News Forum - Phuket reports higher infection rate in second Covid tests for Test & Go travellers

[HiuMak]

Thailand is capped at 8,000 daily. Anything above 8,000 is a problem of tourism

[vvdb.fr]

I read that the PCR test was not very good for Omicron unlike Delta. The correct test for Omicron would be saliva

It is therefore necessary to do both tests for Omicron and Delta each time because Delta and Omicron exist jointly.

Thus, faced with the Delta variant, the nasopharyngeal test would be 100% reliable, against 71% for a saliva test. For the Omicron variant, it's the opposite: the saliva test would be 100% reliable, compared to 86% for a nasal test.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/14/health/saliva-testing-coronavirus-omicron.html

Edited February 3, 2022 by vvdb.fr
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[Guest1]

36 minutes ago, Stonker said:

It's very clearly stated in the original article, where I've put it in bold for you:

"Phuket’s chief health officer, Dr Koosak Kookiatkul, says 2% of international tourists tested positive on their first test, but 4% to 5% tested positive on a repeat test, mostly with the Omicron variant. (snip)

The provincial health chief says that out of Phuket’s daily average of 300 positive tests, about 100 have been international tourists."

https://thethaiger.com/news/phuket/phuket-reports-higher-infection-rate-in-second-covid-tests-for-test-go-travellers

It's also very clearly stated in the first Bangkok Post source article, where I've also put it in bold for you:

"On Tuesday, the first day Thailand resumed its Test & Go scheme, Phuket welcomed 17 Test & Go tourists and 2,439 others via its tourism sandbox programme, according to the province's immigration office. The province recorded 493 new Covid-19 infections, 387 of which were local cases, two in the Test & Go scheme and the other 104 were in the Phuket Sandbox programme, said Dr Koosak.(snip)

Of the about 300 new Covid-19 infections recorded daily, about 100 were foreign visitors arriving mainly from those two nations, he said. "Russian tourists account for a vast majority of international tourists arriving in Thailand through Phuket," the governor said.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2257883/phuket-ups-tests-on-foreign-visitors

As I tried to explain, you've simply mis-understood "arriving from abroad" as only meaning "on arrival", which while it can it very clearly doesn't here so your deduction that "if there are 100 tested positive , on arrival, and about 200 at the second test, then the 300 every day, on Phuket, fromday 5 can be only arrivals".

The problem is simply your own understanding of English - that's not a criticism in any way, but you've simply misunderstood what the Bangkok Post said, as the other Bangkok Post article and the Thaiger make clear.

So it is possible  to push you "a bit", to explain yourself. Good to know.

So we have to agree, that we disagree a bit in the reported numbers. Or in the way it gets reported, mostly.

But still, no one, till now, is answering the main question: If this 4% on day 5 are be able to track back, to be sitting for hours in a plane, aside/close to the 2%, who have tested positive on arrival, already. 

But that might be, because then not even the sandbox scheme would work at all, just a mandatory arrival quarantine of about 5 days would!

And, of course, the "not enforcing the mask mandate" with not charging on the spot fines of 2000-20.000 baht, is not helping either, then. More the opposite!

[vvdb.fr]

6 minutes ago, Guest1 said:

So it is possible  to push you "a bit", to explain yourself. Good to know.

So we have to agree, that we disagree a bit in the reported numbers. Or in the way it gets reported, mostly.

But still, no one, till now, is answering the main question: If this 4% on day 5 are be able to track back, to be sitting for hours in a plane, aside/close to the 2%, who have tested positive on arrival, already. 

But that might be, because then not even the sandbox scheme would work at all, just a mandatory arrival quarantine of about 5 days would!

And, of course, the "not enforcing the mask mandate" with not charging on the spot fines of 2000-20.000 baht, is not helping either, then. More the opposite!

the Russians move a lot in the plane. they do not respect the allocated places.

[Chatogaster]

2 hours ago, Guest1 said:

That can be, but it can  also be, that they have been sitting close to the 1-2% , in the plane, who got tested positive on arrival.

But if there are 100 tested positive , on arrival, and about 200 at the second test, then the 300 every day, on Phuket, fromday 5 can be only arrivals:

1/3 from just arriving, 2/3 from 5 days ago.

 

"[...] out of Phuket’s daily average of 300 positive tests, about 100 have been international tourists." is something very different than "100 [are] tested positive on arrival" (mostly since you've ignored day 5).

Also, instead of hypothesizing one possibility (like on-flight transmission) and inevitably getting stuck, it's much easier to consider all possibilities in one go without too many preconceptions. Here's a start...

