News Forum - Ukraine’s Zelensky defies Russia’s ultimatum to lay down weapons

[Rookiescot]

9 hours ago, Fanta said:

For those that don’t believe that MSM is pushing propaganda, please note that the word ”surrender” is never mentioned in the article. Apparently laying down arms and being marched out into enemy hands to be taken to enemy held territory is deemed an evacuation. At least they are safe now.

These are your words are they not?

So how does that chime with your previous claims Zelensky was stopping them from surrendering?

[Fanta]

2 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

Yeah he claimed that about the civilians sheltering there. He was of course wrong about that.

Link to my post or retract that. 

[Rookiescot]

Just now, Fanta said:

Link to my post or retract that. 

I will not retract it and I will not go looking for all your posts which made that claim. I am not your servant. 

[Fanta]

2 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

I will not retract it and I will not go looking for all your posts which made that claim. I am not your servant. 

You are a troll and a liar. I am done answering your drivel. 

[Chatogaster]

3 hours ago, oldschooler said:

Great Losses in any War are normal for both sides. Ukraine making a simple notice of leader change. Yet your instinctive interpretation  as “admission of failure” is negative and unevidenced. 

 

The actual cause isn't explained, so it makes a sense to try to imagine all potential reasons, assign a likelihood to each of them and then form an opinion.

Here are some potential reasons I came up with:

• a completely random change - 0%
• maternity leave - 0%
• age of pension reached - 0.1%
• conflict of personalities/family issues - 1%
• debilitating health issues (incl. stress) - 5%
• performance issues - 45%

I left an very generous gap of 48.9% to be filled in by the more imaginative inclined. Still, "performance issues" seems most likely to me as well. If you consider that an unwanted negative statement, just rephrase it into "opportunities for improvement" (to me both are neutral statements).

 

[Rookiescot]

25 minutes ago, Fanta said:

You are a troll and a liar. I am done answering your drivel. 

I am sure others will recall your many claims the civilians inside the steelworks were being held against their will and used as human shields.

[oldschooler]

57 minutes ago, Chatogaster said:

The actual cause isn't explained, so it makes a sense to try to imagine all potential reasons, assign a likelihood to each of them and then form an opinion.

Here are some potential reasons I came up with:

• a completely random change - 0%
• maternity leave - 0%
• age of pension reached - 0.1%
• conflict of personalities/family issues - 1%
• debilitating health issues (incl. stress) - 5%
• performance issues - 45%

I left an very generous gap of 48.9% to be filled in by the more imaginative inclined. Still, "performance issues" seems most likely to me as well. If you consider that an unwanted negative statement, just rephrase it into "opportunities for improvement" (to me both are neutral statements).

Again.So What ? Leaders changed at General level all the time for many reasons.  If he failed he took a bloody long time (12 weeks) to be replaced. 

Being a general officer in wartime must bloody hard & exhausting. Politics & Warfare skills required. And in that role anyone would be mostly failing most of the time, relying on his colonels & majors advice & improvisation. 

[oldschooler]

1 hour ago, Fanta said:

4,500 + reinforcements in Mariupol DEAD means maybe 1,000 dead in the rest of Ukraine? Ridiculous. Even TIME, a bastion of MSM, disagrees..

“Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense is not releasing combat casualty numbers to maintain morale, but experts believe it has lost at least 25,000 troops — up to 11,000 deaths and 18,000 wounded —since the February 24 invasion. Over two and a half months into the war, Ukraine’s losses are at least 10% of their now undoubtedly exhausted army of under 250,000.”

https://time.com/6176748/ukraine-war-economy/

Mariupol was a lost cause many weeks ago. Insane military move to reinforce with those unsupported numbers virtually guaranteed to be lost. simply not credible. Suicide move like from Chinese or Russian human waves certainly, no one else.

Also HOW can such an efficient NATO level defensive & counter- attacking force, well dug into cities & Donbass , raiding with NATO weapons & striking with laser- guided artillery etc ; lose 11,000 dead in 12 weeks against such bad troops.

Again not possible, unless following the 3 to 1 rule, Russia has 33,000 Dead. Now that I can accept as consistent with their incompetence levels. 

[EdwardV]

2 hours ago, Fanta said:

4,500 + reinforcements in Mariupol DEAD means maybe 1,000 dead in the rest of Ukraine? Ridiculous. Even TIME, a bastion of MSM, disagrees..

