News Forum - Deaths due to Covid-19 pandemic much higher than reported figures, study shows

[Thaiger]

The Covid-19 death toll is much higher than what has been officially reported, according to a recent analysis published in The Lancet, a medical journal. The analysis estimates that the global number of fatalities related to the Covid-19 pandemic reached 18.2 million by December 31, 2021, which triples the number of deaths reported at 5.94 million. The findings were based on excess mortality, which the World Health Organisation says is the difference between the total number of deaths in a crisis compared to those expected under normal conditions. This also accounts for the number of deaths that were indirectly attributed […]

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[Soidog]

Wow, I’m shocked! With just the usual cohort of countries reporting numbers accurately, is it any surprise? Deaths in many countries, including Thailand will be 2 to 3 times higher than reported. Places like India could be 3 to 5 times higher. This isn’t surprising at all. 

[JJJ]

One possible interpretation of these figures is that both the estimate excess deaths and reported number of COVID deaths are TRUE and that the response has lead to as many or more deaths than the virus itself.  Of course public health authorities would never admit as much. 

[vlad]

Iv'e always maintained the Death figures in Thailand from Covid were fudged because the leadership were hiding the true figures in case they showed how poor they responded to the Epidemic.

[Malc-Thai]

The truth always surfaces.. just look at the help line for people recently infected or tested positive.. they've been getting over 70,000 calls a day...

[AdvocatusDiaboli]

  On 3/14/2022 at 5:38 AM, Thaiger said:

The Covid-19 death toll is much higher than what has been officially reported,

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Maybe if the counted for all the Corrupt countries in South East Asia, and corrected their figures, it should nearly balance out. 

[Cabra]

Yep. Lies and half truths. Business as usual for most governments

[Chatogaster]

Based on the The Lancelet report, Thailand has done quite (even very) well with a factor of 1.62 more excess deaths than Covid-19 deaths.

Neighbor Laos which had measures in place similar to those of Thailand has a whopping factor of 12.47.  India which has a relatively tiny medical capacity has a huge factor of 8.33. Germany did much better but still slightly worse than Thailand despite its huge medical capacity: 1.82.

[Soidog]

  On 3/14/2022 at 10:29 AM, Chatogaster said:

Based on the The Lancelet report, Thailand has done quite (even very) well with a factor of 1.62 more excess deaths than Covid-19 deaths.

Neighbor Laos which had measures in place similar to those of Thailand has a whopping factor of 12.47.  India which has a relatively tiny medical capacity has a huge factor of 8.33. Germany did much better but still slightly worse than Thailand despite its huge medical capacity: 1.82.

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What was the UK and US? 

[Chatogaster]

  On 3/14/2022 at 10:38 AM, Soidog said:

What was the UK and US? 

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USA: 1.37
UK: 0.97

Glad to help, but if your next question is about some other countries, or the average per continent, or the average per GDP class etc., I proactively refer you to the report. The link is in the article.

[Soidog]

  On 3/14/2022 at 10:56 AM, Chatogaster said:

USA: 1.37
UK: 0.97

Glad to help, but if your next question is about some other countries, or the average per continent, or the average per GDP class etc., I proactively refer you to the report. The link is in the article.

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Thanks

[BigHewer]

Fascinating data and worth a look. 
So Australia, NZ, Iceland and Taiwan had “negative excess mortality”. The only four countries as a whole. 

Some regions within countries fared better than others. Alabama the worst off in the US. 

Interesting that all the provinces of China were similar, except for Hubei province, which had more excess death (where Wuhan is located).

[Chatogaster]

  On 3/14/2022 at 11:36 AM, Soidog said:

Thanks

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You're welcome.

Just FYI, the global average is 3.07, and 5.32 for Central Asia (disclaimer: based on the report only). I'm not pro-Thailand by default (I resent its approach to reporting cases and even more so its recent incentive which looks like its tailored to enforce a 20-30% reduction of death statistics in the near future).

[LoongFred]

  On 3/14/2022 at 8:12 AM, AdvocatusDiaboli said:

Maybe if the counted for all the Corrupt countries in South East Asia, and corrected their figures, it should nearly balance out. 

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[LoongFred]

  On 3/15/2022 at 5:30 AM, LoongFred said:

  On 3/14/2022 at 8:12 AM, AdvocatusDiaboli said:

Maybe if the counted for all the Corrupt countries in South East Asia, and corrected their figures, it should nearly balance out. 

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As long as countries are consistent with there counting  methods there isn't a problem. The study was to balance out the methods so they're comparable. With that adjustment Thailand still look very good compared to the UK with similar sized population or the US with much larger population. Instead of complaining Thailand should be commended on the job so far.

Each country has it own reasons for over or undercounting. It all depends on the criteria given to determine the cause of death.

[LoongFred]

  On 3/15/2022 at 5:41 AM, LoongFred said:

As long as countries are consistent with there counting  methods there isn't a problem. The study was to balance out the methods so they're comparable. With that adjustment Thailand still look very good compared to the UK with similar sized population or the US with much larger population. Instead of complaining Thailand should be commended on the job so far.

Each country has it own reasons for over or undercounting. It all depends on the criteria given to determine the cause of death.

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It doesn’t seem like posters have backgrounds in biostatistics. I had a good exposure to biostatistics in graduate school and still had to read very carefully. The important figures are number of deaths/100k after corrections were made. The fact that the article's criteria shows over or under reporting is no longer significant after corrections are made.

[Poolie]

Maybe they will one day report deaths. Full stop. Never mind all this adjustment. Just deaths.

