Russian elite start to bemoan invasion

[KaptainRob]

Cracks emerge in Russian elite as tycoons start to bemoan invasion

 

In the two months since Russia invaded Ukraine, the silence - and even acquiescence - of the Russian elite has started to fray.

Even as opinion polls report overwhelming public support for the military campaign, amid pervasive state propaganda and new laws outlawing criticism of the war, cracks are starting to show.

The dividing lines among factions of the Russian economic elite are becoming more marked, and some of the tycoons - especially those who made their fortunes before President Vladimir Putin came to power - have begun, tentatively, to speak.

 

For many, the most immediate focus has been their own woes. Sweeping sanctions imposed by the West have brought down a new iron curtain on the Russian economy, freezing tens of billions of dollars of many of the tycoons' assets along the way.

"In one day, they destroyed what was built over many years. It's a catastrophe," said one businessman who was summoned along with many of the country's other richest men to meet Putin on the day of the invasion.

 

The White House further turned the screws on the oligarchs Thursday, announcing a proposal to liquidate their assets and donate the proceeds to Ukraine.

At least four oligarchs who made it big in the more liberal era of Putin's predecessor, President Boris Yeltsin, have left Russia. At least four senior officials have resigned their posts and departed the country, the highest ranking among them being Anatoly Chubais, the Kremlin special envoy for sustainable development and Yeltsin-era privatisation czar.

But those in top positions vital to the continued running of the country remain - some trapped, unable to leave even if they wanted to. Most notably, Russia's mild-mannered and highly regarded central bank chief, Elvira Nabiullina, tendered her resignation after the imposition of Western sanctions, but Putin refused to let her step down, according to five people familiar with the situation.

In interviews, several Russian billionaires, senior bankers, a senior official and former officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity for fear of retribution, described how they and others had been blindsided by their increasingly isolated president and feel largely impotent to influence him because his inner circle is dominated by a handful of hard-line security officials.

 

The complaints aired in public so far are mostly muted and focused primarily on the government's proposed economic response to the sanctions imposed on Russia by the West. No one has directly criticised Putin.

Vladimir Lisin, a steel magnate who made his fortune in the Yeltsin years, slammed a proposal in the Russian parliament to counter sanctions by forcing foreign buyers to pay in rubles for a list of commodities beyond gas. In an interview with a Moscow newspaper, he said the measure risked undermining export markets that Russia "fought for decades," warning that "a transfer to payments in rubles will just lead to us being thrown out of international markets”.

Vladimir Potanin, the owner of the Norilsk Nickel metals plant who was an architect of Russia's privatizations in the 1990s, warned proposals to confiscate the assets of foreign companies that exited Russia in the wake of the war would destroy investor confidence and throw the country back to the revolution of 1917.

Oleg Deripaska, an aluminium tycoon who also made his initial fortune during the Yeltsin era, has gone furthest, calling the war in Ukraine "insanity," though he too has focused on the invasion's economic toll.

He has predicted that the economic crisis resulting from the sanctions would be three times worse than the 1998 financial crisis that rocked the Russian economy, and he has thrown down the gauntlet to the Putin regime, saying its state capitalism policies of the past 14 years have "led neither to economic growth nor to the growth of the population's incomes”.

In a subsequent post on his Telegram channel, Deripaska wrote that the current "armed conflict" was "a madness for which we will long be ashamed of." In the next sentence, however, he indicated the West was equally to blame for a "hellish ideological mobilisation from all sides”.

Story continues here > CLICK

Sources: Stuff NZ, Washington Post

 

 

 

 

[Vigo]

The death count to date is 5 oligarchs and 3 high level Russian state industry businessmen.

https://www.newsweek.com/every-russian-oligarch-who-has-died-since-putin-invaded-ukraine-full-list-1700022

That should silence the dissent for a bit.

Edited May 2, 2022 by Smithydog
Added url

[EdwardV]

I can’t bring my self to feel sorry for them. 

[Pinetree]

haha , priceless.  Tough tittie boys. 

[friendofthai]

One could think that it is a punishment. No. It is manipulation. Because there could be personal exceptions for those oligarchs who become helpful.

[Shade_Wilder]

Interesting article; thanks KR. If members haven't gone and read the entire thing, I'd recommend doing so.

