Thailand still plans to fully reopen on October 15, despite Covid-19 uptick

[Thaiger]

Despite the recent and most severe wave of Covid-19 infections still peaking, Thailand is on track to reopen on October 15 to those travelling from overseas who have been vaccinated against the coronavirus. The “Phuket Sandbox” model, which launched yesterday, will serve as a pilot project for the nationwide reopening plan. The “Samui Plus” travel model next on the list, planned to start on July 15. PM Prayut Chan-o-cha addressed the nation 2 weeks ago, announcing the plan to fully reopen Thailand within 120 days, regardless of if most people are fully vaccinated or not. “We cannot wait for a […]

The post Thailand still plans to fully reopen on October 15, despite Covid-19 uptick appeared first on Thaiger News.

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[Saunk]

The full October reopening doesn't seem realistic given the current situation.

The reality is, you need to either accept things for what they are and fully open and prepare to manage as best as you can, or you have a complete lockdown.  The bug isn't going away anytime soon.

[King Cotton]

6 minutes ago, Saunk said:

The full October reopening doesn't seem realistic given the current situation.

The reality is, you need to either accept things for what they are and fully open and prepare to manage as best as you can, or you have a complete lockdown.  The bug isn't going away anytime soon.

Like the classic 'twixt a rock and a hard place', by the sound of things, yes? . . . Thanks for your debut post!

 

Hello, Saunk and welcome to Thaiger Talk

Please feel free to tell us a bit about yourself in 'Introductions'. It's good to pick-up on those sometimes differing regional or geographical perspectives.

And check-out the Guidelines, too, when you get a free minute. They're there to help us all enjoy our time here.

Happy posting

King Cotton

[EdwardV]

29 minutes ago, Saunk said:

The full October reopening doesn't seem realistic given the current situation.

 

 

While I certainly agree, fact is Phuket wasn't ready to open either and they did. If your stated requirement is 70% fully vaccinated, you don't open with most of the people having a single shot and many of those with a Chinese vaccine. Notice how a few weeks ago Thailand changed the requirement for incoming tourists needing both jabs of dual dose vaccines, to two jabs except for AZ only needing one? There is no reason to do that other than moving the goal post so they would open July 1. The bar for opening everywhere in October is the first two weeks in Phuket. That's a pretty low bar if you ask me.  

[Objectivance]

8 minutes ago, Tornado said:

I think its doable, considering other countries opened up with less then 70%. I think it understandably will be an early slow start as Bangkok struggles with the virus, but considering the demand for COE's, hopefully they can progress economically until the flood gates open in October.

You say that as though there's people frantically filling out their COE en masse. At some point the music will have to be faced,  there will never be but 5% of past tourism highs for the foreseeable decade. That's probably an optimistic figure on my part. Forget whatever you recall, it's a different world now.

[Bluesofa]

 

Thailand still plans to fully reopen on October 15, despite Covid-19 uptick
Three priests walk into a bar....oh wait a minute, this isn't the joke forum after all then?
Sorry, my mistake.

 

[JamesE]

What's lost in the conversation - from on-high and from the media - is the definition of "fully reopen". Phuket is considered fully reopened without quarantine right now. I'm sure most of us would argue that point. So, going forward, don't keep hoping to hop off your flight in BKK, grab a car, and take off on a road trip. That scenario is still way in the misty future.

[Soidog]

3 minutes ago, JamesE said:

What's lost in the conversation - from on-high and from the media - is the definition of "fully reopen". Phuket is considered fully reopened without quarantine right now. I'm sure most of us would argue that point. So, going forward, don't keep hoping to hop off your flight in BKK, grab a car, and take off on a road trip. That scenario is still way in the misty future.

Spot on James. The definition of fully open is as fluid as the term Fully Vaccinated. The truth is, that the goalposts will keep getting moved, numbers massaged and requirements changing every few days. As you rightly say, the world of getting off a plane and being on the beach or in a bar with a cold one 2 hours later is simply not going to happen until March or later 2022. Global vaccination is the only way out of this. Everything else will be a compromise and not “normal”. 

[think-and-ask]

people in every country and every place, in the world,
can open now, if are not scared and work together, because

1. people can rebuild everything and fast. :) ( knowledge exist ).
2. highest right is, article 1, civil rights, ohchr.
3. and viruses are not dangerous /no medical reason for lockdowns.

up to you and everyone, if to keep a world-view from,
tv /tell a vision ( platform where politicians also talks )
or speak personally with people outside of your home-box.

