News Forum - Shanghai returns to mass lockdowns and travel restrictions

[Thaiger]

China’s Zero Covid policy is still causing misery around the country amid a return to lockdowns in parts of the major cities, including Shanghai and Beijing. People are being sequestered  of they’ve come into contact with an infected person in high-population areas where the hygiene is generally poor. Beijing has reverted to online teaching in one of its major districts after a new Covid cluster linked to the Heaven Supermarket club. 166 new infections are linked to the nightclub in the city’s Gongti nightlife.  The entire area and the nearby Sanlitun shopping centre have been shut down, including highly popular […]

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[Janneman]

If they stick to the zero covid policy they will have lockdowns for the next 10 years. Luckily the rest of the world has another policy.

[Rebel]

They started the party now they can finish it and turn of the light 

[riclag]

20 minutes ago, Rebel said:

They started the party now they can finish it and turn of the light 

Spot on

[EdwardV]

Zero covid will finish off the decoupling of China to the advanced world economies.
 

The Chinese vaccine barely worked against the original variant, it’s next to worthless against mighty Omicron. The zero covid policy worked well for its original objective. The unintended consequence was few Chinese have natural immunity. On top of that, the Chinese screwed up in prioritizing young people in its vaccination policy. The result was way too many old people never got vaccinated. The Chinese now have no alternative but to keep locking down. Vicious circle to say the least. 

[Soidog]

28 minutes ago, Janneman said:

If they stick to the zero covid policy they will have lockdowns for the next 10 years. Luckily the rest of the world has another policy.

Long may it last. You always have to feel sorry for your average citizen who are made to follow these “leaders”, but given the Chinese lies and face saving nonsense placed the world in the Covid mess it did, then little sympathy overall. 

[Cabra]

And you thought you had in bad in Thailand, be happy you are not in China. China is all about the collective (socialism) and everyone playing their part in Beijing policy, capitalist concerns (the economy) come second. But their going to come to regret this zero COVID policy, if not now, one day. If will be interesting to see how and if Beijing walks back this policy. 

 

[Soidog]

Just now, Cabra said:

And you thought you had in bad in Thailand, be happy you are not in China. China is all about the collective (socialism) and everyone playing their part in Beijing policy, capitalist concerns (the economy) come second. But their going to come to regret this zero COVID policy, if not now, one day. If will be interesting to see how and if Beijing walks back this policy. 

Correct  Many governments had this policy during the initial phase and until vaccines were developed. The Chinese,  with their ineffective vaccine means they are still in the initial phase. 

[DiJoDavO]

I think that some people on The Thaiger might move directly to Shanghai after hearing this news.

[HiuMak]

These lockdowns could be a cloud of smoke. A real agenda may be behind it. 

[rc1]

What a nightmare.

They could vaccinate - using imported vaccines, the entire population very quickly if they decided to.

But no, this absolutely crazed alternative of Zero Covid is being pursued. 

 

[Venusianhart]

Some China watchers muse that Xi is stress testing the authorities ability to curtail mass unrest, or seal off radiation/biochemical  targets in a future war.

He may be deposed if he steps on too many toes, China is no North Korea, the peoples love of trade will always trump the party line in the bitter end, but the CCP won't dissapear without a long decline, like Rome it will evolve, then likely fall foul of empirical overreach and unrest at home. 

[Highlandman]

2 hours ago, rc1 said:

What a nightmare.

They could vaccinate - using imported vaccines, the entire population very quickly if they decided to.

But no, this absolutely crazed alternative of Zero Covid is being pursued. 

They've already vaccinated nearly the entire eligible population, reportedly even 3 times.

Unlike in Thailand and most other countries, this has not been a voluntary process for most. At the beginning it kind of was, but after a few months, the country decided to invoke its hastily imposed mandatory vaccination law, enacted on Dec 1, 2019, which obligates all citizens to be vaccinated when the government says.

They will continue persuing Zero Covid, regardless of vaccination coverage, for a while longer.

[Highlandman]

On 6/19/2022 at 1:02 PM, Cabra said:

And you thought you had in bad in Thailand, be happy you are not in China. China is all about the collective (socialism) and everyone playing their part in Beijing policy, capitalist concerns (the economy) come second. But their going to come to regret this zero COVID policy, if not now, one day. If will be interesting to see how and if Beijing walks back this policy. 

