News Forum - Covid-19 infections will soon begin to level off and drop for most of the country – CCSA

[Thaiger]

The government’s Covid-19 task force expects overall case numbers to level off and start dropping soon, but 10 provinces could still see rising numbers. Yesterday, Thailand reported 14,900 new infections and 26 Covid deaths, compared to 15,882 cases and 25 deaths the day before. Bangkok reported 2,892 and 10 deaths, with daily infections doubling during the first 6 weeks of the year. Samut Prakan, Chon Buri, Nonthaburi and Phuket have all experienced a similar spike, leading officials to conclude these provinces may soon start to see declining infection numbers. However, the Bangkok Post reports that the CCSA is closely monitoring […]

The story Covid-19 infections will soon begin to level off and drop for most of the country – CCSA as seen on Thaiger News.

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[DoUKnowWhoIAm]

Time to scrap the Thailand Ass, day 1&5 debacle and return to a single ATK on arrival. Or better, drop everything except for vaccine certificate.

[Fundok]

“It would not be correct to conclude that Omicron is less severe.”

Well, with the experience made in my region (Switzerland) and the neighbouring countries one can say that yes, Omikron is clearly less severe than Delta. Delta has practically vanished here, Omikron is the dominant virus strain here now. With TH reporting still 20% Delta it is no surprise that the number of deaths remains fairly high. Would be interesting to learn which virus strain was the one that the people who died suffered from.

To put things in perspective: Switzerland with about one tenth of the population of Thailand reported 48'969 new infections today (that would be close to half a million new daily infections if we apply this to a population of the size of Thailand). 36 new deaths reported = 360 extrapolated on Thailand but actually the report states 24 deaths, so even in absolute numbers less than in Switzerland. There is always a level of uncertainty in my mind when it comes to the question of how reliable numbers in Thailand are, but overall it seems that the situation in Thailand is at least less severe than in Switzerland. Yet soon, probably by tomorrow, most of the Corona restrictions will be lifted, including the mask mandate (will probably remain in public transport though). So one wonders why Thailand insists on a policy that is so damaging for its economy.

 

 

[JJJ]

What happened to the shift to more meaningful metrics like severe cases and ICU?

Also when are the tests taken? Somehow there’s no fall off during the weekend even though hospitals tend to be less busy and of course globally testing falls on the weekend. So a conspiracy theorist might wonder how she knows the numbers are going down this week. 

[Dialemco]

Now Covid endemuc the numbers are meaningless Thailand needs to open up without restrictions so we can all get back to normality.

[HiuMak]

On 2/15/2022 at 10:18 AM, Thaiger said:

The government’s Covid-19 task force expects overall case numbers to level off and start dropping soon, but 10 provinces could still see rising numbers. Yesterday, Thailand reported 14,900 new infections and 26 Covid deaths, compared to 15,882 cases and 25 deaths the day before. Bangkok reported 2,892 and 10 deaths, with daily infections doubling during the first 6 weeks of the year. Samut Prakan, Chon Buri, Nonthaburi and Phuket have all experienced a similar spike, leading officials to conclude these provinces may soon start to see declining infection numbers. However, the Bangkok Post reports that the CCSA is closely monitoring […]

The story Covid-19 infections will soon begin to level off and drop for most of the country – CCSA as seen on Thaiger News.

Read the full story

same old story. Boring

[LoongFred]

Things would be a lot worse if the government was not pro active.

[palooka]

On 2/15/2022 at 7:50 PM, JJJ said:

What happened to the shift to more meaningful metrics like severe cases and ICU?

Also when are the tests taken? Somehow there’s no fall off during the weekend even though hospitals tend to be less busy and of course globally testing falls on the weekend. So a conspiracy theorist might wonder how she knows the numbers are going down this week. 

No conspiracy just Thai political maths, if Pnut and/or Anut say they will go down then they will.