100s people out of some country say to me, not think virus is dangerous,
and 100s people who speak with those 100s people, say the same.
but i have to believe what few people on tv say ? no.

but is not even first about, to believe or to know, is about
to live instead of almost only to survive ( scared based mind ).
remember, people are able to be strong and good, and earth is strong.

[satpete]

the virus will stay next 2 or 3 years in the world,
you cannou shut down a country as long,
you have to live with the virus,

get J&J vaccine, with one shot more people could be safe
than by AZ in a shorter time, it will help not to get badly ill,
even if you get infected
 

[Soidog]

They can plan all they like. I could plan to open the country on August 15th, or September 15th, doesn’t mean it will happen. Unless they ramp up vaccination significantly (500,000 per day, every day, 7 days a week for the next 3 months), then it won’t happen. Even then it would mean most people only having their first jab. If they opt for anything other than the J&J vaccine this means they will be nowhere near to achieving the mysterious “herd immunity” . Even at 500,000 a day, you still need around 6 months to get 75% of the population fully vaccinated. So it won’t happen, unless of course they don’t mind killing 20,000-50,000+ people? That’s what most European countries and the U.S. have done in order to keep economies functioning. 

Edited July 3, 2021 by Soidog

[JamesE]

2 minutes ago, Soidog said:

They can plan all they like. I could plan to open the country on August 15th, or September 15th, doesn’t mean it will happen. Unless they ramp up vaccination significantly (500,000 per day, every day, 7 days a week for the next 3 months), then it won’t happen. Even then it would mean most people only having their first jab. If they opt for anything other than the J&J vaccine this means they will be nowhere near to achieving the mysterious “herd immunity” . Unless of course they don’t mind killing 20,000-50,000 people? 

This was the thing. In Thailand (as in India) the success they had with traditional epidemic strategies let them get complacent about the end game. People - everywhere - are tired of being told what to do even when it was working. So when the hoi-polloi started partying in Thong Lor in April the ship of control had already sailed. Not having a viable vaccination strategy in place at that point left the country out to dry.

That being said, in the US the last two days have seen an uptick in cases following a multi-month decline. There will be a continued increase over the next few months as the new reality and the Delta variant spread through the regions of the country that remain largely unvaccinated. This is not over for anybody, anywhere, yet. I just hope that the new vaccines and new production facilities get ramped up really quickly to minimize what the ultimate toll will be.

[Nobody]

Soidog,  I don't understand the logic about quarantine or closing an entire world again over a virus that existed many years before. Everyone already tired that last year. But things are still getting worse. If anything. Everyone took both loses from both scenarios. Even though they tried to only one. We chose to sacrifice the economy. Create an environment that is survival of the fittest. So now people will get affected long term by both the economy and the virus. Closing the world only delayed the deaths of those that fear the virus. Now that they have the option of some form of vaccine. They are not taking it. You can take a horse to the water. But you can't force it to drink. So now government leaders are acknowledging that they must look after the well being of not only it's citizens. But also the health of the country in which they live as well. If you want to create a society where only the rich can go outside because they are not scared. And the poor stay indoors. Locked forever. Begging the government to give them money for doing nothing. For the rest of their lives. Who will benefit from this?  Everyone has an option now. We closed the world to create these vaccines. This is what people chose to save their lives. But now. People are also scared of it. Realizing they made a mistake. Let the country open up. If you are scared of the virus. Then stay indoors. Stay locked up. There's delivery service for food. And you can work from home. That's what it was built for. The rest of us. Want everything to go back to normal. Without all these restrictions and emergency decrees. At least be thankful it's not the zombie virus. I thank the thai government for their efforts. For trying to keep the sanity, health and safety of the people in Thailand. If you want to put yourself in their shoes. I encourage you to volunteer at a red cross or some disaster relief program. You will witness first hand. The chaos people endure. From losing everything. You go to help them out. But not all of them will agree with you. Or let you help you them. It's just a natural human response. 