Originally, it was estimated that PCR tests are able to detect an infection 3-4 days after exposure. Let's be optimistic and say with nowadays strains it's a mere 2 days.

Then testing negative prior to arrival but positive on day 1 (the day of arrival) means that exposure took place:

• 2-4 day prior to the flight  (remote domestic transmission)

Testing negative prior to arrival as well as on day 1, but testing positive on day 5 means that exposure took place:

• 1 day prior to the flight  (remote domestic transmission),
• the day of the flight ("in-flight" transmission), or 
• the first 2-3 days after arrival (local domestic transmission).

Now take that (sketch of a) framework, plug in some factual numbers and guesstimates (transmission rates , detection rates, demographics, etc.) and have fun.

 

[Guest1]

23 minutes ago, Chatogaster said:

Let's be optimistic and say with nowadays strains it's a mere 2 days.

Actually, that is what is expected with omicron, 2 days, 48 hs about 

And your framework would become a better "have fun" case, if the first connection can be ruled in or out: seating in the plane and the connection between day 1 and day 5 positives.

But never the less, it seems no one is really wanting to find, or point, out anything that could lead back to mandatory quarantine of minimum 3-5 days. Tourism is a fragile animal, these days

 

[LoongFred]

26 minutes ago, Chatogaster said:

"[...] out of Phuket’s daily average of 300 positive tests, about 100 have been international tourists." is something very different than "100 [are] tested positive on arrival" (mostly since you've ignored day 5).

Also, instead of hypothesizing one possibility (like on-flight transmission) and inevitably getting stuck, it's much easier to consider all possibilities in one go without too many preconceptions. Here's a start...

Originally, it was estimated that PCR tests are able to detect an infection 3-4 days after exposure. Let's be optimistic and say with nowadays strains it's a mere 2 days.

Then testing negative prior to arrival but positive on day 1 (the day of arrival) means that exposure took place:

• 2-4 day prior to the flight  (remote domestic transmission)

Testing negative prior to arrival as well as on day 1, but testing positive on day 5 means that exposure took place:

• 1 day prior to the flight  (remote domestic transmission),
• the day of the flight ("in-flight" transmission), or 
• the first 2-3 days after arrival (local domestic transmission).

Now take that (sketch of a) framework, plug in some factual numbers and guesstimates (transmission rates , detection rates, demographics, etc.) and have fun.

Way to much analysis going on. The simple fact that some are testing positive on day 5 shows extra testing is needed. It could be inconvenient for some but having them out spreading it is still worse. 

The whiners and moaners will never be happy. They'd be unhappy with any testing, then complain Noone was doing anything. 

[LoongFred]

46 minutes ago, vvdb.fr said:

I read that the PCR test was not very good for Omicron unlike Delta. The correct test for Omicron would be saliva

It is therefore necessary to do both tests for Omicron and Delta each time because Delta and Omicron exist jointly.

Thus, faced with the Delta variant, the nasopharyngeal test would be 100% reliable, against 71% for a saliva test. For the Omicron variant, it's the opposite: the saliva test would be 100% reliable, compared to 86% for a nasal test.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/14/health/saliva-testing-coronavirus-omicron.html

I don't know but would certainly trust the Thai Health department before trusting a woke rag like the NY Times.

[Jayce]

9 minutes ago, LoongFred said:

Way to much analysis going on. The simple fact that some are testing positive on day 5 shows extra testing is needed. It could be inconvenient for some but having them out spreading it is still worse. 

The whiners and moaners will never be happy. They'd be unhappy with any testing, then complain Noone was doing anything. 

It only shows that more testing in general should be done.

At this point of the pandemic, especially with Omicron and the many undetected cases in the local population, targeting tourists with a day 5 test is ludicrous and borderline xenophobia. Why let them come in the first place then?

Taking those tourists out of circulation isn't going to do anything to curb the current, existing (undetected) explosion of Omicron cases amongst locals in Thailand. The insistence that the virus that 'dirty tourists' bring in is somehow worse than a Thai person carrying and infecting others with the exact same virus is simply laughable.

[Chatogaster]

23 minutes ago, Guest1 said:

Actually, that is what is expected with omicron, 2 days, 48 hs about 

And your framework would become a better "have fun" case, if the first connection can be ruled in or out: seating in the plane and the connection between day 1 and day 5 positives.

But never the less, it seems no one is really wanting to find, or point, out anything that could lead back to mandatory quarantine of minimum 3-5 days. Tourism is a fragile animal, these days

 

But that's the thing: you can't rule it out. A non-zero percentage of the day 5 detections is indeed due to seating misfortunes. But also, a non-zero percentage is due remote domestic transmission, and yet another non-zero percentage is due to local domestic transmission.

