News Forum - Ukraine’s Zelensky defies Russia’s ultimatum to lay down weapons

[Rookiescot]

5 hours ago, Fanta said:

My point, as anyone with an above primary school of education can understand, is that Ukraine’s export problems are not the worlds problems. Zelenskyy is crying that his exports cannot go by sea therefore the world will starve as a result of Russian aggression and this upcoming global genocide needs to be stopped now! It’s almost amusing that any time Ukraine makes a claim it is never questioned and  becomes an issue the world needs to resolve immediately. . No gas to Poland? Russia so bad. Ukraine turns off some of the gas to Europe? Shhh….. It is lucky that Ukraine won Eurovision, albeit on a sympathy vote,  or Zoom Zelenskyy would be saying the world turned it’s back on the talent of Ukraine. 
ps: I think he will take you off his XMAS card list if he figures you have worked his plan out. 

Wait Fanta. Lets think this through. The world price for wheat sky rockets. Czar Putin is already short of money. So where will Russian wheat supplies be going?

[Fanta]

39 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

You’re not seeing the forest for the trees

I am probably not. It’s my first view of the greenery.

So what is the realistic solution? Load up the UN big  guns to clear the blockade? Even more sanctions that will hurt Russia in the oh so distant future? Russia is the world biggest wheat &’fertilizer exporter. And all that lovely gas. All those essentials put at risk for a piece of Ukraine. We may not like it but it is what it is. Peace after Donbas? Or a UN led escalation? 

[Rookiescot]

Just now, Fanta said:

I am probably not. It’s my first view of the greenery.

So what is the realistic solution? Load up the UN big  guns to clear the blockade? Even more sanctions that will hurt Russia in the oh so distant future? Russia is the world biggest wheat &’fertilizer exporter. And all that lovely gas. All those essentials put at risk for a piece of Ukraine. We may not like it but it is what it is. Peace after Donbas? Or a UN led escalation? 

Your appeals to appease Czar Putin become ever more shrill by the day.

Whats wrong? Are things not going your way in the Ukraine?

[Fanta]

 

Russia says evacuation of wounded Ukrainian troops from Azovstal plant started.

“Сurrently, a ceasefire has been introduced in the area of the plant and a humanitarian corridor has been opened, through which wounded Ukrainian servicemen are taken to a medical facility in Novoazovsk in the Donetsk People's Republic“

https://tass.com/politics/1451567

https://www.barrons.com/news/ceasefire-reached-to-evacuate-wounded-from-azovstal-russian-ministry-01652706607 

 

 

 

[EdwardV]

2 hours ago, Rookiescot said:

Fertilizer is not difficult to make. The problem for western companies is its high volume low profit.

I can guarantee when it becomes high volume medium profit western companies will fill that gap in a heartbeat. Otherwise the Indians, Brazilians and Chinese will simply make up the shortfall.

Yes and no. There are three main types of fertilizer: Nitrogen, phosphate and potash. Nitrogen based fertilizer is made from natural gas, which is incredibly expensive right now. Hence companies and countries are not making it, and not purchasing it. It's just too expensive. The number one exporter of phosphate fertilizer is China and they banned the export last year. They were suppose to start exporting it again, but have extended the ban for this year too. Maybe next year, but who knows. Potash can be made just about anywhere, however it takes a couple of years to set up production. It's also like you say, not very profitable. Between Russia and Belarus they make up the largest exporter of Potash in the world and they are both under sanctions. The number one importer of fertilizer in the world, Brazil. Number two, India. I don't think they will be making up any shortfall.

Problem is, there was already a shortage prior to the loss of fertilizer from Russia and Belarus. There just isn't a quick fix to the problem, it's a 3-4 year process at best (and that's only if China starts selling exporting again). 

[Rookiescot]

8 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

Yes and no. There are three main types of fertilizer: Nitrogen, phosphate and potash. Nitrogen based fertilizer is made from natural gas

There is your first mistake right there.

How Is Nitrogen Produced for Industrial Applications? | GENERON

10 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

The number one exporter of phosphate fertilizer is China and they banned the export last year. They were suppose to start exporting it again, but have extended the ban for this year too. Maybe next year, but who knows.