Do we actually know there were 4.5K defenders in Mariupol? We were told up to just a couple of days ago there was still 1K defenders left yet less than 300 came out. Whatever the number is of Ukrainian KIA, it’s probably less than half of what Russian killed are just by the fact Russia has been the one attacking most of the time. Are we trying to come to an educated guess or just proving the media is full of it? 
 

Regardless Ukraine has taken a lot of losses as the quote you provide points out. Just as it also points out correctly Russia has take a lot more. Also probably correct. Keep in mind Ukraine has more troops in theater, probably a lot more than Russia. It’s why while I still think this is Russian’s war to lose, they have to flip that number first. For some reason, domestic for sure, they won’t do so. Just seems strange to me??? 

[Fester]

2 hours ago, Fanta said:

Ukraine admitting losses? Only those which are undeniable and not even then. At least 4,500 + reinforcements were in Mariupol and didn’t come out. Last month Zelenskyy claimed only 2,500-3,000 total killed in all of Ukraine. Maybe they dropped a 0 off the end… 

Why not ask a Ukrainian government minister? 

Of course, we have these numbers. I know them almost precisely, but I won’t name any, until the end of the war… We’re suffering losses, and they are considerable. They’re much smaller than the Russian ones, but they aren’t small”

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3443116-ukraine-not-to-reveal-own-military-death-toll-until-war-ends.html

Go find an image of a destroyed Ukrainian tank. Good luck with that.

Regarding your last thoughtless comment, yes difficult. That's because the Russians can't seem to destroy any Ukrainian military equipment as well as advance past and actually capture it in time to get souvenir snaps. They seem to prefer massive long-range shelling, then taking and holding wasted empty ground and communities, sometimes killing and raping any civilians that might choose not to cooperate. After all that there are many reports of them getting drunk on looted booze.

No real military skill, honour or discipline. Putin should be ashamed of them, as well as himself. 

[Fester]

22 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

Do we actually know there were 4.5K defenders in Mariupol? We were told up to just a couple of days ago there was still 1K defenders left yet less than 300 came out. Whatever the number is of Ukrainian KIA, it’s probably less than half of what Russian killed are just by the fact Russia has been the one attacking most of the time. Are we trying to come to an educated guess or just proving the media is full of it? 
 

Regardless Ukraine has taken a lot of losses as the quote you provide points out. Just as it also points out correctly Russia has take a lot more. Also probably correct. Keep in mind Ukraine has more troops in theater, probably a lot more than Russia. It’s why while I still think this is Russian’s war to lose, they have to flip that number first. For some reason, domestic for sure, they won’t do so. Just seems strange to me??? 

Haw Haw knows, he knows everything.

[Fanta]

20 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

Are we trying to come to an educated guess or just proving the media is full of it? 

Good question. Both?  It is pointless without actual data and, regardless of inflated claims and propaganda, it is obvious that Russia must have taken a lot more casualties because they are attacking and Ukraine is defending. Russia loves claiming 10 zillion pieces of Ukrainian equipment destroyed but always little info on troops losses incurred or inflicted. Ukraine publishes its dead civilian count almost daily and vague numbers for Russian dead and equipment. 

[EdwardV]

4 hours ago, Fanta said:

Go find an image of a destroyed Ukrainian tank. Good luck with that.

Well besides the obvious reason being Ukraine doesn't really want to show those pictures. There are other logical reasons too. The first being Ukraine isn't using their tanks in the same way as Russia. The second is they haven't been using a lot of tanks period. Ukraine started the war with 2 regular tank brigades, and 3 reserves ones. The only one that's been in continuous action is a regular unit in Donbas. I know one reserve unit has been sitting near Odesa the entire war in case Russia decided to do an amphibious invasion. Another is near Izyum, don't know which type, and is now also in action. Where the other two are is anyone guess, I would assume both are being held in reserve. Of course there are also tanks in every mechanized brigade too. However Ukraine isn't using them like Russia, out on their own leading the advance (where the bulk of the losses happen). They are mostly being used as mobile direct fire artillery. Keep in mind Ukraine has been holding most of their tanks in reserve to fight an expected tank battle once the ground dries up and Russia completes it's breakout. Once you get to June, Ukraine's landscape is great for tank warfare.   

