News Forum - Songkran to be cancelled if daily Covid numbers hit 30,000 – DDC

[HolyCowCm]

10 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

Or only go out in the car with windows up and park where they cannot get you and go indoors quickly. 

Yah, but you must remember to lock your car or truck doors as I have seen them opened and drenched inside way too many times.

[LoongFred]

7 hours ago, Soidog said:

I think a more realistic number of cases currently in Thailand is between 50,000-75,000 a day. It’s certainly nowhere near 14,800 reported today. That said, it really doesn’t matter what the actual number is  as long as you don’t change your method of data capture. The 30,000 figure quoted is arbitrary and 25,000 or 35,000 could have been chosen.
 

Thailand needs to move on with its attitude to this virus now. They were at least 6 months behind the curve with vaccination and it’s now looking like they will be 6 months behind the thinking on living with Covid. I’m fully expecting some glorious headline from senior politicians come July or August of how they have decided the country needs to learn to live with Covid. Like it’s a revelation only their superior intellect can see.  

50-75 k is a big number. May I ask what it's based on or are you under the influence of something. You don't trust figures from the Thai health department but can make up your own. This tells me you have trust issues, probably with everything. 

[Thommo]

8 hours ago, ExpatPattaya said:

Songkran was ruined by foreigners and partiers.  Supposed to be personal and intimate, wishing others a Happy and Prosperous New Year with a handful of water gently tossed onto a friend or loved one. 

Now it is about all out water wars on the streets with buckets and water trucks and crazy plastic water guns soaking everyone.  Just another alcohol fueled frenzy ...but we like it 555

 

8 hours ago, ExpatPattaya said:

Songkran was ruined by foreigners and partiers.  Supposed to be personal and intimate, wishing others a Happy and Prosperous New Year with a handful of water gently tossed onto a friend or loved one. 

Now it is about all out water wars on the streets with buckets and water trucks and crazy plastic water guns soaking everyone.  Just another alcohol fueled frenzy ...but we like it 555

Must be the Farangs fault

[AussieBob]

8 hours ago, HolyCowCm said:

Yah, but you must remember to lock your car or truck doors as I have seen them opened and drenched inside way too many times.

Yep - saw that when stopped at traffic  lights one day - our car has auto-lock so not an issue.

[AussieBob]

1 hour ago, LoongFred said:

50-75 k is a big number. May I ask what it's based on or are you under the influence of something. You don't trust figures from the Thai health department but can make up your own. This tells me you have trust issues, probably with everything. 

Probably a little high Fred - but I reckon the low reported numbers are because of the low reported tests, and low numbers wanting to get tested. Omicron is more infectious than anything before it - and back then with lock downs everywhere, they got  over 20K a day - I reckon at least 30K and maybe 40K is realistic. 

[HolyCowCm]

23 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

Yep - saw that when stopped at traffic  lights one day - our car has auto-lock so not an issue.

Yeah, glad you saw it same as I have many of times. We too have auto locks on our now newer vehicles, but sometimes they seem to not lock immediately especially on the civic. Both not older that 2+ years old. Normally I ride a bike for this time unless going out to dinner with the family at night and I skip going out for the festival. 

[Noble_Design]

14 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

Probably a little high Fred - but I reckon the low reported numbers are because of the low reported tests, and low numbers wanting to get tested. Omicron is more infectious than anything before it - and back then with lock downs everywhere, they got  over 20K a day - I reckon at least 30K and maybe 40K is realistic. 

I don't think that low numbers of testing can be used as an excuse anymore with the proliferation, ease of buying and cheap ATK kits. Half a year ago that would be the case as anyone suspected of being infected would need to find clinics and hospitals to the tests for them and even then capacity is highly limited.

But nowadays these test kits are available at almost every pharmacy and very affordable too. Some companies are even enforcing periodical testing for all their employees. My wife's company is one of them, her company would buy and have the employees do the tests on a weekly basis.

[HolyCowCm]

9 hours ago, AussieBob said:

Speak for yourself.  Speaking for me and others, I want to know where that water came from. I very much doubt they were allowed to use bottled water - straight from the taps.  Do you drink tap water in Thailand?  I dont want to either.  As I said earlier, during the first year we lived there, we saw them getting water from the moat in Chiang Mai - after that sudden paradigm shift back to reality, we always avoided getting sprayed during Songkran. 

I try to put that out of my mind. I know in CM they always empty drain out the moat to clean it up before the festivities, so isn’t that that bad. Never been hospitalized yet from the water, so far so good. 

