News Forum - Ukraine’s Zelensky defies Russia’s ultimatum to lay down weapons

[Fanta]

6 hours ago, EdwardV said:

While I still think it’s Russia’s war to lose, I no longer think it’s a given they will win. They still need to mobilize

The longer this goes on the more difficult it will become for Russia. Based on troop movements it seems likely that Russia will need to call up some of it’s reserves to at least backfill all the troops no longer based inside of Russia. Russia and Ukraine are not releasing any believable equipment and casualty loss figures, so it is simply guesswork to claim that either side is suffering big enough losses to need more soldiers rushed to the fronts.

[EdwardV]

24 minutes ago, Fanta said:

You still believe that Russia want to conquer Ukraine in it’s entirety? If so, why isn’t Russia pounding away at Kyiv? We will see after Donbas.

Yes I still do believe that. Even if its increasing clear it will have to be a two part plan. Part one now, part two after Russia breaks whatever peace treaty they agree too. 
 

Russia can’t pound away at Kyiv anymore since they were driven out of artillery range. 
 

[Fanta]

22 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

Russia can’t pound away at Kyiv anymore since they were driven out of artillery range.

The Russians still send the occasional reminder to Kyiv and more distant parts of Ukraine. More likely is that Russia is wary of disrupting a photoshoot  McConnell and a pack of other Republicans are visiting Kyiv today.
 

[EdwardV]

40 minutes ago, Fanta said:

More likely is that Russia is wary of disrupting a photoshoot  McConnell and a pack of other Republicans are visiting Kyiv today.

They aren’t in session, and traditionally travel the globe on taxpayer paid photo shoots this time of year. It was nice enough of Ukraine to host them. I’m sure they will have some gifts to hand out to show their appreciation. 

[Fanta]

8 hours ago, EdwardV said:

You know those who are “Russian speakers” and were expected to side with Russia in an invasion. I bet they don’t feel the same about Russia anymore either. 

You mean like these people? I’d believe what comes out of their mouths over the opinions of Internet pollsters. 

 

[BigHewer]

37 minutes ago, Fanta said:

You mean like these people? I’d believe what comes out of their mouths over the opinions of Internet pollsters. 

And I don’t believe anything that comes out of Patrick Lancaster’s mouth. Each to their own, I suppose.

[Rookiescot]

57 minutes ago, Fanta said:

You mean like these people? I’d believe what comes out of their mouths over the opinions of Internet pollsters. 

Lancaster is a total fraud. Now you can argue the MSM lies sometimes but he lies ALL the time.

[Fanta]

Add the language component to the following, subtract negative feelings about the war with a sprinkle of hope from no longer living under the shadow of war leading to better economic conditions and the people probably still don’t care either way.

“In our January Donbas surveys, half of the respondents, regardless of whether they lived in either government- or non-government-controlled areas of the Donbas, agreed that it does not matter where they live, whether in Russia or Ukraine (51.8 percent agree in the government-controlled area and 52.6 percent agree in the separatist republics).”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/17/russia-wants-recognize-independence-two-eastern-ukraine-republics-what-do-people-there-think/

[Rookiescot]

2 hours ago, Fanta said:

Add the language component to the following, subtract negative feelings about the war with a sprinkle of hope from no longer living under the shadow of war leading to better economic conditions and the people probably still don’t care either way.

“In our January Donbas surveys, half of the respondents, regardless of whether they lived in either government- or non-government-controlled areas of the Donbas, agreed that it does not matter where they live, whether in Russia or Ukraine (51.8 percent agree in the government-controlled area and 52.6 percent agree in the separatist republics).”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/17/russia-wants-recognize-independence-two-eastern-ukraine-republics-what-do-people-there-think/

Oddly you failed to say WHEN this survey was carried out.

It was in January. Before the illegal invasion started.

Do you seriously think people who have lost their homes and loved ones because Czar Putin decided to bomb some liberation into them STILL hold the same views?

[Fanta]

2 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

Oddly you failed to say WHEN this survey was carried out.

It was in January. Before the illegal invasion started.