[Soidog]

37 minutes ago, Nobody said:

Soidog,  I don't understand the logic about quarantine or closing an entire world again over a virus that existed many years before. Everyone already tired that last year. But things are still getting worse. If anything. Everyone took both loses from both scenarios. Even though they tried to only one. We chose to sacrifice the economy. Create an environment that is survival of the fittest. So now people will get affected long term by both the economy and the virus. Closing the world only delayed the deaths of those that fear the virus. Now that they have the option of some form of vaccine. They are not taking it. You can take a horse to the water. But you can't force it to drink. So now government leaders are acknowledging that they must look after the well being of not only it's citizens. But also the health of the country in which they live as well. If you want to create a society where only the rich can go outside because they are not scared. And the poor stay indoors. Locked forever. Begging the government to give them money for doing nothing. For the rest of their lives. Who will benefit from this?  Everyone has an option now. We closed the world to create these vaccines. This is what people chose to save their lives. But now. People are also scared of it. Realizing they made a mistake. Let the country open up. If you are scared of the virus. Then stay indoors. Stay locked up. There's delivery service for food. And you can work from home. That's what it was built for. The rest of us. Want everything to go back to normal. Without all these restrictions and emergency decrees. At least be thankful it's not the zombie virus. I thank the thai government for their efforts. For trying to keep the sanity, health and safety of the people in Thailand. If you want to put yourself in their shoes. I encourage you to volunteer at a red cross or some disaster relief program. You will witness first hand. The chaos people endure. From losing everything. You go to help them out. But not all of them will agree with you. Or let you help you them. It's just a natural human response. 

So you would vote for the option to open up and let the economy flourish. Nothing at all wrong with taking that  view and it’s a view many other countries have taken. 
 

I think the problem for the Thai government is that they took the initial view to fully lockdown to keep Covid out. It worked very well and I think like many people everyone thought it would all go away within 3-6 months. Unfortunately it hasn’t. Unlike other economies around the world, Thailand just doesn’t have the capacity to close for another 6-12 months. And so now, they have the almost impossible task of trying to persuade the people that having kept you safe from Covid for a year, we now have to sacrifice some of you in order to save the economy. The biggest mistake the Thai government made was not to place early orders with a number of suppliers for the vaccines. Had they started a roll out back in January and inoculating 500,000 a day, they would be close to herd immunity and the whole country could be opening up safely.  
 

Like I said in an previous post, who would want to be a politician in these times?  Good luck Thailand, the next 6 months is going to be tough going. 

[SickBuffalo]

I would love some sort of forum game / voting system that would allow us to make bets (for fun, not money) on the outcome of certain ongoing events.

On Thailand re-opening, I think you are all misreading what is happening right in front of your eyes.

[Soidog]

1 hour ago, SickBuffalo said:

I would love some sort of forum game / voting system that would allow us to make bets (for fun, not money) on the outcome of certain ongoing events.

On Thailand re-opening, I think you are all misreading what is happening right in front of your eyes.

Would you like to enlighten me on what you think is happening right in front of my eyes? 

[MikeTexas]

Risky move.  It is one thing to have vaccines available and people don't want them (America) and another to let everything return to normal while people are clambering to get vaccinated.  At least here in America those that could/will get sick are taking the risk purposely. 

I also found the word "uptick" amusing as it really downplays Thailand's situation.   Texas and California have a combined population roughly to that of Thailand - now that vaccines are out and Delta has arrived the net impact is an increase in cases from a couple of weeks ago but still about half of what Thailand is seeing. 

It is unfortunate that the country's vaccine rollout is taking so long.  

[SickBuffalo]

16 hours ago, Soidog said:

Would you like to enlighten me on what you think is happening right in front of my eyes? 

Apologies Soidog, I was about to reply to your question yesterday but ran into yet another ridiculous limitation on this forum:

... turns out that, if you hit ten posts, you have to wait until the next day, meaning you cannot respond to any questions that your previous posts generate. It also means that, once this forum becomes more active, members will have to pick carefully which discussions they will participate in. Hardly a recipe for forum success.

Anyway, I believe we are watching the junta attempt to turn the ship of public opinion around. The purpose of the Phuket sandbox is to act as a proof that foreigners who are fully vaccinated with good vaccines are no danger to the Thai public.

The grand goal, with the zero-outbreak Phuket evidence in hand, is to bring forward the re-opening of the entire country to fully vaccinated foreigners (with no tests, COE, quarantines, special hotels, special insurance etc) from the previously announced October to August. This will give potential high season visitors the confidence they need, far enough in advance, to go ahead and make their bookings.

As such, while they obviously need a certain number of tourists to arrive in Phuket this month for the press photos, it is actually in their interests that the numbers remain relatively low because their absolute priority is to avoid any outbreak (or, failing that, any outbreak reaching public awareness).

Lacking a real democratic mandate, the junta has always been partial to populist bandwagons. They were always notably hostile to farangs, and inclined to dismiss the contribution of tourism to the modern Thai economy as insignificant. Early in the pandemic, they presented the lack of cases in Thailand as a sort of karmic acknowledgement of how fundamentally good their country is. It suited them, in particular Anutin, to suggest that the dirty farang was the problem.