Second mistake right here.

China Exports of Fertilizers - April 2022 Data - 1996-2021 Historical - May Forecast (tradingeconomics.com)

Then you deflect onto potash.

But here are the largest fertilizer companies in the world. No1 is Australian and No2 is Canadian.

• Largest fertilizer companies by market capitalization 2022 | Statista

 

 

[EdwardV]

2 hours ago, Fanta said:

So what is the realistic solution? Load up the UN big  guns to clear the blockade? Even more sanctions that will hurt Russia in the oh so distant future? Russia is the world biggest wheat &’fertilizer exporter. And all that lovely gas. All those essentials put at risk for a piece of Ukraine. We may not like it but it is what it is. Peace after Donbas? Or a UN led escalation? 

I'm not sure there is a real solution. The UN creating a safe passage for grain shipments is only a partial solution. Of course that's even if there was a will to do so which I don't think there is at the present time. You will have to see millions starving before the UN steps in to force open the ports. It will be too late at that point as Ukraine silos are not made for long term storage. 

Even then it only solves the issue of the existing grain in the silos. There are other issues. Part of Ukraine's grain harvest has already been stolen by Russia. Same with fields being mined and farm equipment stolen or destroyed. Even if the war ended today, the current season's crop hasn't been sowed in large enough volume to help the world. Ukraine right now has gone from a huge exporter of food, to a net importer. 

So I get the feeling you think a peace should be forced on Ukraine in order for Russian wheat, fertilizer and energy exports can start flowing once again? Isn't that rewarding bad behavior?   

[EdwardV]

7 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

here is your first mistake right there.

How Is Nitrogen Produced for Industrial Applications? | GENERON

Nitrogen fertilizers are made from ammonia (NH3) produced by the Haber-Bosch process.[21] In this energy-intensive process, natural gas (CH4) usually supplies the hydrogen, and the nitrogen (N2) is derived from the air. This ammonia is used as a feedstock for all other nitrogen fertilizers, such as anhydrous ammonium nitrate (NH4NO3) and urea (CO(NH2)2).

Fertilizer - Wikipedia

10 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

Second mistake right here.

China Exports of Fertilizers - April 2022 Data - 1996-2021 Historical - May Forecast (tradingeconomics.com)

 

China is banning the export of phosphate, a major component of commercial fertilizer, through 2022.

“Fertilizer prices have increased dramatically in recent years, and the news coming from China will more than likely help this trend continue,” said Theresa Sisung, field crops specialist for the Michigan Farm Bureau. “Farmers should talk to their retailers sooner rather than later to discuss their options for purchasing fertilizer for their 2022 crop needs.”

China halts phosphate exports; fertilizer prices expected to soar (wisfarmer.com)

10 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

Then you deflect onto potash.

Not sure how that is a deflection. Potash is a major source of fertilizer in the world. 

12 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

But here are the largest fertilizer companies in the world. No1 is Australian and No2 is Canadian.

• Largest fertilizer companies by market capitalization 2022 | Statista

 

That's nice, but so what? No doubt they are producing all they can as the price is high and they can make a lot of money. However a fertilizer plant takes years to increase production in anything like what is needed to help solve the current shortage. Never mind that current shortage is well outside the efforts of even the largest of companies to solve. That's not even considering the price increases mean lots of farmers will go without or at the best a lot less fertilizer this year. Crop yields will collapse as a result. That's the other side of the coin, the world wide decrease in usage because of high prices.  

 

[EdwardV]

 

Russia said on Monday that the West should have no illusions that Moscow will simply put up with the Nordic expansion of the U.S.-led NATO military alliance to include Sweden and Finland, casting the move as a mistake that would stoke military tension. Vladimir Putin, Russia's paramount leader since the last day of 1999, has repeatedly cited the post-Soviet enlargement of the NATO alliance eastwards towards Russia's borders as a reason for the invasion of Ukraine.

Ryabkov, who led talks with the United States on a doomed Russian proposal to halt NATO's eastward expansion, said the decisions by Helsinki and Stockholm to join the alliance were a mistake. "The general level of military tension will rise, predictability in this sphere will decrease. It is a shame that common sense is being sacrificed to some phantom provision about what should be done in this unfolding situation," Ryabkov said. Russia has given few clues about what it will do in response to the Nordic enlargement of NATO, saying merely that there would be a "military-technical response".