Still I think the point remains Ukraine is at some point going to start running out of tanks. There are only so many old Soviet Union tanks left to grab and send to backfill. I haven't hear anything else about the ones in Cyprus, and I know Poland still has 2-3 hundred they can send over. No doubt there are more, but counties are hesitant to let go their tanks if they don't have a replacement. Still no news of on those Leopard 1s sitting in Germany gathering dust either. 

[EdwardV]

 

Military analyst Mikhail Khodarenok has subsequently made headlines around the world for being the first senior Russian commentator to reveal the Kremlin is on the back foot and likely to lose. Speaking on Russian state TV, he said: “Let’s not consume info-sedatives. “Sometimes information is being spread about some sort of psychological breakdown in Ukraine’s Armed Forces, suggesting some sort of a breakthrough is imminent. “None of this has a basis in reality. ″Of course, there are separate incidences with prisoners of war, some divisions, but those are  separate incidents. “We should be looking at the totality of circumstances.” He continued: “Ukraine’s Armed Forces can arm one million men. One million of armed Ukrainian soldiers should be accepted as a result of the near future. “We should consider that in our strategic calculations. “The situation in that sense for us will keep worsening. ″As far as the desire to defend their Homeland, according to the understanding that exists in Ukraine, it’s most definitely present there. ″It is a component of an Army’s high combat capability, it’s one of the most important components.” As the TV host and hardline propagandist Olga Skabeyeva tried to undermine his claims, he replied: “The most important thing is remain realistic.” Suggesting that Russia needs to be aware of just how strong the Ukrainian resistance is, he explained: “If you don’t then sooner or later reality will hit you so hard you won’t know what’s hit you. He said the Ukrainian Army’s professionalism stems from its level of training and “its morale and readiness to shed blood” for their country.

Russian Military Commentator Breaks Ranks And Reveals Reality Of War In Ukraine (msn.com)

 

 

[oldschooler]

18 hours ago, NorskTiger said:

Back to Zelensky. I suppose he is fine with Sweden and Finland "extraditing" some hundred Turkish dissident to ErDOGan in order to buy off his VETO for NATO accession. For sure the USA&UK woul dhave no qualms. From that front, I would expect them to be willing to crucify Jesus one more time if that was the prize Turkey asked. 

   Other camels EU&NATO will gobble down to buy off Turkey are likely to be end to weapons sales embargo to Turkey (something the Western arms industry wants anyways, so fine); more support the Turkish Lira (EU will simply absorb more of it); new "refugee" agreeements; oil drilling concessions in the Greek waters (For sure EU will sell off Greece here, they already have wrecked their economy, so no problem) and possibly a blanket EU ban and more aggressive posture towards the PPK and YPG. 

    It will be fun to watch how much juice Erdogan can manage to squeeze out of the warmongers in Brussels, London and DC once this show is over. One thing is for sure; Sweden and FInland are as insignificant in this entire deal as they have been in their "studies" of NATO memberships. 

   The Anglo.Americans are desperate at going in the throat of Russia. I wonder who will be next cannon fodder once they run out of Ukraineans. They STILL do no get that the support for the RUSSIAN stance in RUSSIA is very strong. Western media can print 100000 more articles about all the "victories" of the Ukraine forces and there will be no budge from RUssias side. 

   And NOW Putin has "blood cancer".. LMAO.... Beyond pathetic. 

Your “expectations” as usual are baseless nonsense.

Turkeys usual disgraceful bazaar haggling tactics, and NATO admission process, will be bypassed by separate agreements between UK / US / France / Poland with Sweden / Finland.

Canada & Germany aside, the rest of NATO is fairly useless ineffective anyway (including your tiny nation).  

UK already anticipated Erdogans nonsense by inking a mutual defense treaty with Sweden. 

UK & USA have never “turned over” anyone that THEY were not convinced were actual terrorists or serious criminals. That’s why Assange will never be turned over by UK to USA as, under UK Law, he is neither. 

The one million Ukrainian males of fighting age are defending their violated homeland from unjustified unprovoked invasion.

They clearly then are not “ cannon fodder” ( like the unprepared Russian conscripts) but Patriots and will never “ run out” or surrender. It is clearly only RUSSIA who must “ run out” or “ pull out”. You never make that obvious call though. 