Now, as it turns out that huge portions of their economy were kept afloat by farang money, at least indirectly, they are in real trouble and scrambling to fix the situation before an interested party in Germany loses his patience and switches his endorsement to another army faction.

Just to be clear, I am not saying that the junta suddenly like tourists, or care about the millions of poorer Thais who depend on tourism, or even that they are intelligent enough to plan ahead. I am saying that, right now, there is a gun to their head. Having previously demonized foreigners, they now need to reverse the public perception they created as rapidly as possible.

They do not want to fill the Phuket hotels this month. They know that hardly any genuine tourists would jump through all those hoops. They know that only unofficial expats desperate to get back to their girlfriends would consider it worth the effort and expense. They hope that, with the bars closed, those guys will mostly stay in their rooms, minimizing any chance of an outbreak. 

By the middle of this month, they will announce that the Phuket sandbox has been a massive success. The Thai news will be full of stories about how the pandemic is more or less over in Europe, about how tourism there is booming thanks to the new EU Digital Covid Certificate, about how countries such as Japan are adopting the EU system, and about how Singapore plans to fully open.

They will continue to make comforting noises about vaccinating 70% of the population, they might even retain the pretence of a phased approach during August, but all the generals, their families, the Sino-Thai business families, and the Thai elites are already fully vaccinated. That is all that really matters. If it is a choice between the survival of their government and the notional safety of the Thai commoners, the decision was never in doubt.

 

[Soidog]

48 minutes ago, SickBuffalo said:

Apologies Soidog, I was about to reply to your question yesterday but ran into yet another ridiculous limitation on this forum:

... turns out that, if you hit ten posts, you have to wait until the next day, meaning you cannot respond to any questions that your previous posts generate. It also means that, once this forum becomes more active, members will have to pick carefully which discussions they will participate in. Hardly a recipe for forum success.

Anyway, I believe we are watching the junta attempt to turn the ship of public opinion around. The purpose of the Phuket sandbox is to act as a proof that foreigners who are fully vaccinated with good vaccines are no danger to the Thai public.

The grand goal, with the zero-outbreak Phuket evidence in hand, is to bring forward the re-opening of the entire country to fully vaccinated foreigners (with no tests, COE, quarantines, special hotels, special insurance etc) from the previously announced October to August. This will give potential high season visitors the confidence they need, far enough in advance, to go ahead and make their bookings.

As such, while they obviously need a certain number of tourists to arrive in Phuket this month for the press photos, it is actually in their interests that the numbers remain relatively low because their absolute priority is to avoid any outbreak (or, failing that, any outbreak reaching public awareness).

Lacking a real democratic mandate, the junta has always been partial to populist bandwagons. They were always notably hostile to farangs, and inclined to dismiss the contribution of tourism to the modern Thai economy as insignificant. Early in the pandemic, they presented the lack of cases in Thailand as a sort of karmic acknowledgement of how fundamentally good their country is. It suited them, in particular Anutin, to suggest that the dirty farang was the problem.

Now, as it turns out that huge portions of their economy were kept afloat by farang money, at least indirectly, they are in real trouble and scrambling to fix the situation before an interested party in Germany loses his patience and switches his endorsement to another army faction.

Just to be clear, I am not saying that the junta suddenly like tourists, or care about the millions of poorer Thais who depend on tourism, or even that they are intelligent enough to plan ahead. I am saying that, right now, there is a gun to their head. Having previously demonized foreigners, they now need to reverse the public perception they created as rapidly as possible.

They do not want to fill the Phuket hotels this month. They know that hardly any genuine tourists would jump through all those hoops. They know that only unofficial expats desperate to get back to their girlfriends would consider it worth the effort and expense. They hope that, with the bars closed, those guys will mostly stay in their rooms, minimizing any chance of an outbreak. 

By the middle of this month, they will announce that the Phuket sandbox has been a massive success. The Thai news will be full of stories about how the pandemic is more or less over in Europe, about how tourism there is booming thanks to the new EU Digital Covid Certificate, about how countries such as Japan are adopting the EU system, and about how Singapore plans to fully open.

They will continue to make comforting noises about vaccinating 70% of the population, they might even retain the pretence of a phased approach during August, but all the generals, their families, the Sino-Thai business families, and the Thai elites are already fully vaccinated. That is all that really matters. If it is a choice between the survival of their government and the notional safety of the Thai commoners, the decision was never in doubt.