Russia will not 'simply put up with' NATO's Nordic expansion (msn.com)

So if Russia invaded Ukraine in order to keep NATO from it's border. Besides the fact Finland joining NATO is sweet sweet irony. Wouldn't the addition of Finland in fact argue for the end of Russia's "Special military operation" against Ukraine? Isn't it at this point pretty much a waste of resources? 

I'm pretty sure any raise in military tension has to do with Russian tanks in Ukraine than anything else. Russia has given few clues since they don't have any options. They lack the resources to militarize the border with Finland and even doing so only justifies Finland's actions. They can threaten to send nuclear weapons to the Baltics, but fact is they are already there. They can cut off energy exports, but Finland has already prepared themselves for that eventuality. There just isn't anything Russia can do that would make a difference.   

 

[vlad]

3 hours ago, Fanta said:

Russia says evacuation of wounded Ukrainian troops from Azovstal plant started.

“Сurrently, a ceasefire has been introduced in the area of the plant and a humanitarian corridor has been opened, through which wounded Ukrainian servicemen are taken to a medical facility in Novoazovsk in the Donetsk People's Republic“

https://tass.com/politics/1451567

https://www.barrons.com/news/ceasefire-reached-to-evacuate-wounded-from-azovstal-russian-ministry-01652706607 

lies and fake news even Zelenski has said he cannot save the fighters in the steel plant and there's no way Russian troops will allow them to leave only in body bags. over 600 civilians have now been found in Bucha with most shot execution-style.

[oldschooler]

US Laser Guided Howitzers are in play ! 
After watching a video of Russians getting slaughtered at river crossings near Kharkiv I saw a video of Russian trucks & armor getting picked off on a Donbass highway by pin- point howitzer shells guided from hillside laser spotters. Brilliant. 

[oldschooler]

15 hours ago, EdwardV said:

The destruction wreaked on a Russian battalion as it tried to cross a river in northeastern Ukraine last week is emerging as among the deadliest engagements of the war, with estimates based on publicly available evidence now suggesting that well over 400 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded. And as the scale of what happened comes into sharper focus, the disaster appears to be breaking through the Kremlin’s tightly controlled information bubble. Perhaps most striking, the Russian battlefield failure is resonating with a stable of pro-Russian war bloggers — some of whom are embedded with troops on the front line — who have reliably posted to the social network Telegram with claims of Russian success and Ukrainian cowardice.

“I’ve been keeping quiet for a long time,” Yuri Podolyaka, a war blogger with 2.1 million followers on Telegram, said in a video posted on Friday, saying that he had avoided criticizing the Russian military until now. “The last straw that overwhelmed my patience was the events around Bilohorivka, where due to stupidity — I emphasize, because of the stupidity of the Russian command — at least one battalion tactical group was burned, possibly two.

”Another popular blogger, who goes by Starshe Eddy on Telegram, wrote that the fact that commanders left so much of their force exposed amounted to “not idiocy, but direct sabotage.”

And a third, Vladlen Tatarski, posted that Russia’s eastern offensive was moving slowly not just because of a lack of surveillance drones but also “these generals” and their tactics. “Until we get the last name of the military genius who laid down a B.T.G. by the river and he answers for it publicly, we won’t have had any military reforms,” Mr. Tatarski wrote.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/15/world/europe/pro-russian-war-bloggers-kremlin.html

More interested in the excellent videos now on You Tube which physically detail the destruction of Russian vehicles at rivers and roads by laser- guided pin- point Howitzer shells.

Also check out the military campaign map analysis on Sky & CNN with former NATO Commanders & Strategic Institute Professors.

No interest much in what any Russian sources say. 

[NorskTiger]

On 5/7/2022 at 3:54 AM, oldschooler said:

You don’t understand. WW2 Free Norway exiled Govt. in London had placed all their remaining free resources under UK control.
So yes any of those resources not complying were traitors to their lawful govt. and enemy, subject to corrective military action.