Yes, indeed. Thailand hasn't been too bad aside from the religious devotion to mask wearing, which finally looks like it's about to come to an end.

Whereas prior to March, Shanghai was largely mask-free and had been relatively normal since mid-2020 while Thailand had undergone 3 partial lockdowns in that time and an absurd mask mandate that was never lifted even during the quiet, largely zero infection days of late 2020, the tables have started to turn.

Beginning in February-March 2022, Thailand has been slowly opening up while Shanghai has been in some sort of lockdown for coming up to 3 months now with mandatory masks everywhere in public, which won't change anytime soon, a sharp contrast to the quiet, care-free days of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022.

I think this policy might start to shift around the time of the Communist Party Congress in October of this year. However, like Thailand did, if China decides to loosen up, it will come with a gradual lifting of inbound travel restrictions and internal ones, not a "quickly remove bandaid" approach. This means IF inbound and outbound restrictions are eased then, we'll be talking about a 5-7 day quarantine (or maybe less for group tourists) with strict pre-departure and post-arrival testing.

For example, to travel around China now, one will encounter Covid testing checkpoints on highways, where all traffic is forced to stop and get tested at a rest area, before moving on. One needs to have a green QR code to catch public transit, move between provinces and in "outbreak" areas such as Shanghai and Beijing, to do just about anything, even use a public toilet. Changing this will be difficult. Eventually it will be scrapped, but this could continue for the rest of the year and into early 2023 at this rate.

[Cabra]

19 minutes ago, Highlandman said:

Yes, indeed. Thailand hasn't been too bad aside from the religious devotion to mask wearing, which finally looks like it's about to come to an end.

Whereas prior to March, Shanghai was largely mask-free and had been relatively normal since mid-2020 while Thailand had undergone 3 partial lockdowns in that time and an absurd mask mandate that was never lifted even during the quiet, largely zero infection days of late 2020, the tables have started to turn.

Beginning in February-March 2022, Thailand has been slowly opening up while Shanghai has been in some sort of lockdown for coming up to 3 months now with mandatory masks everywhere in public, which won't change anytime soon, a sharp contrast to the quiet, care-free days of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022.

I think this policy might start to shift around the time of the Communist Party Congress in October of this year. However, like Thailand did, if China decides to loosen up, it will come with a gradual lifting of inbound travel restrictions and internal ones, not a "quickly remove bandaid" approach. This means IF inbound and outbound restrictions are eased then, we'll be talking about a 5-7 day quarantine (or maybe less for group tourists) with strict pre-departure and post-arrival testing.

For example, to travel around China now, one will encounter Covid testing checkpoints on highways, where all traffic is forced to stop and get tested at a rest area, before moving on. One needs to have a green QR code to catch public transit, move between provinces and in "outbreak" areas such as Shanghai and Beijing, to do just about anything, even use a public toilet. Changing this will be difficult. Eventually it will be scrapped, but this could continue for the rest of the year and into early 2023 at this rate.

There are also very real implications on Thailand regarding Beijing's zero COVID policy as well... Given Thailand historical depends so much on the Chinese tourist, Thailand is not going to see a significant turn around of their fortunes  until China starts traveling freely again. 

 

 

 

 

[Pinetree]

Excellent news, may keep the hoards out for another couple of months. They can keep the place locked down forever for me.

[JamesR]

The lockdowns in China are having an affect on the worlds economy, the longer they lock down the worse it gets for us, the following link is just an example of some of the negative affects on the economies of the world. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-61274640

[EdwardV]

1 hour ago, JamesR said:

The lockdowns in China are having an affect on the worlds economy, the longer they lock down the worse it gets for us, the following link is just an example of some of the negative affects on the economies of the world. 

That was going to happen anyway. Covid is just speeding it up. The collapsing demographics of China has been driving up labor costs for most of a decade now. The only reason so many companies still build things in China is the sunk facility costs. The zero covid policy is breaking down the remaining reasons for manufacturing to stay in China. Whatever reason those companies convinced themselves were valid are meaningless if you can’t get the product back out with a reasonable certainty. 
 

The CCP knows this, but have decided the zero covid policy is more important. That’s their choice and more power to them in that regard. 

[thaicm]

China's zero covid policy is only as effective as their vaccine, and therein lies the problem.  Their vaccine is barely more effective than water but they keep dishing it out.  Obviously they are unaware of the definition of insanity.