News Forum - Dr Yong: I don’t think “endemic” means what you think it means.

[Thaiger]

Dr Yong Poovorawan, the country’s outspoken top virologist, is raining on Thailand’s endemic parade. The chief of the Centre of Excellence in Clinical Virology at the Faculty of Medicine of Chulalongkorn University pointed out that while the nature of Covid-19 may be evolving over time to be less of a threat, it will never by definition be endemic. It seems in the Thai government’s fervour to end the Covid-19 pandemic, they overlooked the actual meaning of the words they are announcing, according to Dr. Yong. en·dem·ic   /enˈdemik/ adjective 1. (of a disease or condition) regularly found among particular people or […]

The story Dr Yong: I don’t think “endemic” means what you think it means. as seen on Thaiger News.

Read the full story

[BlueSphinx]

The Master of Muddled Thinking has spoken again....

[DollhinSpirit]

I am a US virologist and Dr Yong is absolutely correct. The Thai government in their zeal to minimize the situation (for the tourism economy) is again saying things publicly that are more wishful thinking than fact.

Edited January 30, 2022 by DollhinSpirit
Grammer

[Rookiescot]

Thing is we are now reaching the end game for covid. Do we wish vaccines gave immunity? Yup but all they seem to provide is protection against severe illness.

Do we wish natural immunity by having caught the virus previously gave immunity? Would be nice but its not happening. 

So ultimately we are going to have to accept that its here to stay. Its going to constantly mutate which means we will all catch it over and over again.

The dreaded big pharma (as demonised by a certain group) need to come up with better post infection medications because what we are doing at the moment is not working. And no. That does not include Ivermectin which has been proven to be useless. 

However life and travel will need to return to normal at some point.

Its been two years. Omicron is not as deadly as previous variants. 

Thats not to say that the virus could mutate again into some seriously worse disease but its unlikely.

So we all need to accept it. Its here now, its a thing. Its going to keep on killing people who are vulnerable in the same way colds and flu do. And we should do everything we can to protect those people. Which includes wearing masks and getting vaccinated.

And we also need to find out why this virus started an if people are playing God with this kind of stuff it needs to be stopped.

Humans lived in caves along with bats for thousands of years and this virus never crossed over.

[JJJ]

This criticism makes no sense. While perhaps an unreputable source, Harvard describes it:

“The expectation that COVID-19 will become endemic essentially means that the pandemic will not end with the virus disappearing; instead, the optimistic view is that enough people will gain immune protection from vaccination and from natural infection such that there will be less transmission and much less COVID-19-related hospitalization and death, even as the virus continues to circulate.”

Technically the “definition” is less strict than the so called Thai test — endemic deals with reproduction and spread and not exactly fatality. A disease can both by endemic with a high case fatality rate as I understand it. 
 

https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/features/what-will-it-be-like-when-covid-19-becomes-endemic/

[Stonker]

1 hour ago, DollhinSpirit said:

I am a US virologist and Dr Yong is absolutely correct. The Thai government in their zeal to minimize the situation (for the tourism economy) is again saying things publicly that are more wishful thinking than fact.

Spot on.

[Stonker]

26 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

Thing is we are now reaching the end game for covid. Do we wish vaccines gave immunity? Yup but all they seem to provide is protection against severe illness.

Do we wish natural immunity by having caught the virus previously gave immunity? Would be nice but its not happening. 

So ultimately we are going to have to accept that its here to stay. Its going to constantly mutate which means we will all catch it over and over again.

The dreaded big pharma (as demonised by a certain group) need to come up with better post infection medications because what we are doing at the moment is not working. And no. That does not include Ivermectin which has been proven to be useless. 

However life and travel will need to return to normal at some point.

Its been two years. Omicron is not as deadly as previous variants. 

Thats not to say that the virus could mutate again into some seriously worse disease but its unlikely.