[oldschooler]

15 hours ago, Fanta said:

And mentioning mistakes and losses is how you praise the efforts of an exhausted or needed elsewhere general…. /s 

You like to imagine or seize upon negative connections that do not necessarily exist. Maybe they combined the losses with this notice . Who Cares Anyway ? so what if he made mistakes ? All (average) Field Generals like this guy make mistakes or events outside their control turn against them. Try not making mistakes under constant shelling & political and responsibility pressures at that level . 

[oldschooler]

13 hours ago, Fester said:

You'll have to take up all your complaints with the Norwegian government, who still have not quit NATO.

How did the Cold Response exercise go, anyway? You know the one where Norway and its allies exercised in defending Norway against external threats? It was planned way before the war in Ukraine. 

Norway have contributed bugger all to this war except the expected easy platitudes of political support & NATO solidarity I suppose  ….?? 

[oldschooler]

11 hours ago, Fanta said:

Only Armenia can afford more than 3 different vowels so I think we are safe for now. They’d be a tough opponent at Scrabble but I think that’s about it.

Turkey lashed out & genocided 1.5 million Armenians… out of sheer unprovoked spite ! For Turkey failing in a really stupid WW1 mountain passes attack on Russia ….. in the middle of winter

Armenia can only really support Russia rather than NATO with Turkey in it

[Fester]

25 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

Norway have contributed bugger all to this war except the expected easy platitudes of political support & NATO solidarity I suppose  ….?? 

To be fair, Norway has sent Mistral (SHORAD) systems and M72 light anti-armour weapons, plus other non-lethal aid like helmets and body armour. That does not include 2B NOK worth of various other assistance.

Thankyou Norway. 

 

[oldschooler]

19 hours ago, NorskTiger said:

You have to realize that the West has also made this a path where there is NO exit strategy for neither Putin nor the Russian leadership. The moment Russia flinches a little is the moment the path towards "total victory" and "unconditional surrender" will be forged by the West. 

     I really wish Zelensky would have any independent ability to take care of the best of his people now, but this is not something Langley, State department nor EU would accept. Only total destruction and complete neutering if Russia is their offer. Napoleon would offer better peace terms after he took Moscow and I don't even think German high command in 1942 would be much more demanding than the Wet of today.

   Now, Erdogan may be able to shift the tenson here. Maybe he will see the opprtunity to forge statecraft here instead of going for a pure transactional arrangement with NATO. 

   One may hope. 

Erdogans one NATO job was to seal off the Black Sea to naval warships in & out. Job Done. Erdogans a complete backward  joke in the West. Those early Turkey “facilitations” between the parties were just more Putin nonsense. 
Erdogans attempted trickery with new NATO members is sickening & is already being bypassed by the key NATO players.

Again, it is RUSSIA who stepped into the NATO Bear Trap ; it is only RUSSIA who can step out ; what is the West supposed to do, other than what they’ve  done already ? 

Zelenskys ONLY job is to defend his homeland not to be considering unobtainable “peace” with the devil in his back yard Illusory “ peace” is Putins great obvious deception. Zelenskys “ I Think Not” approach is Correct. 

[oldschooler]

7 hours ago, oldschooler said:

Norwegian Pirates from Farsund started the piracy attacks upon British trading ships running French Blockade. 

Found nothing about UK privateers or any raids on coastal Norway. Your Disinformation it appears.

If they existed they would have been in response to Norway Piracy instigated by France. Get your History straight. UK Privateers licensed by UK Govt to seize or sink enemy assets at sea. 

Any “ rape & pillage” against civilians was not sanctioned by UK Govt. and those doing it would be hung. In fact it seems this did not happen.

Get your facts straight and provide Links (from your FSB liar masters no doubt)  especially for serious vile false repeated accusations. 
 

https://en.visitsorlandet.com/farsund-lista/things-to-do/pirate-town/

 

This response is redirected to NorskTiger

[oldschooler]

20 minutes ago, Fester said:

To be fair, Norway has sent Mistral (SHORAD) systems and M72 light anti-armour weapons, plus other non-lethal aid like helmets and body armour. That does not include 2B NOK worth of various other assistance.

Thankyou Norway. 

Thanks Fester. My question marks were intended to draw out Norways actual (minimal but proportionate ) material contribution from the knowledgeable members here.

