News Forum - No more Mr Nice Guy – dazed Putin seeks to emulate US glory in Vietnam

[Thaiger]

The US had been secretly bombing Cambodia for years, though it wasn’t much of a secret to the Cambodians, when The New York Times exposed the practice in May 1969. President Richard Nixon and national security advisor Henry Kissinger had believed they had a game changer that would bring the victory the army failed to deliver, but of course they were wrong, as usual. In Ukraine, godless, ruthless, and hairless as Col. Kurt, the fictional Green Beret in Apocalypse Now, 56 year old Sergei Vladimirovich Surovikin has taken control, so everything is sure to be alright. Surovikin was in charge […]

The story No more Mr Nice Guy – dazed Putin seeks to emulate US glory in Vietnam as seen on Thaiger News.

Read the full story

[Shade_Wilder]

"Surovikin has no remedy for the army’s uselessness on the battlefield, nor low motivation, poor training and substandard weaponry.  That is why he is steering the war away from conventional battles, to blowing up thousands of civilians in their homes and butchering the survivors."

This is pretty much the only relevant piece of information in this entire article; trying to make a comparison to the US in Vietnam is trying to be too cute by half and leads one to suspect that the writer is paid by the word and really, really needs some extra cash.

Let's unpack.

Ukraine is receiving a HUGE amount of assistance from NATO, and will continue to do so. Russia has used up much of its pre-war equipment and is facing great difficulty either manufacturing more or purchasing more. Moreover, this disparity between the two sides will only increase as time goes on due to respective Industrial Bases. What are the consequences of this? Ukraine will, in time, militarily push Russia out of its territory.

As Russia cannot compete in terms of equipment, it is launching a classic terror campaign to try to break the will of the Ukrainian people. Will it succeed? No.

Firstly, Russia simply doesn't have enough material to sustain a long-term terror campaign, and if there is even the slightest indication that it'll work, NATO will just send more/better equipment to counter it. Secondly, there is an old saying in military circles; "No one goes into battle successfully believing that God is on the other side", or words to that effect. Ukrainians believe in their homeland, believe in their military, believe in their President and will maintain morale until victory. None of that is true about Russians. Finally, each day Russia looks worse and worse. It may not matter today or tomorrow, but the diminishment and destruction of reputation and global standing is occurring daily, and there comes a point where not even allies will support you; that is the outcome for Russia, a pariah state.

There will be many more horrors to come, sadly. However, the only real outcome here is Nuremburg-style War Crimes trials for those senior leaders and officers who survive assassination attempts.

It is disgusting that we humans do this to each other, but there it is.

[Chatogaster]

5 hours ago, Shade_Wilder said:

There will be many more horrors to come, sadly. However, the only real outcome here is Nuremburg-style War Crimes trials for those senior leaders and officers who survive assassination attempts.

I quickly lost interest in the article but your concise summary of some key points in the war is excellent. The quote is the part where you skipped too many steps for my liking:

The Nuremburg trials were held in Nuremberg because of its symbolic value (that's where the West "broke the spirit" of the German military). Nuremberg was (& is) German territory, so if in the end your analogy turns out to be highly accurate Russia would first need to be invaded (and then broken). I can only see that happening if the nuclear option is employed.

If Russia isn't invaded, Nuremberg-like trials would need to be the result of a radical & violent change of the Russian regime. Unless executed in a swift, chirurgical way, that is fraught with (again) nuclear dangers.

Considering some off-chance scenario's: I don't foresee Putin getting tired of it all soon (and opting for retirement with a nice pension). Last but not least, a peace treaty seems far of (and even if that happened: it wouldn't result in war trials). 

In summary, I can't help but wonder if your prediction about "Nuremburg-style war crimes trials" also predicts nuclear bombs being thrown about.

 

Edited October 15, 2022 by Chatogaster
typo's

[js89]

6 hours ago, Shade_Wilder said:

Russia has used up much of its pre-war equipment and is facing great difficulty either manufacturing more or purchasing more.

This is absolutely correct and something that many people who are just casual observers of the conflict fail to appreciate. Russia is truly hosed.