 

Fantastic explanation which I found myself totally agreeing with. As you indicate, these guys are no fools, especially when it comes to money. They will know the number arriving under current rules are a small fraction of what’s needed. I’m sure you are right that this is a confidence boost and then they can move on full speed ahead with opening other key tourist locations. I sincerely hope this theory is correct. I’m looking to get back in August or September and a straight PCR Test before and nothing more, would be just perfect  

[SickBuffalo]

26 minutes ago, Soidog said:

I’m looking to get back in August or September and a straight PCR Test before and nothing more, would be just perfect  

Actually, I suspect that the PCR tests will be dumped too because even a slight possibility of a false positive resulting in an expensive hospital stay will dampen any return to mass tourism.

The catch is that entry into Thailand (and most other countries) and the renewal of all visas will be contingent on being fully vaccinated with accepted vaccines.

[Soidog]

1 hour ago, SickBuffalo said:

Actually, I suspect that the PCR tests will be dumped too because even a slight possibility of a false positive resulting in an expensive hospital stay will dampen any return to mass tourism.

The catch is that entry into Thailand (and most other countries) and the renewal of all visas will be contingent on being fully vaccinated with accepted vaccines.

Yes I guess for many people, especially those under the age of 30, that will remain a challenge. That said, it does feel as though we are entering the final phase of this pandemic. Hopefully another 12 months will see the world in a very different place to where it is today?  

[Nobody]

On 7/4/2021 at 4:17 AM, Soidog said:

So you would vote for the option to open up and let the economy flourish. Nothing at all wrong with taking that  view and it’s a view many other countries have taken. 
 

I think the problem for the Thai government is that they took the initial view to fully lockdown to keep Covid out. It worked very well and I think like many people everyone thought it would all go away within 3-6 months. Unfortunately it hasn’t. Unlike other economies around the world, Thailand just doesn’t have the capacity to close for another 6-12 months. And so now, they have the almost impossible task of trying to persuade the people that having kept you safe from Covid for a year, we now have to sacrifice some of you in order to save the economy. The biggest mistake the Thai government made was not to place early orders with a number of suppliers for the vaccines. Had they started a roll out back in January and inoculating 500,000 a day, they would be close to herd immunity and the whole country could be opening up safely.  
 

Like I said in an previous post, who would want to be a politician in these times?  Good luck Thailand, the next 6 months is going to be tough going. 

I agree with you too.  But the one question that no one is able to answer yet. Is who exactly started the virus. Let's say we all do full lockdown. Not even the military or government can go outside. For at least 14 days. And slowy let people out. Only those that test negative. And the virus disappears.  Don't you think it's possible that it would still come back. Because someone created it again. That's my theory at least. I am sure we did stop the virus last year. But it got inducted again after cases stopped surging. Almost as if the receipe was being tweaked. Becausethe first wave was not as affectingas many people and was very slow. Then all of a sudden. The virus started to infect countries with high humidity or extreme cold.  All we can do now. Is just treat the symptoms. Not cure the disease. Until we figure out exactly how it started.

[Soidog]

27 minutes ago, Nobody said:

I agree with you too.  But the one question that no one is able to answer yet. Is who exactly started the virus. Let's say we all do full lockdown. Not even the military or government can go outside. For at least 14 days. And slowy let people out. Only those that test negative. And the virus disappears.  Don't you think it's possible that it would still come back. Because someone created it again. That's my theory at least. I am sure we did stop the virus last year. But it got inducted again after cases stopped surging. Almost as if the receipe was being tweaked. Becausethe first wave was not as affectingas many people and was very slow. Then all of a sudden. The virus started to infect countries with high humidity or extreme cold.  All we can do now. Is just treat the symptoms. Not cure the disease. Until we figure out exactly how it started.

Yes it does seem odd how these things work. It’s the same with viral infections such as Ebola. There are outbreaks that get brought under control and then it suddenly takes off again. The same of course happens each year with flu. It subsides in the summer and then takes off during the winter.

Smallpox is perhaps also very interesting. It ravaged humanity for centuries until it was finally declared eradicated in 1977. I guess, while there is even one person with the virus on the planet, then it can infect another and another and off we go again. 
 

 

[Tapley]

If we are tested in the USA 3 days before boarding to Thailand,  are we retested upon landing and/or are we retested after quarantine? Thanks

[Soidog]

1 hour ago, Tapley said:

If we are tested in the USA 3 days before boarding to Thailand,  are we retested upon landing and/or are we retested after quarantine? Thanks

You are tested on arrival at the airport and twice more during the 14 nights. Day 6 and 13 I believe. 3 PCR tests in total. 4 if you count the one you had at home. Sounds like fun right!