[EdwardV]

Even as the Kremlin prepares to take full control of the ruins of Mariupol city, it faces the growing prospect of defeat in its bid to conquer all of Ukraine's eastern Donbas because its badly mauled forces lack the manpower for significant advances. ... "I'm deeply skeptical of their prospects" of conquering all of the Donbas, said Michael Kofman, an expert on the Russian military with CNA, a U.S. nonprofit research and analysis organisation."They're dealing with a dramatically weakened force, probably substantially reduced morale. There's a weak desire by officers to keep trying to prosecute offensives and the Russian political leadership on the whole seems to be procrastinating even as it's facing the strategic defeat itself," he said.

"It's going to be a hard fight. There's going to be a hard fight and potentially a long fight. The Russian military hasn’t done well on the offensive, but it doesn't rout or surrender easily either," said Kofman. The influx of Western heavy guns, including scores of U.S. - and some Canadian - M777 howitzers that have longer range than their Russian equivalents, could give Ukraine an edge in a war that has revolved around artillery duels. "The Ukrainians are starting to outrange the Russians. That means they are able to operate without the threat of counter-battery fire from the Russians," said Muzyka. "Don't get me wrong, the Russians still enjoy overall artillery superiority in terms of numbers, but I'm not sure if the same goes for the quality now... This is an artillery war." Muzyka and Kofman said that even if Putin does send more troops, such a move could take months to organise. "It's very clear they're preparing for at least some kind of measures to call up men with prior service experience. But right now, from what I can tell, Putin is just kicking the can down the road and letting the situation within the Russian military actually get worse," Kofman said. "For now," he said, "this is looking like the Russians' last offensive."

Putin takes Mariupol, but wider Donbas victory slipping from reach (msn.com)

Clearly the West needs to get even more artillery into Ukraine

[Fanta]

1 hour ago, EdwardV said:

Even as the Kremlin prepares to take full control of the ruins of Mariupol city, it faces the growing prospect of defeat in its bid to conquer all of Ukraine's eastern Donbas because its badly mauled forces lack the manpower for significant advances. ... "I'm deeply skeptical of their prospects" of conquering all of the Donbas, said Michael Kofman, an expert on the Russian military with CNA, a U.S. nonprofit research and analysis organisation."They're dealing with a dramatically weakened force, probably substantially reduced morale. There's a weak desire by officers to keep trying to prosecute offensives and the Russian political leadership on the whole seems to be procrastinating even as it's facing the strategic defeat itself," he said.

"It's going to be a hard fight. There's going to be a hard fight and potentially a long fight. The Russian military hasn’t done well on the offensive, but it doesn't rout or surrender easily either," said Kofman. The influx of Western heavy guns, including scores of U.S. - and some Canadian - M777 howitzers that have longer range than their Russian equivalents, could give Ukraine an edge in a war that has revolved around artillery duels. "The Ukrainians are starting to outrange the Russians. That means they are able to operate without the threat of counter-battery fire from the Russians," said Muzyka. "Don't get me wrong, the Russians still enjoy overall artillery superiority in terms of numbers, but I'm not sure if the same goes for the quality now... This is an artillery war." Muzyka and Kofman said that even if Putin does send more troops, such a move could take months to organise. "It's very clear they're preparing for at least some kind of measures to call up men with prior service experience. But right now, from what I can tell, Putin is just kicking the can down the road and letting the situation within the Russian military actually get worse," Kofman said. "For now," he said, "this is looking like the Russians' last offensive."

Putin takes Mariupol, but wider Donbas victory slipping from reach (msn.com)

Clearly the West needs to get even more artillery into Ukraine

Russia is flying 200+ sorties a day. Ukraine is flying 5-10 sorties a day. Ukrainian infrastructure, command posts, equipment depots, supply lines etc etc are getting hit every day. Donbas is an artillery battle however ignoring 200+ missions a day seems disingenuous.

[Fanta]

7 hours ago, EdwardV said:

He continued: “Ukraine’s Armed Forces can arm one million men. One million of armed Ukrainian soldiers should be accepted as a result of the near future.

Armed with pitchforks and riding their trusty tractors into battle. Unless you can arm, integrate and deploy additional troops into the field you may as well not bother. They will be cannon fodder. Any benefit they provide as soldiers will quickly be outweighed by their personal contribution to the fertilizer shortfall.