Zero covid was a cracking idea as long as NZ were doing it. Now its the new 'repression' tactic. How many faces? More than a dice factory.

[AdvocatusDiaboli]

  On 3/15/2022 at 5:50 AM, LoongFred said:

I had a good exposure to biostatistics in graduate school

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Biostatistics is on thing …… open Government and Politics is a completely different field. 

[longwood50]

  On 3/14/2022 at 5:38 AM, Thaiger said:

The Covid-19 death toll is much higher than what has been officially reported,

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How can this possibly be.  You can be involved in a traffic accident with major head trauma and if you are tested and found to have Covid it is reported in the USA as a Covid death. 

1 in 8 men in the USA will at some time be diagnosed with prostate cancer.  That does not mean they die from prostate cancer, but rather with it. 

Same is true of 86 year old with cancer, heart disease, and high blood pressure who dies but has Covid.  They died "with covid" not from it.  Now covid may complicate their pre-existing mortalities such as the heart disease, or high blood pressure. However the same is true if the person contracted an infection, or the flu.  The flu didn't cause the death, it made the person's pre-existing morbidities worse. 

 

[LoongFred]

  On 3/15/2022 at 7:43 AM, longwood50 said:

How can this possibly be.  You can be involved in a traffic accident with major head trauma and if you are tested and found to have Covid it is reported in the USA as a Covid death. 

1 in 8 men in the USA will at some time be diagnosed with prostate cancer.  That does not mean they die from prostate cancer, but rather with it. 

Same is true of 86 year old with cancer, heart disease, and high blood pressure who dies but has Covid.  They died "with covid" not from it.  Now covid may complicate their pre-existing mortalities such as the heart disease, or high blood pressure. However the same is true if the person contracted an infection, or the flu.  The flu didn't cause the death, it made the person's pre-existing morbidities worse. 

 

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In the US hospitals are paid by what they call "diagnosis related groups". The hospital encourages the diagnosis that pays the best. I don't think Thailand uses this method. In all fairness it can be difficult to pinpoint and or separate causes. It probably the combination of things that lead to demise.

[longwood50]

  On 3/15/2022 at 7:52 AM, LoongFred said:

In all fairness it can be difficult to pinpoint and or separate causes. It probably the combination of things that lead to demise.

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You have that exactly correct.  Death is caused typically by a combination of factors. The person "dies" from a blood clot because it blocks the flow of blood.  So did the person die from asphyxiation.

The CDC has for a while on its website the chart that only 6% of Covid deaths were from individuals with no comorbidity.  There has been much debate about that statistic.  Does the death of someone with severe emphysema who contracts covid and dies mean that the person died from Covid?  Particularly troubling for me are the very elderly who succomb to both old age health condidtions, contract covid and pass away.  Did they die from old age, or because of covid.  My own mother in law was in a nursing home, she passed away, it was found she had covid.  She was 96.  

The fact is that the vast majority of people who are healthy and contract covid will not even require hospitalization.  Those most at risk are those who are elderly or who have other significant health problems that Covid can make much worse. 

[Poolie]

Can I ask, if it's not a personal question, why are you called Doctor Doom?

[Tim_Melb]

All of you that are make ng comments try to twist these numbers or make a ng the same old claims about with Covid deaths are talking complete rubbish. This report is show numbers for deaths during the pandemic compared to deaths in a year without the pandemic adjusted for population growth etc. The only factor that is different in the comparison is COVID-19 the excess deaths recorded can only be deaths from or related to COVID-19. That does not mean the excess all died from Covid but it means they either died from Covid or from conditions that went untreated because of Covid effect on the healthcare systems and a small percentage from the psychological effects of the pandemic and the restrictions. But by far the majority are people that died from Covid but it went unreported. There is no question, there is no debate, there is no misreporting. The excess deaths are from covid or covid related. 

[Soidog]

  On 3/16/2022 at 9:44 AM, Tim_Melb said:

All of you that are make ng comments try to twist these numbers or make a ng the same old claims about with Covid deaths are talking complete rubbish. This report is show numbers for deaths during the pandemic compared to deaths in a year without the pandemic adjusted for population growth etc. The only factor that is different in the comparison is COVID-19 the excess deaths recorded can only be deaths from or related to COVID-19. That does not mean the excess all died from Covid but it means they either died from Covid or from conditions that went untreated because of Covid effect on the healthcare systems and a small percentage from the psychological effects of the pandemic and the restrictions. But by far the majority are people that died from Covid but it went unreported. There is no question, there is no debate, there is no misreporting. The excess deaths are from covid or covid related. 

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Spot on analysis and comments. Excess deaths have always been the key indicator on the effect of Covid overall. Covers everything 

[LoongFred]

  On 3/16/2022 at 9:44 AM, Tim_Melb said:

All of you that are make ng comments try to twist these numbers or make a ng the same old claims about with Covid deaths are talking complete rubbish. This report is show numbers for deaths during the pandemic compared to deaths in a year without the pandemic adjusted for population growth etc. The only factor that is different in the comparison is COVID-19 the excess deaths recorded can only be deaths from or related to COVID-19. That does not mean the excess all died from Covid but it means they either died from Covid or from conditions that went untreated because of Covid effect on the healthcare systems and a small percentage from the psychological effects of the pandemic and the restrictions. But by far the majority are people that died from Covid but it went unreported. There is no question, there is no debate, there is no misreporting. The excess deaths are from covid or covid related. 

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Even with the adjustment Thailand looks good compared to Europe and America. Different accounting systems but still good results.