[satpete]

in about 2 weeks numbers may about 50.000 per day,
but government may not report the numbers anymore,

peek will be in mid of March, so may going down in April

I do not not believe that the real numbers are less than 25.000 now
because less tests less numbers

since Omicron is in the country, most countries in the world reported 200.000
or much more daily infections, no reasons that Thailand will get lower numbers

Edited February 10, 2022 by satpete

[Soidog]

2 hours ago, LoongFred said:

50-75 k is a big number. May I ask what it's based on or are you under the influence of something. You don't trust figures from the Thai health department but can make up your own. This tells me you have trust issues, probably with everything. 

Thanks for the usual laughs and childish insults, something I’ve come to expect from you.  
I’m basing my number of the fact that only 30,000-40,000 test per day are being done. I could explain further but I prefer not to waste my time. You carry on believing  the “official” Thai numbers and leave the adults to discuss.  

[Soidog]

57 minutes ago, satpete said:

in about 2 weeks numbers may about 50.000 per day,
but government may not report the numbers anymore,

peek will be in mid of March, so may going down in April

I do not not believe that the real numbers are less than 25.000 now
because less tests less numbers

since Omicron is in the country, most countries in the world reported 200.000
or much more daily infections, no reasons that Thailand will get lower numbers

Absolutely correct. But be careful with such obvious and logical comments. The Thai apologists get upset when you say such things. 

[satpete]

fighting for democracy should be done by thai people, not me

and all religions will never make freedom to the world

Edited February 10, 2022 by satpete

[LoongFred]

11 hours ago, satpete said:

in about 2 weeks numbers may about 50.000 per day,
but government may not report the numbers anymore,

peek will be in mid of March, so may going down in April

I do not not believe that the real numbers are less than 25.000 now
because less tests less numbers

since Omicron is in the country, most countries in the world reported 200.000
or much more daily infections, no reasons that Thailand will get lower numbers

Because other countries in Europe haven't done well, it doesn't mean Thailand should follow their lead. 

[LoongFred]

19 hours ago, satpete said:

in about 2 weeks numbers may about 50.000 per day,
but government may not report the numbers anymore,

peek will be in mid of March, so may going down in April

I do not not believe that the real numbers are less than 25.000 now
because less tests less numbers

since Omicron is in the country, most countries in the world reported 200.000
or much more daily infections, no reasons that Thailand will get lower numbers

There's a tremendous gap between what we know and what could be true. I understand some people doubt the official numbers, but that what is being reported to them.

It undoubtedly would not include asymptomatic cases not reported but that the best data we have. To inflate these numbers someone should have proof. If it's a wild guess estimate it should state such. If I were a revenue tax person just added 50% to your totals because everyone cheats on taxes , you'd be very unhappy.

I will accept the official numbers and hope they don't change their methodology so comparisons can be made.

Others have said that in Europe the numbers are much higher , so Thailand must be cooking the books to get low numbers. It really depends if their counts are accurate, and or the disease is being controlled. I don't believe comparison of this sort.

Let's not make up numbers and follow what are known facts.

[LoongFred]

On 2/10/2022 at 10:52 AM, Soidog said:

I think a more realistic number of cases currently in Thailand is between 50,000-75,000 a day. It’s certainly nowhere near 14,800 reported today. That said, it really doesn’t matter what the actual number is  as long as you don’t change your method of data capture. The 30,000 figure quoted is arbitrary and 25,000 or 35,000 could have been chosen.
 

Thailand needs to move on with its attitude to this virus now. They were at least 6 months behind the curve with vaccination and it’s now looking like they will be 6 months behind the thinking on living with Covid. I’m fully expecting some glorious headline from senior politicians come July or August of how they have decided the country needs to learn to live with Covid. Like it’s a revelation only their superior intellect can see.  

Could I ask you what criteria you are using to come up to those numbers? Is it newly id cases, number of people ill , recovered patients  etc. Are these numbers estimates or real counts? The criteria needs to be the same to be comparable.  Are some numbers thrown out and or some double counted? I ask this because numbers based on sampling data need solid criteria. Otherwise it considered a wild guess. Guesses are sometime used if accurate data is not available , but needs to be identified as such.

My  primary training is as a medical¹ scientist. I have also participated in scientific research and publications. More than once a paper or thesis has failed the standards. Some publish data in newpapers or periodicals lacks these safeguards.

[SkipsPa]

On 2/10/2022 at 4:47 AM, HolyCowCm said:

I love it and always will. Even when the day comes that I need to walk with a cane.

I do walk with a cane! I didn't mind the powder or most of the hits but wasn't so keen on someone using a hose - it was so cold I was shivering! Lol

[Marc26]

On 2/9/2022 at 8:41 PM, HolyCowCm said:

Water Festival bubble zone areas. Sort of irrelevant at this time as no one is going to wear a wet mask and keep on replacing it, and the Omicron is no where near puttering out at spike level here yet. 

Don't they sort of have that in villages?

