News Forum - Ukraine’s Zelensky defies Russia’s ultimatum to lay down weapons

[Fanta]

21 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

Too late already in that sense for entire Russian top leadership already fully implicated in clear war crimes. 

Same as Chechnya. Georgia, Syria etc etc - no one will give a toss a few years from now and, apart from much hand wringing, nothing will be done. Same shit, different day. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_war_crimes

[EdwardV]

28 minutes ago, Fanta said:

One Polish boot into Belarus or Western Ukraine could mean a conflict turns into a declared war.

Just to run down the rabbit hole. Ignoring Belarus since that’s obvious. You are saying if Polish army units forward deployed into western Ukraine, say on the pretense of protecting civilians. Russia would declare war on Poland? 

[Fanta]

34 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

Just to run down the rabbit hole. Ignoring Belarus since that’s obvious. You are saying if Polish army units forward deployed into western Ukraine, say on the pretense of protecting civilians. Russia would declare war on Poland? 

A rabbit hole opens to a rabbit warren with it’s many twists and turns ;-)

Any Polish involvement regarding protection of civilians would have to be declared a NATO peacekeeping mission?  I’d say that was a hands off situation for Russia. I was thinking about military intervention. For example Polish SAM operators on the ground protecting the evacuation routes for civilians aka the rail system and bridges, roads etc. 

 

[EdwardV]

6 minutes ago, Fanta said:

Any Polish involvement regarding protection of civilians would have to be declared a NATO peacekeeping mission?  I’d say that was a hands off situation for Russia. I was thinking about military intervention. For example Polish SAM operators on the ground protecting the evacuation routes for civilians aka the rail system and bridges, roads etc

Not necessarily , I could see Poland acting independently. No way would NATO agree but that might not stop Poland anyway. 
 

Would Poland deploying into western Ukraine and only operating defensively cause Russia to declare war? After all Russia isn’t at war with Ukraine (yeah I know), so they don’t have the right to say Poland can’t enter. Especially if invited by Ukraine. therefore as long as Poland isn’t attacking Russian units are they automatically a belligerent? A fuzzy line I will admit. 

[Fanta]

1 minute ago, EdwardV said:

Not necessarily , I could see Poland acting independently. No way would NATO agree but that might not stop Poland anyway. 
 

Would Poland deploying into western Ukraine and only operating defensively cause Russia to declare war? After all Russia isn’t at war with Ukraine (yeah I know), so they don’t have the right to say Poland can’t enter. Especially if invited by Ukraine. therefore as long as Poland isn’t attacking Russian units are they automatically a belligerent? A fuzzy line I will admit.  

Assuming Poland are operating to defend only civilians in designated non conflict areas then Russia shouldn’t declare war and have no reason to declare Poland a belligerent. The Red Cross and crew haven’t reported any casualties to date. Sales of Polish sausages may fall in Russia - yet another economic victim of war. 

[Alavan]

19 hours ago, Fester said:

Looks like this shows the aftermath of the river crossing. What a mess!

I wonder if they've managed to get some of their new presents in range?

“A bridge to far” part 2.

[Fester]

9 hours ago, Fanta said:

Not possible since Ukraine decided to fight the battles inside the cities. It’s a smart move to defend inside a urban environment where enemy tanks have limited visibility & movement.  And Ukraine gets to claim that civilians are being attacked. It’s a win win for Ukraine, except for the civilians - the cheapest cannon fodder.

It's not a question of being smart. Ukraine decided it had to fight battles that were initiated by Russia! Some fighting is inside towns and cities but most is not. In case you hadn't noticed, urban environments are often the only means of cover, in a country with many large rural areas devoid of forests. Civilians were given the opportunity to evacuate ages ago and most that are being attacked are the in wider areas already taken by Russia. Any civilians that have become "cannon fodder" are dead because of Putin, nobody else.

[Fester]

9 hours ago, Fanta said:

People seem to believe that no-one knew an attack was coming in n the Donbas region. Seriously? Donbas has been in a state of war for 7+ years. The defenses there have been built slowly and surely for years with considerable input from the US. Minefields to force tanks into pre determined paths, artillery zeroed into those paths, dug in defenses, pre mapped killing zones - that place would be a nightmare to try to attack. And that is why it is mainly an artillery battle. Ukraine has the majority of their army there. Overrun in a few weeks? Impossible. Claiming the advance is slowed due to the Russians receiving repeated ass kickings denies the realities of the battleground.

What people? Seriously? No proof. No links. No idea! 