That Danish fleet could not be allowed to fall into Napoleons hands or use,  threatening UK naval supremacy & blockade.

War is not a playground game for children with “ dancing to tunes” or” telling others what to do “. Most serious business of survival & winning & staying free.
 

Whole free countries were recognized as Neutral in WW2 but not remnants of defeated occupied countries.Vichy France fought with Nazis so yes their forces outside France were destroyed by UK who alone at that time fought on against Hitler.

You do know that Norway sends UK every year a giant Xmas Tree in gratitude for UK WW2 support and liberation  ? Do they do same to next door Russia ? No, they don’t. 

  "The Danish fleet could not be allowed to fall into Napoleons hands".... 

 (So therefore the ever-disgusting British empire had to take them instead. Did you even know that Denmakr-Norway was NEUTRAL in this conflict?

   What you are espousing is the typical disgusting Anglo-American arrogance and you even are defending this on a moral high ground!! It is to vomit over. The entire coastline of Norway up to the Russian border were embargoed and plagued by British privateers, which looted villages, killed people, raped women, stole livestock and destroyed communities. Even today, there are countless histories of this over entire Norway. 

   Thank You for reminding me the need to stand up to the utter arrogance and fascist behavior of the (Thank God) fading UK empire. May it rot furher. 

   The Christmas three tradition is a mere gesture from the Royal house,, which has recent historical ties to England due to the old-old kings marriage to a British royalty. AS disgusting and transparanet as it gets. 

 So you are saying that because our politicians send some symbolic tribute to London, the Russian sacrifices of 40000+ soldiers in the campaign to liberate East-Finmark is not ntoeworthy?

    First of all, Russians have nice enough Christmas trees themselves to supply superior decorations and the Russian people have never bothered about phony symbolism. Secondly, I can ensure you that there are hundreds of vital commemorations and markings towards RUssia for what they did during WW2 for us. It is very unlikely my family line would have existed if it were not for the Red army in 1944. Most the UK did to Norway was destroy  our civillian shipping infrastructure (They were typically too cowardly to sink regularly defended German shipping of magnitude) and make life for the civilian population even worse. 

    You portray it as if we Norwegians cater to your shallow of shallowest depiction of Russia bad, let us kiss some more anglo ass. Our politicians are being pressured immensely by EU, Western economies and not the least USA to get ready to bleed for the empire. It is very hard for even one reasonable dissenter  to come out.  However, having said that, if you know people from Trondheim and North, it is not ignorant poodles you find here, but simply people who very well know that USA and UK have nothing good at store for them in case of a conflict and would happily defend us (To the last Norwegian). 

   Everything USA touches turns into death and decay. The UK is mostly insignificant today, but they seem to have an urge to splay their relevance now and then, clearly with the same over-inflated self-importance as you are stating above. 

     I don't support Russia in any war they are waging, but neither is it OUR war to fight against them. You want to fight Russia go on your own and Please stop dragging others into it. 

     

[NorskTiger]

Back to Zelensky. I suppose he is fine with Sweden and Finland "extraditing" some hundred Turkish dissident to ErDOGan in order to buy off his VETO for NATO accession. For sure the USA&UK woul dhave no qualms. From that front, I would expect them to be willing to crucify Jesus one more time if that was the prize Turkey asked. 

   Other camels EU&NATO will gobble down to buy off Turkey are likely to be end to weapons sales embargo to Turkey (something the Western arms industry wants anyways, so fine); more support the Turkish Lira (EU will simply absorb more of it); new "refugee" agreeements; oil drilling concessions in the Greek waters (For sure EU will sell off Greece here, they already have wrecked their economy, so no problem) and possibly a blanket EU ban and more aggressive posture towards the PPK and YPG. 

 

    It will be fun to watch how much juice Erdogan can manage to squeeze out of the warmongers in Brussels, London and DC once this show is over. One thing is for sure; Sweden and FInland are as insignificant in this entire deal as they have been in their "studies" of NATO memberships. 

   The Anglo.Americans are desperate at going in the throat of Russia. I wonder who will be next cannon fodder once they run out of Ukraineans. They STILL do no get that the support for the RUSSIAN stance in RUSSIA is very strong. Western media can print 100000 more articles about all the "victories" of the Ukraine forces and there will be no budge from RUssias side. 