So we all need to accept it. Its here now, its a thing. Its going to keep on killing people who are vulnerable in the same way colds and flu do. And we should do everything we can to protect those people. Which includes wearing masks and getting vaccinated.

And we also need to find out why this virus started an if people are playing God with this kind of stuff it needs to be stopped.

Humans lived in caves along with bats for thousands of years and this virus never crossed over.

And spot on again - 'living with Covid' doesn't mean ignoring it and pretending it's not there.

[Guest1]

But it is not only the Thai government, that is using "endemic", to decribe a "we have to.live with it, it is now there, like the flue is, too" situation, they all wanna get from this pan(dem)ic. 

[Stonker]

15 minutes ago, JJJ said:

This criticism makes no sense. While perhaps an unreputable source, Harvard describes it:

“The expectation that COVID-19 will become endemic essentially means that the pandemic will not end with the virus disappearing; instead, the optimistic view is that enough people will gain immune protection from vaccination and from natural infection such that there will be less transmission and much less COVID-19-related hospitalization and death, even as the virus continues to circulate.”

Technically the “definition” is less strict than the so called Thai test — endemic deals with reproduction and spread and not exactly fatality. A disease can both by endemic with a high case fatality rate as I understand it. 
 

https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/features/what-will-it-be-like-when-covid-19-becomes-endemic/

While your link is reputable, you've quoted a part of it that has no bearing on the meaning of 'endemic', and regardless of whether you've misunderstood the report or done so deliberately your "definition" of what 'endemic' means is not supported by your link.

The relevant part from your link is:

"it’s hard to anticipate what the timeline will be for the expected shift of COVID-19 to endemicity. It’s dependent on factors like the strength and duration of immune protection from vaccination and natural infection, our patterns of contact with one another that allow spread, and the transmissibility of the virus. "

Given the current known "strength and duration of immune protection from vaccination and natural infection ... , ... and the transmissibility of the virus", which are completely outside Thailand's control, then unless the vaccine manufacturers do a lot better very soon there is absolutely zero chance that Covid will be endemic here by the end of the year.

[Stonker]

17 minutes ago, Guest1 said:

But it is not only the Thai government, that is using "endemic", to decribe a "we have to.live with it, it is now there, like the flue is, too" situation, they all wanna get from this pan(dem)ic. 

I think it would be more than fair to say we all 'wanna get from this pandemic', but if wishes were horses beggars would ride.

 

[Freeduhdumb]

It's interesting how the Thai Tiger article uses different wording than the source article from the NationThailand article. 

I would opine that maybe, just maybe Dr Yong Poovorawan may also be a bit confused on definitions? Again, just my opinion, The good Dr. here has confused an Epidemic with Endemic?

"However, he pointed out that “endemic” describes a disease that is confined to a certain area – such as Yellow Fever in Africa or MERS in the Middle East – while a pandemic describes a worldwide outbreak."

https://www.nationthailand.com/life/40011675

[Freeduhdumb]

2 hours ago, DollhinSpirit said:

I am a US virologist and Dr Yong is absolutely correct. The Thai government in their zeal to minimize the situation (for the tourism economy) is again saying things publicly that are more wishful thinking than fact.

It seems to me that Dr. Yong is using endemic in the place of epidemic?

"However, he pointed out that “endemic” describes a disease that is confined to a certain area – such as Yellow Fever in Africa or MERS in the Middle East – while a pandemic describes a worldwide outbreak."

https://www.nationthailand.com/life/40011675

Would it be correct to consider this Pandemic now globally endemic, or put another way, an endemic pandemic? The ultimate point being made here, by me and the Thai government is, like the flu, we have a new global disease and all of it's current and future variants that is now with us globally; we need to recognize that it is not killing us all like was previously modeled by your virologist colleagues. In other words, it's time to accept this disease and end all of the clearly ineffective, draconian measures, such as lockdowns and instead get back to treating people with current and future treatments. Surely, the vaccination campaign, lockdowns, mask mandates, sanitizers etc. can no longer be considered a panacea? 

https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/public-health-now/news/epidemic-endemic-pandemic-what-are-differences

 

Edited January 30, 2022 by Freeduhdumb
additional

[JJJ]

To be fair, this response completely lacks logic or reason.
 

