Does The 21st Century Really Belong To Asia?

[Shade_Wilder]

 

I came across an interesting article (Globe and Mail, link below) which questions the notion that Asia will dominate global economics in the 21st century.

The general thrust of the argument is:

"Modern Asia is built upon a web of close relationships running between and within business and politics: the connections world. Although the connections world has not yet seriously impeded Asia’s economic renaissance, it comes with significant costs and fallibilities. " (link below)

While the article and academic paper focuses more on China, I would say that perhaps Thailand is an even better example of their argument; those of us who live here see and understand the connections between Big Business/High-Sos and the State on an almost daily basis, merely by carefully reading the newspapers. The Red Bull Heir, anyone? Prawit's watches? Insider trading convictions laughed off? Post retirement employment opportunities for senior police/military officers?

I have long wondered if the Thai/Asian model of development is sustainable in an inter-connected world as it tends to require a permanent or semi-permanent 'upper class' and upper classes are only permanent until they aren't. Moreover, I find that this sort of system requires a strong State Security Element, in Thailand it is the Army, to ensure that the upper class remains in control, but that also comes with significant downsides. Further, the perpetuation of an Upper Class leads to stagnation; a brief look around the planet show the benefits of including 'new blood' into a society's leadership positions. Finally, having been in Thailand under military rule and/or semi military rule and during the time when Thailand was governed by civilians, I found the differences stark; when under civilian rule, the Thai people shone, endless possibilities existed, the world paid great attention to see what would occur and there was a sense of great things to come. In contrast, military rule has seen the 'Wet-Blanketing' of the country, a diminishment of both Rights and a 'can-do' spirit, and no one is watching Thailand with awe and hope now. Seriously, no one.

I don't know if anything will ever change, but it is an interesting thought for this Saturday morning.

Some reading/Info...

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-asia-economy-business-dynasties-politicians-relations/

https://www.lse.ac.uk/Events/2022/09/202209291830/connections

 

[KaptainRob]

A thought provoking article and an accurate depiction of Thailands problem going forward.  Your comparison with the past, prior to 2014, is perhaps unfair as the World was generally a happier, financially healthier place back then.

Change will occur though in what form I have no real idea.  I hesitate to use the R word but it's a possibility.

[Shade_Wilder]

1 hour ago, KaptainRob said:

A thought provoking article and an accurate depiction of Thailands problem going forward.  Your comparison with the past, prior to 2014, is perhaps unfair as the World was generally a happier, financially healthier place back then.

Change will occur though in what form I have no real idea.  I hesitate to use the R word but it's a possibility.

 

Morning KR

Hmm... was the global financial situation much better pre-2014? Have you forgotten the crash of 2008? Lehman Brothers? AIG?

However, I am not an economist and am not going to root through global economic statistics to try to make a point; I'll leave that to someone else if they so desire.

A great deal of Economics has to do with confidence and how people feel, and I recall well how it all felt. 

Thailand spent a great deal of time and effort in the 90s trying to define its desired future and the institutions/systems needed to attain it, and in the late 90s/early2000s Thailand was doing great; every street corner, every nook and cranny of Bangkok and beyond was looking to the future with confidence, investing in a better life and just generally getting on with things. 

Yes, I know that it is anecdotal, but the plural of anecdote is data.

The coup of 2006 began putting a stop to it all by adding/altering national institutions controlled by the establishment (Business/High-So/Military, AKA the 'Connected')) to exercise control, thus protecting their 'Connections' AKA their upper-class role. Further, the coup of 2014 cemented control by the upper classes; don't you remember how the watchword was 'to finish what was started in 2006' (I forget the exact phrase)? The plan was to ensure that a non-Bangkok Establishment group could never attain power, and we are still seeing the effects of that effort today; take note of the appointed Senate and recall all the Reds/Oppositionists arrested and exiled in the last few years (BTW, I am not a fan of the Reds).

Thailand should be doing better economically than it is, and the reason that it isn't doing as well as it could is the logjam at the top among the connected; as long as 'Merit' is far behind 'Connected' or 'Friends' or 'Family' or 'Schoolmates' or just 'Other Rich People' as the driving metric for Thais to get ahead, they are going to lag. 

