News Forum - Not so smug now? Expat life in the shadow of Truss

[TheDirtyDurian]

8 hours ago, JamesR said:

I don't see any difference at the moment.

I have read there are food banks etc but I have never seen one and do not know anyone who has used one.

The supermarkets, pubs etc are still as busy as ever, no one is dying in the street.

I have seen people interviewed on the news and have said they can either afford to pay for gas or food, I can see from many of them they have chosen food in quite an enthusiastic, way.

I have not seen anyone on the news who said everything is OK and they can eat and also do as they please which is the majority of people as far as I can see, the news is not interested in those types of stories, they only want doom and gloom to report otherwise the news does not sell.

We must be the only country in the world where so called poor and starving people are grossly overweight.

I suppose we will really see poverty when households have to reduce from two cars per family to one.

That is not my experience. I guess it depends where you're coming from.  

Your comment about food banks is silly. They don't put them on the high street. And presumably you're fairly comfortable financially and your friends too so why would you be using one. 

Speaking to my father last week he commented about how even the Weatherspoons is quiet these days. 

I've never seen a lion, doesn't mean they don't exist. 

Fact is, lot of people are hurting right now. Get away from the easy targets of the dolers with flat screens,, and many are hurting. 

[TheDirtyDurian]

15 minutes ago, TheDirtyDurian said:

It's a bit of a misnomer about the higher interest rates in the past. 

When interest rates were high in the past, mortgages as a proportion of salary were much lower. 

These days, due to decades of falling wages in real terms, although interest rates may be lower, the hit is proportionally higher because those "lower" mortgages make up a much higher proportion of salary. 

Add in high inflation and high energy costs and that's why so many people are struggling right now. 

 

From about 1:20 explains the mortgage burden. Last time it was this high was just before housing crash in 90s.

Even with the "low rates" of today. 

Like they say, it's all relative...

 

 

[Soidog]

45 minutes ago, TheDirtyDurian said:

It's a bit of a misnomer about the higher interest rates in the past. 

When interest rates were high in the past, mortgages as a proportion of salary were much lower. 

These days, due to decades of falling wages in real terms, although interest rates may be lower, the hit is proportionally higher because those "lower" mortgages make up a much higher proportion of salary. 

Add in high inflation and high energy costs and that's why so many people are struggling right now. 

Are they? How many people are struggling? What percentage of people are struggling and what’s does struggling mean? I still maintain the media is over representing struggling people and struggling isn’t the same as it was 40 years ago in the U.K. and certainly isn’t anywhere near how you would define it for billions across the world. 

[TheDirtyDurian]

26 minutes ago, Soidog said:

Are they? How many people are struggling? What percentage of people are struggling and what’s does struggling mean? I still maintain the media is over representing struggling people and struggling isn’t the same as it was 40 years ago in the U.K. and certainly isn’t anywhere near how you would define it for billions across the world. 

Well if you're going to bring in comparisons with absolute poverty and relative poverty, of course, 99.99% in the UK are doing fine...

It's not really a fair comparison though is it to compare Yemen with the UK and so on. 

[Soidog]

8 minutes ago, TheDirtyDurian said:

Well if you're going to bring in comparisons with absolute poverty and relative poverty, of course, 99.99% in the UK are doing fine...

It's not really a fair comparison though is it to compare Yemen with the UK and so on. 

No, it’s not fair on the level that relative poverty can be difficult to deal with due to social pressures. However, I still feel many, not all people in the U.K. who claim to be “Poor” simply aren’t. I feel that if I could have access to their finances you would spot some fairly obvious issues and errors of judgement on their part. Why do people in countries like the U.K. want government to keep out of their life (Jesus, they won’t even accept ID cards in the U.K.) and then when their own decisions place them in financial problems, they expect tax payers money to bail them out? 
 

I want my taxes to be spent on helping the genuine needy. I also want my taxes to build better infrastructure and develop the country further. The nanny state and welfare state is costing hundreds of billions each year and teaches whole generations that they are entitled and they can continue to live without responsibility as ultimately the state will step in. I think that is so wrong and the road to destruction. The U.K. is already well down that road and it seems there’s no where and no one to turn it around. 
 

