News Forum - Ukraine’s Zelensky defies Russia’s ultimatum to lay down weapons

[Benroon]

20 hours ago, Fester said:

Your first off topic insult of many in one short rant. Start another thread then. I'll see you there. 

Do you think you need to turn down your sensitivity radar ? 
 

(Technically if indeed you did find anything insulting to your wokeness,  how could it be the first of many if nothing followed?) 

[Benroon]

15 hours ago, Fanta said:

No point wrestling with a pig. I just get dirty and only the pig enjoys it. 

Same goes for fat birds! 

[KRLMRX]

10 hours ago, EdwardV said:

That's a very very big deal for long term prices."

it's in your link.

All these problems and risks exist, but without agreements with Arab oil producers, the world is unlikely to see a noticeable decrease in oil prices.

So, if these trends continue, then even with a 50% drop in production, Russia will receive 3 times more dollars.

[oldschooler]

6 hours ago, Transam said:

Aaaah, that Guardian rag again, a rag that's right up your street, comrade..................

In interests of impartiality and to ( try) to understand “ the left” , I often read various Guardian articles…. Until that practice made me feel sick to my stomach ….so biased / unbalanced ultra liberal left , they inhabit a parallel universe …..where all cultures are equally accomplished & valuable  and black/ brown can do no wrong…. remind me again which culture invented EVERYTHING of value in the Modern World ? 

[oldschooler]

2 hours ago, KRLMRX said:

it's in your link.

All these problems and risks exist, but without agreements with Arab oil producers, the world is unlikely to see a noticeable decrease in oil prices.

So, if these trends continue, then even with a 50% drop in production, Russia will receive 3 times more dollars.

And when it’s a 100% production fall without western oilfield services ? 3x zero being …..zero

[oldschooler]

On 5/2/2022 at 10:34 AM, EdwardV said:

I guess that’s one way to look at it. Pretty sure the Ukrainian’s would think otherwise. How do you mine the waters and blockade when Ukraine is going to shoot anti ship missiles at you? Problem is Odesa is the main port and it’s still in Ukrainian hands. It’s the port you would need to open. A referendum in an occupied land isn’t going to be looked at as valid. 
 

I’m not too sure how valid that map is anymore. Not after the locals have been bombed for the last two months. Keep in mind those most likely to sympathize with Russia are also the ones who have been hit the hardest. Those in the east. Good way to change peoples minds wouldn’t you say?

Professor John Meirscheimer produced pre- 2014 Ukrainian Russian language / ethnicity / voting maps that were practically identical.

Clearly Ukraine needed pre- independence Partition , which might well be the final outcome here.

Then we might see how many Ethnic Russians move from the pro- Russian East / South Ukraine to pro- western ethnic Ukrainian speaking North / West Ukraine.

[Benroon]

54 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

In interests of impartiality and to ( try) to understand “ the left” , I often read various Guardian articles…. Until that practice made me feel sick to my stomach ….so biased / unbalanced ultra liberal left , they inhabit a parallel universe …..where all cultures are equally accomplished & valuable  and black/ brown can do no wrong…. remind me again which culture invented EVERYTHING of value in the Modern World ? 

Yeah ok Mr Garnett! I’m guessing you’re upwards of 83 correct ? 

Which cultures are more ‘valuable’ than others by the way ? 

Are the lesser cultures acceptable when they’re fighting wars for you, or saving your life in hospital wards ? Just asking like…

[Fester]

5 hours ago, Benroon said:

Do you think you need to turn down your sensitivity radar ? 
 

(Technically if indeed you did find anything insulting to your wokeness,  how could it be the first of many if nothing followed?) 

Wokeness? Ha ha. It's your radar that needs tuning, plus your English comprehension skills, of course. 

[Fester]

1 hour ago, oldschooler said:

Professor John Meirscheimer produced pre- 2014 Ukrainian Russian language / ethnicity / voting maps that were practically identical.

Clearly Ukraine needed pre- independence Partition , which might well be the final outcome here.

Then we might see how many Ethnic Russians move from the pro- Russian East / South Ukraine to pro- western ethnic Ukrainian speaking North / West Ukraine.

Well they would need to have a free choice in that case, which might be difficult to arrange.

[oldschooler]

3 hours ago, Fester said:

Well they would need to have a free choice in that case, which might be difficult to arrange.

 Big area & long porous “ border” to lock down. There would be literally millions of ethnic Russians moving east to west I reckon.Putin would let them go as “ traitors” then repopulate with “ loyal “ Russians.

 

[Del_SoL]

1954. Moscow. Central Telegraph Building.

300 Years of Unification Ukraine and Russia.

1654.

United States not exist. Germany too.

Otto Von Bismarck didn't born yet.

And now some western clowns come to us to learn where is the borders and how we should live.

Hahaha!

 

Edited May 4, 2022 by Faz
image in breach of FG's removed

[oldschooler]

5 hours ago, Benroon said:

Yeah ok Mr Garnett! I’m guessing you’re upwards of 83 correct ? 

