News Forum - Songkran to be cancelled if daily Covid numbers hit 30,000 – DDC

[Thaiger]

Thailand’s famous water festival Songkran might be cancelled for another year if the daily Covid-19 cases reach 30,000 cases per day, the Department of Disease Control says. The massive water gun fight, celebrating the Thai New Year, was cancelled in 2020 and 2021 due to coronavirus concerns. The DDC warns that Songkran, which is April 13 to 15 this year, will be cancelled again if the Covid-19 situation isn’t under control. With the spread of the highly transmissible Omicron variant in Thailand, health officials expect the numbers to increase and peak around the end of February to early March. The […]

The story Songkran to be cancelled if daily Covid numbers hit 30,000 – DDC as seen on Thaiger News.

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[ThaiEyes]

Hmmm they just got through saying they wouldn’t be reporting the case totals, only focusing on hospitalizations and deaths. So what, they’re going to hid the number of cases so they can spring it on everyone at the last minute? “Oh sorry, no Songkran this year…” merchants and vendors likely have to prepare for that very soon. 

[DoUKnowWhoIAm]

31 minutes ago, Thaiger said:

30,000 cases per day,

Officially 13.000 today, add the unreported positive ATK tests and we're probably already there. It's a long way to Songkran, might even have declinined until then.

 

 

 

 

[Graham]

That's the stuff Doc, just scare the crap out of everyone yet again, let's keep the scaremongering going until 2023.

TIT.

[Koen]

We got here 80,000 per d

[Koen]

Infections can't be stopped, just try to control it. Avoid mass gatherings. Spread the infections till heard immunity is reached. Vaccinate and boost. You waited too long

[HiuMak]

The cat is out of the bag....Truth is out there

11 hours ago, DoUKnowWhoIAm said:

Officially 13.000 today, add the unreported positive ATK tests and we're probably already there. It's a long way to Songkran, might even have declinined until then.

 

[AussieBob]

38 minutes ago, Koen said:

Infections can't be stopped, just try to control it. Avoid mass gatherings. Spread the infections till heard immunity is reached. Vaccinate and boost. You waited too long

What you said is probably going to be their first backdown strategy on the impositions for Thais and Tourists.  They are currently easing things for Thais and are 'managing' public opinion by doing things like saying they are considering not reporting case numbers. When they feel it is 'right' they will then ease back the restrictions on tourists, because although publicly not stating it (of course) the numbers under the second version of Test and Go are dramatically lower then they thought they would be and what TAT predicted. 

As soon as they announce no more testing on arrival and no quarantine (the truth this time), then TAT will announce 10 million tourists during Songkran   generating 50 billion baht money  and then TAT will ask for another 50 million baht budget increase to grow by 5 million the number of basket-weaving monks visiting from Lithuania 

[Lowseasonlover]

The hotels in Phuket wont be happy, It would be better if they made their minds up now and not leave it until last minute like they usually do,

[palooka]

14 hours ago, Thaiger said:

the Thai New Year, was cancelled in 2020 and 2021 due to coronavirus concerns.

Songkran wasn't cancelled 2021, that's when the population spread out to the provinces and covid numbers increased, and P'nut cops a lot of criticism for not cancelling. 

Water fights were banned, not sure if water spreads covid but people definitely do. 

[Lowseasonlover]

34 minutes ago, palooka said:

Songkran wasn't cancelled 2021, that's when the population spread out to the provinces and covid numbers increased, and P'nut cops a lot of criticism for not cancelling. 

Water fights were banned, not sure if water spreads covid but people definitely do. 

I remember here in Phuket they asked people just to celebrate with the family 

[ace035]

No "what if's" s**t, just cancel it, or else Anutin will be freaking out again if there is an outbreak.

[Rookiescot]

If omicron behaves as it has in other countries (and there is no reason it wont) we will see a huge rise in cases of infection followed by a sharp drop.

The peak will probably be well behind us before we get to April. 

[ExpatPattaya]

Songkran was ruined by foreigners and partiers.  Supposed to be personal and intimate, wishing others a Happy and Prosperous New Year with a handful of water gently tossed onto a friend or loved one. 

Now it is about all out water wars on the streets with buckets and water trucks and crazy plastic water guns soaking everyone.  Just another alcohol fueled frenzy ...but we like it 555

Edited February 10, 2022 by ExpatPattaya

[Marc26]

5 minutes ago, ExpatPattaya said:

Songkran was ruined by foreigners and partiers.  Supposed to be personal and intimate, wishing others a Happy and Prosperous New Year with a handful of water gently tossed onto a friend or loved one. 

Now it is about all out water wars on the streets with buckets and water trucks and crazy plastic water guns soaking everyone.  Just another alcohol fueled frenzy ...but we like it 555

Almost every single person in that 2nd picture is Thai 5555

[JJJ]

Of course we were told New Years caused a superspreader event and Test & Go needed to be cancelled to prevent infections. Now we’re told cases are up because “more businesses are open”.

