News Forum - Thailand’s daily Covid death toll breaches 100 for fifth straight day

[Thaiger]

As people in Thailand celebrate Songkran, the nation’s daily death toll from Covid-19 has breached the 100 mark for 5 consecutive days from Sunday to Thursday. This morning, the Public Health Ministry reported 115 new fatalities and more than 24,100 infections nationwide. Yesterday, 106 deaths and more than 23,000 cases were reported. The ministry reported 108, 105 and 101 deaths on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, respectively. Sunday marked the first time the nation recorded a hundred daily deaths from the virus this year, with the Public Health Ministry reporting more than 25,000 new infections, on par with the approximately 25,000 […]

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[Peter-pan]

There’s something suspicious  here. No country is recording this ratio of deaths to infections per day. And cases are low compared to the population.  

[vvdb.fr]

for 25000 daily cases 100 deaths it seems huge compared to Europe. I think the number of cases is very low compared to reality. do we know the testing capacity of Thailand? we cap at 25,000 because we would already be at the maximum number of tests.

[Soidog]

1 hour ago, vvdb.fr said:

for 25000 daily cases 100 deaths it seems huge compared to Europe. I think the number of cases is very low compared to reality. do we know the testing capacity of Thailand? we cap at 25,000 because we would already be at the maximum number of tests.

Right here is the problem with Thailands data. These two charts show the positivity rate (number of tests compared to the number which are positive). Basically, Thailand is only counting PCR tests, the majority of which are confirmation of positive ATK tests. Secondly, they are only testing around 50,000 a day. This shows the issue at hand. If Thailand was testing 500,000-1,000,000 a day, the cases would be well over 100,000 a day. I also believe that deaths are more likely to be running around 200-300 a day but can’t prove it with the data available. This is why the actions of the government appear counterintuitive compared to many other countries. A country with 25,000 cases and 100 deaths would be fully open and back to normal. The government know full well that is not the true picture. Just common sense in my view. 

[Bennett]

More despicable scaremongering to get people to take the booster. 

[HiuMak]

100 cases? It maybe more depending on the classification of death. Daily deaths is a more accurate measurement in Thailand's case. It really shows infection is spreading. Daily new cases is meaningless in LOS.

[Soidog]

1 hour ago, HiuMak said:

100 cases? It maybe more depending on the classification of death. Daily deaths is a more accurate measurement in Thailand's case. It really shows infection is spreading. Daily new cases is meaningless in LOS.

So called excess deaths is an interesting piece of data. This looks at total number of all deaths and compares it to the average over past years. This shows Thailand currently around 30%-35%. Each year Thailand typically has 530,000 deaths per year. That’s clearly 1,452/day. A 30% increase on that “normal” fatality rate, give an excess number of 434/day. I’m not suggesting these numbers are that accurate and not all will be Covid. But if it’s not Covid, what is it?  It lends weight to the fact that the daily death rate due to Covid is more likely 200-300 a day. 

[Saltire]

I agree with those who say these numbers are on the low side.

Covid is everywhere now, even in my small village of around 2000 people, according to the village chief those infected stand at almost 50%.

This 50% also now includes me and the wife, we just finished our 10 day (at home thankfully) quarantine. Our symptoms were quite mild, runny nose for me and same for the wife plus a bit of a cough. Tested (ATK) negative yesterday so free again.

I feel lucky to have had 3 vaccines and have been taking care of my immune system. No one has isolated as much as we have, but still caought it. Her 2 brothers who live next door tested negative despite a month of funerals, new monk celebrations and general partying. Sod's Law!

 

[Smithydog]

@SaltireGlad to hear you both are better with no complications other than the quarantine. Both the wife and I had a test myself yesterday (ATK) which came up negative but still quarantined as close contacts. Wife and Mother in-law both tested positive and trying to get the Mother-in-Law to understand sense about it has been hard. (She only really speaks Issan now!)

Daughter had a mild sore throat but fine now. 

All the villagers around here are full of it. No deaths yet in our village but next one has had a couple. Village Headman was around with the Village Nurse yesterday and he was telling me that infection was running around 70% mark. So much so that they ran out of ATK testing kits and medicine to treat it.

He was also telling me that that the administrator at the village clinic is quarantined after a positive test, so no notifications are coming from there. Whether they will bother filing them later, who knows. So we are definitely not included in the counts!

And the best bit is someone making some money out of it all. The Clinic is selling the ATK kits in the village at 65 Baht each when you can get the same approved kits online and delivered for 35 Baht each!

[Saltire]

4 minutes ago, Smithydog said:

@SaltireGlad to hear you both are better with no complications other than the quarantine. Both the wife and I had a test myself yesterday (ATK) which came up negative but still quarantined as close contacts. Wife and Mother in-law both tested positive and trying to get the Mother-in-Law to understand sense about it has been hard. (She only really speaks Issan now!)

Daughter had a mild sore throat but fine now. 

All the villagers around here are full of it. No deaths yet in our village but next one has had a couple. Village Headman was around with the Village Nurse yesterday and he was telling me that infection was running around 70% mark. So much so that they ran out of ATK testing kits and medicine to treat it.

He was also telling me that that the administrator at the village clinic is quarantined after a positive test, so no notifications are coming from there. Whether they will bother filing them later, who knows. So we are definitely not included in the counts!

And the best bit is someone making some money out of it all. The Clinic is selling the ATK kits in the village at 65 Baht each when you can get the same approved kits online and delivered for 35 Baht each!