[Fester]

8 hours ago, Fanta said:

Bypassing a city to capture another objective might work in a blitzkrieg type attack which is what we are not seeing here. Leaving 1,000s of enemy soldiers behind you is a recipe for disaster and the Russians aren’t that stupid. You think they have nothing better to do than to slowly reduce a city to dust before moving on? Ukraine is turning cities into battlefields and few will admit that. The Russians have no choice but to take the cities. Do the Ukrainians have a choice where to fight their battles ? Yes. And they have clearly decided. Zelenskky’s wailing for the civilians is an own goal that MSM is often too sympathetic to mention. Quite frankly. they are all cut from the same cloth and I don’t give a toss if they wipe each other out. 

It's not a blitzkrieg type attack because the 'surprise' factor quota ran out on 24th February and now the Orcs are getting smashed, if not by the Ukrainian Army then on looted vodka and brandy.

[Fester]

5 hours ago, EdwardV said:

During his interview, Lukashenka repeatedly called for an end to the war in Ukraine while seeking to position Belarus as an intermediary rather than an active participant. “We categorically do not accept any war,” he stated. “We have done and are doing everything now so that there is not a war.

”The Minsk strongman’s efforts to distance himself from the conflict are the latest indication that Putin’s invasion is in danger of unraveling.

https://news.yahoo.com/belarus-dictator-putin-ukraine-invasion-110300999.html

Interesting to say the least. 

Judging by the recent protests in Belarus, maybe Big L is more worried that his own government is in danger of unravelling. 

[Fanta]

The Russians have apparently pulled back from Kharkiv. Donbas is definitely not the place for anyone to be now. 

Ukraine's general staff said the Russians were pulling back from Kharkiv — the nation's second-largest city in the north-east — and focusing on guarding supply routes, while launching mortar, artillery and airstrikes in the eastern Donetsk region in order to "deplete Ukrainian forces and destroy fortifications”

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-14/ukraine-says-it-has-won-battle-for-city-of-kharkiv/101067682 

 

[Marble-eye]

4 minutes ago, Fanta said:

The Russians have apparently pulled back from Kharkiv. Donbas is definitely not the place for anyone to be now. 

Ukraine's general staff said the Russians were pulling back from Kharkiv — the nation's second-largest city in the north-east — and focusing on guarding supply routes, while launching mortar, artillery and airstrikes in the eastern Donetsk region in order to "deplete Ukrainian forces and destroy fortifications”

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-14/ukraine-says-it-has-won-battle-for-city-of-kharkiv/101067682 

Fanta would it be fair to say that the Russians are getting Tangoed. 

[Rookiescot]

13 minutes ago, Fanta said:

The Russians have apparently pulled back from Kharkiv. Donbas is definitely not the place for anyone to be now. 

Ukraine's general staff said the Russians were pulling back from Kharkiv — the nation's second-largest city in the north-east — and focusing on guarding supply routes, while launching mortar, artillery and airstrikes in the eastern Donetsk region in order to "deplete Ukrainian forces and destroy fortifications”

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-14/ukraine-says-it-has-won-battle-for-city-of-kharkiv/101067682 

Yes thats right. They are pulling back because they want to.

[EdwardV]

2 hours ago, Fanta said:

The Russians have apparently pulled back from Kharkiv. Donbas is definitely not the place for anyone to be now. 

This started in last week and turned into a full blow retreat. Many of the Russian forces have pulled back across the border. In doing so they have blown the bridges: 

As the Russian forces retreated due to a sustained Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region, three bridges vital to continuing the Ukrainian advance were blown up, satellite images from BlackSky and the European Space Agency show.

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-05-13-22/h_c3c7b9664ff2a6e3311322d1c7731a22
 

You don’t blow bridges you plan to use again later. Like Kyiv, the Russians have given up on Kharkiv too. Next on the list of major targets given up on will be Odesa. The troops that left Mariupol headed north to Donbas instead of west to restart the drive to Odesa. Not proof, but not a good sign either. In the west if anything, Russia’s been giving up ground lately. 

[Fanta]

37 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

You don’t blow bridges you plan to use again later. Like Kyiv, the Russians have given up on Kharkiv too. Next on the list of major targets given up on will be Odesa. The troops that left Mariupol headed north to Donbas instead of west to restart the drive to Odesa. Not proof, but not a good sign either. In the west if anything, Russia’s been giving up ground lately. 

