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China has allotted 1.45 trillion yuan for military spending in 2022. That’s the equivalent of US$229.5 billion and a whooping 17 times Taiwan’s defense spending for the year, according to a report by the Taipei Times. On Saturday, the Chinese Ministry of Finance issued a statement saying the nation’s defense budget would increase 7.1 percent from last year, signaling a faster expansion and widening the gap in defense spending between China and Taiwan. However, the state-run Global Times reported that China’s military budget “is not a challenge to the US position in the Indo-Pacific region” and that the figure “does […]

The story China’s military budget increases 7.1% in 2022 as seen on Thaiger News.

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Interesting article.
 
Every study that I have seen cited or referred to over the years (it's an interest and I used to live there) suggests the same thing; Mainland China would eventually win a war against Taiwan due to sheer size and numbers, but the costs of doing it were prohibitive. 
 
Let's hope, among all other reasons, that Ukraine holds out long enough for the crippling sanctions to eviscerate the Russian economy as a lesson to the Mainland Chinese of the consequences of a war of choice.
 
That said, it is inevitable, in my view, that China will eventually launch one across the strait. Simply put, China has made a strategic error in always proclaiming that Taiwan is 'theirs' when everyone knows it is a free and democratic state. "Face", that stupidest of Asian traits, will make them do it even when it is against their own best interests, and the cost will be horrendous.
 
The only positive that I can see is that China is too stupid not to have already done it, so they will wait until they manage to attain a good living for their people, then they'll ruin it with a "Face-Saving' attack. 
 
Idiots.
 
Bloodthirsty idiots
 
It'll be their downfall.

 

  • Like 2
3 minutes ago, Poolie said:

China = 1.4bn People Taiwan = 24 m People.

China = 9.6m Sq km Taiwan = 36k Sq km.

China = 2m active serving troops Taiwan 300k active serving troops

Dont be silly. Of course their budget is bigger.

 

China = 1.4bn People Taiwan = 24 m People.

China = 9.6m Sq km Taiwan = 36k Sq km.

China = 2m active serving troops Taiwan 300k active serving troops

However, your analysis is incorrect; the budget doesn't matter.

The proper analysis is that the Free, Independent and Democratic Republic of China is under threat by the CCP, while mainland China is not under threat by the ROC.

The relative defense budgets are irrelevant.

One side is threatened, and one side is not.

 

  • Like 1
25 minutes ago, Poolie said:

One side is said to be threatened....................by who?

A trolling comment without worth or substance; no thanks, Poolie

Greetings to your Chinese Commie Party Masters and have a nice day.

#Free Taiwan

#Free Tibet

#Free the Uighurs

#Free Hong Kong

  • Like 1
15 hours ago, Cabra said:

Keeping up with the Joneses (a.k.a. USA)

Yes, there is a lot of truth there.

However, there is a fundamental difference between the two entities. The US stages a lot of firepower at various places in the world  based on their alliances (Germany, Japan, Australia, etc. I think the US has 68(?) formal defense alliances). China, on the other hand, has few international security alliances (none that I can think of off the top of my head), and thus their fire-power is more concentrated in and around their own territory.

I believe that China has one formal base on the Horn of Africa, but will likely want to expand the number of over-seas bases in the near future (assuming that it doesn't launch a war of aggression against Taiwan; that would change things).

I wonder how the world will feel about that.

If it had alliances based on mutual protection and assistance it'd be unwelcome but palatable, but lacking those, it'll seem to be simply wanting to project power for the sake of projecting power, and I wouldn't be happy about that. 

If China gets tied into a series of agreements delineating how and when military power can be used, it could be a member of the rules-based international order. On the other hand, if it just wants basing rights based on territory taken through dodgy BAR Initiative funding agreements, then it'll cause problems.

Figuring out China's place on the planet for the next few decades is a fascinating subject. We (humanity) managed to contain and cure the cancer of the old USSR (to an extent); will we be able to contain the ruthless suppression of human rights practiced by China?

We do live in perilous times.

 

Edited by Shade_Wilder
  • Like 2

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