There never is a single cause (which would be easy but boring), but rather a complex set of causes all running in parallel and interacting with each other (which is harder to find but more fun).

As for your final note: it's almost never a good idea to start out with a target (e.g. enforcing quarantine), and then go looking for data and calculations to specifically support that target. Unfortunately, it happens a lot.

 

[Guest1]

2 minutes ago, Chatogaster said:

it's almost never a good idea to start out with a target (e.g. enforcing quarantine), and then go looking for data and calculations to specifically support that target. Unfortunately, it happens a lot.

Here the target is, seems to be, NOT to have to shutdown sandbox and test&go schemes.

It started all with  -90 cases a week and we stop sandbox- 

But they never had exactly 90 in 7 days, huu? ;-)

 

[riclag]

1 hour ago, DFPhuket said:

It is misleading to compare the positive rate of international travelers, 100% who are tested on arrival, again on day 5/6 and most again when they fly home, to the miniscule number of locals tested. Omicron usually has an incubation period of 2-3 days so the majority of international travelers positive on day 5/6 picked it up in Thailand.

For locals and expats living in Thailand, unless there are significant symptoms, people are not going to take a PCR, get a positive result, and be forced into a hospital. They will stay home, recover and never be added to the local case count. 

The possibility of a Pcr testing positive and being forced into a Q room  will weigh heavy on “any future plans” that require traveling by plane ,domestically or internationally!

 

[Chatogaster]

24 minutes ago, LoongFred said:

Way to much analysis going on. The simple fact that some are testing positive on day 5 shows extra testing is needed. It could be inconvenient for some but having them out spreading it is still worse. 

The whiners and moaners will never be happy. They'd be unhappy with any testing, then complain Noone was doing anything. 

 

If you want to find out how much is due to on-flight spreading (and the OP seemed interested in that), it's this kind of analysis (unless you're happy if somebody just makes up a number like the 1-2% that was mentioned).

If you want to figure out if enough testing is done (which is what you're interested in): sure, skip it as there are much easier and more effective ways to determine that.
 

 

[Chatogaster]

7 minutes ago, Guest1 said:

Here the target is, seems to be, NOT to have to shutdown sandbox and test&go schemes.

It started all with  -90 cases a week and we stop sandbox- 

But they never had exactly 90 in 7 days, huu? ;-)

Yes (like I said: it happens a lot). I've decided long ago to consider it funny or insightful whenever I see it happening instead of getting all worked up about it. Works most of the time...

[AussieBob]

Thai apologists aside - this was so obvious that it beggars belief that the Thai/Phuket Govt did not expect it.  Thailand is like any other country - rampant with Omicron.  Tourists are far more likely to catch Covid from Thais and other locals, then the other way around. Australia had very few cases and any 'outbreak' was brought under control - and then Omicron arrived - cases have skyrocketed and the Govts are starting to ease restrictions.  Daily worldwide infections skyrocketed when Omicron hit, and they are only now starting to slow.  Travelling internationally to a country like Thailand that quarantines tourists who catch Covid from the locals, while 'suppressing' the daily Covid new case numbers, is not a very wise thing to do at the moment.  Wait a while I reckon. 

 

 

Edited February 3, 2022 by Faz
Graph removed

[LoongFred]

4 hours ago, bbbbooboo said:

A suspicious person might think that a lot of money is being made out of covid quarantine generally and people who test positive on the second test. It goes like this : test on arrival negative(hurrah.... I'm so relieved), leave and go around Thailand on your holiday( which is why you came here remember ?) and get infected with covid( what a surprise as there's only 63 million people in Thailand ?), then test positive on 5 th day test= compulsory isolation for 10 days in a facility with hiked up room prices and medical costs and the end to your holiday. Its lucky i'm not a suspicious person( Hush my mouth)   

You need to present some proof before accusing others. What kind of off quarantine places are you staying at? I'm sure providing quarantine space is costly so it's possible that no rip off in actuality. Of course begpackers and cheap Charlies will object. What about thanking your host for your wellbeing?

[satpete]

the whole staff of each hotel, restaurant, bar, shopping-mall, taxi drivers should be tested by pcr test every 5 days, then you will see the real reason of the later infections of tourists

 

[LoongFred]

1 hour ago, Chatogaster said:

If you want to find out how much is due to on-flight spreading (and the OP seemed interested in that), it's this kind of analysis (unless you're happy if somebody just makes up a number like the 1-2% that was mentioned).

