News Forum - Dr Yong: I don’t think “endemic” means what you think it means.

[JJJ]

8 minutes ago, BlueSphinx said:

Thanks, it is clear that dr Yong does not understand what 'endemic' means, and that he is confusing the issue by adding criteria that have nothing to do with it (like limiting endemicity to regional areas, or adding lethality or response measures to the issue).  

As I wrote > Dr Yong, the Master of Muddled Thinking has spoken again....

Exactly. Covid could very well be endemic in Thailand or Europe but still be an epidemic in China because there’s no immunity. 

[Chatogaster]

 

Thailand (like a.o. Spain) intends to consider/categorize/treat covid-19 as an endemic disease, which signifies that it will be something that is a natural part of Thai society (and has settled to a manageable rate of occurrence).

It's admittedly a bit of a stretch to use the word endemic in this way, but I'm not bothered by it (just like I don't mind tomatoes being called vegetables). Language is fluid and I expect that dictionaries will simply be adapted to reflect this meaning (the alternative is the invention of a new word or something convoluted like "wonted pandemic").
 

 

[JJJ]

11 minutes ago, Chatogaster said:

Thailand (like a.o. Spain) intends to consider/categorize/treat covid-19 as an endemic disease, which signifies that it will be something that is a natural part of Thai society (and has settled to a manageable rate of occurrence).

It's admittedly a bit of a stretch to use the word endemic in this way, but I'm not bothered by it (just like I don't mind tomatoes being called vegetables). Language is fluid and I expect that dictionaries will simply be adapted to reflect this meaning (the alternative is the invention of a new word or something convoluted like "wonted pandemic").
 

I’m not sure it’s a stretch.
 

Endemic and endemicity have specific meanings within epidemiology-> sporadic, endemic, epidemic, pandemic. Indeed there’s high endemicity and low endemicity disease. Academia has a way of destroying words and then introducing them to the population — incentivize, my most hated.  
 

Endemic of course has non-scientific meaning that we’re used to meaning something similar to inherent or persistent (usually in terms of something bad). But I suppose charity could become endemic in society?

[Stonker]

12 hours ago, Freeduhdumb said:

Would it be correct to consider this Pandemic now globally endemic, or put another way, an endemic pandemic? The ultimate point being made here, by me and the Thai government is, like the flu, we have a new global disease and all of it's current and future variants that is now with us globally; we need to recognize that it is not killing us all like was previously modeled by your virologist colleagues. In other words, it's time to accept this disease and end all of the clearly ineffective, draconian measures, such as lockdowns and instead get back to treating people with current and future treatments. Surely, the vaccination campaign, lockdowns, mask mandates, sanitizers etc. can no longer be considered a panacea? 

https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/public-health-now/news/epidemic-endemic-pandemic-what-are-differences

No, it wouldn't be  "correct to consider this Pandemic now globally endemic, or put another way, an endemic pandemic", any more than it would be correct to consider that black is white or put another way a black white.

It would be simply plain stupid.

[Cabra]

Webster's definition: Endemic (of a disease or condition) regularly found among particular people or in a certain area.

The flu is endemic to many countries. But it's not a pandemic

On the other hand, the WHO defines endemic, epidemic and pandemic based in the rate of spread:

https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/public-health-now/news/epidemic-endemic-pandemic-what-are-differences

A lot of this is academic double talk. We just need to learn to live with this thing in a smart and more reasonable way. The West is moving much quicker in that direction while Asia is not. I don't see a lot changing in 2022. Unfortunately. Not in Asia.

[mcambl61]

Aaaaaaannnnnddddd... 

 

The fear mongering propaganda can never be allowed to end, unless people are clear eyed enough to stop believing this has a high fatality rate. 

 

 

Open everything and stop destroying people's lives. 

[Wormwood]

5 minutes ago, mcambl61 said:

Aaaaaaannnnnddddd... 

The fear mongering propaganda can never be allowed to end, unless people are clear eyed enough to stop believing this has a high fatality rate. 

Open everything and stop destroying people's lives. 

Agree 100%

[LoongFred]

21 minutes ago, Cabra said:

Webster's definition: Endemic (of a disease or condition) regularly found among particular people or in a certain area.

The flu is endemic to many countries. But it's not a pandemic

On the other hand, the WHO defines endemic, epidemic and pandemic based in the rate of spread:

https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/public-health-now/news/epidemic-endemic-pandemic-what-are-differences

A lot of this is academic double talk. We just need to learn to live with this thing in a smart and more reasonable way. The West is moving much quicker in that direction while Asia is not. I don't see a lot changing in 2022. Unfortunately. Not in Asia.