 

   And NOW Putin has "blood cancer".. LMAO.... Beyond pathetic. 

[Fanta]

6 hours ago, EdwardV said:

So I get the feeling you think a peace should be forced on Ukraine in order for Russian wheat, fertilizer and energy exports can start flowing once again? Isn't that rewarding bad behavior?   

It is what it is. I just want them to stop fighting. Zelenskyy has said that Ukraine will not cede any territory to the separatists or to Russia so this will go on for quite some time yet.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-backs-un-push-get-ukraine-grain-back-global-market-2022-05-16/

[Fanta]

“Five buses and an armoured personnel carrier carrying Ukraine's servicemen from the besieged Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol arrived late on Monday in Novoazovsk, a Reuters witness said.“

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/evacuated-azovstal-servicemen-arrive-ukraines-novoazovsk-some-wounded-reuters-2022-05-16/

 

[NorskTiger]

7 minutes ago, Fanta said:

It is what it is. I just want them to stop fighting. Zelenskyy has said that Ukraine will not cede any territory to the separatists or to Russia so this will go on for quite some time yet.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-backs-un-push-get-ukraine-grain-back-global-market-2022-05-16/

You have to realize that the West has also made this a path where there is NO exit strategy for neither Putin nor the Russian leadership. The moment Russia flinches a little is the moment the path towards "total victory" and "unconditional surrender" will be forged by the West. 

     I really wish Zelensky would have any independent ability to take care of the best of his people now, but this is not something Langley, State department nor EU would accept. Only total destruction and complete neutering if Russia is their offer. Napoleon would offer better peace terms after he took Moscow and I don't even think German high command in 1942 would be much more demanding than the Wet of today.

   Now, Erdogan may be able to shift the tenson here. Maybe he will see the opprtunity to forge statecraft here instead of going for a pure transactional arrangement with NATO. 

   One may hope. 

[EdwardV]

28 minutes ago, Fanta said:

It is what it is. I just want them to stop fighting. Zelenskyy has said that Ukraine will not cede any territory to the separatists or to Russia so this will go on for quite some time yet.

Fair enough. 

The UN plan seems to require the permission of Russia. Interesting. 

[EdwardV]

33 minutes ago, NorskTiger said:

You have to realize that the West has also made this a path where there is NO exit strategy for neither Putin nor the Russian leadership. The moment Russia flinches a little is the moment the path towards "total victory" and "unconditional surrender" will be forged by the West. 

"NO" exit? Couldn't Putin declare a unilateral cease fire, followed by a withdraw to 2014 pre-invasion borders? Seems like a fully acceptable exit plan wouldn't you agree?  

Russia flinched a long time ago. When they were forced to retreat from Kyiv, the West thought "wow, Ukraine might actually hold off Russia". All bets were off at that point. Russia's fault, blame them. Putin got himself into this mess, he can get himself out of it. Just end the war, it's really that simple.  

[Fanta]

Zelenskiy had appointed Major General Ihor Tantsyura to take over from Yuriy Halushkin as commander of the Territorial Defence Guard (Ukraine’s Army Reserves). A rare admission of losses by Ukraine seems to be part of these  cause.

”The explosive growth of the structure, especially in conditions of intense combat, is a huge experience, (with)mistakes and achievements. There are successes and, unfortunately, losses,” the ministry said in a statement”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_Defense_Forces_(Ukraine)

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-military-zelenskiy/ukraines-president-replaces-head-of-territorial-defence-forces-idUSKCN2N20WQ 

[birdman]

2 hours ago, EdwardV said:

Putin got himself into this mess, he can get himself out of it.

Yes he got himself and the rest of Russia into this mess but the moment he shows weakness

he will be dead.

Imo he will not (can not) invade any other country,Finland does not have to worry.

[oldschooler]

3 hours ago, NorskTiger said:

  "The Danish fleet could not be allowed to fall into Napoleons hands".... 

 (So therefore the ever-disgusting British empire had to take them instead. Did you even know that Denmakr-Norway was NEUTRAL in this conflict?