And lag. 

And lag.

If Asia does want the 21st Century to be 'theirs' economically, it'll have to start with political reform.

 

 

[Karolyn]

History belongs to Asia. Not to Asia as a whole, but to China. Love or loathe the Chinese, they were the true world empire, even in Roman times, when they sent armed forces as far away as Europe. The decline and self-imposed isolation of China, in later centuries, was short lived. As was their decline and the rise of Europe, evidently, because things are now back to normal

[KaptainRob]

16 minutes ago, Shade_Wilder said:

Thailand should be doing better economically than it is, and the reason that it isn't doing as well as it could is the logjam at the top among the connected; as long as 'Merit' is far behind 'Connected' or 'Friends' or 'Family' or 'Schoolmates' or just 'Other Rich People' as the driving metric for Thais to get ahead, they are going to lag.

If Asia does want the 21st Century to be 'theirs' economically, it'll have to start with political reform.

I agree. although I would remind you that Prayuth started off with good intentions under Prem's mentoring but went rapidly downhill after his passing, ~2018 IIRC.   And the rot had set in with Outalucks government spending and corruption which was all aimed at getting MrT a 'get out of jail free' card and lining their pockets in the process.

Sadly there is little hope of political reform as all parties (which stand any chance of election) are cast in the same mold.

Thailand could be doing better though it was hit hard by the World economic downturn post 2008, and then Covid.  Since 2014 there was strong output by Thailand in supplying export markets though IMHO it was largely bolstered by quantitive easing by Western economies. 

[Shade_Wilder]

1 hour ago, KaptainRob said:

I agree. although I would remind you that Prayuth started off with good intentions under Prem's mentoring but went rapidly downhill after his passing, ~2018 IIRC.   And the rot had set in with Outalucks government spending and corruption which was all aimed at getting MrT a 'get out of jail free' card and lining their pockets in the process.

Sadly there is little hope of political reform as all parties (which stand any chance of election) are cast in the same mold.

Thailand could be doing better though it was hit hard by the World economic downturn post 2008, and then Covid.  Since 2014 there was strong output by Thailand in supplying export markets though IMHO it was largely bolstered by quantitive easing by Western economies. 

 

Hmm... we certainly see the recent past in Thailand through different eyes.

"Prayut's Good Intentions"? Seriously? 

Respectfully, I don't really see how any Coup D'état is done with "good intentions", it is the forceful taking of political power from those rightfully exercising it, no matter what you might think of them. And, it was not a spur of the moment thing as coups require a lot of planning and preparation; Suthep accidentally admitted that it was a planned operation, likely going back to the night of Yingluck's election victory or (more likely) long before. Additionally, Prayut moving against the government because of corruption is both laughable and hilarious; perhaps you haven't noticed how things are since the coup, corruption-wise? Finally, whatever you might think of Yingluck's government/party (I suspect that we share the same general opinion), it was the Thai people's choice, not the choice of the 'Connected' stealing power for their other 'Connected' pals.

Sadly, I tend to agree that serious, significant reform of Thai politics is still a way off, but I remain ever hopeful; I witnessed the end of the South Korean Strongmen and the fall of the Suharto Regime in Indonesia. Things can change even when we don't see it coming.

Finally, I see Thailand's economic growth since 2014 differently from you; I see it as another 'Connected' event. Yes, perhaps QE in the West helped, but I would argue that the 'Connected' Prayut phoned up his 'Connected' pal Xi and asked for a 'Connected' favor; allow Chinese tourists to visit Thailand. The rise of Chinese tourism since 2014 has accounted for the vast majority of Thai economic growth in the last 8 years and allowed the Thai military to stay in power. The big question is/will be what Prayut offered to Xi (his 'Connected' friend) in return? The rail line from the north, submarines, political support, what else? The 'Connected' favor will always reverberate...

Coming back to my OP and the article under discussion, the more I think about all the 'Connections', the more I think that the authors are on to something profound.

Perhaps it will actually require the 'R' word.