Why then has Thailand had a better success dealing with covid than the EU or America. Thailand has been proactive in providing protective measure for the population including vaccines, masks, and restrictions of high risk venues. Reported/discovered cases seem much lower and more manageable. Thailand was smart to develop its own course of action and what benefits Thais.  

Complaining falangs just need to deal with it. This most likely has a negative affect on those who want to socialize in bars and other sleazy places, but as long as it protects the Thai population, I feel it's good.

Perhaps the authorities realize that the sleaze hurts Thai society more than the small profits help. They don't profit from me because I don't go to such places, but I'm aware of the harm done.  

 

[mcambl61]

1 minute ago, LoongFred said:

Why then has Thailand had a better success dealing with covid than the EU or America. Thailand has been proactive in providing protective measure for the population including vaccines, masks, and restrictions of high risk venues. Reported/discovered cases seem much lower and more manageable. Thailand was smart to develop its own course of action and what benefits Thais.  

Complaining falangs just need to deal with it. This most likely has a negative affect on those who want to socialize in bars and other sleazy places, but as long as it protects the Thai population, I feel it's good.

Perhaps the authorities realize that the sleaze hurts Thai society more than the small profits help. They don't profit from me because I don't go to such places, but I'm aware of the harm done.  

Complete virtue signaling nonsense. 

 

All the business owners would beg to differ with your ridiculous assertions and generalizations. 

 

Hotels, airlines, restaurants, and all other businesses that supply these businesses. 

 

Your post is very ignorant. 

[Cabra]

3 minutes ago, LoongFred said:

Why then has Thailand had a better success dealing with covid than the EU or America. Thailand has been proactive in providing protective measure for the population including vaccines, masks, and restrictions of high risk venues. Reported/discovered cases seem much lower and more manageable. Thailand was smart to develop its own course of action and what benefits Thais.  

Complaining falangs just need to deal with it. This most likely has a negative affect on those who want to socialize in bars and other sleazy places, but as long as it protects the Thai population, I feel it's good.

Perhaps the authorities realize that the sleaze hurts Thai society more than the small profits help. They don't profit from me because I don't go to such places, but I'm aware of the harm done.  

You missed the point... Academia debating definition is pointless. And I'm not complaining about THA. You are overreacting. They are doing the best they know how (regardless of their many missteps); and even if Bloomberg's global covid resiliance rating for THA is mediocre (for whatever that's worth). All that aside. It's time to move on. Get the unvaccinated vaccinated, and stop victimizing asymptomatic covid cases. Your rant about sleaze and sex tourist is irrelevant as those avenues have been seriously constrained since the early days of the pandemic. If you are afraid of those things reemerging as things open, you have not been paying attention... it never really stopped. And it never will. Does not affect me.

[Stardust]

38 minutes ago, mcambl61 said:

Complete virtue signaling nonsense. 

All the business owners would beg to differ with your ridiculous assertions and generalizations. 

Hotels, airlines, restaurants, and all other businesses that supply these businesses. 

Your post is very ignorant. 

Exactly and he is definetly not talking for the majority of Thais but abuse them for his own agenda. If he would watch thai tv he would know what the majority of Thais thinks and his claims are a minority. And also what the  majority is and will vote for.

[Stonker]

6 hours ago, Wormwood said:

I don’t expect you to understand this as it will require you to think. The numbers are figures I got from other sources. That means I did not pull them out of thin air as you did with your garbage. 
“Reduced other deaths from respiratory diseases by a factor of ten” ?? Where did you get that? That must be the fudging you mentioned.

No need to be childishly abusive - there's plenty of that here already from your fellow sceptics.

I all you had to do was ask over the "factor of ten", as it's from the Thai Department of Disease Control (DDC), reported by Khaosod so easily available:

https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/crimecourtscalamity/2020/11/19/2020s-flu-cases-plunge-in-covid-anxious-thailand/

Deaths dropped by 90% (a "factor of ten") and cases by "a whopping 70 percent drop".

I doubt the DDC pulled it out of thin air or fudged it.

6 hours ago, Wormwood said:

lastly Covid is about 2 years old so the time scale is limited to two years. That is a simple concept I think. Not 20 years not 5 years… 2 years. Based on the content of you comment I am probably expecting to much from you. It seems that simple numbers and logic are as a foreign language to you. 

It's a "simple concept" but it's badly flawed.

Yes, Covid is "around two years old" and Thailand has had 22,126 deaths in that time but over 22,000 of them have been since early April 2021 as before then the virus was effectively contained.

In "simple" terms, if you have a rabid dog and want to know how many people it's bitten per day do you count the period since it became infected including the time it was caged, or just the time when it was loose?

"Logic" would tell most people that you only count the time it was loose - but evidently not you.

