News Forum - Covid-19 infection rate, totals in international travellers surging

[Thaiger]

While the government suspended the Test & Go scheme in order to curb the spread of the Omicron variant last month, people who are already approved are still trickling in, and many have come as part of the Sandbox programme. Despite throttling the influx of international travellers, the number of Covid-19 infections brought in from abroad has been steadily rising, and the infection rate among those who arrive has sharply increased, with Russia leading the pack. In November when the government reopen the borders across Thailand to international travellers with 3 different entry schemes depending on country of origin and […]

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[DFPhuket]

It would be helpful to know the number of international arrivals testing positive upon landing versus those who tested positive on the day 5-7 test. For those testing positive on the second test, one could assume most caught it while in Thailand.

With 100% of the Sandbox and Test & Go's tested twice (plus one test before flying and they are all fully vaccinated), the "surge" may be more in the local (largely untested) population than in the internationals.  

[Michael0510]

The numbers include all positive tests of international travelers up to their 10th day of staying in Thailand.

That means, that these numbers include local infections of international travelers as well. They are not all ‘brought from abroad’.

That means, that these infected travelers were identified and sent to quarantine. They are not worsening the pandemic like locals do.

That means, that we are talking about positive tests. It depends on the tests if they are positive because someone is infected or if a part of a omicron virus was found without being infected. There are international recommendations about these tests and it’s likely, that Thailand doesn’t follow these recommendations anymore because some people want to see the number of positive tests rising.

[Michael0510]

  On 1/16/2022 at 7:10 AM, DFPhuket said:

It would be helpful to know the number of international arrivals testing positive upon landing versus those who tested positive on the day 5-7 test. For those testing positive on the second test, one could assume most caught it while in Thailand.

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That are the numbers reported a couple of days ago (Richard Barrow/Thai News):
 

[ace035]

  On 1/16/2022 at 7:10 AM, DFPhuket said:

It would be helpful to know the number of international arrivals testing positive upon landing versus those who tested positive on the day 5-7 test. For those testing positive on the second test, one could assume most caught it while in Thailand.

With 100% of the Sandbox and Test & Go's tested twice (plus one test before flying and they are all fully vaccinated), the "surge" may be more in the local (largely untested) population than in the internationals.  

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That's what I thought too that majority of the arrivals from Day 1 got positive for COVID-19. The one that I don't understand is testing positive on day 5-7, since they already in quarantine inside the AQ hotel unless you mention about the Test & Go in that case, they will get infected 90% of the time by going to the crowd.

[Wombo1]

The numbers for Russia are wrong.

Russia was not eligible for Test and Go, all people from Russia needed to go though Sandbox. Also I notice the same error from all countries in that region 

I tink they have all countries flipped in those to columns

[ThaiEyes]

All Rest and Go statistics should go away soon, no matter what port they arrive. Then it will likely be more clear about locally infected foreigners as opposed to “dirty” falangs who supposedly arrived with Covid. Also I saw a number of Thais in that chart who may not be tourists, but just returning and some are expats returning also I suspect. 
As far as the origin of infections is concerned, Thai authorities need to focus more on the locals than foreigners. All those new infections in Bangkok and Chon Buri, for example, are not all foreigners. 

[Pompies]

It should be no surprise that Russians are the most infected because they have been vaccinated with Sputnik which is only slightly more effective than the Chinese junk. Thailand should never have allowed them to come here because of this, and they are also proving to be the most irresponsible visitors when it comes to following the regulations. And frankly the numbers rekated to foreigners are pitifully small in comparison to those of native residents. Yet another attempt by the government PR machine to plant scare stories to make people feel threatened by the virus.

[Jason]

I get the feeling that within the not too distant future, Thailand will be accepting anyone, infected or not. so will other countries. In reality, people coming in, have been tested and vaccinated. medical science has nothing left to offer. If you're insured to cover the cost, to yourself and the host country, that is the best case scenario.

[Rob2010]

I arrived in Phuket late last night on the Sandbox.  Journey was awful, Newcastle - Amsterdam - Singapore - Phuket which I was expecting but the big surprise was the total lack of social distancing on flights. Both flights from Newcastle and ?Singapore were packed due to cancellation of earlier flights by airlines looking at profitability first and foremost. Even on Amsterdam to Singapore the airline structured seating iin blocks so although plan was only 3/4 full it felt much busier. It is very easy to see, having now done the trip, how testing positive after a few days might just as easily - likely more so - result from the trip as opposed to caught locally.