My OP quotes the definition precisely. The new quotes about immunity have nothing to do with the definition of endemic or endemicity. They are irrelevant to the question posed. Those are questions about when the endemic phase is reached, if ever.  

it appears the poster and Dr Yong lack basic definitional understandings and logical reasoning, which calls into question whether any statements should be relied upon at all.
 

35 minutes ago, Stonker said:

While your link is reputable, you've quoted a part of it that has no bearing on the meaning of 'endemic', and regardless of whether you've misunderstood the report or done so deliberately your "definition" of what 'endemic' means is not supported by your link.

The relevant part from your link is:

"it’s hard to anticipate what the timeline will be for the expected shift of COVID-19 to endemicity. It’s dependent on factors like the strength and duration of immune protection from vaccination and natural infection, our patterns of contact with one another that allow spread, and the transmissibility of the virus. "

Given the current known "strength and duration of immune protection from vaccination and natural infection ... , ... and the transmissibility of the virus", which are completely outside Thailand's control, then unless the vaccine manufacturers do a lot better very soon there is absolutely zero chance that Covid will be endemic here by the end of the year.

 

 

[Wormwood]

3 hours ago, Thaiger said:

Dr Yong Poovorawan, the country’s outspoken top virologist, is raining on Thailand’s endemic parade. The chief of the Centre of Excellence in Clinical Virology at the Faculty of Medicine of Chulalongkorn University pointed out that while the nature of Covid-19 may be evolving over time to be less of a threat, it will never by definition be endemic. It seems in the Thai government’s fervour to end the Covid-19 pandemic, they overlooked the actual meaning of the words they are announcing, according to Dr. Yong. en·dem·ic   /enˈdemik/ adjective 1. (of a disease or condition) regularly found among particular people or […]

The story Dr Yong: I don’t think “endemic” means what you think it means. as seen on Thaiger News.

Read the full story

Just food for thought. More people die in Thailand each year in car accidents than died from Covid! National average for fatal motor vehicle accidents is 12,000 a year. For two years that is 24,000 deaths. Total deaths from Covid in two years, just over 22,000 as reported by the Thaiger.

Seems odd that few people think twice about driving around town but Covid is likened to the Black Death. 
 

According to the article listed below and average of 50 people die a day due to traffic fatalities. However Covid deaths as of late have been 12 or so a day. Just saying a little perspective goes a long way. If you heed it. For those that don’t… reality sucks for those that disagree with it.
 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0386111214601229

 

Edited January 30, 2022 by Wormwood

[Stonker]

1 hour ago, Freeduhdumb said:

I would opine that maybe, just maybe Dr Yong Poovorawan may also be a bit confused on definitions? Again, just my opinion, The good Dr. here has confused an Epidemic with Endemic?

"However, he pointed out that “endemic” describes a disease that is confined to a certain area – such as Yellow Fever in Africa or MERS in the Middle East – while a pandemic describes a worldwide outbreak."

https://www.nationthailand.com/life/40011675

I don't think Dr Yong's "confused", but you seem to be - what's described in the quote you gave is 'endemic'

[Stonker]

34 minutes ago, Wormwood said:

Just food for thought. More people die in Thailand each year in car accidents than died from Covid! National average for fatal motor vehicle accidents is 12,000 a year. For two years that is 24,000 deaths. Total deaths from Covid in two years, just over 22,000 as reported by the Thaiger.

Seems odd that few people think twice about driving around town but Covid is likened to the Black Death. 
 

According to the article listed below and average of 50 people die a day due to traffic fatalities. However Covid deaths as of late have been 12 or so a day. Just saying a little perspective goes a long way. If you heed it. For those that don’t… reality sucks for those that disagree with it.
 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0386111214601229

Love your maths!