[Stonker]

5 hours ago, BlueSphinx said:

Thanks, it is clear that dr Yong does not understand what 'endemic' means, and that he is confusing the issue by adding criteria that have nothing to do with it (like limiting endemicity to regional areas, or adding lethality or response measures to the issue).  

As I wrote > Dr Yong, the Master of Muddled Thinking has spoken again....

What's clear is that he knows exactly what 'endemic' means, and that what you're saying he said is simply untrue:

As the original article said:

en·dem·ic /enˈdemik/
adjective
1. (of a disease or condition) regularly found among particular people or in a certain area.
2. (of a plant or animal) native and restricted to a certain place.

That's exactly what he said and exactly the terminology he is reported as using (I've put them both in bold in case there's any confusion:

"He explained that Covid-19 has spread all over the world and will not be confined to a certain area, so there is no chance it will become endemic."

You've simply fabricated something he never said (and that's putting it politely).

 

 

 

[Stonker]

5 hours ago, JJJ said:

Exactly. Covid could very well be endemic in Thailand or Europe but still be an epidemic in China because there’s no immunity. 

Not by any recognised definition of the word.

[Stonker]

13 hours ago, Notadoctor said:

Huh?

Good Doctor should stick with playing with viruses.  Obviously lacking in linguistics. 

Why would he need to be good in "linguistics", although as he was a research fellow at King's College Hospital in the UK I suspect his English is reasonable?

His blog where this was posted is in Thai.

https://web.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/254449156173416/

[Chatogaster]

5 hours ago, JJJ said:

I’m not sure it’s a stretch.
 

Endemic and endemicity have specific meanings within epidemiology-> sporadic, endemic, epidemic, pandemic. Indeed there’s high endemicity and low endemicity disease. Academia has a way of destroying words and then introducing them to the population — incentivize, my most hated.  
 

Endemic of course has non-scientific meaning that we’re used to meaning something similar to inherent or persistent (usually in terms of something bad). But I suppose charity could become endemic in society?

 

For "endemicity" there isn't a big division between scientific and popular definitions; they all describe the aspect of something being present (at a more or less constant rate) in a particular geographic area or population. The amount of stretching going on depends on how much one insists on the "particular" part.

Personally, I don't see what the fuss in this thread is all about. Instead of arguing about how well or bad "endemic" describes the anticipated status quo/future, it'd be more interesting what it actually might look like.

For example, if/when Covid is considered endemic, will that mean that all tourism restrictions (quarantine, mandatory tests, tracking etc.) are lifted? After all, if a disease is truly endemic to Thailand, Thailand can hardly argue it must go all out to prevent it from entering the country.

 

[Stonker]

1 hour ago, Chatogaster said:

After all, if a disease is truly endemic to Thailand, Thailand can hardly argue it must go all out to prevent it from entering the country.

Agreed it's a bit of an academic argument, but actually the reverse would be true - keeping it endemic would be a very good argument for sealing the borders completely (not that it's one I'd use) .

[Chatogaster]

31 minutes ago, Stonker said:

Agreed it's a bit of an academic argument, but actually the reverse would be true - keeping it endemic would be a very good argument for sealing the borders completely (not that it's one I'd use) .

I know, and I can also imagine some persuading arguments Thai government could come up with to keep most restrictions in place while at the same time sticking to the endemic narrative. Elaborating on that would have distracted from the key message that word-spins are way less interesting than actual policy.

[DrPhibes]

'nuff said.

[noosard]

Omnicron is  deadly like the rest of the mutants

Australia is proof of this

Took Oz nearly 2 years to have 210k cases with 2000 deaths

In the last 2 months cases have reached 2.5 million with 3500 deaths

The mass jump in case numbers was caused by the State govs letting go

Edited February 1, 2022 by noosard
additional thought

[JJJ]

On 1/31/2022 at 3:51 PM, Chatogaster said:

For "endemicity" there isn't a big division between scientific and popular definitions; they all describe the aspect of something being present (at a more or less constant rate) in a particular geographic area or population. The amount of stretching going on depends on how much one insists on the "particular" part.

Personally, I don't see what the fuss in this thread is all about. Instead of arguing about how well or bad "endemic" describes the anticipated status quo/future, it'd be more interesting what it actually might look like.

For example, if/when Covid is considered endemic, will that mean that all tourism restrictions (quarantine, mandatory tests, tracking etc.) are lifted? After all, if a disease is truly endemic to Thailand, Thailand can hardly argue it must go all out to prevent it from entering the country.

This is of course the question that should be asked as well as whether the “terms” to eliminating the pandemic hysteria set out by the government are reasonable. 

The frustration comes because Dr Yong is the one who could raise this question for the Thai people to better understand and help set reasonable expeditions. 

But his response shows to those hoping for a reasonable, proportionate, and reasoned response going forward that the pandemic of idiocy is likely to continue.