Do you seriously think people who have lost their homes and loved ones because Czar Putin decided to bomb some liberation into them STILL hold the same views?

Nothing odd about it at all. Did you expect a door to door poll in a war zone? Or perhaps a phone call between trips to the bunker -“Is now a good time?”
Newsflash for you: the shells are flying in both directions. And the war has been going on there for 8 years. Just yesterday you said it was OK that the Ukrainians were bombing some liberation into Donbas residents. How fickle you are… 

[Rookiescot]

6 minutes ago, Fanta said:

Nothing odd about it at all. Did you expect a door to door poll in a war zone? Or perhaps a phone call between trips to the bunker -“Is now a good time?”
Newsflash for you: the shells are flying in both directions. And the war has been going on there for 8 years. Just yesterday you said it was OK that the Ukrainians were bombing some liberation into Donbas residents. How fickle you are… 

I know what you are doing here. You are laying the groundwork for when Czar Putin announces a poll has been carried out and everyone wants to join Russia.

Its not going to work.

So answer the question. Do you think all those people still have the same view after having lost their homes and loved ones to Czar Putins thugs?

Yes or no will do.

[Rookiescot]

9 minutes ago, Fanta said:

Just yesterday you said it was OK that the Ukrainians were bombing some liberation into Donbas residents. How fickle you are…

Read it again. I said Czar Putin and his thugs were bombing some liberation into them.

[Fanta]

7 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

So answer the question. Do you think all those people still have the same view after having lost their homes and loved ones to Czar Putins thugs?

Yes or no will do.

If only thing were as simple as you portray them to be. You choose to ignore the fact that this conflict has been going on for 8 years and that this is just more of the same albeit on a bigger scale. The separatists may welcome the Russians as liberators as may well the minority of Eastern Ukrainians. The point is that you cannot know that and neither can I. Yet you claim to know that all Eastern Ukrainians will rebel against having a Russian flag waved above their cities, towns and villages. Did the BBC tell you that? 

[Rookiescot]

1 minute ago, Fanta said:

If only thing were as simple as you portray them to be. You choose to ignore the fact that this conflict has been going on for 8 years and that this is just more of the same albeit on a bigger scale. The separatists may welcome the Russians as liberators as may well the minority of Eastern Ukrainians. The point is that you cannot know that and neither can I. Yet you claim to know that all Eastern Ukrainians will rebel against having a Russian flag waved above their cities, towns and villages. Did the BBC tell you that? 

No you are simply ignoring facts. That poll was conducted BEFORE Czar Putins illegal invasion. It is now meaningless and provides no justification for anything.

Do you believe people still hold the same opinion as shown in that poll yes or no?

[Fanta]

19 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

Read it again. I said Czar Putin and his thugs were bombing some liberation into them.

No you didn’t know. The video was about Ukraine shelling civilian areas and you wrote that they needed some liberation bombed into them. I remember because I laughed at the comment. 

[Rookiescot]

1 minute ago, Fanta said:

No you didn’t know. The video was about Ukraine shelling civilian areas and you wrote that they needed some liberation bombed into them. I remember because I laughed at the comment. 

Read the full comment again.

[Rookiescot]

8 minutes ago, Fanta said:

No you didn’t know. The video was about Ukraine shelling civilian areas and you wrote that they needed some liberation bombed into them. I remember because I laughed at the comment. 

I found my comment. It was not in reply to any video or comment.

Its was simply a sarcastic remark. Obviously sarcasm is lost on you though as it requires some independence of thought.

[EdwardV]

 

Russia has likely lost one-third of its ground combat forces in Ukraine and the forces who remain are depleted and have been unable to make any territorial progress in recent weeks, British intelligence officials said early Sunday.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/russia-lost-one-third-combat-forces-ukraine-uk-intel-defense-ministry.am

 

Ukrainian forces are on the counteroffensive near the Russian-held town of Izium, the governor of Kharkiv region said on Saturday, striking at a key axis of Russia's assault on eastern Ukraine. A major and successful counteroffensive on that Russian line of advance would deal a serious setback for Moscow in the Battle for the Donbas, a region in Ukraine's east that Russia has said it wants to capture completely.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-presses-counteroffensive-key-russian-line-assault-governor-2022-05-14/
 

Well those two stories don’t make things look good for Russia going forward. 

