News Forum - Ukraine’s Zelensky defies Russia’s ultimatum to lay down weapons

[EdwardV]

NATO and the United States say they are confident Turkey will not impede the membership of Finland and Sweden in the Western military alliance, despite Ankara expressing reservations. Turkey laid out demands on Sunday on the sidelines of a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Berlin, saying it wanted the two Nordic countries to end support for Kurdish militant groups present on their territory, and to lift the ban on sales of some arms to Turkey. Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said his talks with Swedish and Finnish counterparts in Berlin had been helpful.

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2022/5/15/turkey-lays-out-demands-as-finland-sweden-seek-nato-membership

I never thought it would be a huge problem, just a question of finding out what Turkey wanted in return for their vote. The Kurdish rebel thing would be at the top of the list, and it seems more weapons. No doubt they still won’t be getting F-35s, but the F-16 deal is now as good as inked. Wonder what else will be on the shopping list? 

[Fanta]

19 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

Wonder what else will be on the shopping list?

Some wheat of dubious origin? 

[EdwardV]

The destruction wreaked on a Russian battalion as it tried to cross a river in northeastern Ukraine last week is emerging as among the deadliest engagements of the war, with estimates based on publicly available evidence now suggesting that well over 400 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded. And as the scale of what happened comes into sharper focus, the disaster appears to be breaking through the Kremlin’s tightly controlled information bubble. Perhaps most striking, the Russian battlefield failure is resonating with a stable of pro-Russian war bloggers — some of whom are embedded with troops on the front line — who have reliably posted to the social network Telegram with claims of Russian success and Ukrainian cowardice.

“I’ve been keeping quiet for a long time,” Yuri Podolyaka, a war blogger with 2.1 million followers on Telegram, said in a video posted on Friday, saying that he had avoided criticizing the Russian military until now. “The last straw that overwhelmed my patience was the events around Bilohorivka, where due to stupidity — I emphasize, because of the stupidity of the Russian command — at least one battalion tactical group was burned, possibly two.

”Another popular blogger, who goes by Starshe Eddy on Telegram, wrote that the fact that commanders left so much of their force exposed amounted to “not idiocy, but direct sabotage.”

And a third, Vladlen Tatarski, posted that Russia’s eastern offensive was moving slowly not just because of a lack of surveillance drones but also “these generals” and their tactics. “Until we get the last name of the military genius who laid down a B.T.G. by the river and he answers for it publicly, we won’t have had any military reforms,” Mr. Tatarski wrote.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/15/world/europe/pro-russian-war-bloggers-kremlin.html

 

[EdwardV]

3 hours ago, Fanta said:

Some wheat of dubious origin? 

I would if them. No doubt something could be worked out even if it’s not Ukrainian wheat. The #2, 3 and 4 wheat exporters are the US, Canada and France (after Russia at #1). Although Ukrainian wheat would kill two birds with one stone. 
 

I had read the west doesn’t think they can road and rail more than 20% of Ukraine’s stored wheat. They need to open the port … 

[Fanta]

39 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

I had read the west doesn’t think they can road and rail more than 20% of Ukraine’s stored wheat. They need to open the port … 

Who is they?  Global hunger would be a good excuse to escalate but while Johnny Appleseed can still buy a Big Mac for a couple of bucks forcibly opening Odessa’s ports would be a hard political sell in the US. 

“The main destination of Wheat exports from Ukraine are: Egypt ($1.22B), Indonesia ($544M), Pakistan ($496M), Bangladesh ($295M), and Lebanon ($239M).”

https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/wheat/reporter/ukr

Egypt recently refused docking for some Russian ships with wheat so they aren’t  fainting from hunger just yet. And let’s be brutal here, no-one who is anyone gives a hoot about Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Lebanon & crew. 

 

[EdwardV]

43 minutes ago, Fanta said:

Who is they?  Global hunger would be a good excuse to escalate but while Johnny Appleseed can still buy a Big Mac for a couple of bucks forcibly opening Odessa’s ports would be a hard political sell in the US. 

The “they” is the UN: 

David Beasley, head of the United Nations World Food Programme, is pleading with Russian President Vladimir Putin to reopen Ukraine's Black Sea ports before global calamity strikes. "Millions of people around the world will die because these ports are being blocked," Beasley told CNN during a conference on Thursday.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/05/12/economy/food-crisis-ukraine-putin-un/index.html

Commodities don’t work on the same supply chain as other products. There is only a limited supply of grain, about 3-4 months in most counties at any given time. So taking the #5 exporter out of the chain doesn’t hurt supply today, they start to dry up in another couple of months. However what it does effect today is price. It’s why: 

The benchmark wheat index rose as much as 5.9% in Chicago, the highest it has been in two months. The export ban comes as a heatwave has hit India's wheat crops, taking domestic prices to a record high. Wheat prices have soared by around 60% on world markets this year, pushing up the cost of everything from bread to noodles.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61461093
 

Wheat producing countries are starting to limit or outright ban exports. Russia limited exports months ago, some smaller exporters have since and yesterday India just banned them for all but existing orders and clients. While I agree with your sediment, the problem with wheat is just beginning. People are having a problem affording it today, they will start having a problem finding it tomorrow. It’s going to get a lot worse sooner than later. 