 

[Soidog]

All countries have tried to balance a number of factors with this pandemic. The health of the people. The economic health of the country. Freedom of people to live their life normally. No one country seems to have got it perfect and each persons view on where the priority should lie varies so much. However, it’s clear that the Thai government is simply no longer in tune with the current Covid risks and the risk to health of individuals and health services. They are neglecting the economic health and freedoms. They need to rebalance their thinking. 

[Tim_Melb]

On 2/15/2022 at 6:07 PM, Fundok said:

“It would not be correct to conclude that Omicron is less severe.”

Well, with the experience made in my region (Switzerland) and the neighbouring countries one can say that yes, Omikron is clearly less severe than Delta. Delta has practically vanished here, Omikron is the dominant virus strain here now. With TH reporting still 20% Delta it is no surprise that the number of deaths remains fairly high. Would be interesting to learn which virus strain was the one that the people who died suffered from.

To put things in perspective: Switzerland with about one tenth of the population of Thailand reported 48'969 new infections today (that would be close to half a million new daily infections if we apply this to a population of the size of Thailand). 36 new deaths reported = 360 extrapolated on Thailand but actually the report states 24 deaths, so even in absolute numbers less than in Switzerland. There is always a level of uncertainty in my mind when it comes to the question of how reliable numbers in Thailand are, but overall it seems that the situation in Thailand is at least less severe than in Switzerland. Yet soon, probably by tomorrow, most of the Corona restrictions will be lifted, including the mask mandate (will probably remain in public transport though). So one wonders why Thailand insists on a policy that is so damaging for its economy.

To put things into a genuine perspective, you are correct in saying that Omicron is less severe than Delta. However Omicron is every bit as deadly as the original Wuhan strain and Alpha, a point that seems to have been overlooked by the media Nd many politicians and of course the drop everything and open up brigade. The reality is that we must find a healthy middle ground so we can get on with our lives and businesses while still taking steps to reduce the spread of the current and new variants. I agree with the dropping the day 5 test requirement it's just not reasonable. A valid vaccination certificate and a supervised antigen test or ATK before departure and on arrival should be enough. However wearing masks should be required when in public where possible. The requirement should be for KN95, N95 or KF94 masks as a minimum and not surgical, cloth or any of the other rubbish rags that people are tying around their faces. Given that these can be reused 5 to 7 times a cheap pack of 5 masks can last a person a month or more before being replaced. We should also have advertising campaigns teaching the public how to fit them correctly. These masks are comfortable to wear and will not fall down when speaking when fitted correctly. The fact is that the selfish individuals who fight wearing masks need to get over themselves. People that are at risk have a right to participate in society and these masks do work to stop transmission and the research is there to prove it. 

[Fundok]

Given the very high Omikron infection rates and the comparable small number of hospitalizations and deaths I do not agree that this variant is as dangerous as the initial strain, possibly also because the proportion of people vaccinated.

Wearing masks in the outside only makes sense if people are densely flocked together; in all other instances there is nothing much gained. Different story inside, especially in public transport, health and old age facilities.

But at the end, the question is: how much sense does it make to try to stop the spreading of the virus if the impact of the infections is manageable?

With regards to FFP2/KN95 masks: it's not only a matter to wear them correctly as you rightfully point out. Typically they are single use, so if everyone really used them only once this would incur massive for everyone, produce heaps of rubbish and yet, as explained above, the purpose of doing all this is not really convincing.

It's a different game with Omikron. Just continue vaccinating as much as possible, that's the best protection against an infection/the infection taking a dangerous/deadly course.

[Tim_Melb]

28 minutes ago, Fundok said:

Given the very high Omikron infection rates and the comparable small number of hospitalizations and deaths I do not agree that this variant is as dangerous as the initial strain, possibly also because the proportion of people vaccinated.

It is not a matter of opinion it is documented FACT that Omicron is equally deadly and causes just as many servere cases and hospitalisations as the original and Alpha strains in the unvaccinated the difference in hospitalisations now is vaccination blocking severe disease. 