It’s all hogwash. The highly managed case count is now what double the small increase after New Years? What did suspending Test & Go do? What businesses opened between December and February? 

Infections will go up and down and most of the population will have to deal with a the omicron cold at some point. It’s no surprise that Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand are all seeing increasing cases and it has nothing to do with the effectiveness of lockdowns and business restrictions  

Protect the elderly and high risk, get better treatments, and move on. 
 

[Smiler]

Songkran is way out of control now anyway, you can’t go out without getting soaked by some idiot, but each to their own,  personally I hate it so will binge on Netflix till it’s over! 

[Lowseasonlover]

5 minutes ago, Smiler said:

Songkran is way out of control now anyway, you can’t go out without getting soaked by some idiot, but each to their own,  personally I hate it so will binge on Netflix till it’s over! 

Fortunately it's only one day where we live 

[Chatogaster]

56 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

If omicron behaves as it has in other countries (and there is no reason it wont) we will see a huge rise in cases of infection followed by a sharp drop.

The peak will probably be well behind us before we get to April. 

 

Seems plausible, perhaps a bit on the early side.

Once cases get some momentum, it seems to take 1-2 months to reach the peak after which cases decline at a similar rate (at least initially). Loose countries (in terms of restrictions) tend towards 1 month, strict countries towards 2 months. For Thailand I reckon the peak will be in mid to late March and that we'll be back to relatively very low case counts by the end of May (a normal, nation-wide songkran would stretch that though).

Would it be unethical to set up a betting pool?

 

[Soidog]

15 hours ago, DoUKnowWhoIAm said:

Officially 13.000 today, add the unreported positive ATK tests and we're probably already there. It's a long way to Songkran, might even have declinined until then.

I think a more realistic number of cases currently in Thailand is between 50,000-75,000 a day. It’s certainly nowhere near 14,800 reported today. That said, it really doesn’t matter what the actual number is  as long as you don’t change your method of data capture. The 30,000 figure quoted is arbitrary and 25,000 or 35,000 could have been chosen.
 

Thailand needs to move on with its attitude to this virus now. They were at least 6 months behind the curve with vaccination and it’s now looking like they will be 6 months behind the thinking on living with Covid. I’m fully expecting some glorious headline from senior politicians come July or August of how they have decided the country needs to learn to live with Covid. Like it’s a revelation only their superior intellect can see.  

[AussieBob]

1 hour ago, ExpatPattaya said:

Songkran was ruined by foreigners and partiers.  Supposed to be personal and intimate, wishing others a Happy and Prosperous New Year with a handful of water gently tossed onto a friend or loved one. 

Now it is about all out water wars on the streets with buckets and water trucks and crazy plastic water guns soaking everyone.  Just another alcohol fueled frenzy ...but we like it 555

Speak for yourself.  Speaking for me and others, I want to know where that water came from. I very much doubt they were allowed to use bottled water - straight from the taps.  Do you drink tap water in Thailand?  I dont want to either.  As I said earlier, during the first year we lived there, we saw them getting water from the moat in Chiang Mai - after that sudden paradigm shift back to reality, we always avoided getting sprayed during Songkran. 

[AussieBob]

1 hour ago, Smiler said:

Songkran is way out of control now anyway, you can’t go out without getting soaked by some idiot, but each to their own,  personally I hate it so will binge on Netflix till it’s over! 

Or only go out in the car with windows up and park where they cannot get you and go indoors quickly. 

[HolyCowCm]

Water Festival bubble zone areas. Sort of irrelevant at this time as no one is going to wear a wet mask and keep on replacing it, and the Omicron is no where near puttering out at spike level here yet. 

[HolyCowCm]

1 hour ago, ExpatPattaya said:

Songkran was ruined by foreigners and partiers.  Supposed to be personal and intimate, wishing others a Happy and Prosperous New Year with a handful of water gently tossed onto a friend or loved one. 

Now it is about all out water wars on the streets with buckets and water trucks and crazy plastic water guns soaking everyone.  Just another alcohol fueled frenzy ...but we like it 555

I remember over 30 years ago being chase cornered in BKK by young Thai kids on a small Klong bridge and having them spry me with water and put powder on my face. Then it was constantly being hit by Thai while riding in a tuk tuk back to the bar areas. Care to rethink your blame game on the foreingers? Has nothing to do with us.

[HolyCowCm]

1 hour ago, Smiler said:

Songkran is way out of control now anyway, you can’t go out without getting soaked by some idiot, but each to their own,  personally I hate it so will binge on Netflix till it’s over! 

I love it and always will. Even when the day comes that I need to walk with a cane.