And you don’t leave bridges in place so your enemy can follow you. The Mariupol troops moving to Donbas was a given as the Russians and the Ukrainians are focused on Donbas. Leaving Odessa for later just makes sense - take Donbas and then maybe move onto Odessa which, by all accounts, would be a tough nut to crack. This Kharkiv retreat could be more of the same. Russia seems to be stretched meaning Ukraine is also. I called it before - Russians take Donbas, leave Odessa and it’s port for Ukraine and it’s peace time. It would be interesting to know the troop & armor numbers involved in Kharkiv as it is clearly not a Mariupol type attack.  

[oldschooler]

9 hours ago, Fanta said:

Same as Chechnya. Georgia, Syria etc etc - no one will give a toss a few years from now and, apart from much hand wringing, nothing will be done. Same shit, different day. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_war_crimes

Difference is ICC has jurisdiction in Ukraine with delegation to EU investigators on the case. Could go like Serbia did ….

[oldschooler]

9 minutes ago, Fanta said:

And you don’t leave bridges in place so your enemy can follow you. The Mariupol troops moving to Donbas was a given as the Russians and the Ukrainians are focused on Donbas. Leaving Odessa for later just makes sense - take Donbas and then maybe move onto Odessa which, by all accounts, would be a tough nut to crack. This Kharkiv retreat could be more of the same. Russia seems to be stretched meaning Ukraine is also. I called it before - Russians take Donbas, leave Odessa and it’s port for Ukraine and it’s peace time. It would be interesting to know the troop & armor numbers involved in Kharkiv as it is clearly not a Mariupol type attack.  

Russians ain’t taking the whole Donbass. Will be forced to give up all pre- 2022 invasion Ukrainian lands too I hope…..

[Fanta]

34 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

Difference is ICC has jurisdiction in Ukraine with delegation to EU investigators on the case. Could go like Serbia did ….

The ICC is a toothless paper tiger albeit a global one. It relies on nations to enforce it’s rulings. The only way that anyone does time for war crimes is if they are captured or handed over to the ICC. Russia, USA, China, Israel etc are not signatories to the ICC. So as you pointed out regime change is probably the only way those clowns will do time can happen. 

[Rookiescot]

37 minutes ago, Fanta said:

And you don’t leave bridges in place so your enemy can follow you. The Mariupol troops moving to Donbas was a given as the Russians and the Ukrainians are focused on Donbas. Leaving Odessa for later just makes sense - take Donbas and then maybe move onto Odessa which, by all accounts, would be a tough nut to crack. This Kharkiv retreat could be more of the same. Russia seems to be stretched meaning Ukraine is also. I called it before - Russians take Donbas, leave Odessa and it’s port for Ukraine and it’s peace time. It would be interesting to know the troop & armor numbers involved in Kharkiv as it is clearly not a Mariupol type attack.  

Its two massive retreats forced on Czar Putin and his thugs. Kyiv and now Kharkiv. 

Russia does not appear to be making much ground in the Donbass at all.

I already explained to you whats going to happen. What the Ukraine needs to do is stop the Russian supply lines.

Only you could take what is obviously another rout for Czar Putin and his thugs and try and paint it as a repositioning of forces.

 

[oldschooler]

16 minutes ago, Fanta said:

The ICC is a toothless paper tiger albeit a global one. It relies on nations to enforce it’s rulings. The only way that anyone does time for war crimes is if they are captured or handed over to the ICC. For Russia, USA, China, Israel etc, who are not signatories to the ICC, regime change is probably the only way that can happen. 

No it’s not. My post already showed that  “only way” worked very well in case of Serbia. Which you just ignored. Why am I having to repeat myself ?

I can see Ukraine SF snatch / “window fall” squads, passing easily as Russians ( many actually are), getting real busy in Russia post - war. Act of War be damned. 

[Fanta]

Just now, oldschooler said:

My post already showed that  “only way” worked very well in case of Serbia. Which you just ignored. Why am I having to repeat myself ?

I can see Ukraine SF snatch / “window fall” squads, passing easily as Russians ( many actually are), getting real busy in Russia post - war. Act of War be damned. 

I didn’t ignore it. I acknowledged it. 

28 minutes ago, Fanta said:

The only way that anyone does time for war crimes is if they are captured or handed over to the ICC. 

[EdwardV]

1 hour ago, Fanta said:

And you don’t leave bridges in place so your enemy can follow you.

Tactical withdrawal you leave them up, otherwise your trip back is so much tougher. As we saw last week, forced river crossings are not for the faint of heart. 
 