[Fanta]

The 5th largest exporter of wheat cannot export this year or next year. The global market can fill the majority of that shortfall. If Zelenskyy wants Odessa open again Ukraine will have to offer to give something up. We know what that something is. 

[Fester]

2 hours ago, Fanta said:

Who is they?  Global hunger would be a good excuse to escalate but while Johnny Appleseed can still buy a Big Mac for a couple of bucks forcibly opening Odessa’s ports would be a hard political sell in the US. 

“The main destination of Wheat exports from Ukraine are: Egypt ($1.22B), Indonesia ($544M), Pakistan ($496M), Bangladesh ($295M), and Lebanon ($239M).”

https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/wheat/reporter/ukr

Egypt recently refused docking for some Russian ships with wheat so they aren’t  fainting from hunger just yet. And let’s be brutal here, no-one who is anyone gives a hoot about Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Lebanon & crew. 

No-one who is anyone gives a hoot? A typical Haw-Haw line that confirms his bigotry. 

[Fanta]

4 minutes ago, Fester said:

No-one who is anyone gives a hoot? A typical Haw-Haw that confirms his bigotry. 

Over 8 million people die of hunger and hunger related diseases every year. Many, many millions more suffer from food insecurity. Covid has killed 6 million in 2 years and  most of the world banded together to try to control it. And you think a shortfall, at an absolute maximum, of 7% of the world’s wheat will suddenly cause people to act.  Your ignorance is staggering.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Hunger_Index

https://www.theworldcounts.com/challenges/people-and-poverty/hunger-and-obesity

[Fester]

40 minutes ago, Fanta said:

The 5th largest exporter of wheat cannot export this year or next year. The global market can fill the majority of that shortfall. If Zelenskyy wants Odessa open again Ukraine will have to offer to give something up. We know what that something is. 

Not so fast, Dr. Doom. Some Ukrainian wheat may still be able to be moved out via the Baltic this year and in the future

https://fortune.com/2022/05/10/ukraine-wheat-exports-russian-black-sea-port-blockade/#:~:text=Ukraine was the world's sixth,been blocked from exiting Ukraine.

Now the Russians are making everything difficult but they do not control, nor significantly influence, at least half of the main Ukrainian wheat growing areas, where there are 7 million hectares of it needing a way out. For the Russians to try to stop all Ukrainian wheat production, replanting and exports then they would need to add considerably to their conventional forces and still risk being wiped out completely on open ground. If this is not to remain a conventional war, then wheat will not be a priority! 

Ukraine produces 10% of global wheat and is number six. If some of the Ukrainian wheat can reach the world market and if the other major producers increase their production just slightly, then the shortage can be managed.

Everyone, who is anyone, are aware of this problem and they are working on solutions. Haw- haw! 

[Fanta]

10 minutes ago, Fester said:

Everyone, who is anyone, are aware of this problem and they are working on solutions. Haw- haw! 

Very brave of you to continue the fight in Ukraine without a second thought of the real costs to the Ukrainian people, their economy or the rest of the world. “Peace be damned!” says the armchair warrior “I will fight to the last Ukrainian!” And you have the audacity to call me a bigot. 

ps: your “comment” is littered with factual inaccuracies and incorrect assumptions. Too many to correct and I can’t be bothered as experience has proven that you refuse to learn and dismiss any contrary opinions as Putin loving. 

[Fester]

14 minutes ago, Fanta said:

Over 8 million people die of hunger and hunger related diseases every year. Many, many millions more suffer from food insecurity. Covid has killed 6 million in 2 years and  most of the world banded together to try to control it. And you think a shortfall, at an absolute maximum, of 7% of the world’s wheat will suddenly cause people to act.  Your ignorance is staggering.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Hunger_Index

https://www.theworldcounts.com/challenges/people-and-poverty/hunger-and-obesity

 

15 minutes ago, Fanta said:

Over 8 million people die of hunger and hunger related diseases every year. Many, many millions more suffer from food insecurity. Covid has killed 6 million in 2 years and  most of the world banded together to try to control it. And you think a shortfall, at an absolute maximum, of 7% of the world’s wheat will suddenly cause people to act.  Your ignorance is staggering.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Hunger_Index

https://www.theworldcounts.com/challenges/people-and-poverty/hunger-and-obesity

Ah. You've diverted straight in to the problem of global hunger, which, while sad and unfortunate, has been around in different forms and locations for about as long as we have. The issue being discussed here was that of global wheat production and supply. The ignorance is all yours and it has just guided you into yet another deflection. But we are used to that, of course. 