 So, accepting your figures for the sake of argument, over the last year Thailand's had 22,000 Covid deaths and 'only' 12,000 road deaths so that looks pretty bad as it's nearly twice as many Covid deaths  - and if you factor in that all the restrictions  have reduced other deaths from respiratory diseases by a factor of ten, then if we hadn't had the restrictions we have like mask wearing that'd be maybe 220,000 Covid deaths vs 12,000 road deaths ...

... that looks pretty grim ...

... but over two years Thailand's had 22,000 Covid deaths and 24,000 road deaths ...

... and over ten years Thailand's had 22,000 Covid deaths and 120,000 road deaths.

... and over twenty years Thailand's had 22,000 Covid deaths and 240,000 road deaths.

Let's go for the twenty years and 240,000 road deaths, then it's over ten times as many so there are hardly any Covid deaths at all really !

... reality really sucks for those that disagree with it, or that can't fudge the figures to suit themselves

[Bangkok_Gary]

Barely a couple of months after Omicron appeared and spread around the world, a variant of Omicron (BA.2) has appeared which is more infectious than Omicron. It appears the evolutionary process of the virus has gone into over-drive which raises the prospect of new variants appearing every couple of months and endless waves of infection. The oft expressed hope that the pandemic will soon be over seems overly optimistic.

[Stonker]

2 hours ago, JJJ said:

My OP quotes the definition precisely

Really? Where?

This is your original post in its entireity:

3 hours ago, JJJ said:

This criticism makes no sense. While perhaps an unreputable source, Harvard describes it:

“The expectation that COVID-19 will become endemic essentially means that the pandemic will not end with the virus disappearing; instead, the optimistic view is that enough people will gain immune protection from vaccination and from natural infection such that there will be less transmission and much less COVID-19-related hospitalization and death, even as the virus continues to circulate.”

Technically the “definition” is less strict than the so called Thai test — endemic deals with reproduction and spread and not exactly fatality. A disease can both by endemic with a high case fatality rate as I understand it. 
 

https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/features/what-will-it-be-like-when-covid-19-becomes-endemic/

Maybe you could "quote the definition precisely" again, just so there's no confusion since there's clearly no definition in your OP !

The article gives a definition, but you don't and neither does your link.

2 hours ago, JJJ said:

The new quotes about immunity have nothing to do with the definition of endemic or endemicity.  

Well ... yes ... there is no "definition of endemic or endemicity" in the article you linked to or your OP, only in the original Thaiger article, so I quoted the only part relevant to the Thaiger article, which were conditions that your link said had to be met before the pandemic could become endemic.

[Notadoctor]

Huh?

Good Doctor should stick with playing with viruses.  Obviously lacking in linguistics. 

[Wormwood]

14 hours ago, Stonker said:

Love your maths!

 So, accepting your figures for the sake of argument, over the last year Thailand's had 22,000 Covid deaths and 'only' 12,000 road deaths so that looks pretty bad as it's nearly twice as many Covid deaths  - and if you factor in that all the restrictions  have reduced other deaths from respiratory diseases by a factor of ten, then if we hadn't had the restrictions we have like mask wearing that'd be maybe 220,000 Covid deaths vs 12,000 road deaths ...

... that looks pretty grim ...

... but over two years Thailand's had 22,000 Covid deaths and 24,000 road deaths ...

... and over ten years Thailand's had 22,000 Covid deaths and 120,000 road deaths.

... and over twenty years Thailand's had 22,000 Covid deaths and 240,000 road deaths.

Let's go for the twenty years and 240,000 road deaths, then it's over ten times as many so there are hardly any Covid deaths at all really !

... reality really sucks for those that disagree with it, or that can't fudge the figures to suit themselves

I don’t expect you to understand this as it will require you to think. The numbers are figures I got from other sources. That means I did not pull them out of thin air as you did with your garbage. 
“Reduced other deaths from respiratory diseases by a factor of ten” ?? Where did you get that? That must be the fudging you mentioned.

lastly Covid is about 2 years old so the time scale is limited to two years. That is a simple concept I think. Not 20 years not 5 years… 2 years. Based on the content of you comment I am probably expecting to much from you. It seems that simple numbers and logic are as a foreign language to you. 