   What you are espousing is the typical disgusting Anglo-American arrogance and you even are defending this on a moral high ground!! It is to vomit over. The entire coastline of Norway up to the Russian border were embargoed and plagued by British privateers, which looted villages, killed people, raped women, stole livestock and destroyed communities. Even today, there are countless histories of this over entire Norway. 

   Thank You for reminding me the need to stand up to the utter arrogance and fascist behavior of the (Thank God) fading UK empire. May it rot furher. 

   The Christmas three tradition is a mere gesture from the Royal house,, which has recent historical ties to England due to the old-old kings marriage to a British royalty. AS disgusting and transparanet as it gets. 

 So you are saying that because our politicians send some symbolic tribute to London, the Russian sacrifices of 40000+ soldiers in the campaign to liberate East-Finmark is not ntoeworthy?

    First of all, Russians have nice enough Christmas trees themselves to supply superior decorations and the Russian people have never bothered about phony symbolism. Secondly, I can ensure you that there are hundreds of vital commemorations and markings towards RUssia for what they did during WW2 for us. It is very unlikely my family line would have existed if it were not for the Red army in 1944. Most the UK did to Norway was destroy  our civillian shipping infrastructure (They were typically too cowardly to sink regularly defended German shipping of magnitude) and make life for the civilian population even worse. 

    You portray it as if we Norwegians cater to your shallow of shallowest depiction of Russia bad, let us kiss some more anglo ass. Our politicians are being pressured immensely by EU, Western economies and not the least USA to get ready to bleed for the empire. It is very hard for even one reasonable dissenter  to come out.  However, having said that, if you know people from Trondheim and North, it is not ignorant poodles you find here, but simply people who very well know that USA and UK have nothing good at store for them in case of a conflict and would happily defend us (To the last Norwegian). 

   Everything USA touches turns into death and decay. The UK is mostly insignificant today, but they seem to have an urge to splay their relevance now and then, clearly with the same over-inflated self-importance as you are stating above. 

     I don't support Russia in any war they are waging, but neither is it OUR war to fight against them. You want to fight Russia go on your own and Please stop dragging others into it. 

Your elected free Govt. disagrees.

Your pro- Russia anti- Anglo views have no real traction in Norway population or parliament. 

Russian WW2 campaigns were fought ONLY to benefit Russia.

Norway would be among the first countries to be attacked by Russia. 

Tyrant Napoleon would have taken any neutral fleets in Baltic to use against Free UK. Not Happening. Total War is deadly serious and does not involve trusting your enemy in any way.

UK insignificant only in your hate- filled inferiority- complex mind. 5th largest world economy, massive cultural & political influence, 2nd most powerful military with France.

UK a highly valued ally of Free Nordic countries against Russia. Ask Sweden if UK is “insignificant” after mutual defense treaty signed last week.

[oldschooler]

1 hour ago, Fanta said:

Zelenskiy had appointed Major General Ihor Tantsyura to take over from Yuriy Halushkin as commander of the Territorial Defence Guard (Ukraine’s Army Reserves). A rare admission of losses by Ukraine seems to be part of these  cause.

”The explosive growth of the structure, especially in conditions of intense combat, is a huge experience, (with)mistakes and achievements. There are successes and, unfortunately, losses,” the ministry said in a statement”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_Defense_Forces_(Ukraine)

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-military-zelenskiy/ukraines-president-replaces-head-of-territorial-defence-forces-idUSKCN2N20WQ 

Fresh Wartime Leadership is Common. 
Replaced General is undoubtedly exhausted or needed elsewhere.

This move should not be necessarily or negatively viewed as any “ failure”. 

[Fanta]

The last of the Avostal defenders have been evacuated.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-17/mariupol-ukraine-troop-evacuation-azovstal-steelworks/101072336

For those that don’t believe that MSM is pushing propaganda, please note that the word ”surrender” is never mentioned in the article. Apparently laying down arms and being marched out into enemy hands to be taken to enemy held territory is deemed an evacuation. At least they are safe now.

 

 

 

[Fanta]

5 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

This move should not be necessarily or negatively viewed as any “ failure”. 

And mentioning mistakes and losses is how you praise the efforts of an exhausted or needed elsewhere general…. /s