[Fester]

7 minutes ago, Fanta said:

Very brave of you to continue the fight in Ukraine without a second thought of the real costs to the Ukrainian people, their economy or the rest of the world. “Peace be damned!” says the armchair warrior “I will fight to the last Ukrainian!” And you have the audacity to call me a bigot. 

ps: your “comment” is littered with factual inaccuracies and incorrect assumptions. Too many to correct and I can’t be bothered as experience has proven that you refuse to learn and dismiss any contrary opinions as Putin loving. 

I'm in Thailand, not Ukraine. The Ukrainian people have evidently decided for themselves that they want to fight for their country and that might literally mean to the last man, I don't know but it is their decision and that is the way it should be. I just support them but I'm sure they are aware of all the costs and don't really care what I think. 

So. To be clear. You are saying that Ukraine needs to surrender in order to export a few loaves of Hovis?

And if you're too lazy (or unable) to show any of my posts to be inaccurate, then I should keep schtum.

 

[Fanta]

12 minutes ago, Fester said:

Ah. You've diverted straight in to the problem of global hunger, which, while sad and unfortunate, has been around in different forms and locations for about as long as we have. The issue being discussed here was that of global wheat production and supply. The ignorance is all yours and it has just guided you into yet another deflection. But we are used to that, of course. 

My point, as anyone with an above primary school of education can understand, is that Ukraine’s export problems are not the worlds problems. Zelenskyy is crying that his exports cannot go by sea therefore the world will starve as a result of Russian aggression and this upcoming global genocide needs to be stopped now! It’s almost amusing that any time Ukraine makes a claim it is never questioned and  becomes an issue the world needs to resolve immediately. . No gas to Poland? Russia so bad. Ukraine turns off some of the gas to Europe? Shhh….. It is lucky that Ukraine won Eurovision, albeit on a sympathy vote,  or Zoom Zelenskyy would be saying the world turned it’s back on the talent of Ukraine. 
ps: I think he will take you off his XMAS card list if he figures you have worked his plan out. 

[Fester]

27 minutes ago, Fanta said:

My point, as anyone with an above primary school of education can understand, is that Ukraine’s export problems are not the worlds problems. Zelenskyy is crying that his exports cannot go by sea therefore the world will starve as a result of Russian aggression and this upcoming global genocide needs to be stopped now! It’s almost amusing that any time Ukraine makes a claim it is never questioned and  becomes an issue the world needs to resolve immediately. . No gas to Poland? Russia so bad. Ukraine turns off some of the gas to Europe? Shhh….. It is lucky that Ukraine won Eurovision, albeit on a sympathy vote,  or Zoom Zelenskyy would be saying the world turned it’s back on the talent of Ukraine. 
ps: I think he will take you off his XMAS card list if he figures you have worked his plan out. 

Your imaginary point about Ukraine’s export problems has not been made and Zelensky is not crying. Your claims are regularly questioned because you can't back them up and the rest of your output is just general carp and insults. As you cite the festive season, I'll just say you're more full of it than a Christmas turkey.

Gobble gobble.

[Fanta]

6 minutes ago, Fester said:

Zelensky is not crying. 

“Ukraine’s president said that trade at the country’s ports was at a standstill and urged the international community to take immediate steps to end a Russian blockade to allow wheat shipments and prevent a global food crisis.”
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3177138/ukraine-calls-international-moves-unblock-ports-prevent-global

7 minutes ago, Fester said:

Your claims are regularly questioned because you can't back them up

Any statements I claim are facts are supported by links. Have you ever even posted a link? I cannot recall any. You seem to just say “No, no, no” and that’s the extent of your fact finding and “convincing” argument. Until you bother to do some basic research and post some links to support your claims I will ignore your “input” as it rarely leads to learning, only frustration.

[Fester]

38 minutes ago, Fanta said:

“Ukraine’s president said that trade at the country’s ports was at a standstill and urged the international community to take immediate steps to end a Russian blockade to allow wheat shipments and prevent a global food crisis.”
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3177138/ukraine-calls-international-moves-unblock-ports-prevent-global

Any statements I claim are facts are supported by links. Have you ever even posted a link? I cannot recall any. You seem to just say “No, no, no” and that’s the extent of your fact finding and “convincing” argument. Until you bother to do some basic research and post some links to support your claims I will ignore your “input” as it rarely leads to learning, only frustration.

Disagree. Most of your posted statements are not facts and not supported by links.