If you want to figure out if enough testing is done (which is what you're interested in): sure, skip it as there are much easier and more effective ways to determine that.
 

Thanks for your advice, but I'm not currently traveling. I live in Thailand and I'm pretty much staying put and following the rules. 

It makes no difference to me where people are infected. They're at high risk and need to be tested to prevent further spread. I tend to trust the information coming out from the Thai health dept. and not so much from amateurs on a forum. No personal attach intended but I trust the experts who have a lot more information available.

I understand your disappointment somewhat, but your a guest here as am I, so it's best to keep cool and go along for the ride.

[Guest1]

3 hours ago, DFPhuket said:

Omicron usually has an incubation period of 2-3 days so the majority of international travelers positive on day 5/6 picked it up in Thailand.

Can be, but it can also be, that they are positive from day one or day two of their Test (arrival day) & go ( to infect others, by wearing the mask u der the nose or chin)

The 5 day rule for test 2 makes that impossible to verify.

On the other hand, someone who gets tested positive at the end of a 10day to xx week trip has for certain gotten it IN Thailand.

I would know a little help, out of these:

Get them one ATK test, one of the "good one" , every day to do till day 5. And done by medical teams, which are cruising around on Phuket. Labour is cheap, the ATK tests are not expensive , that would catch the one or the other infected person BEFORE the 5. day, methinks

[Alavan]

2 hours ago, LoongFred said:

I don't know but would certainly trust the Thai Health department before trusting a woke rag like the NY Times.

The NYT and other news sources got this from ewperts world wide.
Fact is that omicron works more on the troath than on the lungs, so for original and delta attacking the lungs a nose swab is better, for omicron a throat swab seems to be better.
You can also have a PCR test on a throat swab.
An expert even said to first swab the throat and then the nose in the same test.

[Stonker]

2 hours ago, LoongFred said:

Way to much analysis going on. The simple fact that some are testing positive on day 5 shows extra testing is needed. It could be inconvenient for some but having them out spreading it is still worse. 

The whiners and moaners will never be happy. They'd be unhappy with any testing, then complain Noone was doing anything. 

Exactly.  Spot on, on all counts.

It shouldn't take Sherlock Holmes to work out that if people are infected and unmasked in the confines of a plane they're likely to infect at least a couple of others on the plane - which just happens to be consistent with the numbers here.

[Stonker]

2 hours ago, Jayce said:

The insistence that the virus that 'dirty tourists' bring in is somehow worse than a Thai person carrying and infecting others with the exact same virus is simply laughable.

Very probably why nobody, anywhere, is insisting that or even suggesting it - apart from the occasional poster here insisting that others are insisting it.

[Chatogaster]

52 minutes ago, LoongFred said:

Thanks for your advice, but I'm not currently traveling. I live in Thailand and I'm pretty much staying put and following the rules. 

It makes no difference to me where people are infected. They're at high risk and need to be tested to prevent further spread. I tend to trust the information coming out from the Thai health dept. and not so much from amateurs on a forum. No personal attach intended but I trust the experts who have a lot more information available.

I understand your disappointment somewhat, but your a guest here as am I, so it's best to keep cool and go along for the ride.

 

I'm pretty sure you misinterpreted my post(s). 

Nothing in what I wrote was intended as travel advice (where did that come from?), and like you, I'm a mindful local who adheres to the guidelines without grumbling and who isn't by default distrustful of what the CCSA outputs (critical at most, but only in the sense that I don't limit myself to the executive summary).

The sub-thread (where I hooked into) was about how you could explain or figure out certain causes and ratios. I took that as a purely intellectual exercise (which is fun), without emotional attachment or political motivation/bias. You say you understand my disappointment but I honestly don't have a clue what it is I could be disappointed about.

In the future don't try to find arbitrary meanings in-between my lines, because all of my content is in the lines themselves and you're likely to mess up again if you forget that.

 

[Stonker]

15 minutes ago, Alavan said:

An expert even said to first swab the throat and then the nose in the same test.

I've seen an increasing number of experts suggesting that ... some even clarified that you should use two separate swabs, as apparently some well intentioned staff hadn't been !

[Bangkok]

No foreigners get home quarantine. Many on YouTube have tested positive without any symptoms whatsoever but are still transferred to hospital hotels which cost them 3 times the normal rate.

It's a scam to exploit covid and force foreigners to spend more money.

Anyone who says otherwise is purposely misleading this community in order to support the government and exploitation of foreigners.