Which cultures are more ‘valuable’ than others by the way ? 

Are the lesser cultures acceptable when they’re fighting wars for you, or saving your life in hospital wards ? Just asking like…

Well since you asked, I’ll give you a clue, the culture than invented Modern Science , Medicine , Industry, Banking, Steam Power, Metal Ships, Submarines, Railways, Steels & Alloys, , Computers, Jet Engines, Motor Engines & Vehicles, Internet, Spacecraft, Tv, Radio, Radar, Satellites, Orbiting Telescopes, Nuclear Power, Electrical Power, Refrigeration, Air Conditioning, Aircraft, Democracy, Classical Music ; I could go on.

Or you could go with other cultures than invented Reggae, Tequila, Curry, Korans or Boomerang or useful Ancient stuff but never progressed. 

Of course I would always prefer to judge individuals based on merit not origin. 

[EdwardV]

A picture is worth a thousand words. Pining away for the good old days when Russia mattered, and the world shook in fear of the Red Menace. Now Russia is nothing more than a gas station in a world switching to EVs. Now not only can't Russia defeat a country next door who lacked modern weapons, and had an army a fraction of it's size. Western military officials are even talking about Ukraine actually winning, that's how bad Russia's army is performing. 

Edited May 4, 2022 by Faz
quoted image removed

[oldschooler]

11 hours ago, Del_SoL said:

1954. Moscow. Central Telegraph Building.

300 Years of Unification Ukraine and Russia.

1654.

United States not exist. Germany too.

Otto Von Bismarck didn't born yet.

And now some western clowns come to us to learn where is the borders and how we should live.

Hahaha!

 

Ukraine Independence 1991.

Ukraine Borders accepted by Russia who violated them in 2014. 

Live in your ignorance & poverty with bad copies of inventions stolen from the West,  just don’t impose your tyranny on civilized people. 

Free Russia NEVER Existed. 

Edited May 4, 2022 by Faz
quoted image removed

[Del_SoL]

10 hours ago, EdwardV said:

A picture is worth a thousand words. Pining away for the good old days when Russia mattered, and the world shook in fear of the Red Menace. Now Russia is nothing more than a gas station in a world switching to EVs. Now not only can't Russia defeat a country next door who lacked modern weapons, and had an army a fraction of it's size. Western military officials are even talking about Ukraine actually winning, that's how bad Russia's army is performing. 

Nothing is finished yet. Russia is Phoenix. 

 

 

Edited May 4, 2022 by Faz
Disparaging comment and frivolous image removed.

[Alavan]

31 minutes ago, Del_SoL said:

And now some western clowns come to us to learn where is the borders and how we should live.

For me you can live however you like, as long as you respect other countries and let those people also live independently and however they like.
But that is asking to much from you.

[Del_SoL]

8 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

Ukraine Independence 1991.

Ukraine Borders accepted by Russia who violated them in 2014. 

Live in your ignorance & poverty with bad copies of inventions stolen from the West,  just don’t impose your tyranny on civilized people. 

Free Russia NEVER Existed. 

Western liars told to Gorbachev  there no plans to extend NATO to East.

Western thugs and liars just always lie.

[Del_SoL]

22 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

Ukraine Independence 1991.

Ukraine Borders accepted by Russia who violated them in 2014. 

Live in your ignorance & poverty with bad copies of inventions stolen from the West,  just don’t impose your tyranny on civilized people. 

Free Russia NEVER Existed. 

American slave want told us somethinhg about Freedom! Come on guy!

Edited May 3, 2022 by Del_SoL

[KRLMRX]

7 hours ago, oldschooler said:

In interests of impartiality and to ( try) to understand “ the left” , I often read various Guardian articles…. Until that practice made me feel sick to my stomach ….so biased / unbalanced ultra liberal left , they inhabit a parallel universe …..where all cultures are equally accomplished & valuable  and black/ brown can do no wrong…. remind me again which culture invented EVERYTHING of value in the Modern World ? 

real leftists, unlike the Guardian, operate with facts.  

All cultures are equally developed, for their level of development of society.  

Everyone can make mistakes, regardless of skin color.  

If by everything valuable you mean what has appeared in the last 300 years (the industrial revolution), then this is an understandable consequence of colonial robbery and slave-owning capital accumulation.

[KRLMRX]

7 hours ago, oldschooler said:

And when it’s a 100% production fall without western oilfield services ? 3x zero being …..zero

somehow oil was produced before the arrival of Halliburton and Schlumberger.  

Complex layers will not be able to work, but it will definitely not fall to zero.

[Del_SoL]

So-called "sanctions"  again Russia did they approved by UN?

Sure not.

Western thief's in their bankruptcy  want to steal everything around.

 

 

Edited May 3, 2022 by Del_SoL

[EdwardV]

6 minutes ago, KRLMRX said:

somehow oil was produced before the arrival of Halliburton and Schlumberger.  

Complex layers will not be able to work, but it will definitely not fall to zero.