After the fact, you hurry to slip some in now but we do notice, you know. 

[Fanta]

17 minutes ago, Fester said:

Disagree. Most of your posted statements are not facts and not supported by links.

What is not clear in what I wrote?
”Any statements I claim are facts are supported by links.”
You need to learn to differentiate between an opinion and a statement of fact. 

ps: links by myself just on this page = 5
      links by yourself on any page = 0

[oldschooler]

10 hours ago, EdwardV said:

NATO and the United States say they are confident Turkey will not impede the membership of Finland and Sweden in the Western military alliance, despite Ankara expressing reservations. Turkey laid out demands on Sunday on the sidelines of a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Berlin, saying it wanted the two Nordic countries to end support for Kurdish militant groups present on their territory, and to lift the ban on sales of some arms to Turkey. Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said his talks with Swedish and Finnish counterparts in Berlin had been helpful.

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2022/5/15/turkey-lays-out-demands-as-finland-sweden-seek-nato-membership

I never thought it would be a huge problem, just a question of finding out what Turkey wanted in return for their vote. The Kurdish rebel thing would be at the top of the list, and it seems more weapons. No doubt they still won’t be getting F-35s, but the F-16 deal is now as good as inked. Wonder what else will be on the shopping list? 

Disgraceful Blackmail & Vote Hawking from uncivilized Turkey ….as if they are selling a rug or coffee pot in the soukTheir authoritarian issues are Nothing to do with NATO Security. No civilized country would have these issues anyway and would never link them like this.  

We also had this type of underhand “trading” nonsense from Iran linking some 40 year old repayment to release of a British Iranian. As Turkey is clearly a Putin - style authoritarian regime they surely no longer qualify for NATO membership. 

[EdwardV]

6 hours ago, Fanta said:

The 5th largest exporter of wheat cannot export this year or next year. The global market can fill the majority of that shortfall. If Zelenskyy wants Odessa open again Ukraine will have to offer to give something up. We know what that something is. 

It might be longer at least partially. The fields are littered with unexploded ordnance. Same with metal. That needs to be cleared and until then yields will suffer. 
 

Where do you get the idea the global market can fill the shortfall? 
 

Ukraine is offering Russia something, Neptune missiles. If something is to be done, It will be from outside the conflict. Im not sure there will be, but if it is it won’t be lead by Ukraine. 

[EdwardV]

5 hours ago, Fanta said:

And you think a shortfall, at an absolute maximum, of 7% of the world’s wheat will suddenly cause people to act.  Your ignorance is staggering.

You’re not seeing the forest for the trees. It’s not just the shortfall, it’s the rise it prices which is much greater in comparison. Poor people won’t be able to afford bread, and in many parts of the world that’s the bulk of their calories. The last time wheat had a large increase in price lead to the Arab spring. This time will be so much worse. 
 

Keep in mind the problem today isn’t just the lack of wheat. This conflict and some other issues have lead to a huge lack of fertilizer. The collapse of yields in wheat and other commodities will be felt across the globe. 

[vlad]

Oh dear, its all gone tits up for Vlad in the second city of Kharkiv according to the Beeb Ukrainian forces are on the border of Russia after forcing Russian forces away from Kharkiv. If it is correct that means Putin's boy army has failed in taking 2 Cities and being kicked out of that region altogether. Even worse they can't even go to Macc's for a big Mack as McDonald's has wound up all their fast-food outlets in Russia.

[Rookiescot]

5 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

You’re not seeing the forest for the trees. It’s not just the shortfall, it’s the rise it prior which is much greater in comparison. Poor people won’t be able to afford bread, and in many parts of the world that’s the bulk of their calories. The last time wheat had a large increase in price lead to the Arab spring. This time will be so much worse. 
 

Keep in mind the problem today isn’t just the lack of wheat. This conflict and some other issues have lead to a huge lack of fertilizer. The collapse of yields in wheat and other commodities will be felt across the globe. 

Fertilizer is not difficult to make. The problem for western companies is its high volume low profit.

I can guarantee when it becomes high volume medium profit western companies will fill that gap in a heartbeat. Otherwise the Indians, Brazilians and Chinese will simply make up the shortfall.

[Rookiescot]

5 hours ago, Transam said:

Yes Frazer....

Pack that in you. Pure stereotyping. 

Putin is doomed though. 

[Fester]

10 minutes ago, vlad said:

Oh dear, its all gone tits up for Vlad in the second city of Kharkiv according to the Beeb Ukrainian forces are on the border of Russia after forcing Russian forces away from Kharkiv. If it is correct that means Putin's boy army has failed in taking 2 Cities and being kicked out of that region altogether. Even worse they can't even go to Macc's for a big Mack as McDonald's has wound up all their fast-food outlets in Russia.

Yep. No buns either.