[Tim_Melb]

34 minutes ago, Fundok said:

But at the end, the question is: how much sense does it make to try to stop the spreading of the virus if the impact of the infections is manageable?

The problem is that it is not manageable. Look at Australia approx 95% double vaccinated, 40%+ boosted, and Omicron has been allowed to run largely free. Result the healthcare system has been brought to its knees and even now as the virus cases are slowly receding the healthcare system is still on the verge of collapse. In a country with less resources total failure of the healthcare system would be inevitable. 

[Tim_Melb]

51 minutes ago, Fundok said:

With regards to FFP2/KN95 masks: it's not only a matter to wear them correctly as you rightfully point out. Typically they are single use, so if everyone really used them only once this would incur massive for everyone, produce heaps of rubbish and yet, as explained above, the purpose of doing all this is not really convincing.

It's a different game with Omikron. Just continue vaccinating as much as possible, that's the best protection against an infection/the infection taking a dangerous/deadly course

Although rated as single use the CDC has approved the reuse of these masks and provided instructions on the best method of storing them for reuse. While vaccination is the best way to ensure that you do not suffer from severe disease it does not reduce the transmission of virus by a significant factor. Wearing appropriate masks correctly does. In fact you don't even need to do a study to prove it you just need to do the math. Using KF94 masks as an example, they block 94% of virus particles from passing through the mask. If both you and the people you come in contact with are wearing them correctly then they only breathe out 6% of the particles they normally would and you only exposed to 6% of that 6% which is 0.36%. Transmission reduced by a factor of 99.64% minimum is a genuine way to stop transmission. Now we all know that people do not wear the masks all the time so that number is unrealistic but if we all wear them whenever possible it will have a serious impact on the spread of the virus and protect vulnerable people who as I said have a right to participate in society. 

The fact is there will be more variants and in spite of what some people think, there is no reason why a new variant could not arrise that is extremely deadly. Taking this simple step to slow transmission is not an inconvenience or a political statement, it's common sense and a courtesy to both yourself and your fellow human beings. 

[Fundok]

23 minutes ago, Tim_Melb said:

Although rated as single use the CDC has approved the reuse of these masks and provided instructions on the best method of storing them for reuse. While vaccination is the best way to ensure that you do not suffer from severe disease it does not reduce the transmission of virus by a significant factor. Wearing appropriate masks correctly does. In fact you don't even need to do a study to prove it you just need to do the math. Using KF94 masks as an example, they block 94% of virus particles from passing through the mask. If both you and the people you come in contact with are wearing them correctly then they only breathe out 6% of the particles they normally would and you only exposed to 6% of that 6% which is 0.36%. Transmission reduced by a factor of 99.64% minimum is a genuine way to stop transmission. Now we all know that people do not wear the masks all the time so that number is unrealistic but if we all wear them whenever possible it will have a serious impact on the spread of the virus and protect vulnerable people who as I said have a right to participate in society. 

The fact is there will be more variants and in spite of what some people think, there is no reason why a new variant could not arrise that is extremely deadly. Taking this simple step to slow transmission is not an inconvenience or a political statement, it's common sense and a courtesy to both yourself and your fellow human beings. 

Agreed: this virus ist there to stay, and it likely that there will be other variants that will manage to "escape" the protection provided by vaccines to a smaller or larger extent. Your thesis, that mask wearing will prevent this, needs yet to be ascertained and underpinned with empirical evidence.

Mask wearing does make sense depending on the circumstances. Outdoors is a safe place as the virus travels in aerosols and these are dilluted in the air, so the virus concentration is typically not high enough to infect someone. Congregating in Walking Streets or sports stadiums is of course a riskier exercise albeit being in the open.

[Stonker]

On 2/15/2022 at 2:07 PM, Fundok said:

with the experience made in my region (Switzerland) and the neighbouring countries one can say that yes, Omikron is clearly less severe than Delta.