Edited January 31, 2022 by KaptainRob
Abusive comment removed

[Soidog]

8 hours ago, Wormwood said:

Just food for thought. More people die in Thailand each year in car accidents than died from Covid! National average for fatal motor vehicle accidents is 12,000 a year. For two years that is 24,000 deaths. Total deaths from Covid in two years, just over 22,000 as reported by the Thaiger.

Understand the sentiment in terms of numbers; although the annual average road deaths is more like 22,000, which supports your position. However, the thing so many people simply will not grasp, is that these 22,000 Covid deaths occurred because we had lockdowns, border closures, masks wearing, work from home, school closures, entertainment closures etc. Had we not had those restrictions then the chances are it would have been 50,000 to 100,000 Covid deaths and just like the Black Death! 

[Wormwood]

22 minutes ago, Soidog said:

Understand the sentiment in terms of numbers; although the annual average road deaths is more like 22,000, which supports your position. However, the thing so many people simply will not grasp, is that these 22,000 Covid deaths occurred because we had lockdowns, border closures, masks wearing, work from home, school closures, entertainment closures etc. Had we not had those restrictions then the chances are it would have been 50,000 to 100,000 Covid deaths and just like the Black Death! 

I understand your position. However there are mixed reviews as to if masks, lockdowns, or work from home orders really curbed the spread of Covid. In areas with high restrictions Covid numbers seem to be just as high as places with little restrictions. 
A case can also be made that due to poor testing in the beginning of the pandemic it made it look like Covid was not spreading quickly. Making it seem that the lockdown restrictions were working.

I believe it was Worldmeter that had the total daily Covid cases and the total number of Covid test performed each day. The total test numbers were always very low until one day they quit reporting the test numbers. Not sure if they resumed reporting those numbers or not. 
All that to say not sure if we have enough information to say  one way or the other the effectiveness of the restrictions.  My guess is some level of effectiveness but not as much as people have been led to believe. 
i appreciate your comment, thanks.

 

[BlueSphinx]

10 hours ago, JJJ said:

To be fair, this response completely lacks logic or reason.
 

My OP quotes the definition precisely. The new quotes about immunity have nothing to do with the definition of endemic or endemicity. They are irrelevant to the question posed. Those are questions about when the endemic phase is reached, if ever.  

it appears the poster and Dr Yong lack basic definitional understandings and logical reasoning, which calls into question whether any statements should be relied upon at all.
 

Thanks, it is clear that dr Yong does not understand what 'endemic' means, and that he is confusing the issue by adding criteria that have nothing to do with it (like limiting endemicity to regional areas, or adding lethality or response measures to the issue).  

As I wrote > Dr Yong, the Master of Muddled Thinking has spoken again....

[BBY]

Be prepared for a long but educational listen.

[JJJ]

Again another nonsense reply. If you want to know the definition of something look for a keywords like “means.”  Think it starts from eight word in my original quote. 

The key point to being endemic is a relative stability even though it’s persistent.

And again Dr Yong’s original criticism that it doesn’t mean what you think it means still doesn’t make any sense either. Perhaps public health officials should speak with clarity, consistency, and admit past mistakes. But I guess that’s beneath the experts.  
 

8 hours ago, Stonker said:

Really? Where?

This is your original post in its entireity:

Maybe you could "quote the definition precisely" again, just so there's no confusion since there's clearly no definition in your OP !

The article gives a definition, but you don't and neither does your link.

Well ... yes ... there is no "definition of endemic or endemicity" in the article you linked to or your OP, only in the original Thaiger article, so I quoted the only part relevant to the Thaiger article, which were conditions that your link said had to be met before the pandemic could become endemic.