Where they "play water" at the temple

 

As for anyone else

I'm a bit over it, but still like the madness of it being organically on the streets

 

Won't be for 10+ years time

But will be looking forward to it when we have grandkids and are living in Thailand 

That would be fun

[Marc26]

2 hours ago, SkipsPa said:

I do walk with a cane! I didn't mind the powder or most of the hits but wasn't so keen on someone using a hose - it was so cold I was shivering! Lol

It's when they have a pick up truck with ice in a barrel 

 

You don't get used to freezing cold water hitting you

Especially on the back!

[AussieBob]

On 2/10/2022 at 11:32 PM, Noble_Design said:

I don't think that low numbers of testing can be used as an excuse anymore with the proliferation, ease of buying and cheap ATK kits. Half a year ago that would be the case as anyone suspected of being infected would need to find clinics and hospitals to the tests for them and even then capacity is highly limited.

But nowadays these test kits are available at almost every pharmacy and very affordable too. Some companies are even enforcing periodical testing for all their employees. My wife's company is one of them, her company would buy and have the employees do the tests on a weekly basis.

That is true. They are just not testing as many as they were before, because of lower demand for the PCR tests - they dont report the ATK tests. But what is being said widely is that many asymptomatic people when testing positive, just isolate themselves - they would rather avoid the 'official system'. But unfortunately, many others just keep it to themselves - both to avoid the system and so they can keep working - I am referring to the 'cash economy' workers - not office staff etc. 

[AussieBob]

On 2/10/2022 at 11:38 PM, HolyCowCm said:

I try to put that out of my mind. I know in CM they always empty drain out the moat to clean it up before the festivities, so isn’t that that bad. Never been hospitalized yet from the water, so far so good. 

Said the man falling from the top of Shanghai Tower     But I did see media reports after we had left CM that complained about the kids using moat water - so then they 'cleaned' it up before the next Songkran.  But would you drink tap water in Thailand? I dont either - and I dont want a mouthful of it.  Up to you and I truly hope you never spend hours in the toilet evacuating your system from both ends at the same time.  Once you have been through that 'experience' (was not in Thailand for me) you become hyper conscious of not putting anything inside you that might be an issue. 

[LoongFred]

The subject of testing is very interesting. Rapid antigen tests are not as accurate and more false positives and negative. They are OK for what they were designed to do, but there are many variables such as how the sample was collected and tested are big ones. PCR also has challenges especially again with collection and testing. Other factors are co.parison between test kit manufactures etc. 

With  PCR testing establishing cut off regarding the number of times replication takes place is critical. For those not familiar with this testing, it basically multiples the specific sample to a number that can be detected (sensitivity ), if set for more replication you get and increase in false positives and too low more false negatives. Different manufacturers may or may not compare well as well as different labs may get different results. It's not that testing is wrong it's not comparable. 

Different countries may include different things in their result. Such as both rapid tests and PCR test result. There are many more variables.

Thailand counts only PCR testing that has standardized sensitivity. Of course that would produce a more conservative number. The number should compare if everything stays the same. Change any variables and comparisons don't work.

This is but a brief explanation,  but laboratory quality assurances is a major part in laboratory science, in Thailand, America and Europe. If you have specific questions about this, contact me via PM. Others might not be interested.

[Lowseasonlover]

How are we doing so far? 

[HolyCowCm]

9 hours ago, SkipsPa said:

I do walk with a cane! I didn't mind the powder or most of the hits but wasn't so keen on someone using a hose - it was so cold I was shivering! Lol

My thing is ice in the drum of water. That I grin and bear it. But always like it as get a beer here and then a beer there, some food, and enjoy it looking at the happy faces with free time off for one time of the year.

[HolyCowCm]

7 hours ago, Marc26 said:

Don't they sort of have that in villages?

Where they "play water" at the temple

As for anyone else

I'm a bit over it, but still like the madness of it being organically on the streets

Won't be for 10+ years time

But will be looking forward to it when we have grandkids and are living in Thailand 

That would be fun

Yeah it is different in out of city areas but still exists. CM is the party. I'm not over it as I enjoy the blowing off of steam as I need it as well.

[HolyCowCm]

6 hours ago, AussieBob said:

Said the man falling from the top of Shanghai Tower     But I did see media reports after we had left CM that complained about the kids using moat water - so then they 'cleaned' it up before the next Songkran.  But would you drink tap water in Thailand? I dont either - and I dont want a mouthful of it.  Up to you and I truly hope you never spend hours in the toilet evacuating your system from both ends at the same time.  Once you have been through that 'experience' (was not in Thailand for me) you become hyper conscious of not putting anything inside you that might be an issue. 

Maybe we are immune and impervious to the microbes in the water already. I don't drink tap water anywhere in the world, but I do brush my teeth with it and do shower or take a bath in it. Yes my house 
I put in a bath tub. So when you are in Thailand you don't shower? Pores on your body absorb it don't they?