I would also add that it would help with perspective if the media did as you rightly pointed out and stopped calling poverty. Relative poverty is the correct term. No on in the U.K. is genuinely poor anymore. No one 

[23RD]

1 hour ago, Soidog said:

No, it’s not fair on the level that relative poverty can be difficult to deal with due to social pressures. However, I still feel many, not all people in the U.K. who claim to be “Poor” simply aren’t. I feel that if I could have access to their finances you would spot some fairly obvious issues and errors of judgement on their part. Why do people in countries like the U.K. want government to keep out of their life (Jesus, they won’t even accept ID cards in the U.K.) and then when their own decisions place them in financial problems, they expect tax payers money to bail them out? 
 

I want my taxes to be spent on helping the genuine needy. I also want my taxes to build better infrastructure and develop the country further. The nanny state and welfare state is costing hundreds of billions each year and teaches whole generations that they are entitled and they can continue to live without responsibility as ultimately the state will step in. I think that is so wrong and the road to destruction. The U.K. is already well down that road and it seems there’s no where and no one to turn it around. 
 

I would also add that it would help with perspective if the media did as you rightly pointed out and stopped calling poverty. Relative poverty is the correct term. No on in the U.K. is genuinely poor anymore. No one 

Good post Soidog the UK has a far to generous Welfare System with a poor verification process to ensure the correct People are getting the correct benefits. 

The Introduction of National ID cards would solve a lot of problems with waste in the Welfare System. 

[TheDirtyDurian]

 

Excellent documentary from the FT for all those saying it's just C19 or Ukraine. 

 

 

[cowslip]

On 10/17/2022 at 12:40 PM, Soidog said:

Well it’s a good job we had such a high standard to work from. I think the U.K. will survive and rebound. Not easy to extricate yourself from a financial and political club you have been a member of for nearly 50 years. It would be foolish to think it would be without difficulties. Covid has then added insult to injury and Trussenomics was the final kick in the nuts

you will note that the EU is doing much better than the UK and the UK is hampered by an overall disadvantage of 4 to 10% Brough about by Brexit.

[Rookiescot]

This is from the FT. An organisation you would expect to know what its talking about regarding the economy.

Now I know this will illicit the usual flag biting "taking back control" and other three word slogans but what I would like a Brexiteer to do is actually refute its findings.

 

[cowslip]

2 hours ago, Rookiescot said:

This is from the FT. An organisation you would expect to know what its talking about regarding the economy.

Now I know this will illicit the usual flag biting "taking back control" and other three word slogans but what I would like a Brexiteer to do is actually refute its findings.

I used cross the channel in a pantechnicon every week or so to buy and transport Art and Antiques throughout western EU and for shipping to the USA from UK, this is simply not possible now. 

I'm vey familiar with crossing the channel from various points from the 1970s to 2000 and the difference 1992 made was unbelievable - ending freedom of movement has totally denigrated trade with the Uk and lowered their international esteem. We are now on a par with developing countries, but we are going in the opposite direction.

[aladdin]

This was a meandering article of fluff. Exactly WHAT has SHE done or left undone? that has polarized people?

[cowslip]

6 hours ago, aladdin said:

This was a meandering article of fluff. Exactly WHAT has SHE done or left undone? that has polarized people?

Her plan to reduce high taxes etc etc has completely crashed and burned - she sacked the Chancellor and the one who replaced him totally reversed everything sh'e put in place.

Now she has sacked the home secretary and looks like leaving.

(these sackings are within days of being appointed - the shortest time in history)

The problem for expats who rely on a fixed income or the English pound is the damage she has done to the confidence in the pound is more or less permanent. It means interest rtes for government borrowing etc are quite a bit higher even with all her policies reversed. Coupled with the damaged reputation is the instability. 

This means: - 

• massively higher mortgages - if people are living of rental income.
• Devalued pound means lower real income from pensions or any other income in UK.
• Poorer rates of exchange
• bank savings interests are not increasing.
• The government is refusing to guarantee to link pensions to inflation - further blow to pensioners (UK pensions are already half that of France and one third that of Germany)

All this means less money for expats...

 

 

[TheDirtyDurian]

3 hours ago, cowslip said:

Her plan to reduce high taxes etc etc has completely crashed and burned - she sacked the Chancellor and the one who replaced him totally reversed everything sh'e put in place.