Yes from Russia's southern fields, the ones that are practically played out. The North Caucasus fields, you know the ones Germany tried to get during WWII, have little left in known reserves. The Urals-Volga fields are in the diminishing returns phase. 

The vast majority of current Russian production comes from the West Siberian fields. Russia has huge reserves, but they have already gotten to the easy supply decades ago. Normal for any country, you always reach for the low hanging fruit first. 

Russia has already lost a million barrels a day in April. The industry now expects Russia to lose another two million in May. These are huge losses and it's just the beginning: 

The oil market could lose as much as 2 million barrels a day of Russian crude in coming weeks, when the hit from existing sanctions becomes apparent, BP's chief executive has said. Bernard Looney predicted the coming drop-off in comments to Reuters after the company's quarterly results on Tuesday, as the EU prepares fresh measures on Russian oil. "There is one million barrels a day of Russian crude off the system today... We think that will probably double this month, when existing sanctions come into effect," Looney told Reuters ... "From the long term, something far more serious is going on — and that is what's going on in Russia," the founder of The Energy Word told Yahoo Finance Live. 'And not only the bans that are likely coming from Europe that they seem to have a very long-term interest in making stick. The energy companies — Exxon, Total, BP — leaving Russia, stranding assets in Russia," he said. Dicker noted that energy infrastructure in Russia has been dependent on Western energy companies getting the oil out of the ground, and it is now missing that extraction. "That's going to be a long-term, systemic problem with production in Russia, which may ultimately lead to three million barrels a day of oil coming off the market, from the Russian markets.

Expect as much as 2 million barrels a day of Russian crude to vanish from the market in May as sanctions kick in, BP boss says (msn.com)

The "three million barrels" he is talking about in the last sentence is from the lack of new wells being drilled and the atrophy of the existing system. That's a systematic loss that will play out over this year and next. 

Keep in mind, the loses to date are mostly from self-sanctioning corporations, and a few countries imposing import bans. It's not hard to see why Russia will need to start shutting down wells as early as this month. Worse yet is the long term ramifications of what happens when the war is over. Just how much of the lost production never comes back because the demand has permanently moved on? 

 

 

[Fanta]

5 hours ago, EdwardV said:

Just how much of the lost production never comes back because the demand has permanently moved on? 

The black gold is the same as cocaine. Ban it and shame it but people still crave it and will begrudgingly pay a premium for it and find a way to produce it. Supply and demand will balance the scales.
imo, this war shouldn’t last more than another 3 months. Russia is already starting to annex parts of Ukraine and that language map I posted looks suspiciously like the Russian advances and likely Putin’s desired end result. If Russia wanted all of Ukraine NOW they wouldn’t be annexing it in pieces. And if Russia wanted to they could level Kyiv from afar but haven’t done so yet. Why? Maybe it’s a scheduling conflict with all the visiting celebrities and politicians? Or Chuck Norris’ location needs to be determined because no-one throws a bomb near Chuck and doesn’t limp away. imo Russia will take the South and Donbass, leave Odessa alone and then start hammering Kyiv to force peace talks.

 

[EdwardV]

2 minutes ago, Fanta said:

The black gold is the same as cocaine. Ban it and shame it but people still crave it and will begrudgingly pay a premium for it and find a way to produce it. Supply and demand will balance the scales.

You are certainly more right than wrong, but I'm not sure it will all come back. If Russia has to shut the Siberian well fields, it could take decades for production to return to pre invasion levels (last time it took almost 30 years). When you can't fulfill demand for an extended period, a certain level will not come back. Whether they have found acceptable replacements for whatever reasons, or they just need less because of changes in the economy. Russia accelerating the greening of EU energy use wasn't in their long term interest either. 

8 minutes ago, Fanta said:

And if Russia wanted to they could level Kyiv from afar but haven’t done so yet. Why?

A large part of that, if it was Russia's desire, is because Kyiv is now outside of tube artillery range. Most of the destruction done to cities is done by tube artillery, it's just so much cheaper than bombs or rockets. Never mind it's probably not in Russian military best interest to use up the rest of their PGMs or wear out their air power trying to destroy buildings in a very large city.  

[Marble-eye]

It has been reported that some of Russias top Generals are looking to rid the Kremlin of the lunatic that calls himself president. 

 

"Rumours are swirling in Moscow that a number of former generals and KGB officials are preparing to oust Russia’s president Vladimir Putin and plan to end the war in Ukraine, which is increasingly seen across Russia as a strategic mistake and, above all, an economic disaster.

The top of Putin’s former employer – the Russian security service FSB – is said to be so frustrated about the lack of military progress in Ukraine that it has reached out to a number of generals and former army officials, according to various analysts and local media reports.

In particular a group called the ‘Siloviki’ – which comprises of former FSB officers who are active in Russian politics – is said to be pushing hard to replace Putin, together with former officers from the GRU, KGB and FSO, other Russian intelligence units."

https://www.cityam.com/kremlin-on-high-alert-as-coup-rumours-grow-in-moscow-disgruntled-generals-join-fsb-looking-to-oust-putin-and-end-ukraine-war/