My local clinic test everyone for free. For those who prefer you can buy at a few local shops for 75 Baht. As you say I reckon our tests will go uncounted. We went to the clinic for the first test, both positive, and yesterday we tested ourselves, both negative.

I feel very relieved as for 2 years I had convinced myself that, if Covid found me, I'd be a dead man for sure as I have Diabetes, 3 stents and highish blood pressure.

Now planning trip somewhere beginning of May, going to have a ball.

Stay safe and negative,

[Smithydog]

34 minutes ago, Saltire said:

I feel very relieved as for 2 years I had convinced myself that, if Covid found me, I'd be a dead man for sure as I have Diabetes, 3 stents and highish blood pressure.

Now planning trip somewhere beginning of May, going to have a ball.

Stay safe and negative,

Know the feeling very well. Has been hard to overcome the mental challenge at times to get out of the house and the farm area. I too have pre-existing conditions, similar to what you have had, despite being a fit and very active person in my younger years.

But that is just life.  Keep safe and well yourself.

[Cabra]

Strange how this 100 number became the random litmus test for Thailand's self evaluation of its covid situation. Send me a notice when the daily death toll passes 250 (like it was in September 2021). Otherwise, considered this just another day in the endless pandemic. Not a surge/wave/etc. until we hit 250.

[Cabra]

16 hours ago, vvdb.fr said:

for 25000 daily cases 100 deaths it seems huge compared to Europe. I think the number of cases is very low compared to reality. do we know the testing capacity of Thailand? we cap at 25,000 because we would already be at the maximum number of tests.

Because # of infections are widely underreported. It's that simple. And even at 100 dead per day (compared to where THA was in Sept 2021), none of this is worthy of the restrictions Thailand currently has in place.

[Soidog]

1 hour ago, Cabra said:

Because # of infections are widely underreported. It's that simple. And even at 100 dead per day (compared to where THA was in Sept 2021), none of this is worthy of the restrictions Thailand currently has in place.

I would agree that 100 dead per day is not worthy of the restrictions. Problem is, the authorities know it’s not 100 a day. They also know the case load is not 25,000 a day. This is a combination of authorities knowing the numbers are under reported and the political need to maintain the State of Emergency for a few months longer. 

[longwood50]

What exactly is a Covid Death?  If you have a 95 year old man with pacreatic cancer, emphyysema, and with a history of heart disease who dies but has Covid detected is that a Covid Death?  

We all die from something and typically it is something that makes the symptoms of existing disease worse.  You catch the flu and die while recuperating from heart surgery.  You stub your toe, get an infection which goes to your heart.  Did stubbing your toe cause your death.  You overexert yourself which causes your blood pressure to rise to a point where you have a stroke and die.  Did your excercise cause your death. 

This idea that every person who passes away who has covid in their system is a covid death is over reporting.  Most people who die and have covid have at least 1 comorbidity.  So even if that person has covid, and lets say their cormobidity is heart disease and that person dies because they suffered a heart attack, did the Covid cause that heart attack or was it just that person's time to go? 

The reality is that if anything Covid intensifies the symptoms of the person's existing cormorbidities.  They really died from their heart disease, emphysema, or cancer and by catching Covid it accentuated their problems.  Had they not had those underlying health problems covid likely would not have produced their death at that time. So which comes first, the chicken or the egg. 

[Poolie]

43 minutes ago, longwood50 said:

What exactly is a Covid Death?  If you have a 95 year old man with pacreatic cancer, emphyysema, and with a history of heart disease who dies but has Covid detected is that a Covid Death?  

We all die from something and typically it is something that makes the symptoms of existing disease worse.  You catch the flu and die while recuperating from heart surgery.  You stub your toe, get an infection which goes to your heart.  Did stubbing your toe cause your death.  You overexert yourself which causes your blood pressure to rise to a point where you have a stroke and die.  Did your excercise cause your death. 

This idea that every person who passes away who has covid in their system is a covid death is over reporting.  Most people who die and have covid have at least 1 comorbidity.  So even if that person has covid, and lets say their cormobidity is heart disease and that person dies because they suffered a heart attack, did the Covid cause that heart attack or was it just that person's time to go? 

The reality is that if anything Covid intensifies the symptoms of the person's existing cormorbidities.  They really died from their heart disease, emphysema, or cancer and by catching Covid it accentuated their problems.  Had they not had those underlying health problems covid likely would not have produced their death at that time. So which comes first, the chicken or the egg. 

The egg.

[longwood50]

14 minutes ago, Poolie said:

The egg.

Then where did the egg come from? 

[Poolie]

2 minutes ago, longwood50 said:

Then where did the egg come from? 

An albatross.

[Cabra]

19 hours ago, Soidog said:

combination of authorities knowing the numbers are under reported and the political need to maintain the State of Emergency

Is it to save face given the prior flawed rules and restrictions, or is there another reason to them to drag out this emergency decree order?

[Soidog]

1 hour ago, Cabra said:

Is it to save face given the prior flawed rules and restrictions, or is there another reason to them to drag out this emergency decree order?

Well it’s difficult to know. A number of Thai friends I speak to are convinced it’s related to upcoming elections. In trying to unpick what they say, the feeling is that elections could take place as soon as November. The current government will remove restrictions on tourism before they finally lift the emergency decree and hopefully ride the wave of optimism opening up will generate. What they don’t want, is a situation where protests can start to build again on the streets and destroy that feel good factor. Who knows, but it’s an opinion that has a ring of sense and logic to it