what exactly is your point ?How do you know that the dispatcher had not come into contact with a carrier a few days  before the aircrafts departure whom themselves carried the virus ?  Do you know the testing protocols for that airports ground staff ?  I don't that is why I made the supposition. Anyway an interesting point you raised regarding the virus development so I look forward to you posting a link explaining that scientifically

This is all stuff that I've heard on reputable science progs such as BBC's Horizon. I think a lot of of it is quite logical and it's well known that the virus makes copies of it self once it has invaded a host. This takes time. And have you not heard of "viral load"? It's the lack of viral load that often leads to false negatives as there is insufficient to detect it initially. That's one of the reasons why if you take a HIV test, and it comes back negative, you are told you should retest in 3 months time. 

Regardless, I don't see the relevance of your question about  ground staff testing protocols . You gave an example of a fight attendant coming into contact with an infected dispatcher, and the flight attendant then passing it on by walking around the cabin. That was the point I was responding to and ground staff protocols are an irrelevance in that scenario. 

But then again, ground staff are probably a very low risk group at work because they should be practicing social distancing etc, and their contacts will in the main, be low risk due to mandatory pre-flight testing or because  passengers have been vaxxed. Then again, if you can pass it on and infect others immediately, virtually the whole world should be sick right now.

Hope this helps?

[gummy]

4 hours ago, JohninDubin said:

This is all stuff that I've heard on reputable science progs such as BBC's Horizon. I think a lot of of it is quite logical and it's well known that the virus makes copies of it self once it has invaded a host. This takes time. And have you not heard of "viral load"? It's the lack of viral load that often leads to false negatives as there is insufficient to detect it initially. That's one of the reasons why if you take a HIV test, and it comes back negative, you are told you should retest in 3 months time. 

Regardless, I don't see the relevance of your question about  ground staff testing protocols . You gave an example of a fight attendant coming into contact with an infected dispatcher, and the flight attendant then passing it on by walking around the cabin. That was the point I was responding to and ground staff protocols are an irrelevance in that scenario. 

But then again, ground staff are probably a very low risk group at work because they should be practicing social distancing etc, and their contacts will in the main, be low risk due to mandatory pre-flight testing or because  passengers have been vaxxed. Then again, if you can pass it on and infect others immediately, virtually the whole world should be sick right now.

Hope this helps?

So you have no supporting evidence for your statements then. All readers please take note

[KhunG]

On 7/7/2021 at 3:39 AM, Stonker said:

So how did the American "escapee" manage to leave  without one?

Since you're given a test on arrival, and he had to leave the next day, he didn't leave without one.

Edited July 9, 2021 by KhunG
spelling

[AdvocatusDiaboli]

News flash 

 

Sandbox tourists stuck in quarantine ask to go home

Love to see them pass this off to the airline…. Have you passed your PCR test? I feel sorry even for the Phuket Taxi drivers in Quarantine too. 

https://www.thephuketnews.com/sandbox-tourists-stuck-in-quarantine-ask-to-go-home-80618.php

 

 

 

[gummy]

5 minutes ago, AdvocatusDiaboli said:

News flash 

Sandbox tourists stuck in quarantine ask to go home

Love to see them pass this off to the airline…. Have you passed your PCR test? I feel sorry even for the Phuket Taxi drivers in Quarantine too. 

https://www.thephuketnews.com/sandbox-tourists-stuck-in-quarantine-ask-to-go-home-80618.php

 

You feel sorry for the Phuket taxi mafia because they are also in quarantine ? you must be exceptionally compassionate. Scamming from tourists is a pastime. or was a pastime for these crooks so I would say Karma has returned for them.

Edited July 9, 2021 by gummy

[KhunG]

1 hour ago, AdvocatusDiaboli said:

News flash 

Sandbox tourists stuck in quarantine ask to go home

Love to see them pass this off to the airline…. Have you passed your PCR test? I feel sorry even for the Phuket Taxi drivers in Quarantine too. 

https://www.thephuketnews.com/sandbox-tourists-stuck-in-quarantine-ask-to-go-home-80618.php

 

Everyone has a PCR test on arrival.  If they're being sent to quarantine instead of hospital they passed.

[Stonker]

On 7/7/2021 at 8:36 PM, JohninDubin said:

and PCR tests have a 15% fail rate.

 On what planet???

[Stonker]

On 7/7/2021 at 8:43 PM, JohninDubin said:

A major factor is that he was travelling as part of a group. Had the other members of the group travelled as individuals, they would have been ok. 

How do you know?

Has that been announced, stated or reported anywhere?