1 hour ago, Fanta said:

Russia seems to be stretched meaning Ukraine is also.

That’s an understatement and probably just as true on both sides. However not for the same reasons. Ukraine still has to guard the entire country, from Belarus to Odesa. Russia gets to concentrate their forces at the point of attack. However Russian forces are being ground up at a faster rate, just comes from being on the attack more. 
 

I’m still saying these next 2-3 weeks are critical for Russia. If they can’t break out, they will once again reach a culmination point and once again be forced to take an operational pause. The pauses at this point help Ukraine more than Russia. While I still think it’s Russia’s war to lose, I no longer think it’s a given they will win. They still need to mobilize, if not they can’t use their biggest strength and the numbers will continue to favor Ukraine. My opinion of course. 

[Poop]

1 hour ago, Fanta said:

And you don’t leave bridges in place so your enemy can follow you. The Mariupol troops moving to Donbas was a given as the Russians and the Ukrainians are focused on Donbas. Leaving Odessa for later just makes sense - take Donbas and then maybe move onto Odessa which, by all accounts, would be a tough nut to crack. This Kharkiv retreat could be more of the same. Russia seems to be stretched meaning Ukraine is also. I called it before - Russians take Donbas, leave Odessa and it’s port for Ukraine and it’s peace time. It would be interesting to know the troop & armor numbers involved in Kharkiv as it is clearly not a Mariupol type attack.  

You are clueless about how Ukrainians feel about this war. They have seen so many innocent children killed, women raped and indiscriminate shelling of civilians they are at the point where they will never stop fighting till there is not a single Russian let on their soil. They want all their land back now and for Zelensky to negotiate for anything less would be political suicide and he knows it.  Putin would like dream he can grab a  tiny bit more land and then negotiate but there is no negotiating at this point unless it involves Russia leaving Ukraine and paying for all they have done. The Ukrainians are mad and they will never forget.

Lucashenko is seriously worried. He thought he had the big bad wolf backing his power and now he sees their blown up tanks littering Ukrainian soil. He is coming to the realization that he will have 3 NATO members on his border and an angry armed Ukraine on the South with only a feeble old man who has enough problems of his own to protect him. It will take years for Russia to rebuild their military after this is over. Ukraine will not forget the role Belarus played in this conflict and you can bet they will support any Belarusian who wants to overthrow that dictator. If he does not pay $$$ for what he did to Ukraine the country will become a training ground for Belarusians to overthrow is rule. Ya he is getting seriously worried cause Russia is unraveling and he thought they would win... big mistake.....

[EdwardV]

At least he sees the irony:

Odesa businessman Sergey Demidov used to be a prominent member of the pro-Russian Party of Regions, which was in power in Ukraine from 2010 to 2014. Now, he prefers to forget that part of his life. Demidov is apoplectic about Russia's invasion of Ukraine. As the director of the Grand Pettine hotel complex on the beach, that's perhaps inevitable — as a large section of it was demolished last week by a Russian cruise missile. Demidov told CNN that the irony of the attack was not lost on him. Ten years ago, when pro-Russian factions in Ukraine were powerful, the Grand Pettine welcomed prominent Russian political figures and media personalities. When the pro-Russian movement in Odesa was at its peak during that time, the complex held conferences dedicated to the brotherhood of Ukraine and Russia. One was called "Challenges of the global crisis: the unity of Ukraine and Russia. Many Russian politicians, many famous Russian people came here, stayed here," he said. "Russian political scientists, Russian deputies, all these scoundrels came here”.

“Everyone could see that the hotel did not have any ammunition or troops deployed there. This is a health-entertainment-tourist complex. Apparently, those who direct these missiles do not understand at all where they are sending them," Demidov said.

"This missile attack put us out of work for at least a year," he said. As for his current political outlook, Demidov said: "I am Ukrainian, I am a patriot of Odesa, I am 100% Ukrainian!"

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-05-14-22/index.html 

Keeping in mind this is Odesa in the west. Imagine what those in the east feel. Those who’s families have been murdered or raped, who’s homes have been destroyed. You know those who are “Russian speakers” and were expected to side with Russia in an invasion. I bet they don’t feel the same about Russia anymore either. 

 

[Fanta]

6 hours ago, EdwardV said:

Tactical withdrawal you leave them up, otherwise your trip back is so much tougher. As we saw last week, forced river crossings are not for the faint of heart. 

You still believe that Russia want to conquer Ukraine in it’s entirety? If so, why isn’t Russia pounding away at Kyiv? We will see after Donbas.