Now she has sacked the home secretary and looks like leaving.

(these sackings are within days of being appointed - the shortest time in history)

The problem for expats who rely on a fixed income or the English pound is the damage she has done to the confidence in the pound is more or less permanent. It means interest rtes for government borrowing etc are quite a bit higher even with all her policies reversed. Coupled with the damaged reputation is the instability. 

This means: - 

• massively higher mortgages - if people are living of rental income.
• Devalued pound means lower real income from pensions or any other income in UK.
• Poorer rates of exchange
• bank savings interests are not increasing.
• The government is refusing to guarantee to link pensions to inflation - further blow to pensioners (UK pensions are already half that of France and one third that of Germany)

All this means less money for expats...

Yeah, but we got our country back. Won't be bending over and taking it from Jonny Foreigner no more.

[Soidog]

3 hours ago, cowslip said:

Her plan to reduce high taxes etc etc has completely crashed and burned - she sacked the Chancellor and the one who replaced him totally reversed everything sh'e put in place.

Now she has sacked the home secretary and looks like leaving.

(these sackings are within days of being appointed - the shortest time in history)

The problem for expats who rely on a fixed income or the English pound is the damage she has done to the confidence in the pound is more or less permanent. It means interest rtes for government borrowing etc are quite a bit higher even with all her policies reversed. Coupled with the damaged reputation is the instability. 

This means: - 

• massively higher mortgages - if people are living of rental income.
• Devalued pound means lower real income from pensions or any other income in UK.
• Poorer rates of exchange
• bank savings interests are not increasing.
• The government is refusing to guarantee to link pensions to inflation - further blow to pensioners (UK pensions are already half that of France and one third that of Germany)

All this means less money for expats...

There is no doubt this Truss government have been and continue to be a disaster. They have behaved as if they were new to politics and have no idea how the bank, markets and policy makers interact. Some would say it was a deliberate attempt to shake up the normal way of operating and the bank and markets won the fight. 
 

I do think some of the bullet points are a little unfair to place all on this government, as many were already major issue prior to Truss even being PM

Mortgage rates are linked to interest rates. All major economies are currently raising interest rates to try and control inflation. What Truss did was spook and upset the markets and so greedy mortgage providers pulled deals and took the opportunity to make more money. 

The Pound has been trading around the 38-45 region for many years. In fact in April 2013, long before Truss or Brexit were to blame and in Sept 2019 it hit a low of 37.4 baht to the Pound.

To blame bank saving rates on anyone other than the banks is wrong. Truss can’t make private banks or even the Bank of England change its interest rates. 
 

As for the so called “Triple Lock” on pensions. Further reassurances were given in the House of Commons yesterday that this would be maintained. A policy which I believe is wrong. Many pensioners in the U.K. have a very decent lifestyle. You go in to bars and restaurants mid-week lunchtimes and the clientele is mainly retired people turning up in their German cars. To give pensioners anything more than public sector workers seems a difficult justification to make. Especially as many pensioners also have private pensions as well. 
 

Im sure Truss will be gone within weeks if not days. She will need to go if any confidence in the government is to return. 

[cowslip]

13 hours ago, Soidog said:

o blame bank saving rates on anyone other than the banks is wrong. Truss can’t make private banks or even the Bank of England change its interest rates. 

 

Come on - do you even understand the basics - the decisions LT made forced the bank to expanded its emergency purchases of government bonds to calm financial markets riled by her plan to cut taxes.

Mortgage interest rates and bank savings rates are not operated by the same systems - her activities immediately cause banks/building Socs to suspend almost all their mortgage products. The saving banks can't increase their interest rates offered as they are on a different system.

Boris is the one who brought about Brexit without a plane for after - he was found to be too unreliable and a liar so the Tories disposed him and then put Liz in to exacerbate the mess.

Now they have gotten rid of her (by the 1922 committee BTW - who really run the Tories) and after over 3 months the Tories cannot come up with a PM.

 

I don't think you know how to read a graph over. long period - you don't pick out individual highs or lows and cherry pick points that support your erroneous argument - you need to look at the median line over a period. You also need to look at the pound to dollar as well as the pond to Thai baht. However you can clearly see that after Brexit the pound which a=had been in the 45 to 60 range for years has taken a steady fall to around the 40 baht.