The sanctions are going to be a fascinating test case for future power struggles globally; can countries wage a war if it means giving up economic ties to the wealthiest of countries? Or perhaps a better way to think about all this is to bastardize Von Clausewitz's famous dictum that "War is continuation of policy by other means"; perhaps we should alter it to state 'Extreme economic sanctions are continuation of war by other means'.

The one giant flaw in utilizing sanctions as a weapon of war (let's face it; the sanctions ARE a weapon here) is that they lag the physical war on the ground. Yes, there has been a giant shock to the Russian economy, but the effects of the greater shock need time to work their way through.

"...Nabiullina warned the impact of sanctions was yet to be fully felt and said the worst was still to come. The manufacturing plants, where "practically every product" depended on imported components, were beginning to run out of supplies, while reserves of imported consumer goods were dwindling, too. "We are entering a difficult period of structural changes," she told parliamentary deputies. "The period during which the economy can live on reserves is finite”..."

I am not an economics expert, but it appears that 3-6 months is required to burn through all the reserves built up to the point where factories and the like cease to function. Next, we'll need to add more time to exhaust what is available from allies and/or 'War profiteers' (yes you, Thailand) before those supplies get cut off as well; given the genuine anger displayed toward Russia, I am certain that foreign experts on Russia's industrial base have already told Ukraine's allies precisely what items to target to sabotage Russia's economic/industrial base. If I had that kind of knowledge, I'd tell. Wouldn't you?

Finally, the medium and longer-term consequences of all this need to be analyzed. The basic question, looking back a few years from now, is going to be 'was this worth it?' Will the economic damage suffered be seen as a reasonable price to pay for the military gains, or did the economic loss outweigh the military benefits derived?

"...For some of the executives, as they quietly discussed the consequences of Putin's war, it was the moment they realised that it was all over for the business empires they'd been building since Russia's market transition began more than 30 years ago. "Some of them said, 'We've lost everything,'" one of the participants said."

Long-term, Russia is going to lose massively in the the global economic sphere, no matter what occurs now; the real question is not if, but by how much?

Were Putin to have a heart attack and die today, and his successor immediately sued for peace, the economic fallout still would last years, if not decades. Would you go right back into Russia if you had a business there? Currently, new markets and new suppliers are lining up to take over Russia's business', and does anyone think that they'll just go away when this war ends? Nope.

The best case scenario that I see for Russia economically is that it becomes the junior partner in a Chinese/Russo Alliance.

Well done, Vlad baby.

I often wonder what future historians will say about our times. Could this era be seen as the end of the 'West'? There are some indications that this could occur. Could this era be seen as the time when warfare was seen to be much less powerful than economics? This is also possibility. 

My gut feeling is that our immediate post-Covid times will be seen as the calm before the storm. However, I am undecided if that storm will be one of great progress towards better times or the pause before things really crash Sadly I have a feeling that the days of muddling through with slow and steady progress are coming to an end; it will be a huge change whichever direction.

Hmm...

 

[Rookiescot]

9 minutes ago, Shade_Wilder said:

Interesting article; thanks KR. If members haven't gone and read the entire thing, I'd recommend doing so.

The sanctions are going to be a fascinating test case for future power struggles globally; can countries wage a war if it means giving up economic ties to the wealthiest of countries? Or perhaps a better way to think about all this is to bastardize Von Clausewitz's famous dictum that "War is continuation of policy by other means"; perhaps we should alter it to state 'Extreme economic sanctions are continuation of war by other means'.

The one giant flaw in utilizing sanctions as a weapon of war (let's face it; the sanctions ARE a weapon here) is that they lag the physical war on the ground. Yes, there has been a giant shock to the Russian economy, but the effects of the greater shock need time to work their way through.

"...Nabiullina warned the impact of sanctions was yet to be fully felt and said the worst was still to come. The manufacturing plants, where "practically every product" depended on imported components, were beginning to run out of supplies, while reserves of imported consumer goods were dwindling, too. "We are entering a difficult period of structural changes," she told parliamentary deputies. "The period during which the economy can live on reserves is finite”..."