What amazed me most of all however, was how the best organised, most efficient, most friendly AND pragmatic operation BY FAR were the authorities and testing services at Phuket International Airport. Super slick processes - I managed to grab cash, breeze through passport control, grab luggage, have documents checked, register for and then receive PCR test and off within 20-25 minutes max. Had to wait about 15 minutes for car but gob-smacked at how good the operation was - neve seen inything like it in 30 years of coming to Thailand. Woke up late this morning and by the time i had showered and was ready I scanned the QR code and the results were available - 10.40.

One further point - my hotel in Phuket Town is surprisingly busy - all farangs - and I have been the only one other than local staff wearing a face mask. Everyone, myself included to be honest, has harped on at various stages about risks of infection being far more likely from locals than introduced by visitors. The last 24 hours have seen me change my opinion markedly.

[vvdb.fr]

the person took their test in their country of origin 24 to 72 hours before flying but was contaminated or was contaminated at the time of the test.

The person arrives at the airport in Thailand 36 or 86 hours after where she is tested positive due to the incubation time or a few days later...  For example on day 7 but she will have had time to contaminate all her local contacts.

We know that Omicron takes longer to infect than Delta... that the peak of is between day 6 and 9

[js89]

  On 1/16/2022 at 11:43 AM, vvdb.fr said:

We know that Omicron takes longer to infect than Delta... that the peak of is between day 6 and 9

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This is 100% incorrect. Omicron is already known to have a shorter incubation time than Delta

Just a cursory search reveals the following, referring to Omicron, from the CDC report: "...Whereas the median SARS-CoV-2 incubation period has been described as ≥5 days (2,3), and closer to 4 days for the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant, the median incubation period observed in this cluster was approximately 3 days"

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm705152e3.htm

[js89]

  On 1/16/2022 at 7:10 AM, DFPhuket said:

It would be helpful to know the number of international arrivals testing positive upon landing versus those who tested positive on the day 5-7 test. For those testing positive on the second test, one could assume most caught it while in Thailand.

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Anecdotally, I know numerous people in Bangkok in this situation. Quite a few of them know who they caught it from too...

[FTF020]

  On 1/16/2022 at 9:16 AM, Rob2010 said:

It is very easy to see, having now done the trip, how testing positive after a few days might just as easily - likely more so - result from the trip as opposed to caught locally.

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I very much agree. I think a lot of people will be relatively safe from covid at home, as well as in Thailand where you spend a lot of time outside and/or half-open bars and restaurants. But spending 10 hours in a tin can with recycled air (and busy airports) are exactly the kind of place where you will still catch covid.

[js89]

  On 1/16/2022 at 3:35 PM, FTF020 said:

 But spending 10 hours in a tin can with recycled air (and busy airports) are exactly the kind of place where you will still catch covid.

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While airports are probably not as good as your home, most travellers have been tested very recently and so likely have a lower incidence of covid infection that what you'd find in your local supermarket.

What's more, aircraft are also likely quite a bit safer than going to the supermarket as they have very high quality HEPA filters. 

About 40% of the air is recycled through the HEPA filters and 60% is piped in from outside. Cabin air is completely changed every three minutes on average while the aircraft is cruising. 

The following article gives a good insight into air quality on aircraft.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/travel/article/how-clean-is-the-air-on-your-airplane-coronavirus-cvd

[js89]

"Interestingly, the rate is lowest among those who did the Happy Quarantine programme, with a 2.05% infection rate. The Sandbox scheme and the Test & Go plan were similar in infection rates, with 3.74% and 3.57% respectively."

Why would this possibly be "interesting"? It's clear evidence that a large number of travellers are getting infected IN Thailand and not bringing it in, since the happy quarantine programme requires full isolation for 7 - 10 days, unlike the Test & Go or Sandbox schemes.

[FTF020]

  On 1/17/2022 at 10:55 AM, js89 said:

While airports are probably not as good as your home, most travellers have been tested very recently and so likely have a lower incidence of covid infection that what you'd find in your local supermarket.

What's more, aircraft are also likely quite a bit safer than going to the supermarket as they have very high quality HEPA filters. 

About 40% of the air is recycled through the HEPA filters and 60% is piped in from outside. Cabin air is completely changed every three minutes on average while the aircraft is cruising. 

The following article gives a good insight into air quality on aircraft.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/travel/article/how-clean-is-the-air-on-your-airplane-coronavirus-cvd

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Fair points about the recent testing and HEPA filters.

That said, you're still spending a lot of hours in larger crowds (of people from all over) than most people do in their daily life.