Well, what one can actually say is that despite your views on Omicron, considerably more have been dying from Omicron per day in the last couple of months in Switzerland than died from Delta per day for most of last year.

Awkward, that ...

On 2/15/2022 at 2:07 PM, Fundok said:

So one wonders why Thailand insists on a policy that is so damaging for its economy

Just a guess, but maybe they don't want a Covid death rate like Switzerland's, which is twenty times higher than Thailand's.

[Tim_Melb]

11 minutes ago, Fundok said:

Agreed: this virus ist there to stay, and it likely that there will be other variants that will manage to "escape" the protection provided by vaccines to a smaller or larger extent. Your thesis, that mask wearing will prevent this, needs yet to be ascertained and underpinned with empirical evidence.

Mask wearing does make sense depending on the circumstances. Outdoors is a safe place as the virus travels in aerosols and these are dilluted in the air, so the virus concentration is typically not high enough to infect someone. Congregating in Walking Streets or sports stadiums is of course a riskier exercise albeit being in the open.

Absolutely but I would make the point that constantly putting it on and taking it off becomes a chore and people will just stop putting it back on where as wearing it all the time except when you need to remove it for eating and drinking, makes it much more likely that it stays on when needed. It has been ascertained that they do reduce transmission to near zero. In a study recently done in Florida, which I can unfortunately no longer find the link to, they showed that wearing N95 grade masks did indeed reduce transmission to near zero when all people present wore the masks and they concluded that the added reduction in transmission even though small from being vaccinated would render transmission effectively impossible. Of course we all know that asking people in Florida to wear masks all the time would be political suicide so that just is not going to happen.

[Stonker]

22 minutes ago, Fundok said:

Your thesis, that mask wearing will prevent this, needs yet to be ascertained and underpinned with empirical evidence.

It's not "his" thesis - it's been subject to countless scientific tests and "empirical evidence" in countless studies, many of which have been given here.

People like you just don't like the studies conclusions so just keep on denying it, which is rather tedious.

[Fundok]

9 hours ago, Stonker said:

It's not "his" thesis - it's been subject to countless scientific tests and "empirical evidence" in countless studies, many of which have been given here.

People like you just don't like the studies conclusions so just keep on denying it, which is rather tedious.

It is a thesis as long as there is no evidence that mask wearing outdoors (with no one in close vicinity) is significantly decreasing the risk of getting infected. Plenty of studies relating to indoor environments or when people densely flock together, but that was not what I was referring to-

I am not aware of any studies proving that mask wearing outdoors (with no one in close vicinity) is significantly decreasing the risk of getting infected (simply, because the risk is NIL).

Different story when inside or when outdoors inmidst a crowd of people), I agree. All I wanted to point out that a general mask mandate is pointless and needs to be more granular to adequately only address situations where mask wearing does make sense. Things aren't always only black or white.
By the way, "people like me" are actually pretty well informed and as I professionally deal a lot with risk and risk mitigation I indeed am quite versed in doing risk assessments and to draw my own conclusions.

[Fundok]

9 hours ago, Tim_Melb said:

Absolutely but I would make the point that constantly putting it on and taking it off becomes a chore and people will just stop putting it back on where as wearing it all the time except when you need to remove it for eating and drinking, makes it much more likely that it stays on when needed. It has been ascertained that they do reduce transmission to near zero. In a study recently done in Florida, which I can unfortunately no longer find the link to, they showed that wearing N95 grade masks did indeed reduce transmission to near zero when all people present wore the masks and they concluded that the added reduction in transmission even though small from being vaccinated would render transmission effectively impossible. Of course we all know that asking people in Florida to wear masks all the time would be political suicide so that just is not going to happen.

Taking the mask on and off is a pain, but if you don't have to wear a mask you don't have to take it off.

Wear a mask where it makes sense, but only then. A universal mask mandate - that's the only point I'd like to make - forces everyone to wear a mask even if this does not make any sense from a risk mitigation perspective. But if someone feels more comfortable to wear a mask even when alone on a beach - why not?