I am not an economics expert, but it appears that 3-6 months is required to burn through all the reserves built up to the point where factories and the like cease to function. Next, we'll need to add more time to exhaust what is available from allies and/or 'War profiteers' (yes you, Thailand) before those supplies get cut off as well; given the genuine anger displayed toward Russia, I am certain that foreign experts on Russia's industrial base have already told Ukraine's allies precisely what items to target to sabotage Russia's economic/industrial base. If I had that kind of knowledge, I'd tell. Wouldn't you?

Finally, the medium and longer-term consequences of all this need to be analyzed. The basic question, looking back a few years from now, is going to be 'was this worth it?' Will the economic damage suffered be seen as a reasonable price to pay for the military gains, or did the economic loss outweigh the military benefits derived?

"...For some of the executives, as they quietly discussed the consequences of Putin's war, it was the moment they realised that it was all over for the business empires they'd been building since Russia's market transition began more than 30 years ago. "Some of them said, 'We've lost everything,'" one of the participants said."

Long-term, Russia is going to lose massively in the the global economic sphere, no matter what occurs now; the real question is not if, but by how much?

Were Putin to have a heart attack and die today, and his successor immediately sued for peace, the economic fallout still would last years, if not decades. Would you go right back into Russia if you had a business there? Currently, new markets and new suppliers are lining up to take over Russia's business', and does anyone think that they'll just go away when this war ends? Nope.

The best case scenario that I see for Russia economically is that it becomes the junior partner in a Chinese/Russo Alliance.

Well done, Vlad baby.

I often wonder what future historians will say about our times. Could this era be seen as the end of the 'West'? There are some indications that this could occur. Could this era be seen as the time when warfare was seen to be much less powerful than economics? This is also possibility. 

My gut feeling is that our immediate post-Covid times will be seen as the calm before the storm. However, I am undecided if that storm will be one of great progress towards better times or the pause before things really crash Sadly I have a feeling that the days of muddling through with slow and steady progress are coming to an end; it will be a huge change whichever direction.

Hmm...

Sanctions will not work in cases of short decisive wars. Czar Putin believed he could win in the Ukraine within 48 hours then he simply presents it as a done deal and tells the west deal with it.

For protracted wars then yes they will have a huge impact. Especially if you have miscalculated the support you will get from other countries such as China like he has done. While refusing to condemn the war in public China has made almost no effort to support it and until the active war stops I dont think it will. It will of course be the first to offer assistance when the shooting stops but not until then. China does not want sanctions put on itself.

Emperor Xi will see this as a fantastic opportunity to turn Russia into a vassal state. How the generals and powerful guys in Russia see that state of affairs could be very detrimental to Czar Putins health.

As for Russia itself. Initially the sanctions may play into Czar Putins hands. He can point at them and the economy and using propaganda coalesce public opinion behind himself but eventually people will tire of it and Russia is going to run out of hard currencies and reserves. Namely dollars and gold. It still has very large foreign debts that need to be serviced. If Russia fails to pay those then its credit rating will collapse and its game over. Very detrimental to Czar Putins health.

Of course he might think right OK lets get myself out of this war so the sanctions can get lifted but without a victory to show the Russian people thats a very risky move. All that death and destruction is in vain and the west will demand reparations for the damage caused so still not looking good for the Russian economy. Or for Czar Putin.

Does he get desperate? Start raising the stakes? Go nuclear? Its highly unlikely the Russian military will risk Armageddon just to save Czar Putins ego and skin. The result of that is again very detrimental to his health.

I honestly cannot see how Czar Putin comes out of this and remains the leader of Russia or indeed alive. 

[palooka]

48 minutes ago, Shade_Wilder said:

The best case scenario that I see for Russia economically is that it becomes the junior partner in a Chinese/Russo Alliance.

Cheap Chinese tyres bought by corrupt officials stalls Russian forces (msn.com)

At this stage all Putin really has left is Russias' Nuke arsenal and threats.

Considering the poor condition of Russias armed forces and resources, their nukes may not be in a serviceable condition particularly if they have been using cheap knock offs from China to maintain them. ICBM silos and nuke weapons need  massive amounts of maintenace. Maintenance costs big time and we may find they have had maintenace short falls due to corruption and using inferior parts. 

So  I would question how much of the nuke arsenal actually works. 

"China may know."

(personally I think 25% if they are lucky)