The Royal United Services Institute was given access to Russian precision guided missiles and advanced weapons systems by the Ukrainian government. They disassembled and analysed the equipment and found an extremely high dependence on western semiconductors. With sanctions, Russia cannot reliably manufacture more precision guided missiles. This article is long, but worth a read to appreciate the gravity of the supply chain dependence on western tech: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/silicon-lifeline-western-electronics-heart-russias-war-machine. I suggest reading the downloadable PDF. 

Pavel Luzin, a well known Russian defence sector analyst, wrote the following analysis which asserts that by year end, Russia will be out of weapons, including artillery shells, due to the dependence on foreign acquired machinery and chemical precursors in their ammunition industry. https://theins.ru/en/politics/254573

Finally, Russia's position in southern Ukraine is untenable. Around 20,000 troops of the 49th Combined Arms Army are trapped in a pocket on the right bank of the Dnipro. All bridges across the Dnipro with the exception of the one at the Nova Khakhova hydroelectric plant are unusable, meaning that resupplying those troops is very difficult, as everything needs to be trucked across the river. Even that is now much harder.

Russia is 100% dependent on rail for its logistics. Furthermore, Russia does not have modern logistics, with no usage of pallets and forklifts. Everything is by hand. Supplies are manually unloaded from a train and put onto trucks by hand. 

The Kerch rail bridge situation has crushed Russian logistics in southern Ukraine. The rail bridge has serious structural damage from the explosion. Photos show the concrete supports are severely compromised, as would be expected with a fire burning above 700 celsius for several hours. There is no way a fully laden train is going across that rail bridge for some time.

As a result, Russia now needs to use trucks to supply the southern grouping of forces, using the ferry from Russia to Crimea. Yesterday, 900 trucks were waiting for 3 - 4 days to cross into Crimea (see satellite image below) . Russia does not have enough trucks for effective resupply and for those troops on the right bank, the distance from the nearest rail head is right at the maximum they can manage for truck-based logistics resupply (ie., 90km or more in some case).

The 49th Combined Arms Army on the right bank of the Dnipro is toast. They were short on ammunition  even before the Kerch Bridge was hit. Now, they're short on food and ammunition. Even the forces on the left bank of the Dnipro are under serious threat due to the outage of the Kerch Bridge. Expect to see at least the right bank forces collapse in a few weeks, if not sooner, possibly even followed by total collapse in the rest of Kherson oblast. 

Edited October 15, 2022 by js89

[js89]

1 hour ago, Chatogaster said:

Considering some off-chance scenario's: I don't foresee Putin getting tired of it all soon (and opting for retirement with a nice pension).

Yes, unlikely that he will go quietly. Yale Levin Professor of History Timothy Snyder speculated on how he thinks the possible end-game may evolve. Speculative, but interesting read: 

https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-does-the-russo-ukrainian-war

[Soidog]

20 hours ago, Shade_Wilder said:

It is disgusting that we humans do this to each other, but there it is.

A great post @Shade_Wilder  I just hope when this mess is over, NATO countries don’t fall for the trick of thinking the new leader is different and more friendly and spend hundreds of billions supporting the Russian state. It’s a difficult balance to strike, as you don’t want to punish the normal citizens, while at the same time making sure support is earned through genuine lasting change. 

[Fanta]

23 hours ago, Thaiger said:

 

Surovikin has no remedy for the army’s uselessness on the battlefield, nor low motivation, poor training and substandard weaponry.  That is why he is steering the war away from conventional battles, to blowing up thousands of civilians in their homes and butchering the survivors.

 

What a crock of BS. Russia fired over 80 missiles and drones into all areas of  Ukraine in a day and there were less than 100 dead and injured, not 1,000’s. The missile & drone strikes targeted the power, military and transportation infrastructure of Ukraine, not residential areas. Ukraine was immediately forced to announce they could no longer export power, 30% of the power grid was down, Ukrainians are still being urged to conserve power and the attacks against the electrical grid and transportation infrastructure continue. fyi: It is a criminal offence in Ukraine to disseminate any information of missile hits and misses, military movements, damage sustained etc etc so we only see Kyiv approved messages (eg: playground damage).