 

[Fanta]

50 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

Well those two stories don’t make things look good for Russia going forward. 

Russia deployed 150,000 and have lost 50,000? Huge losses. 
Russians are moving forward at Donbas, according to Kyiv. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frontlines-moving-battle-donbas-ukraine-mounts-counter-offensive-2022-05-15/

a useful map. Note the river next to Kharkiv. Makes it clear where Ukraine will/won’t be counter-attacking. 

Edited May 15, 2022 by Fanta
Added map

[Rookiescot]

12 minutes ago, Fanta said:

Russia deployed 150,000 and have lost 50,000? Huge losses. 
Russians are moving forward at Donbas, according to Kyiv. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frontlines-moving-battle-donbas-ukraine-mounts-counter-offensive-2022-05-15/

a useful map. Note the river next to Kharkiv. Makes it clear where Ukraine will/won’t be counter-attacking. 

Did the BBC tell you that?

[EdwardV]

3 minutes ago, Fanta said:

Russia deployed 150,000 and have lost 50,000? Huge losses. 
Russians are moving forward at Donbas, according to Kyiv. 

One does not preclude the other. As Russia continues to concentrate its remaining forces they will outnumber the localized Ukrainian defenders. It’s expected some level of advance will happen. However it’s expected to be slow, incremental and uneven. Pretty much what’s been seen the last two weeks. 
 

The question is will Ukraine’s now two counter offensives have any impact on Russia moving forward in Donbas. The attack in Kharkiv threatens the Donbas supply lines from the north. The attack just north of Izyum threatens those same supply lines further south. 

[Fanta]

10 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

The question is will Ukraine’s now two counter offensives have any impact on Russia moving forward in Donbas. The attack in Kharkiv threatens the Donbas supply lines from the north. The attack just north of Izyum threatens those same supply lines further south. 

Two counter offensives? Kharkiv has the river and the bridges are out so it would be a hard work to erect/float (?) pontoons and then push the Russians back across the border. Better to hold the Russians off and not cross the river and push hard at Izyum? 

[Fester]

2 hours ago, Fanta said:

If only thing were as simple as you portray them to be. You choose to ignore the fact that this conflict has been going on for 8 years and that this is just more of the same albeit on a bigger scale. The separatists may welcome the Russians as liberators as may well the minority of Eastern Ukrainians. The point is that you cannot know that and neither can I. Yet you claim to know that all Eastern Ukrainians will rebel against having a Russian flag waved above their cities, towns and villages. Did the BBC tell you that? 

This is now far exceeds "more of the same". This has been an open Russian invasion of Ukraine, which might have seen the whole country beaten and surrendered, if the defence of it by the military and the government had not been so impressive. 

[Rookiescot]

55 minutes ago, Fanta said:

Two counter offensives? Kharkiv has the river and the bridges are out so it would be a hard work to erect/float (?) pontoons and then push the Russians back across the border. Better to hold the Russians off and not cross the river and push hard at Izyum? 

You keep banging on about there rivers and bridges. I have told you several times the Ukrainians will push east of Kharkiv in order to isolate Izyum. They will probably head for the town of Kupiansk. This cuts Russias GLOC's off and a huge part of the Russian offensive.

Another key area is Kherson where the Ukrainians are again making ground. If they take that then again another huge part of the Russian offensive is cut off.

It also open up a drive towards the Crimea. Taking the land bridges there once again cuts off supply lines critical to the Russian offensive. 

Stop listening to crackpots on youtube and have a look at a map.

[EdwardV]

1 hour ago, Fanta said:

Better to hold the Russians off and not cross the river and push hard at Izyum

Absolutely. However even if Ukraine doesn’t cross at Kharkiv, just the threat to do so ties up Russian forces. Same thing with Ukraine in areas where Russian isn’t conducting offensive actions. The Ukrainians still need to defend the area.