KLT 's boss Hunt refused to guarantee the triple lock - period. 

State pensions in the UK are half that of France and a third that of Germany. The EU were pressurising the UK to increase their levels of pension to come in line with civilised countries. That and various financial accountability was are why so many rich Tories wanted to support Brexit.

the reason people have German cars in the Uk was there are no UK cars and they used to buy them without tax =- tey are no dearer than any other cars. They will be be in years to come as duties are reintroduced.

 

"To give pensioners anything more than public sector workers seems a difficult justification to make." - this appears to be nonsense - what are you trying to say?

[cowslip]

13 hours ago, TheDirtyDurian said:

Yeah, but we got our country back. Won't be bending over and taking it from Jonny Foreigner no more.

So if "johnny Foreigner" earns enough money to pay the British government 45% in Tax, now he only has to pay 19% - to me that sounds like we are getting LESS back?

[Soidog]

51 minutes ago, cowslip said:

Come on - do you even understand the basics

You seem very upset by all of this which is why you may be turning to personal attacks. I’m sorry to see that. 
 

I do hope you aren’t one of these expats who retired to Thailand between 1998-2008?  If you were, then I can understand  your frustrations. Fact is they were golden days for the exchange rate and you were sort of living in a fools paradise. Below is the historical exchange rate for the pound against the Baht. You tell me what the Median value is as you seem to understand and these things and see how it compares to this years median.  

[TheDirtyDurian]

2 hours ago, cowslip said:

So if "johnny Foreigner" earns enough money to pay the British government 45% in Tax, now he only has to pay 19% - to me that sounds like we are getting LESS back?

Think you got your figures wrong there. The plan was to abolish the 45% rate for income over 150k and see all high earners pay 40% for income over 50k

Anyways, they U-turned it, and now Truss has gone the same way as her budget. 

[cowslip]

On 10/20/2022 at 8:14 PM, TheDirtyDurian said:

Think you got your figures wrong there. The plan was to abolish the 45% rate for income over 150k and see all high earners pay 40% for income over 50k

Anyways, they U-turned it, and now Truss has gone the same way as her budget. 

yes-, the UK basic income tax rate was 20%. This increases to 40% for your earnings above £50,270 and to 45% for earnings over £150,000. Your earnings below £12,570 are tax-free.28 Jul 2022

[Chaimai]

12 hours ago, cowslip said:

yes-, the UK basic income tax rate was 20%. This increases to 40% for your earnings above £50,270 and to 45% for earnings over £150,000. Your earnings below £12,570 are tax-free.28 Jul 2022

 

Minor typo......Tax Allowance is £12,750

[cowslip]

8 hours ago, Chaimai said:

Minor typo......Tax Allowance is £12,750

Ah! That changes everything!

[cowslip]

On 10/20/2022 at 6:34 PM, Soidog said:

You seem very upset by all of this which is why you may be turning to personal attacks. I’m sorry to see that. 
 

I do hope you aren’t one of these expats who retired to Thailand between 1998-2008?  If you were, then I can understand  your frustrations. Fact is they were golden days for the exchange rate and you were sort of living in a fools paradise. Below is the historical exchange rate for the pound against the Baht. You tell me what the Median value is as you seem to understand and these things and see how it compares to this years median.  

A one quote wonder erroneously trying to cherry pick

try to explain what you think that graph says...

[cowslip]

for those who don't know what. "median" looks like........

 

[Rookiescot]

On 10/21/2022 at 12:34 AM, Soidog said:

You seem very upset by all of this which is why you may be turning to personal attacks. I’m sorry to see that. 
 

I do hope you aren’t one of these expats who retired to Thailand between 1998-2008?  If you were, then I can understand  your frustrations. Fact is they were golden days for the exchange rate and you were sort of living in a fools paradise. Below is the historical exchange rate for the pound against the Baht. You tell me what the Median value is as you seem to understand and these things and see how it compares to this years median.  

What is the meridian against the dollar?

I would imagine that matters a lot more.

[Soidog]

14 minutes ago, cowslip said:

A one quote wonder erroneously trying to cherry pick

try to explain what you think that graph says...

Sorry, I have no idea what you are saying or asking. You have the graph, you work out the median if you wish. As they say here….up to you!